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Thanks for taking time to talk to the company.
Shorting prior to financing (even way back) doesn't pan out when you consider the current short interest. The short interest did not go up dramatically from last 4Q'07 to 1Q'08. So I still have benefit of doubt, in that they are just theories.
Now the real question, do they have enough ammo to last them until P2 DIC results come out (assuming no partnership until then). At the least I hope they will clarify this on 2/13
Next wednesday, Dr cox should talk about
1. Reason to sell paper this cheap
2. Partnership talks - no news will be bad news
3. P2 DIC trial progress
4. Lastly how they plan to get pps > 1 to avoid going into pink sheets
He has lot of explanation to do.
The important question is how much time they have with $6m bucks.
I still think GTCB has good potential simply from the standpoint of the new institutional investor. Why would anyone want to invest $6M if they don't see GTCB not surviving ? I have heard theories of investor shorting before hand and covering the short by taking the private placement. However in this case, there was not enough room to short all those shares.
Oh, well, we will know on 2/13
Can we expect to hear pricing/revnue in Europe for Atryn on 2/13 ? Hopefully management will share some such news.
Also I think the key words shareholders would be interested to hear is how well the so-called partnership talks are progressing...
If there is no mention (very unlikely but neverthless) regarding partnership status on 2/13, we will see south of 0.50
I think based on event today, GTCB.OB is inevitable..
The BOD are just career street crooks drawing 6 figure salary until retirement....take Nuvello as an example.
Could anybody sue GTCB if no partnership is announced by 1Q '08 ? This is what they have claimed in PR's that they will do; so would it not be construed as a misleading statement from the company ?
My take at this point, there will be NO meaningful partnership announcement anytime soon (not until DIC results are out which would be atleast 1 year+).
Nobody wants a piece of GTCB for ATRYN HD or for its patents.
So very likely GTCB will slide into pink sheet. I bet whoever gave away $6 million will use it to right off as 2008 tax loss in big scheme of things.
Looks lile the 11 idiots on the board cannot still figure out how to run a biotech that's in early stages.
I am amazed..with P3 results out, why no followup from the funds yet ? Or for that matter, no report from Analyst.
May be both will come after Feb 13th...
I would be interested to see analysts comments tomorrow (if any).
It's time, they come out of the woodwork
while your thesis has merit, you forgot to include VOLUME
Most of the GTCB followers are not sitting on couple of hundred shares..rather in thousands hoping for 3x to 5x return on short term basis.
On the other hand, 50K shares on ZGEN is not a small potato.
So strictly on a point move, GTCB has better return than ZGEN based on volume alone
From what I have read so far, cultivating transgenic herd to produce theraupetic proteins takes long time. The flip side of it is these proteins can be mass produced and if the market for them is big (which it is), the company can make great deal of money.
I am for one, looking for 2009 end to have GTCB pps >$10 (all based on ongoing partnerships and pipeline progress).
FWIW...
3. “the "delay" does not bode well for what the company is going to release…”
-> Insiders are already telling their distant cousins to get out.
.....LOL, the phrase is getting famous
It's likely to be by end of this week (IMHO).
Definitely looks like more longs with deep pockets are jumping in finally...hope it's funds
It's no secret the street is full of crooks. In context of Biotech coompanies, I have seen it again & again...whether it is heavy options trading just before a major news (example Nuvello) or volume spikes, it always mean one thing...bad or good news is on the horizon depending on which direction the PPS moves.
The next stop is closer to partnership announcements & we should see the telltale signs on the volume.
Yesterday's buys tells me somebody knew something & it got to be good
Based on the correlation of volume spikes with jump in intra-price today, definitely looks somebody loaded up big today. This in turn means only one thing...top line HD trial results (as expected anyway) is all GREEN.
However as the positive trial results are kind of foregone conclusion anyway, I suspect 'distant cousins' of potential partners are loading up.
Talk about similing pigs..
