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I'm witnessing the premium on weekly calls steadily increase while SPY drift sideways, could be a gap up to $219.50 tomorrow.
my instinct says we head back down towards to 210 from here but not confident enough to buy puts here. Tech super weak while other sectors like financials are soaring. Watching cautiously at the moment.
A days worth of volume in the first ten minutes - 50 million.
Sold shares here @ $17.71 from $15.71 for 2K gain.
Looks like institutional selling at 1pm, and that could be a clue to what happens next. In addition, the daily chart makes a move lower appear imminent. Long UVXY shares @ $15.71 for a trade. I only did 6 trades this entire month and 5/6 were losers. Looking for a win next week.
The market is looking bearish, important stocks are struggling. Perhaps SPY $208 next week.
Please be more specific, what did you see on the chart that led you to that conclusion?
Sell to close @ $1.24 for a small gain.
In calls, Nov 2nd $213.50C for $1.15. Daytrade.
Nasty rejection of $215, ouch. Selling calls here for a loss.
Buy to open Oct 28th $215.00C for $0.77. Daytrade.
Looks like a good setup here. I'm back to try another swing trade. Haven't even been trading day to day the past few weeks as SPY has been so choppy that just looking at the chart I would have gotten chopped to pieces. Bailed on the last trade for a loss. Gonna buy December 218C tomorrow.
I can see now daily option expiration's coming soon. Then it will only be about making sure certain strikes expire worthless - investment price won't matter as all the money will be made on option games.
The addition of Wednesday option expiration's has seemingly made SPY trade more unstable with even more manipulation and games taking place. TA becoming increasingly unreliable. Strange patterns, strange price action, an increasingly hostile trading environment.
Ascending triangle on 5 min intraday chart.
Daily chart shows a bear flag now.
Not sure what to make of today's action.
nice trade.
Come on guys, keep the politics to yourself. I don't want to delete any posts, just keep the talk about the SPY chart and the technical implications. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are off topic. Neither are elected yet, so we are not at the point where whatever policies they are talking about impact the market. There are debate forums out there where you can argue with people about that stuff. Here is not the place. I'm keeping the board politically neutral.
Which to you indicates that....
I think the daily chart is setting up for a breakout to the upside. Next week $220 is a realistic target, IMO. I didn't do any new trades this week as SPY was too volatile. The support at this level has held, and now I think we head higher in the next few weeks not only for chart reasons. I think the powers that be will want the market to go higher towards the election. A drop going into the election would be bad for business.
I've been holding 50 OCT 21st $220C bought for $1.16. Just added 30 more contracts @ $0.70. Will sit tight with these.
VXX pop meant nothing, SPY dropped 5 cents after that and is now bouncing strongly.
VXX popping now while SPY is in a flag on the 5 min, lets see what happens.
I don't understand what you are saying, can you rephrase that?
On the 6 month daily chart this is what I see.
Moving averages: Bullish
RSI: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Money Flow: Bullish
Slow Stoch: Bullish
Fast Stoch: Bearish
$210, ouch. I'm heavy in $220 calls right now. Yesterdays close did not look good for bulls.
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Lots of stocks breaking out above resistance today. Things looking very bullish now. I think now that the market knows there will be no rate hike until at least after November, we're clear to head higher. I'm long October 21st $220.00C here @ $1.16. I think we finish next week above $220.00.
Ok, I'm glad someone else noticed it.
Are they forcing you to buy a can of beans at the grocery store? no, they are not. Which means they should be allowed to charge $70 for a can with 4 beans it, right? they are not forcing you to buy it.
In case you guys haven't noticed the option premium rape situation is getting worse and worse. I buy some slightly out of the money September 23rd calls minutes before 2:00PM. SPY is at $213.85. 2PM hits, SPY begins it's grind upwards. SPY moves all the way to $215.20 and my calls are just break even at that point. Nice swindle. I get that the implied volatility was higher due to FOMC but that is ridiculous. They're selling options at grossly over inflated prices and profiting off of retail traders. It's fraud. Plain and simple.
This happened a few weeks ago too where I bought calls and SPY gapped up the next day but my calls lost value as noted in this post from September 2nd:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=124943567
I understand Delta, Theta, etc. so I am able to calculate what the prices should be and it is not matching up at all.
This is a recent phenomenon as I remember trading FOMC's of the past and making good money. I remember buying calls before 2PM on FOMC day and then if SPY ripped 1-2 dollars the options would actually gain value. Thankfully SPY grinded to $216 so I was able to squeeze out smalls gains on my options, but this is getting absurd and making me mad.
This weeks movement has max pain written all over it. Not the option concept of max pain - but the concept of roller coasting around to confuse traders on both sides, make them think they're on the wrong side of the trade and shake them out, then take it where they want it.
Yeah I noticed that, not good as I went long UVXY shares at the close. It's just that VXX decays so fast. It's literally always going down, even when it's going up it's still losing value.
An extended period of low volatility turns into a short period of extreme volatility. I think the FED's stock market band aid is coming off.
You could of turned $1700 into $150,000 starting Friday with weekly options, with only 3 trades.
Friday: September 9th $216.00P open price: $0.16 - HOD bid: $1.66
$1700 into $16,000
Monday: September 14th $217.00C open price $0.17 - HOD Bid: $0.55
$16,000 into $52,000
Today: September 14th $213.50P open price $0.47 - HOD Bid: $1.60
$52,000 into $150,000.
haha this is awesome!
Sell to close @ $1.86 from $1.30.
Buy to open September 30th $216.00C for $1.30, swing trade.
Friday was the whole sell off, time to buy calls now.
That makes sense, thanks for clarifying. SPY stalled at $218 and there were no more new buyers to take it higher. The natural progression would be for the price to correct according to the laws of supply and demand until there is enough buyers to balance out the sellers. There are much more sellers at $214-$218 than there are buyers, so the price will drop until a balance is created. I get it.
I'm not sure I understand these sudden crashes, so $218 was safe to hold at for these past 3 months but then suddenly on a random day with no news everyone bails? why? $218 was bought repeatedly these past few months then one day everyone wakes up and decides that no price is safe to buy and everyone sells all in one day? Did the fed suddenly unplug their stock buying software? I don't get what's happening. I don't get how $218 was a good price these past 3 months now all of sudden sell everything with no new events happening. Nothing's changed. The economy was just as horrible the day SPY gapped up above ATH in July as it is today. A strange universe is a strange universe.