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I think a lot of traders have given up on this too soon but isn't that the way it always happen. How many times have you heard "As soon as I sold it took off"?
After reading your question again I thought I'd reply with a few post that address my longer term expectations. Where we're at right now on a micro level is debatable but my weekly updates include my opinion. But again as far as the next couple of months here ya go.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111533371&txt2find=gold
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111727204&txt2find=gold
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111742181&txt2find=gold
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111764675&txt2find=gold
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111933197&txt2find=gold
Well first of all welcome to the board. Feel free to post anytime. To answer your question I do have a target in mind and I usually adjust it weekly when I do my updates. Since I haven't started them yet I'll start with the metals since it's quickly becoming a hot topic. First, I want to point a few things out that I use to help with my decision making.
I took a look at HELI and EAC.
HELI could be close to breaking out from the ending diagonal (ED) but until it goes I have to assume it's in a 4th wave triangle that may resolve itself to the downside and make one more low (OML). I'm not saying it's not going higher, I'm saying until it does I'm skeptical. Assuming it breaks out of this ending diagonal going higher I already have the first of three buys planned. IMO close to $5 is a legitimate target if we get decent volume on the breakout. If it's not where I think it is and this is just a corrective bounce we should still make it to $1.75 on the initial breakout. If it breaks down OML is almost a guarantee IMO.
EAC could actually be further along in the bottoming process but at the moment it's still hasn't tipped it's hand. Just looking at the chart I get the feeling it could reverse at just about any point but the technicals are sending mixed signals. The ADX - line is still trending higher while the A/D-OBV lines are still headed lower. On the other hand CMF, MACD, and RSI have a bullish tilt. I'd wait until I got the first close above the previous open to consider a position and if I did I'd use the previous low as my stop. One thing that I just can't get away from is the low volume. I understand the float is only 5 million but it's averaging less than 40k a day or to put it another way less than $200k per day. So I'd have to see the volume pick up the pace to make the trade. You need to stay disciplined on this trade or it could get away from you. I'm thinking it could reverse from where it is but it could also extend lower so caution is warranted.
Both of these charts should be at the end of downtrends but as I've said both still have some issues that I'd like to see resolved before committing to trade either. While looking at these two companies I realized how different they were fundamentally and I'm not sure that doing a deeper analysis/ comparison would be fair or helpful. If fundamentals are your thing I'd take some time to get to know these companies as both have their own set of strengths and weaknesses. Don't get me wrong I'd trade either one of these if I thought the situation was right but both are high risk for various reasons. If I could catch both coming off the and I had to chose one to trade it'd be HELI, if I had to choose one to hold it's most likely be EAC.
All just my opinion of course. Good Luck
Not sure if any of you guys are still in PAL but I'd be keeping a very close eye on it here. I've been playing this a few years now and it paid great last time around. (see Linkback). IMO it could be even better from here. I understand that many think the chart is bearish but I'm thinking the exact opposite. You have to remember it was up over 200% in about three months and the volume was getting huge. PAL has a following and can attract money. I'm going out on a limb and I'm gonna call spot Palladium for a move over $1000 and it'll bottoming soon. Not sure if I posted a chart or not, if you can't find one let me know. Anyway I'm not gonna wait for Palladium to bottom to reload. By the time that happens you can bet we'll be on our way.
Seeing the dollar drop today gives me hope for UWTI and NUGT
I believe I said that but you only posted part of the quote.
I'll be posting my updates throughout the weekend and I hope that you'll take the time to read them and understand where I'm coming from. Please ask questions if you have them. This is going to be a very important week and one we've waited on for what seems like forever. Everything and I mean everything looks ready for some movement and as long as we've been consolidating I'm sure we can see great movement coming out of this sideways action.
So the general consensus goes something like "This morning Da Boyz had carte blanche and were able to run stuff where they wanted unabated". I'm also hearing "By Monday the markets will have crashed and metals/energy will follow of skyrocket" depending on who's telling the story. I shouldn't care because I don't give any credence to this kind of rhetoric but it's this type of attitude that masks what's really going on. We all know how gullible less experienced traders can be and some may actually believe in the conspiracy BS. Now I'm not saying that the markets/gold/oil and anything else you can come up with are not manipulated. I'd have to be a fool to even consider the field we play on to be level but market manipulation is much more complicated than just selling off a few shares.
