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JimisJim Petrobras
For an exploration that large, do you think they will use all their won rigs, or have to lease some? I'm guessing leased ones might be safer.
OT: Alternate energy
Bought PS WILDERHILL ENRGY (PBW) this morning. It is an alternate energy ETF. Top holding is Evergreen Solar.
OT dilleet - Santos
Petrobras announced 18 billion, 10 year offshore exploration program in the Santos basin.
Hope they are careful, I spent some teen years there and hundreds if not thousands of happy hours on the beaches of that lovely island.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh00945_2006-01-11_20-15-23_n11....
lango,
I didn't say the reaction was objectively over the top. I said my personal opinion was that it was. I am entitled to that personal opinion, stated as such. I did not label anyone.
Go back and read my freaking post, and act like you actually did and stop ascribing words to me that I did not express.
Ron
I understand it, and I think Apple's response will be important, but I still think it is much ado about very little. That is a personal opinion. Others can have other opinions.
Actually, I consider it a service :).
mini store and feedback
My personal opinion is that it is a little (or maybe a lot) over the top to call it spyware, but I am sure there will be a great outcry over it.
I assume that Google, for example, knows more details about my personal life than I do :).
Your mileage may vary.
I think it is perfectly good, if somewhat awkward nomenclature
I think it is a branding thing. Instead of Apple computers, we have Mac computers.
Mac brand
iPod brand
other brands to follow
AAPL players pleased as punch
This one is.
OT: It has been a magical 7 months during which all my investments have gone up, some substantially. While some of it is, without a doubt, luck, I also think that the many hours of reading etc...have served to make me a better investor. Here is to hoping the combination of luck and work continues to provide good results.
Ron
Enterprises aren't going to buy masses of machines
that cost much over $900 - for most purposes - with most of the software most of them need pre-installed.
Doesn't that sound about right to you enterprising folks out there?
Petrobras announced a multi-year, multi billion dollar program of oil and gas exploration in the Santos basin.
Oughta be positive for oil services. I suspect (but hope I am wrong) that it is ocean drilling. I lived on the island of Santos as a teenager and spent hundreds of happy hours on the beaches there.
UBS raises AAPL target to $100. eom
CHK
I was long, but sold it a short time ago to buy some more of those AAPL calls :). It is on the list. There is also an ETF, PBW - a green/alternative energy play that includes Evergreen solar as one of its top positions
Apple v. Apple
Not playing that. Don't think there is a very high probability of it materially affecting either Apple.
Earnings play
baldrick asked about an earnings play. I'm not sure that there is one, but there may be a next quarter play. Here is my thinking:
Apple may have Osborne'd the PowerMacs today. Think about it - if you needed some professional machines, would you buy G5 beasts today, or wait until the Intel ones came out - given the speed improvements mentioned for the iMac and MacBook Pro computers today.
I think you wouldn't buy them unless you could not live without them. Same for iBooks, though the iBook intel will likely be available before the PowerMac intel is.
If Apple runs a some more over the next couple of weeks, it may be a time to think about buying a few puts.
Does that sound reasonable to anyone?
I know guys at work who do spanning with a dell and two dell monitors. One guy showed it me, if I am remembering correctly.
MacBook Pro plus built in iSight
equals business teleconferencing on the road.
Brilliant selling point?
I suspect it could be.
Frank and Sexton
Thanks, I'll decline the guru tag, though :).
Now I have a wad of cash to try to invest wisely.
Anyone here follow Fording Canadian Coal Trust - FDG- a trust with interests in metallurgical coal and wollastonite - pays about a 15% divvy
Here is the profile
Fording Canadian Coal Trust operates as an open-ended mutual fund. It invests in metallurgical coal, industrial minerals mining, and processing operations. The Trust, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Fording, Inc., holds a 60% ownership of Elk Valley Coal Partnership and is the producer of the industrial mineral wollastonite. It also holds a 100% interest in NYCO. The Trust’s metallurgical coal operations process primarily metallurgical coal, principally for export. Its industrial minerals operations process wollastonite and other industrial minerals from two operations in the United States and one operation in Mexico. The primary product of its metallurgical coal operations is hard-coking coal. It owns Fording River, Coal Mountain, Elkview, Line Creek, Greenhills, and Cardinal River mines. Its principal markets are Asia and Europe. NYCO operates a mineral processing plant. Its processing facilities include dry processing equipment, a surface treatment plant, warehouse space, and truck and rail loadout facilities. The mining operation consists of the active Lewis Pit and the permitted Oak Hill deposit. As of December 31, 2004, the Trust’s total metallurgical reserves were 710 millions of tonnes and total thermal reserves were 3 million tonnes. Fording Canadian Coal Trust was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
baldrick
I dunno if there is a play on earnings. I am going to hold our long shares and wait, patiently, until another play with a level of risk I like appears. I doubt that will be before earnings.
louismsg
I sold all my AAPl calls in 4 batches today. They were Jan 75's and Feb 80's. Gonna keep all of our long shares. Awesome profit-taking dude!!
