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iTrend....1 & 1/2 days to go....
http://www.itrendsoft.com/itrend.htm
that's me and my friend together, yeah, about that size. But I will hold on a few days hoping to get out even, at least.
I agree, I will wait untill friday, if they won't keep their promise on iTrend by then I think I will sell my position. What puzzles me is that...how can I sell it without sinking it?
It's not the fact that they're selling shares in order to raise capital to fund operations, what I don't like is that they only have 2 more days in order to miss their deadline for iTrend, the fact that they said they were going to buy-back shares, and the fact that they said that they were reviewing 2006 accounting in order to be listed again in the OTC. Noone of these thing seem to have happened yet, am I wrong?
iTrend...two more days...and they missed the deadline:
http://www.itrendsoft.com/itrend.htm
it's still unchanged...what's up?
working on what?
They have 5 business days left in order to be on schedule, other than that they failed to meet the schedule, pure and simple. If they fail to be trustful on the schedule, then I would start to be very worried.
Itrend website doing well...
http://www.itrendsoft.com/
believed it? It's unchanged, I don't see anything new, and only a few days untill october expires...
more than that I see more dilution today...looking any day worse in here...
Unless the next PR is used for further dilution, just like the last one seemed to be...on that day and the day before it seems that they unloaded those 130M shares.
19 days to go...
http://www.itrendsoft.com/itrend.htm
will this be like the OTC BB listing?!?
You must be dreaming...
O/S as far as we know, is at 560M. At 0,5 this would have a market cap of 280M...you're simply dreaming if you think that these business could have the stock capitalize 280M...
I am hoping it will ever have a market cap of 10 to 15M, which sounds reasonable, unless you expect that they would:
1) Actually generate all of the revenues they claim they will;
2) Generate that revenues at a profit;
3) Profit enough to capitalize above 15M.
You sound to me so optimistic that sounds not credible.
Anyone knows something more about the buy-back programme? Anyone asked via email? How much does ICBS has in cash?
isn't text crossed with images at the bottom of the homepage?
Take this example:
http://www.canadianbiomed.com/
they didn't even realize yet that the web page is badly written in the lower part as it crosses the images...
I don't know why they didn't reply, perhaps I asked too difficult questions on O/S, OTC listing and websites that don't look too nice. Anyhow, the trading platform seems to me still far away, might be an impression. Also, I wonder why they would have turned down an offer for 3.5M for the brewery, given that they could have bought back so many shares with that money.
Also, where did ICBS get all of the money in order to participate in these companies.
And most of all: why do the websites seem designed by the same hand? How is it possible that different companies have same web designer? Uhm...!
Volume is drying up...2 days ago it traded 70M shares. It's amazing how low this stock has in market cap, but I am still skeptic about the business and the fact that they didn't reply my email yet.
Also, they wanted to move to the OTC BB in Q2 07...why haven't they done it yet?
I am long with 10M shares, but thinking about selling soon.
no I did it myself, when they will reach you you can ask them if anything was spelled properly.
in the meanwhile that you think about what I mean, I will report your post to the SEC for containing enormous false information.
Have fun.
why are you so ridicolous?
DOV has 1.77$ cash per share? That's not their money, that's the money the debenture holders gave them and not they might ask it back, noone knows. Management has been buying stock? They can't during the reorganization due to insider trading restrictions.
But the one thing you posted that I loved more was this:
"on 7 December 2006, DOVP.PK announced that Merck had given up on DOV Patents as a business decision after the poor clinical trial results on radiating leg pain reported this summer. Curiously, DOVP.PK stock went up. A week later we found out why. DOV Pharm announced better patent royalty agreements with Wyeth."
of course you have no idea on what you're talking about and don't even took your time so understand that "trial results on radiating leg pain" was associated with bicifadine results, and that the Merck partnerships was for dov 21,947 and dov 216,303, mostly targeting depression and anxiety disorders.
Kid...
I think you live in a different world as your messages, sorry to say this, are absolutely non-sense.
1) Who doesn't want dilution? Debenture holders? They couldn't care less, they want the most out their position of strenght.
2) January 3-4? January 2nd is the deadline, so within the deadline they have to come up with something or announce Ch.11.
Perhaps you might look more credible if you structure your thoughts, so far so poor, sorry.
Chistmas Thoughts
well, I know it's Christmas, but still had some thoughts that I wanted to share.
Was thinking about CORT and ICGN, that traded well below 1$ per share and still were able to raise money via stock offering. I mean...CORT and ICGN, go check the pipeline and tell me: if they were able to raise money through stock offering, why wasn't DOVP able to do the same? What went wrong?