I think I've touched on this before but when we have these type of events it's almost always traced back to HFTs/Algos. These programs are a lot smarter than most understand and can do more in one second than we can do all day. They continually scan the news/pr's for trigger words and if the find one they're set to buy/sell a certain number of something hedging whatever side of the market they're on. This in itself wouldn't be much of a problem, so they say. The issue comes from these algo's/HTFs recognizing somethings not right based on X,Y,Z and "turning off" briefly to allow the market movement to stabilize before continuing to trade. They do this to avoid buying high and selling low which would be the outcome if they continued to trade throughout an entire waterfall event. Of course there's countless systems with countless instructions running in tandem with human traders and the overall effect of these systems not buying and selling for any length of time is decreased liquidity which increases volitility. The increased volitility triggers stops resulting in more selling and blah, blah, blah.
Obviously it's more complicated than the simple explanation I can muster. I don't consider myself an expert on computerised trading but I did spend a couple of days last summer at a HFT firm on wall street. I was lucky enough to get an invite from a trader I met at the show and I was going to be in town anyway so I took him up on it without hesitation. I was amazed at what these firms do and also how profitable many of these systems are. One of these HTF firms went public last year and had to release 5 years of accounting. Over 5 years of trading everyday they were profitable everyday except for 1, I shit you not. That's got to be something like 99.9999%. I know a few traders that can't stand these type of systems because of a "fairness" issue. Like it or not these things are here to stay and their participation in the markets is actually a good thing IMO.
Anyway I'm getting off track. My point is these type of events don't necessarily mimic overall market sentiment and can be made up quickly. Of course it could continue but I wouldn't make the mistake of just assuming it's going to. I've maintained my target of 2020 for a while now and I've still got it on my charts. The idea of "news" causing the drop is another discussion, LOL.
Wow they closed the indices futures at 9:15 this morning. In 1:15 minutes /ES lost 23 points but I'm not sure it changes the chart much. The dollar is way off as well and but until it breaks $96.315 it's set up to move higher pretty quickly. If that happens I suspect oil and metals will be affected negatively. On the other side if $96.315 breaks metals and oil could take off. So IMO what the dollar does here is very important as far as we're concerned.
Now the question is where will we be Monday.
Take a look at /ES
I've gotten a few request to address the IBB chart so I'm gonna have at it even though I don't trade it. I told W that I though a pullback was coming before it happened and I think I was pretty close. Wrinkles you can correct me if I'm wrong. The pullback went slightly deeper that I thought so I may have thought it was over but obviously it wasn't. I don't It now looks like we "could" get one more low before moving higher. I don't think it'll be much lower that the last one and if it is I'll open a position because I'm very confident that IBB will be at $400 after this correction is over. I have no reason to think this is anything other then a correction and I'm sticking to my earlier call for higher prices. Hope that helps cause I really don't have anything else to add.
Hope everyone did well this week, have a safe weekend and we'll see you back here on Monday if you don't make it over the weekend.
Last 10 minutes did not look good for ES.
Keep an eye out for this weekend's updates. I do believe that next week is going to be much more important than most realise.
AH today could give us some clues as to what's going on.
MILL may have put in a bottom this week, will keep an eye on it.
Remember I'm long metals and miners with a short term hedge. It very possible we could see 1170 or even 1160 but I'm not counting on it because WE ARE GOING HIGHER as soon as we bottom or confirm a bottom.
It's one of those things where I just don't want any additional trading positions over the weekend. You know just want to relax and be happy. I have a feeling we're getting ready to start moving again and all this sideways stuff is gonna be a memory soon so no reason to push the envelop right now.
Thanks for everything Wrinkles, It's nice to have you with us. Enjoy your holiday.
Just not sure I want to hold it over the weekend.
I'm considering a UWTI trade here.
This could be an exciting 30 mins
lol, that is hilarious. But I might count it just a tiny but differently, lol how funny.
I like that "profit over risk" many good systems have been built on the same principle. While risk is inherent you have to keep it in focus of it well get the best of you, strictly opinion of course.
IMO if we don't break $2.733 a new low is likely. If we do I'm still not buying the break but it will give us a solid target for a load on the retrace. At the moment $2.635 is what needs to hold to keep this move higher valid.
VXX should head higher to test $25.50 if rejected it's a very bad sign for those long volitility.
$19.15-$19.35 is the tell. The bulls pounded it hard yesterday and it held but the question is how much firepower do the bears have left?
Made it back for the last hour, did I miss much?
DUST is my hedge but I'm gonna continue to hold because I can still see GDX breaking down one more time. /GC had more than enough opportunity to take 1210 and it didn't want it. Holding for now
Use a 15 and start last Monday
You notice the channel on nat gas?
2.714 taken out, all we need is the final level at 2.733 to be taken out and we'll know that the retrace should be bought.
You're welcome but the big money is yet to come IMO. We just need to confirm a bottom.
As far as Nat Gas goes I'm gonna assume this is shorts driving this rally. I can see them taking this high enough to confirm a low. If that happens it more than just shorts.