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WMT Price "Rolled Back"
Price deterioration should increase as WMT begins to unwind wave 3 of 3 of 3
The Large wave 1 began $56.97 in November '04
Medium wave 1 began $50.53 December '05
Small wave 1 began $48.87
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97369365749
Once the $44.36 level is broken, the price should have at least 1 big gap down day.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p39487152306
First Hurst, Now Zoran Gayer.
Last Monday Zoran Gayer passed away according to the notice on SafeHaven.com That's the second reputable technical analyst to pass away in the past year. Zoran's specialty was Elliott Wave analysis.
BlissBull:
Everyone on this board knows I've been very bearish for years. Yet I've tamed my bearishness by counting ending diagonals in US markets and extended waves in precious metals. Prechter would say the top is very close at hand when bears turn bull (capitulate).
Housing Crash Under Way
The lower, multi-year trend line in new house sales has been convincingly broken over the last 2 months.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/NewHomeSalesChart.asp
Housing starts ticked down, but haves not broken the lower, multi-year trend line. This is consistent with the reports of inventory build-up and long time on the market.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/HousingStartsChart.asp
Bliss: RealEstate & Stocks As One
I think they are only temporarily in sync with each other, just as oil and the stock markets have. This synchronization is something I'm going to study when I have plenty of downtime after the markets crash.
DAX Wave ED-5-zig
The DAX made a new 52 week high today.
The intraday chart shows an incomplete motive wave. The best wave count is ED-5-zig nearly done. ED-1 and ED 3 took a couple of weeks to complete. It just feels too soon for ED-5 to complete. Another 2 or 3 days or choppy advance followed by a week of choppy pullback and then 1 week of mild or choppy advance should finish of the ED around the end of the first week of May.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=5d
The MACD and Stochastics also indicate there is more room to the upside.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$dax&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
The timing of this would only be one week after the April 28 deadline the UN has imposed on Iran to halt its nuclear research. The market is anticipating Iran will not comply and some type of punative action will take place.
German DAX Ending Diagonal
Wave 1 of ED Jan '06 low to Feb '06 high
Wave 2 of ED Feb '06 high to March '06 low
Wave 3 of ED March '06 low to Early April '06 high
Wave 4 of ED Early April '06 high to April '06 low
Wave 5 of ED April '06 low to present
Also notice how the RSI and MACD are declining (bearish divergence) as the index winds its way higher.
I give the DAX another 2-3 weeks of choppy advances. If the index breaks 6240 then the ED is no longer in play because wave 3 can't be the shortest wave of the series.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DAX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p14006648635
SELL UTX
Early last week I gave a short term buy recommendation for UTX. The price broke above the 52 week high today with a tremendous amount of earning's celebration. Most of the day the price advanced in choppy trading. This is not a good sign for future advancement according to Elliott wave theory. The entire days' trading range was clearly outside the upper bollinger band. This is a statistical anomoly and will pull back between the bands.
Sell tomorrow to take profits.
Short when the price goes below $60
Golfin, What equity bubble?
The US markets have lagged markets around the world.
DELL Short Oppotunity
Since November '05 lows DELL has been tracing out a wave 4 triangle. Wave E of this triangle is done. The projected price drop is more than $4.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DELL&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62870079285
SP500 Ending Diagonal
Starting on 3/29 the SP500 began an ending diagonal (ED).
4/7 the ED ended at the opening. The selloff the ret of the day retraced nearly the entire advance of the ED. This is typical of post ED behavior. The high of 1314 was 1 point shy of the target I called before the ED began. Structurally the wave count for the SP500 looks complete to begin the second leg of the bear market. There is still the possibility of more choppy consolidations and advances. The rest of the world markets are wrapping up their rallies, so the chances are high the US is also.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/intra?Symbol=_INX
BLISS: Public Buys Dips.
Bliss that chart looks more like institutional than individual behavior. Does that mean institutions are buying high - selling low? Or just selling?
BLISS: BVSP
Nice Chart on the BVSP.
RSI is making lower highs as the market makes higher highs. It's a classic bearish divergence. Mid term top at hand.
The stochastics are overbought and about to give a sell signal.
The MACD difference shows upward momentum is fading. The MACD is about to roll over and give a sell signal.
Bliss: Nikkei
I don't see an ending diagonal on the nikkei, more like in a 3 of 3 wave count. I fully agree it is overbought according to RSI and Stochastics. The MACD difference ticked down, signalling upside momentum is losing steam.