Other than that there are 4 business days left to either announce a major partnership (the way Exelixis structured his one would be the best for the re-uptake drugs) or to announce a deal with debenture holders, before being forced into Ch.11. Usually when Ch.11 needs to be short, investment banks are hired long before and a deal (even a deal against shareholders) is announced quite some time before declaring Ch.11. It's working kinda different in here and it's hard to figure out why. I've done some modeling and I am still 99% convinced that if the Company gets into Ch.11 it might be dead for anyone in the medium term, either for current shareholders or for perspective shareholders (that's a personal point of view, of course). The cash burned in Ch.11 would be a real kill from any point of view, and it would take months to reshape the Company for the investment community. Plus the time lost for possible lucrative partnerships could well play against the recent biotech frenzy time.
So I somehow came up with the idea, reinforcing my initial thoughts, that a deal could still be striken before Jan. the 2nd, which is what most of current shareholders are hoping for. Luckily enough (for those who might be hiddenly accumulating), the deadline comes in just as the last days for tax selling approach.
Still if I try to evaluate the Company as for potential partnership deals, it's hard NOT to think that the Company could get as much as $ 120M in upfront payments by licensing all of its compounds in clinical stages, since in my opinion it could at least get:
15M out of DOV 102,677 for a.a. indication only;
35M out of DOV 21,947 and DOV 216,303 (same as Merck, though IMO they would rather split the two agreements now);
25M out of DOV Diltiazem;
45M out of Bicifadine for Chronic and Acute indications.
(The indication for OA or in any combination with ibuprofen remains a big if with much potential, though).
I believe these estimates might be conservative given the recent biotech frenzy, but they are also biased by the fact that DOVP possibly can't negotiate right now in a position of strenght since its liquidity problems.
Don't know why but 'till some days ago I thought DOVP could have partnered DOV 102,677 and DOV 21,947 together and then would have sold DOV 216,303 back to Merck, but then I kind of realized that Merck hasn't been very active with DOV 216,303 lately, so I am not too convinced of this either. Thoughts on this are welcomed.
Please note that it's quite a long time that DOVP doesnt' issue PR's, such as:
- final results of the bicifadine PII in OA;
- their meeting with the FDA for the scope and design of final bicifadine trials;
this makes me think and hope that perhaps they will issue a press release altogether when a final deal will be reached. But it puzzles me that they felt they need to put the very small details in place as for the original deal with Wyeth. I believe it all lies in here:
"DOV has the right to develop products incorporating the three compounds for the treatment of human diseases, disorders and conditions except for treatment of vasomotor symptoms in certain areas of women's health."
It seems to me that this gives public clarification on what you can and can't do with DOV 216,303 , ocinaplon and bicifadine. If they felt the need to seek clarification, perhaps someone asked for clarification on certain compounds' indications...it does make sense doesn't it?
Surely enough, there will be 4 long business days ahead for investors.
Anyhow these are just a few random thoughts, they are not a suggestion to buy or sell the stock, so please do your own research before making a decision.
Have you noticed?
DOVP submitted a plan on October the 19th in order to re-comply with listing criteria as for 50M in market cap. That obviously meant they had to increase book value in order to eliminate the negative shareholder's equity and thus had for sure (IMO) to sell the drugs or some of them in order to raise cash and thus meeting the criteria.
They were supposed - under the plan - to re-comply within 30 to 60 days and that meant the 19th of december. They got delisted but - pretty strange to me - by today Dec. the 22nd they haven't sold any of the drugs or announced any partnerships as of yet.
What's up?
which friday?
There's not a correct story, there's a company out there that has a very strong pipeline. It's a company that wanted to settle things straight out before concluding any kind of partnership, as this was mandatory in order to assess all risks.
This is a company that started a series of initiatives in order to raise cash, and that now could seek partners for:
1) Dov 21,947;
2) Dov 102,677;
3) Dov 216,303;
4) Dov Diltiazem;
5) Bicifadine.
If Dovp would have had the time in order to settle things well, they could have raised at least 125M in upfront payments for these drugs, problem is that they are time constrain as there are only 6 business days left before they have to declare BK. Hopefully they might be able to partner Dov 21,947 or to sell Dov 216,303 back to Merck with a revisited deal.
All we have to do is to wait and see, I don't think debenture holders would like this stock into BK as in the biotech world time is cash so they need to avoid Ch.11. Time will tell.
you are wrong.