Spend it wisely :)
AAPL
before this morning our combined IRAs were 35% long AAPL shares and 20 % AAPL calls. Sold the calls in 4 batches today during the MacWorld keynote.
Its been my best day of profit taking ever. Have to eat lunch and catch my breath now.
iChat down here. Anyone else down? MacWorld related, perhaps? Can't imagine what would be happening to it that would be worthy of MW time.
On a normal day the content deals
Would move the stock - given big announcements, would probably move it in the 2-4% range. The SNL skits would probably move it a couple of percent.
Decisions, decisions. Hold all Jan 75's or sell some.
Never went broke taking a profit
No pain no gain
Pigs get slaughtered
Let winners run
Cliches just aren't much good here :). Think I'll hold all of them for a bit. Deferring decision on Feb 80 calls.
SNL skits on iTMS
That is a nice and hopeful start to Keynote Day. They will sell like hotcakes on a cold morning.
Good morning boys and girls
Got the pot of coffee made, Ms. Roni has her second cup back in the bed, communing with her cat, AAPL is down marginally in pre-market and I'm kind of ready for the day.
Yofie, on the iBook thingie - that would be good, but not sufficient :). As WmZ used to day - it wants more. Feed the beast.
Lango, I saw that follow up of O'Grady on the big ass plasma iMac-like media hub thing. While I have seen some mixed opinions about it - everything from yours to "If Apple goes into the TV business, it is time to sell". I agree with yours. It would be huge. A 42 inch media center machine - TV cum computer - for the roughly price as a large screen TV.
Would be the Mother of All One More Things. I am not excited about it, cause I think the likelihood is relatively low, but damn, man, it would create enough buzz energy to power NYC for a day or two.
Optimistic article from BW
Too much so? This is the last part of an article about Apple and Intel.
"A DRAFT EFFECT"? To win, Jobs is counting on Apple's famed design chops and reputation for making complex technologies appear deceptively simple. Analysts and rivals alike reckon he'll succeed to some degree, with many expecting Apple to double its PC market share to about 6% worldwide in the next year.
The real question is whether Apple's entry will help ignite a market where the PC plays a central role in the living room. Rather than lower prices on its Mac products to gain market share over rivals, Apple clearly is hoping it can deliver compelling, stylish products for which consumers are willing to pay a premium. "Right now, everybody is wondering if there will be a draft effect from Apple, or will there be a bloodbath," says Richard Doherty, principal analyst at Envisioneering Group.
Jobs already has experience with such a balancing act. He introduced the $99 iPod Shuffle a year ago, as well as several higher-priced iPods that came with fewer perks such as docks and carrying cases (see BW Online 11/01/05, "I Want My Video iPod"). That helped Apple cut costs and deliver new products, while generally maintaining margins.
BIG BITE COMING. Even in the PC market, Apple has had similar success. The dramatically lower-priced Mac mini drew raves from reviewers and analysts. Still, Apple generally gave the machines a lower profile in its stores and elsewhere, compared with its higher-margin notebook products and iMac desktops. That helped Apple maintain a higher average selling price even as it won kudos for delivering innovative, low-cost products, IDC's Shim says.
No doubt, Apple faces uncertainty about delivering enough software to take advantage of the new chip architecture. But any potential hiccups are likely to be resolved in short order (see "How Goes the Mactel Software?").
With the playing field leveled for the first time in Apple's history against its PC competitors, expect nothing less than for it to take a huge bite out of the market.
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2006/tc20060109_832565.htm
What are the retailers saying: CES 2006
• iPod Accessories Are the Rage. Retailers we spoke with have expanded their iPod and iPod accessories presence in stores over the past year. The accessories business yields gross margin north of 50% in several cases and companies like CompUSA have taken accessories shelf space from 8 feet a year ago to 24 feet. CompUSA only received 25% of the iPod nanos it ordered in the 4th quarter, while it had no problem procuring video iPods.
Good for earnings if people were upsold?
• Bullish on Vista. Retailers expect Vista to reach the marketplace in the fall, likely September, and there is an expectation that it will drive a nice upgrade cycle in PCs. CompUSA estimates that only 40%-50% of PCs sold in the most recent quarter can efficiently run Vista.
I see big opportunity here for OS X, to the extent that people consider upgrading home computers, there is a purchase decision. How many of those will be convinced to switch of OS X rather than buy a new, Vista capable box?
Sure hope Apple has a big advertising campaign planned. Makes intro of Intel Macs more pressing - I'm thinking it could be a good thing for Rev B to come out before Vista. That may be wishful thinking, but.......
info from a post on another board with not attribution or URL
Twas the night before MacWorld
and all through the house
not a creature was stirring
except the computer's mouse
Here's to a good day tomorrow. I have plenty of vacation time and decided to take the day off - see some of you in iChat land then
From another board - Bulls calling for $90
- Some bulls on Apple are betting that the shares will reach $90, after Apple introduces new iPod models at the annual Macworld Conference in San Francisco this week, and then reports what should be impressive sales for the December quarter. One such bull is Morgan Stanley's Rebecca Runkle, who expects Apple revenues to grow more than 40%, to $19.6 billion, in the current fiscal year ending September 2006, while earnings grow 34%, to $1.7 billion, or $1.89 a share (counting the expense of stock options). At 90 bucks a share, according to her forecast, Apple would be trading at 47-times earnings for fiscal '06.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22037108
Blue,
That was kind of annoying.