UTX: Ending Diagonal
Dec '04 top tp Feb '06 low = wave 4 flat
Feb '06 wave 5 ending diagonal. Finishing 4 / starting 5
$60 should be broken, and is a great place to get out if long.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=utx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
TRANS vs Builders
I just heard from my housemate that UPS will be furloughing some pilots. Many pilots at small airlines look at UPS as career goal. This situation has them worried. The Transports area about to turn anyway.
Brother And Sister (FRE, FNM)
Bliss is going to get his crash very soon.
This was the second day in a row that FRE closed down and below the lower bollinger band. This indicates a the downtrend is strong. The cvhart looks like a rounded top, with more downside to complete the pattern. The 50 day avw has been broken and the price has been pulling away from that for the last 2 weeks. Volume has jumped the last 2 days. Expect volume to grow. The MACD indicates the last two days are the starting of increased selling as the MACD pulls away from the signal. The stochastics and RSI are in the oversold area, so some kind of daily support could be close. Elliott wave cout looks like a bunch of 1-2-1-2 and the 3 of 3 has started.
FNM is basically in the same situation, except it is deeper into it's long term tailspin.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FRE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p71857359522
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=Fnm&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p71857359522
WMT
WMT continues its decline since it started pulling away from the upper bollinger band. It should set new 52 week lows by the end of the year.
TeaParty: Chart
Thanks for the eye opener.
The trend lines you drew on the chart helped me see a much better elliott wave count than I've been considering. Since the Aug '04 low, a double zigzag is now a high probability. One more touch of the trendlines should finish the wave.
In a true bear market everybody, even the commercials, get fooled.
ALRX and AAGM: Greater Fool Plays
It would have been nice to be alerted to either of these plays BEFORE they more than tripled.
AAGM's chart looks like a classic bubble building and popping.
ALRX is only in a relief rally. It has retraced enough of the multi year decline that upside is limited. Notice in Oct '04 how quickly the price collapsed. price changes are much too quick to trade on. That means insufficient liquidity to support prices.
TLAB: Pop N Drop Play
TLAB is in wave 4 of a well defined elliott wave that began March 7. This should be a quick wave 5 pop. It is late in the TLAB rally, so upside predictions won't be accurate. The drop should be more than $2 since The March 7 wave should be retraced by at least 38%. The safe play would be wait for that pop and the price drop below $15.75 (today's low) before going short.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLAB&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
Teaparty: NIKK ZigZag
That chart is great because it shows a clear zigzag over the last 3 years. The NIKK more than doubled. Those returns are not sustainable. The chart shows the Zig=Zag, but that's not true because of the log scale.
Lexus300: AORD.
Pointing out how close the AORD is to topping shows I wouldn't wish misfortune on those investing in the AORD. Actually everyone should hope the AORD continues to rally. It and the NYSE are the last markets in rally mode setting new all time highs. Once those parties are over, the world enteres a deep bear or depression, depending where you live.
Nikkei: 1 more day
The 3% rally that started Tuesday morning looks like it will top Friday. That should end the 1+ year rally.
Lexus: AORD
The Elliott waves are fairly clean on the AORD. The end of the AORD rally is near. The index should drop 50% over the next year. Didn't mean to burst your bubble.
NASDAQ Comp Ending Diagonal Done!!!
The new 52 week high on the NASDAQ Composite has formed wave 5 of an ending diagonal. The rest of the markets are not confirming this breakout. The NDX has to get through primary resistance before it challenges the 52 week high. The SPX and Dow Industrials bounced and looks like a zig of an ending diagonal wave 5, or much much worse.
Investor sentiment is near a climax indicated by this rush to buy the greatest risk stocks. Look for a new 52 week high in the SPX and DOW. The Dow may even make a new all time high.
Kaarv: There Is No Dark Side
I started out in E-waves and then started to read about Hurst cycles. Both are very important tools. The major concept in E-waves is the market is a quantitative projection of social mood. the focus is on structure, not time.
Hurst cycles try provide time and expected profits. That's a major advantage!!!
Aire, Thanx re project group.
I would want to be a fly on the wall only. i've got a lot of ideas how to do this type of analysis. Hurst is a great starting point and inspiration. I wouldn't want to attempt a computer trading program based on Elliott wave patterns. Robert Prechter Jr paid a group of Lockheed engineers to write such a program. Based on his record getting egg on his face so many time the past 3 years, the algorithms probably are not that accurate. I'm fairly confident the software engineers did a great job, because I once worked for Lockheed and experienced their disciplined engineering approach to large projects.
SPX Bounce Likely.
