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BTW, when asked about Ridaforolimus, sounded like Berger stumbled around answering questions about whats next for Ridaforolimus and didnt even mention endometrial cancers...all he said was breast cancer ie., their current Phase 2 trial...which is a long way from being completed.
"Liz made a strong case..."
Now truly ROTFLMAO.
I didn't know that hedge funds take their advice from Liz Clayman, former anchor woman on WHDH 7 in Boston. LOL
LOL. Interesting that you would call it a lame interview and researcher was calling it extraordinary...lmfao
has anyone actuallyasked berger about compassionate use with ponatinib or is this a message board pipedream.
Do you know which hedge fund it was? Please tell.
Well, DNDN gapped up around ten points on their presentation/news about their drug hitting the endpoint.
Either way, you had zero chance to cover anywhere in between something like 7 to 20.00.
I dont know, about that. i am fully with david on this.
for instance, if you were short DNDN based on Pantginis and Aschoff's recommendations at $2.00 (and bought CEGE like they told you to, LMFAO), you are still stuck with a stock that is trading ~$40, and could, in all theory, go to $200 someday. I wonder if there are still people that are short from the lower single digits based on the rationale that the stock might "come back" to them?
I do not short biotechs, other than possibly outright pump and dump financing schemes tha are blatantly short ideas...and those are only day trades.
can you even enter a clear "market order" pre or post major market open hours? I have only done so using a limit which my system only allows me to. It will reject market orders.
Yeah, its going to be interesting to see which asset managment firms are now listed as shareholders when the 13Fs come out in the next month. The way that it has moved up reminds me of when FMR was just buying and bidding ARIA up to a 14.98% position in the company.
Its a huge crapshoot but at a marketcap of ~$300 million, the reason I bought was because I am looking at DNDN at several billion marketcap. But then again, I was buying this pig below $50 million marketcap.
Have you followed the company or the drug much?
People either like it, or they dont. It reminds me of all the arguments against Provenge.
A pile of real sh:t there, thats for sure.
Genta, lol.
Thanks.
the phase 2b trial for Stimuvax was randomized versus placebo (after the original Phase 2 didnt meet the endpoint but still showed encouraging survival) and they intended from the beginning to stratify the subgroups for data readout. which amazes me that there are still people that continue to insist this was a post hoc and data mining analysis (sally church, who i admire a lot, tweets the other day it was post hoc and entirely wrong)
i am sure you already know all this...
either way, have you given much thought to the outcome of the START trial? i would be interested in your thoughts since you pegged Provenge.
thx
Two companies that stand out in the "illusion" category of completely bullshitting investors over and over and over again are Opexa and Northwest Biotheraputics. Opexa is a downright joke, their press releases have contained the same crap on the same trial for like 10 years now. Northwest Bio shows survival curves versus a historical control group in their presentatios...lol.
If you do a post hoc analysis of a Phase 2 study in which the trial failed the primary endpoint, and find a subset that works, and then run a Phase 2b trial on that subset on, say, 100 patients, and the Phase 2b study confirms the drug is highly active in the subset, is that still an "illusion" or is this still merely considered post hoc, or, does the Phase 2b show results worthy of going forward, in your opinion?
TIA
what i am getting at is the Stimuvax trials...
Do a search on Google for "will be in charge of marketing strategy for ridaforolimus".
http://www.google.com/search?q=will+be+in+charge+of+marketing+strategy+for+ridaforolimus&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a#q=will+be+in+charge+of+marketing+strategy+for+ridaforolimus&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=QVV&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&prmd=ivns&ei=aKYgToDrO4TogQemkezjBQ&start=20&sa=N&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=804c136e9e03bc4a&biw=1024&bih=608
Top of Page 3. currentagreements.com (PDF)
Just something a legal minded person who loves contracts might be interested in...that's all.
If you bothered to look at it, it was a "CurrentAgreement" document of the entire Collaborative Contract between Merck and Ariad
LOL, the frustration is building which only means one thing: Merck will probably submit the NDA on Monday.
LOL, meet me at The Lobster Pot in P-Town for a pineapple mojito and New England Clam Bake.
The Ridaforolimus program, as I said earlier this month when I gave my personal valuation of the programs, is honestly worth no more than $6.00/share IMO. I haven't looked entirely at the JEFF report, but what did they value Rida at 4-5?