OT Matt
Get rid of that obnoxious flashing advertisement that keeps showing up on your site.
Thinksecret has a summary of pre-MW rumors
Gold back over 540 for the moment
Here is an article from ResourceInvestor on COTS, LCNS position, GLD adding 19 tons last week and other sorts on non-bearish items
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=15910
Build a rumor
I think we have enough clues to build a case for various things
.Mac down on the 10th all morning
iMacs that are basically media hubs now, except for TV / Cable tuner - with no need for a tower or box or anything in addition to the screen housing.
Front Row remote control
Mac Mini with an internal thingie that could easily sprout an iPod dock.
Video enabled iPods
iWeb
Moving to Intel chips. Otellini's speech at CES contained some pieces, did it not?
Cinema Displays in short supply
What other building blocks are out there that we know about?
What a nifty rumor construction kit, eh?
Differentiation
Apple needs buzz to differentiate itself. Needs CPU sales growth at more than double the industry rate - which may be more difficult if the predictions of business spending on technology in 2006 prove correct. Need a whole lot of halo effect.
The thing that most differentiates the platform at this time is the lack of virii and malware, IMO. It is tough to make that the major point of an advertising campaign, as that might attract nefarious geeks by the herd. I do not mean to downplay the OS and iApps by that assertion, but it is a key selling point when I talk to Windows users who are considering a switch, and a point many of them are not aware of.
Most of all, to continue the incredible run in share price, IMO, Apple needs two new consumer electronics products: 1) a media hub that easily connect to one's telly, displaying owned and streamed content on-screen easily; and 2) an iPhone with a phone network.
In the short term, a Mac-VIIV connection, with the content that has been reported to be available via VIIV and/or other blockbuster content announcements would be good :).
Investments in funds that track commodity indexes may surge 38 percent this year to $110 billion as money managers diversify their holdings, Barclays Capital said. Gold rose 18 percent in 2005, outpacing the 3 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the 2 percent return on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds.
``We're seeing an increasing amount of capital in the commodities market in general and gold in particular,'' said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001013&sid=aBu8WtnYAy8E&refer=commodity_futures
tomm, taking a post RDF dive
I wonder if AAPL will come under some pressure tomorrow - based on Friday afternoon's CES news.
I don't know, but will be watching with interest :).
MacWorld predictions
I think Steve will review the past year, give some info about how things are going, introduce some new software and content deals (calling up special guests) and then demo a couple of new hardware products.
Then he may do the One More Thing thing.
After that prognosticators will prognosticate
Hand wringers will wring
Analysts will go anal_lyze stuff
Upgraders will upgrade
People will say Wow
Other people will predict the demise of Apple
Other people will predict World Domination for Apple
iChatters will iChat
Traders will trade
and wonder how they want to be positioned for earnings.
Blue, OTOH, will be glad he held those shares bought about $70 ago.
Microsoft blocking MP3s on Verizon Wireless phones?
MSFT misbehaving again?
Microsoft blocking MP3s on Verizon Wireless phones?
Posted Jan 7th 2006 11:27AM by Barb Dybwad
Filed under: Cellphones, Portable Audio
So there seems to be some fallout from Verizon's music download service -- users who choose to "upgrade" their handsets to support the Verizon Wireless music store are doing so at a tradeoff: you'll no longer be able to play MP3s on your phone. The new phone software prevents you from playing MP3s on the phone as a result of an agreement Verizon Wireless made with Microsoft, the latter of whom stipulated that if the Verizon Wireless music store was gonna fly at all, MS wanted to make sure that phones using it could only play back Microsoft's audio format. Supposedly there is an internal memo floating around at VZW Wireless saying that if anyone complains about the new "featureset," they'll be given a refurbished phone with older firmware to "correct" the "problem" -- but that users aren't being warned ahead of time that they'll lose MP3 playing functionality by upgrading their phones. Very tricksy, guys, very tricksy! You know, if the customer didn't always come first with these big corps we'd really be in trouble, folks.
I answered your question about buying in my previous post. I would not advise an investor to buy long Apple shares at this point. Apple could run, Apple could fall.
You are, I think, wrong about the video enabled iPod, but the future will tell the story on that.
Like I said, I am comfortable with where I am. As Frank said about himself, I am not lucky, I am good. Damn good the last couple of years. Getting better with each passing year. We'll see if that holds for 2006. Am up 12.5% for 2006 so far.
Performance is what counts - everything else is just gum-flapping.
looser :)