I think today was the wave 4 of an ending diagonal wave count. The overlap of waves 1 and 4 look better.
The price found support on the middle of the Bollinger band, a high probability place for a rally to start from.
What will catch technical analysts off guard are the MACD and Stochastics giving sell signals. It may be good enough for the herd to stampede with negative social sentiment growing rapidly throughout the world.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
Big Nikkei Bounce
The Nikkei dropped 200 points at the opening and then clawed its way back for a net gain at the close. I was looking for a little pullback and a little rally. This big overlap is a possible ending diagonal.
WMT SELL ALERT
The RSI and Stochastics are giving a major SELL signal.
Stochastics are losing upward momentum.
After a couple weeks of hugging the upper bollinger band, the price has finally started pulling away.
Elliott wave count
Dec '04 to Sept '05 Large 1
Sept '05 to Nov '04 Large 2
Nov '05 to Feb '06 Small 1
Feb '06 to present Small 2
That leaves 2 degrees of wave 3's to unwind to the downside over the next few months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19605263612
SAP500 Quick Summary
The price is pulling away from the upper bollinger band: HOLD
The MACD is about to issue a SELL signal.
Stochastics are ready to issue a SELL signal.
Elliott waves indicate an ending diagonal is in play from the Feb '06 lows.
Forecast: Prices rally to a new 52 week high before a major trend reversal next week. 1315 to 1320 is a good price range.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
Cycles - Band Pass Filters
My weekend technical analysis project has been slow, but fruitful. What I tried to do was use a zero phase bandpass filter in order to construct a spectrum of dominant cycles and determine which direction they were heading. There seems to be a great deal of activity around periods lasting 8 to 16 days. Theseare acting to drive the market down. There were two isolated periods: 31 days. and 31 weeks. After that I watched the Simpsons. The 31 day and 31 week periods fit the SAP500 fairly well. This method is too coarse to give any forecasts at this time.
The ideal filter just doesn't exist. I'm leaning toward a combination of different bandpass filters to be able to measure cycle amplitude, frequency, and phase.
Liquidity Traps
Liquidity traps occur when buying dries up very quickly. This is typical of price spikes especially when a stock spikes. The trap is you can get in, but not out without the possibility of a substantial loss.
WTVN and VPER
Stay away from those penny stocks. They are liquidity traps.
Bliss: Zolt Spike
TLAB and KIM are / have spike(d)
SPX data in study,
I'm using SPX daily close values for cycles up to a year, weekly close values for cycles up to 3 years, and monthly close data for the longest ones.
one of the tough technical challenges is when two cycles have similar periods. The filter may not be selective enough to separate them cleanly. I get a combineation of two cycles instead of 1.
General Cycle Observation
After thinking about the basis of Hurst cycles and the available signal processing tools, I began to implement algorithms on a spreadsheet. Feb 21 '06 is the date of analysis. I chose this to give myself data to test predictability. What I've found are several cycles of similar amplitude and frequency, but out of phase. This would make for choppy trading as supported by the trading patterns over the last couple of months.
I still have to process cycles with periods greater than 1 year.
Bliss: Deflation / Default Crash
With so many investment arenas near extreme evaluations, there is really only one way for all of then to go, DOWN. As you point out this would be a price deflation crash. It would also be a credit deflation crash as bonds default, scaring away lenders; and sending yield thru da rufe, that nobody would want to borrow.
The sharp rise in the 10Yr Yield was just a little shy of the 62% fibonacci retracement from the 1 month high. Won't the financial reporters be shocked when a huge rally in US Treasuries cause the yield to diverge wildly from the Fed's rate.
Gold could be forming a rounded top, or a wave 4 triangle.
Bonds Rallied Hard
Short term the yield have pulled away from the upper bollinger band and is resting in the middle of the channel. Stochastics, RSI, and MACD all gave yield sell / price buy signals There is still plenty of trend left before support is found.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$tnx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
Long term E-wave from the 2003 lows in the yield have two possible corrective patterns: complex or triangle. The sharp drop in yield supports the triangle wave count. Stochastics, RSI, and MACD all are in the yield overbought / price oversold area. No yield sell / price buy signals have been given. There is still plenty of trend left before support is found.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75435286427
I'm looking for the sharp drop in yields to last a couple months. Simultaneously stocks should fall. Afterward, yields will revers hard and stocks continue to fall. It's not a conundrum to me. Traditional thinking is flight to quality. Once bond holders realize the threat of default outweighs the threat of inflation, yields will rise / stocks will fall.