The way I see that is just as a clarification about the drugs mentioned. They need to publicly clarify what all goes on among those drugs othernot they would withold some information to investors, partners and shareholders. So nothing really to worry about, it is just that things are clear now as for those drugs for potential partners to sign agreements.
you don't forget that when they hire investment bankings to advise for debt restructuring, it "sometimes" turns up to bk or debt for equity swap anyway. I am some kind of optimistic in here, but take a look at NTL before it went into Ch.11...they hired many companies for advising in restructuring efforts.
They still have 8 days left...it's not much, but I do believe there's something going on for Dov 21,947 and Dov 216,303 in the very next days.
Payment default will come in if they ain't able to raise 50M in the next 8 business days. I say 50M because in my own estimates DOVP will finish the quarter with approx 37M in cash and they would need 17M in order to fund the 2 next quarters and to raise cash with other partnerships in order to do that.
Actually, though timing is ticking out, there are a whole lot of potential in order to raise those 50M now, and there's much more now than 1 week before, and I'll tell you why (weird the article posted didn't really examine all of the potentials out there).
1) Dov 21,947 is now in full control of DOVP, which can now seek broak partnerships for the compound;
2) Merck called the deal off also for DOV 216,303. IMO they did so just because the original agreement wasn't really worth it anymore without DOV 21,947, so perhaps I do not exclude that they called the deal off and that DOVP will now sell/partner back the drug to them in a different agreement. If we split the agreement into 2 and think that they would have get 150M for each drug in milestone payments and approvals for different countries, why couldn't DOVP just sell DOV 216,303 to them for...say...80M leaving only the royalties at stake?
3) True the real money for bicifadine is in chronic pain, but they tended to forget that bicifadine has a different composition than other drugs out there. The Meta-analisys somehow gave some good data for chronic pain, and that doesn't mean that some other PIII trials may be designed and give better results. Plus there's the acute pain program, and - I don't understand why the article didn't mention this - there's also bicifadine with ibuprofen, which showed great results in OA PII interim results. Weird enough I heard no mention of this combination for chronic pain pathologies...is OA acute pain? I don't think so.
4) Noone mentioned Dov Diltiazem nor Dov 102,677...Diltiazem is ready for PIII and is believed to have better potentials than current drugs out there.
This is about all, so what they need is prioritize some of these partnerships, out of:
1) Dov 21,947;
2) Dov 216,303;
3) Dov 102,677;
4) Dov Diltiazem;
5) Bicifadine for acute and chronic pain (alone);
6) Bicifadine for acute and chronic pain (with ibuprofen).
I am also curious to see the end of quarter results, as DOVP will have now to register those 22.5M of the deals it had with Merck as revenue all in a shot during current quarter.
What you can see from there is that the majority of traditional funds sold out their positions, while some HF accumulated as of the 30th of September. That has to do with the fact that those funds perhaps couldn't hold in their portfolios stocks trading under 1$, while those HF who accumulated probably saw some potentials in the stock.
"DOV’s 3.5 percent worldwide royalty on the drug’s sales would probably amount to much less than the $350 million in annual revenues it would have received on billion-dollar sales,"
3.5% if 1B is $350M? Uhm...I learned something new in here.
No real news from the article, weird that someone keeps buying though...
It says:
FORM 13F/A
FORM 13F COVER PAGE
Report for the Calendar Quarter Ended: September 30, 2006
so what's to you? Don't see how it says they bought as of recent, plus they state 900K for an amount of around 800K worth....you are probably mistaking, sounds to me like an old report with old prices.
If someone is betting on indiplon royalties as a cash measure to solve ANY problem I believe IMO he is dead wrong!
I do agree that bicifadine still has lots of partnerships potentials. Also the OA PII should be over by now and results available soon.
I do share the same optimism about the two compounds (21,947 and 216,303). The Company received 35M upfront a while back ago and can now re-license those compounds for higher upfront payments and lower l.t. payments. I believe something similar happened to REGN with Sanofi and while anyone said REGN's drug was dead since Sanofi returned the rights, a little time later REGN was able to strike a lucrative partnership with another Company.
Time will tell, but cash might come now from:
1) Dov 21,947;
2) Dov 216,303;
3) Bicifadine for chronic and acute pain;
4) Bicifadine for OA indication or other indications related to the compound + ibuprofen;
5) Dov Diltiazem;
6) Dov 102,677.
I would be very surprised to see that they aren't able to raise 70M out of all these drugs.