Basically, without Ponatinib, this is an extremely unattractive company. However, analysts are giving little value (if any) in their models to 113. Which is good, for those who have a much longer term view.
I for one am really looking forward to following patients on 113
Yes, perhaps, but, I mean, WTF. Disclose it. Hopefully Berger has some colour on this issue in a couple of weeks.
They should have already started a ENDO trial by now unless they don't have a clue on where they are going with it.
Regardless, where the fk is the NDA?
These are all good reasons, in my mind, and likely in Bergers, where he will never in a million years give up development rights to another company.
BTW, Afinitor seems to have no problems plowing through all sorts of indications without side effects. I think Merck are clueless about which direction to go in...I really do.
They (MRK) are morons. Think about it. How long does putting together paperwork actually take? Do they have to pass it through 70 different executive committees who each need to perform a grammar check before they submit it? It explains why they have a garbage oncology program - they're complete newbies.
These morons in D.C. need to do something this weekend and complete it.
The volumes in the market have been extraordinarily low. Trading desks are doing dick for business. Portfolio managers aren't willing to put more risk into the market ahead of August 2.
If they can actually do something (for once) in D.C., it will add a lot of confidence to the US markets considering how poor of an investment the rest of the world is (unless you plan on putting all your money into gold assets).
An event like that will IMO be a bigger catalyst for getting into ARIA than something like an NDA filing (which at this point looks like its never going to happen bc we have the worst partner in all of biotech).
When I start saying how much I love this stock it's time to sell.
I was calling this a PIG at $8.
You better hope that I don't STOP calling it a PIG.
You got 12.50. did you sell?
They should just call it DinoTOR because by the time they actually get it approved they'll be better drugs out there....
Maybe that's the problem with Ariad's Ridaforolimus and the "sweet" zero pace of Merck's NDA filing... Merck can't figure out a brand name and every single one they choose sounds too much like Afinitor. Merck's executives probably established a 50 person blue ribbon panel to choose a name which has to go through several different committees.
>:O(
This pig is rolling over
time to revist the EMA 20 down at 11.43
This morning..
Anyone see this?
BRIEF-RESEARCH ALERT-Jefferies raises Ariad Pharmaceuticals price target
* Jefferies raises Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc <ARIA.O> price target to $16 from
$11; rating buy
Good. Post that on every single stock message board on Yahoo and Ihub, so I can dump this pig.
I am quite surprised a large pharma company has not bought EXEL yet, just because of the amount of drugs they have in development that seem to be in limbo. A company with a real garbage oncology division like Merck could add a ton of drugs to it by buying EXEL... but then again, the drugs arent worth much if they are simply mee too.
Is there honestly anything good about these drugs...any of them? it seems like they have nothing great in development...certainly not anything that is better than the competition. The closest thing they have to phase 3 ..other than cabo..is their pi3k drug. and it seems like everyones already got one of those in later stae phase two.
I dont know. I cant remember what was said previously on their other compounds with BMS.
Heres their pipeline...
http://www.exelixis.com/pipeline/out-licensed-compounds
IMO, their entire line of drug development looks like nothing but me-too compounds that are far behind the competition. Seems like they pumped out a bunch of drugs that showed so so efficacy and are now just chillin in the bowels of phase one development while the competition is bypassing them quickly.
they have XL228 which is in trials for CML and targets same path as Ponatinib. I dont know if they stopped development of that compound, but thats just another example of a me too compound that IMO is worthless in that indication now.
Opens down 10%.
woops. I don't own it, but was that expected?
I'm just throwing 10 million shares out there as an even number. Just remember, this thing is already a bloated pig at 130 + outstanding shares right now. For all I know, The Harv is holding out for $15+ to do another offering. I guess we should all be happy he hasn't done one even at $12 because it shows either (1) something is going on in business development or (2) he thinks its going much higher.
EXEL: Termination of Collaboration Agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company for XL281
B-RAF inhibitor...