Comment from Dr. Cox clearly shows the upcoming topline results on Atryn for HD indication is a done deal.
Now only I hope the potential partners 'distant cousins' pick up these cheap shares before the cat is out of the bag, as to speak.
Cannot help going over & over again on this study..great promise for GTCB's on-going P2 DIC trial
An animal model of gram-positive septicemia was developed to evaluate the effects of antithrombin (AT) concentrates on morbidity, mortality, and laboratory consequences of disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). DIC was induced in guinea pigs by infusing Staphylococcus aureus (SA) isolated from blood cultures of patients with DIC (DIC-SA) or without DIC (non-DIC-SA). The non-DIC-SA animals and animals infused with sterile saline served as controls. Varying doses of AT were administered either 30 minutes or 24 hours after infusion of SA. DIC was confirmed within 4 hours by changes in prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, fibrinogen, fibrinogen-fibrin degradation products, and AT activity. Clinical bleeding was also evident. Mortality of untreated DIC-SA animals was 36% within 24 hours and up to 75% by 72 hours. Intervention with any dose of AT between 125 and 1,000 IU/kg 30 minutes after DIC-SA infusion was associated with 100% survival (P < or = .05 in the 250 IU/kg group) and sustained increases in AT activity and fibrinogen concentrations (P < or = .05). When AT was administered in combination with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) or if LMWH was adminstered alone, mortality from DIC-SA was slightly, but not significantly reduced compared with untreated DIC-SA. Gross hemorrhage was observed premortem and at autopsy in all of the DIC-SA animals but in substantially fewer animals that received AT (P < or = .001 in the 250, 500, and 1,000 IU/kg groups). In contrast, groups treated with LMWH, alone or with AT, experienced hemorrhage and appeared to develop pathologic DIC. Fibrin formation in end-organs was detected in all guinea pigs in the untreated DIC-SA group and in the groups treated with 125 IU/kg AT and LMWH alone. AT doses between 250 and 1,000 IU/kg administered 30 minutes after DIC-SA infusion prevented fibrin formation in end-organs (P < or = .001 in the 250 and 1,000 IU/kg groups). AT administered 24 hours after DIC-SA could not reverse pre-existing histopathologic evidence of DIC but favorably affected survival, which reached statistical significance in the 1,000 IU/kg AT group (P < or = .025). In summary, suprapharmacologic doses of AT concentrate significantly decreased morbidity and mortality and ameliorated adverse changes in laboratory measures induced by DIC-SA in this guinea pig model and were not associated with untoward hemorrhagic complications. These findings provide justification for studying the use of AT therapy in patients with DIC-SA.
Link is below:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9192763?ordinalpos=18&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum
I am too leaning towards HSP for US partnership after seeing this report:
http://www.drugdeliverytech-online.com/drugdelivery/200704/?pg=48
Protein pipeline based on Goat transgenic model squarely fits GTC
My 2cents...I am plain dumbfounded on not seeing higher pps by now (atleast north of $1) when everything is going to be fine which is likely.
I am not sure why big institutions/funds are letting pps slide this far south especially the results are going to be out soon and will be positive.
On the partnership side, any potential pharma would be looking into long term viability/potential of transgenic platforms/GTC's patents etc. for sure. So again not sure why any such partner is not seeing value yet.
For me this is the biggest mystery for 2008
I thought thru conventional breeding, it is not 100% guarrantee that the offspring will always express the transgenic genes even if the parents are transgenic.
Also the other reason that would make it less expensive for GTCB is, it should be easier to clone a already transgenic goat rather than raise a new transgenic offspring that has genes corectly expressed.
Hopefully we could see more insider buys today
I continue to be puzzled by recent price action on the downside.
On the 3Q CC, the management indicated discussions are progressing well and that we can expect the partnership to be announced shortly.
