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Ok. We can agree to disagree. I did my own analysis, and I found that VXX moves after the fact (VXX will go up AFTER spy goes down, and vice versa). This is because of the rapid decay (contango) and the only time the contango effect is negated enough to make VXX's moves useful is when there is massive volume (like today). Massive trading volume counteracts the contango and in that situation, VXX's movements can precede SPY's. Without high volume the decay is so rapid that VXX will go down at the same time SPY goes down, as I pointed out the other day when VXX and SPY made a LOD at the same time.
If VXX was working right it should not help you predict 5 minute SPY candles. VXX's value is not tied to SPY's value or what SPY does. VXX moves according to option IV and as I have seen lately, the premium on options have been acting erratic which would make VXX erratic which would also make it not useful for ones trading.
VXX = useless contango decaying waste of time.
Everyone on here spouting about every 5 minute VXX candle is wasting their own time how many times a day do you talk about something VXX did or should do only for it not to pan out.
I see that. VXX still generally useless though. Only on huge down days does VXX's movements tell something.
I think that sometime this year the fed did something behind the scenes to stabilize the market and it has worked, volatility has decreased substantially. I remember in 2015 the wild swings we had. Now SPY is barely moving. Look at the bollinger bands. This is bad for option traders. Not for option writers though as you could have made a killing selling $220 calls then watch SPY chop around at $218 for a whole month. For option longs, this new environment makes it very tough to make money.
I haven't placed any new trades this week due to SPY being so choppy in such a narrow range. I expected $220 this week yet SPY has done nothing, just wasting time. I have some September 9th $219.50C from last week that will probably expire worthless tomorrow. I hope we get more volatility soon. I might look into writing options instead of buying them.
Another thing I don't get is - If people do want to trade VIX related etf's, trade UVXY. VXX barely moves. UVXY at least moves decently.
"VXX is very useful as it often twitches in a direction before SPY starts to move."
I'm about to go back through multiple days of 1 minute charts and find out of that is true.
What it is, is that I hate BS. In many aspects of life, people will believe something just because, when it is really not true.
God would be a good example. Not saying I believe there is one or not. It's just a good example of people believing something is true just because. Is there really a god though? that we cannot answer.
Traders believe VXX is actually useful and you can interpret it's movements, just because. Can you though? is that actually true or BS?
I'm about to do some in depth analysis. All throughout life I'm bothered by people blindly believing stuff that isn't true. I like to expose the real reality of things.
VXX $0.10 cent move on an SPY drop. Nice gains.
VXX is red right now with SPY red for the day, VXX not at HOD while SPY is making a new LOD. VXX has barely moved at all after a steep SPY drop. VXX is useless. Accept it.
Bulls in control, $220 tomorrow. Holding calls.
I understand what's happening with VXX. As time goes on and more reverse splits take place, the short term decay of VXX's value increases substantially. Every time there is a reverse split the decay increases. That makes it not so useful.
I'm curious to see what happens, VXX signaling that SPY is going higher, will it or is VXX useless.
When the market opened short term calls had lost more premium than usual, not sure why or what it means. I bought September 9th $219.50C for $0.38 yesterday at 3:00pm est when SPY was at $217.20. Today SPY gaps up and is a full $1.20 higher yet my calls are bidding $0.34. What gives? accounting for normal theta loss my calls should still be green. Disturbing. Hope this isn't some scam.
$220 today. Holding calls.
Buy to open September 9th $219.50C for $0.38. Gut feeling we have a rally tomorrow.
Sell to close @ $0.41.
Plunge Protection Team army defense zone @ $217.00
Buy to open September 2nd $218.00C for $0.46, 100 contracts. bailing fast if it doesn't hold $217.00. Looking to be in and out fast.
Yeah I expected $216.40 by now but they are propping up relentlessly, I'm now more expecting a bounce then continuing down.
It looks like they will not let it go under $217. If I were to make a trade right now I would buy $218C weekly for a daytrade.
Sell to close September 16th $218.00P @ $2.78 from $2.22. This drop is not playing out as I expected, I'm on the sidelines for now.
Large sell blocks going off, I'm holding puts overnight. $215 target for tomorrow. End of month sell off.
I think traders would be better off not trying to interpret every 5 minute VXX candle. People act as if VXX is supposed to be an inverse SPY ETF, which it is not. People claim to understand what VXX is yet I see numerous posts everyday such as "SPY just dropped but VXX is not moving! it's a scam!" "WHy isn't VXX going up?!?!". IMO VXX is reactionary and not useful for indicating what is about happen. It tells you what already happened not what's going to happen. So posts like "SPY dropping here but VXX not moving" and "VXX not buying this drop" are pointless. Don't even look at VXX while daytrading.
None, just a gut call.
When will people grasp that VXX does not move based on anything SPY does. VXX moves in response to option IV.
I'm forecasting a sell off tomorrow. Buy to open September 16th $218.00P for $2.22, 20 contracts. Swing trade.
Sell to close August 26th $220.00C at $0.48 from $0.27
There was 60K volume on September 2nd $222.00C yesterday and not nearly as much put volume. It appears we will grind higher for now.
Buy to open August 26th $220.00C for $0.27. Swing trade. projecting gap up and $220 on Monday.
Yeah....this is pure manipulation. Plain and simple. Bulls, Bears, everyone is complaining about how rigged this is. Someone or something wants the market to go higher here for whatever nefarious reason they have.
Blatant manipulation at $218.00.
The intraday chart was looking clearly bearish then they randomly ripped it higher, it's a trap to make people think it's going higher and suck in some longs, I speculate we close below $215.60.
HOD in IMO, gonna close near LOD.
Everyone bearish, I might try calls tomorrow. The consensus trade hasn't been the right trade the entire year.
Stalemate at 216. Not too confident in betting up or down from here.
Daily chart looks toppy. One would assume we start a leg down from here. 210 by end of week wouldn't be surprising.
This Turkey situation is not being resolved by Monday. I think that's a given. I also think it's a given that it will cause turbulence in the markets, which should lead SPX option implied volatility to rise, which means that if VXX's value is being calculated correctly under the specified rules, it should rise on Monday. That is of course unless the Turkey situation is of no concern to market participants. I don't see how such a large geopolitical crisis could be shrugged off.
VXX is either being manipulated into staying low or can't be properly valued unless the option market is open.
Buy to open UVXY August 19th $7.00C for $1.00, swing trade. I don't see this going much higher without a meaningful pullback first.
Fed buy program activated at 2:06pm EST to absorb the selling. 5 minute chart says it all.
Sell to close @ $0.96 from $0.82.