On July 8, 2011, Exelixis, Inc. and one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries (collectively, the “Company”) received written notification from Bristol-Myers Squibb Company of its decision to terminate the Amended and Restated Collaboration Agreement dated as of April 15, 2011 by and between the Company and Bristol-Myers Squibb, which amended and restated the Collaboration Agreement dated as of December 11, 2008 between Exelixis and Bristol-Myers Squibb (the “Agreement”), on a worldwide basis as to XL281. The termination is being made pursuant to the terms of the Agreement and will be effective as of the end of the day on October 8, 2011. Bristol-Myers Squibb informed the Company that the termination was based upon Bristol-Myers Squibb’s review of XL281 in the context of Bristol-Myers Squibb’s overall research and development priorities and pipeline products. Upon the effectiveness of the termination, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s license relating to XL281 will terminate and rights to XL281 will revert to the Company, and the Company will be entitled to receive, subject to certain terms and conditions, licenses from Bristol-Myers Squibb to research, develop and commercialize XL281. The Company plans to wind down ongoing activities related to XL281 following the termination and does not currently expect to further research, develop or commercialize XL281 following the wind-down.
Under the Agreement, the Company and Bristol-Myers Squibb originally had agreed to co-develop cabozantinib and Bristol-Myers Squibb also received an exclusive worldwide license to develop and commercialize XL281. On June 18, 2010, the Company received a notice from Bristol-Myers Squibb of its decision to terminate the Agreement solely as to cabozantinib, on a worldwide basis, pursuant to the terms of the Agreement. The Company continued to carry out certain clinical trials of XL281 under the Agreement, and Bristol-Myers Squibb was responsible for funding all future development of XL281, including the Company’s activities. The Company was eligible for development and regulatory milestones of up to $315.0 million on XL281, sales performance milestones of up to $150.0 million and double-digit royalties on worldwide sales of XL281.
For purposes of recognizing up-front license fees received under the Agreement, prior to receiving the notification the Company was recognizing revenue through April 2014. As a result of the termination, the estimated research term will now end as of the end of the day on October 8, 2011. Accordingly, the Company expects to accelerate the remaining deferred revenue balance and estimates that it will recognize an aggregate of approximately $109.9 million and $10.4 million in revenue in the third and fourth fiscal quarters of 2011, respectively, relating to the up-front license fees under the Agreement.
In addition to the Agreement, the Company and Bristol-Myers Squibb are parties to the following:
• a collaboration agreement for the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapies targeted against LXR, a nuclear hormone receptor implicated in a variety of cardiovascular and metabolic disorders, originally entered into in December 2005 and amended and restated as of April 15, 2011;
• a worldwide collaboration to discover, develop and commercialize novel targeted therapies for the treatment of cancer, originally entered into in December 2006 and amended in October 2010 to: (1) provide an exclusive license to Bristol-Myers Squibb of commercial and development rights and responsibilities to XL139, a Hedgehog inhibitor; (2) end the research term under the collaboration; and (3) terminate the Company’s responsibility for conducting research activities or funding new development or commercialization activities under the collaboration, and amended and restated as of April 15, 2011;
• a global license agreement pursuant to which the Company granted to Bristol-Myers Squibb a license to its small-molecule TGR5 agonist program, including rights to the program’s lead compound, XL475, as well as potential backups, originally entered into in October 2010 and amended and restated as of April 15, 2011; and
• a worldwide collaboration pursuant to which each party granted to the other certain intellectual property licenses to enable the parties to discover, optimize and characterize ROR antagonists that may subsequently be developed and commercialized by Bristol-Myers Squibb, originally entered into in October 2010 and amended and restated as of April 15, 2011.
$120 million would take a lot of "worrying" about financing for the future trials out of the equation and put this company in a position of strength I don't think it ever has been in.
I am really not sure (and quite surprised) there hasn't been a financing yet around here. Either (1) The Harv thinks it's going much higher or (2) there's news pending or (3) Ponatinib EX-US deal is pending. IMHO
U.S. FDA ADVISORY PANEL VOTES 10-0 FOR ACCELERATED APPROVAL FOR SEATTLE GENETICS INC <SGEN.O> CANCER DRUG FOR HODGKINS LYMPHOMA
U.S. FDA ADVISORY PANEL RECOMMENDS LABEL SHOW SEATTLE GENETICS DRUG MEANT FOR HODGKINS PATIENTS AFTER STEM CELL TRANSPLANT