Hard to imagine there is no fly on the wall to take advantage of such impending news.
voila..GTCB indeed is presenting on the BIO CEO & Investor's Conference in Feb 11-13 '08.
http://ceo.bio.org/opencms/ceo/2008/program/PresentingCompaniesList.jsp
Saw several posts attributing to Tax selling to explain the downward pressure on the PPS. However with major news coming by end of January, it doesn't make sense for tax loss as the stock may not be bought back within 30 days.
At this point, I only see a strong positive message being sent by insider purchases that all is well in the Goats land.
It will be interesting to see if any post-jan '08 investor presentation shows up on next year schedule which would mean more upbeat mood within the GTCB management.
My apology...thanks for the correction
The $3 question is would FDA for any reason NOT approve Atryn for HD while it is approved in Europe ?
It is very very unlikely the fact that LFB has already started to market and we haven't seen any news whatsover on negative side in Europe.
It would be nice to get some sales numbers or news to that affect from LFB, though
Just came across this article that talks about Transgenic Animals and Plants in Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturing.
(http://www.kaloramainformation.com/prod-toc/Transgenic-Animals-Plants-1186400/)
Chapter Seven lists bunch of companies & their transgenic profiles.
Possible partnership candidates ? (If AMGEN brought Abgenix for their Xenomouse technology for anti-body therapeutic product development, would they be interested in GTCB as well ?)
If FDA have granted orphan-drug status to Atryn, would it not mean positive top line results more likely ?
It would be silly for FDA to grant such status on the same month when the topline results are expected if they have thought otherwise.
I don't think the timing is coincidental
What I don't understand, is with some of the good news baked in (including 50% on european profits), why the analysts have not increased their revenue forecast & pps yet ?
These idiots keep saying, every news is a POSITIVE development for GTCB but they cannot translate that to tangible forecast.
Street usually can smell a winner few quarters away especially if they think the model has bright future. For some reason, they are not which once again translates (I suspect) to same perception on behalf of big pharmas for any partnership.
Let's hope Dr. Gray can convince otherwise
Hope next round of good news will keep the PPS above $2..
I really didn't want to come across as christmas grinch but nothing happened after Dr. Lawton came along who was specifically was recruited for Business Development.
Now we have Dr. Gray that we have yet to see what she can do to GTCB with her unimpressive associations with other companies (regardless of what might have happened).
Well, 3 more weeks to go for the 2007 sunset and hoping for the best.
Dr Gray's stint as director on board with other companies doesn't show anything spectacular, on the contrary..ugly charts for both.
She is on TELK since 2003
http://quote.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TELK&t=5y
She is on DYAX since 2004
http://quote.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DYAX&t=5y
Dr Gray on Telik's board (now on GTC as well) doesn't sound too positive atleast for that company..
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/06/06/is-telik-insane.aspx
I have a feeling this stock is going nowhere regardless of top line and/or with partnership or not. Going into December and still no news so far makes me think the partnership will be heavily back end loaded with profits going into partnering coffers if DIC trials turn to be positive.
GTCB and LFB is one such deal where LFB has upper hand with GTCB getting pennies on a dollar.
What's is to say this won't happen with US Partner ?
Meanwhile GTCB is stacking directors on their board like a sub-way sandwitch with nothing to convince even the 3rd tier wallstreet firms to put a simple 'buy' recommendation, so close to the 'NEWS'
Bit confusing from today's press release..
"ProGenetics will be responsible for the production of the proteins in the milk of their transgenic pigs. GTC will be responsible for manufacturing, clinical development, regulatory affairs, and commercialization activities in its territories"
Does this mean production platform is going to be both pigs and goats for these proteins ?
It could be that potential US partner though primarily might be interested for DIC indication (& huge market), might want to wait to see the top line results out of HD trials of ATRYN in US.
This makes me wonder that likely we will have the topline results before the partnership is announced.
Dew, Thanks for the clarification. All the more this validates and now infact makes it interesting for the partnership deal here at US for HD indication alone, where GTCB should have much better share in the profits.