I am updating my staus.
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YONG, Trader, sounds good... You've gone the buy low bit, hopefully -
rich
YONG, Trader cool + CSP's O/S Update
Ok, So $24.5 M / 43,840,900 - so if we rebase EPS we get $0.56.
So PPS of 7.5 gives a P/E 13.4
Stock's growth is 50% for next 3 years - If I use 40%.
My new target is $22 - I'm guessing is that won't be HOD Probably need a little patience on this one, and no muck ups from management.
rich
YONG, trader how you get the O/S ... I had 32,730,054 from the last 10-Q.
And 8 million from this offering... did I miss an offering?
I'm working with arround $24,500,000 net income for the year if you ignore all the warrant charges.
Taking my... 40,730,054 shares.. that's 0.60 EPS ish for the year...
rich
SKBI and their vaccines
Thought I better have a listen to the 3Q cc since, you know, SKBI's stocks being doing so well recently
http://www.vcall.com/conferences/event.asp?ID=152427
Couple of interesting things in Q&A
Time 14:52 What steps were needed to get the vaccine production going
1) Inspections to see if passed GMP certificate
2) Limited Production / Testing
3) Full production
Anyway, they were still talking about the $14 rev at that point but listening to the list you couldn't help but think there's plenty of chances to slip up there.
Time 34min ish Why so confident about selling all the vaccine
1) Massive demand
2) Vaccine replaces medicines - so higher margins and replaces some of their medicines but they claim not to be a problem (think it was because they would just produce different medicines) and it would also replace competitors medicines
3) New Licensing of vaccines
Anyway, people were trying to understand why they were so confident about hitting their numbers given the required growth in sales. They did $1 ish in vaccine revenues this year - even if they hit their new estimate of $6 means they are selling 6 times the amount of vaccines in their distribution channel - that's a lot of growth.
With hindsight it looks obvious that the $14M was more of an aspirational target. It reflects badly on the management to be out by so much - I can't help but feel that after diluting by such a large amount they felt they had to justify their decision.
They now have millions in cash, $2 a share of it - and since they said they didn't have a plan for it you have to ask why they needed so much; Given the stock was so cheap at the time?
That said, the company is, despite managements best efforts, cheap and it's still growing. Assuming that this company is legitimate and China doesn't burst - it still looks a good investment.
I was amused by the PR repeating the information - in essense saying "Guys you've got to look at this again! You missed it. were going to be minting it!". Meanwhile investors are thinking, less talk and start showing us the receipts - reputation is everyting.
rich
Yup, get it done already - everyone knew it was coming so just get on with it....
rich
NFEC ratobranco, thanks for laying it out. Who did you speak to at IR? The views expressed from people talking to them seem to be somewhat divergent...
rich
NFEC - Great IR, they keep everyones happy
rich
NFEC - yes, appologies 200K was the money they had put aside.
rich
TSTC datruthjack, marvellous... I'm knowledgable on wired networks (I have some of those cisco certificates which means I can turn routers on and off with only minimal supervision) - but my wireless knowledge is not so good.... will be interested in what he has to say.
rich
NFEC, Joe - I'm just trying to get a grip with another view of the company. My legal training comes from watching "Boston Legal", so, you know, other inputs welcome. I would have thought they had 200K and it does seem strange to stretch it out - but what do I know?
rich
NFEC it sounds like it was the previous owners that created a contract. NFEC was left to clear up someone else's mess. They are still fighting the case... If they have given up and not paid I think you have a point.
Do you see it differently Joe?
On May 21, 2007, a civil complaint Robert Dawley vs NF Energy Saving Corp. of America, etal. was filed in the United States District Court, Middle District of Florida, Orlando, Civil No. 6:07-cv-872-Orl-18DAB. The complaint accused the defendant of breaching a contract for payment of money that was signed by Sam Winer, former Chief Executive Officer of the Company, before the commencement of the Company’s reverse merger.
On January 6, 2009, the Company filed a notice of appeal 09-10140-B in the United States of Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit from the District Court’s judgment. The Company has engaged an attorney to prosecute its appeal of the above judgment. The parties currently are briefing the appeal. The Company has also accrued $200,000 for this contingent liability to the statement of operation in 2008. The parties have completed briefing the appeal and are waiting for the court’s decision on the appeal. At this point, the Company does not believe that the judgment would have a material impact on the Company.
rich
TSTC, WFDS - so who does your bro' think will produce competing product?
Are you saying GRRF will?
I think the management said that some competition should come along people would prefer the maturer product.
rich
LLFH - what other explanation is there? As soon as PR hit the price shot up. I assume volume as well but not following too hard.
rich
LLFH & CKGT wonder if worth showing management before and after PR of good results? hmmm...
rich
SKBI Wish they had options! Who decides that? Then all we need is people who think that $9 is a good price to write an option at. There seems to be lots at the moment
rich
NFEC - yeah, the bloke in the video made the point that they blew away their estimates and they sure did. Link was more for the rest of the info...
This one's from october...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/167204-nf-energy-continuing-its-robust-growth
I've got a starter position on the basis that it's cheap... and going to continue DD.
rich
NFEC on stockwire.. has this been posted?
http://www.stockwire.com/china
rich
CPQQ - You often see that - if someone wants to buy lots of shares they want to test the water - are there many sellers etc.. However, the intention looks clear someone wants some more...
At the moment it seems to have priced in the factory opening on time etc etc.. seems aggressive buying. If the new factory opens it could certainly do 60 cents.
I sold a third to diversify a couple of days ago but still seems a lively stock... just not sure why
rich
SKBI - cheap, growing, protected as agri stock, diversified - dunno what else the market wants... been cheap a while
rich
CPQQ ... hmm wow - holding but a bit confused with strength.
rich
SKBI - yup, put animals in an enclosed area and it stresses them - you get more disease. Put too many animals together and they passes diseases on more... I don't like the near term affect but I like and understand the move - I bought more on the day of the announcement. Should have been more paitent
rich
LLFH, yup, the numbers are a formality. The only reason it could stay down here, as far as I can see, can be some sort of climate conference. Assuming that coal remains unhindered $10 is a lock in during 2010.
rich
(Re)stocks for 2010
What are we actually trying to find out here? If it's a cudos thing to see whose best? Or is it a how can we make more money?
What I think it should do is give non-traders a list of stocks worth buying with expectations of making money now not, say, on Jan 1st.
What do others do on different boards? They must have a solution. Stocks of the month or something... or at least change them if they run up 100% or they make a dumb management move.
I would certainly be more interested in what people would choose for 2010 now, rather than a month ago when picks started to appear.
rich
LLFH - Q1 was 13 cents so - big uptick - I assume that was the coking mine.
rich
LLFH Looking like a $10 stock to me - as long as copenhagen doesn't ban coal.
rich
Uplisting - do we know if they have plans? I heard rumours a few months ago about some preferred shares stoping this from happening - any substance to the rumour?
rich
China Scaling Up / Energy
I watched a news program a few weeks ago.. and they described how the Chinese thought about a problem. They thought is we got 1.3 billion people to the same economic level as West how much energy / pollution etc is needed.
When you work it out you can't just copy the West. They looked at Japan, by far the most energy efficient country, and even those numbers didn't scale up.
So, the way they described was they are planning to get there but to achieve this China has to plan to surpass Japan's abilities - or energy will limit them. Hence my recent interest in anything that will enhance energy creation and energy efficiency... So efficiency wise CPQQ, NFEC, CREG, think smart heat sounds like one (DD based on name ) - have all looked potential growth companies.
Anyway, the whole sector should be interesting.
rich
CGA options eom
rich
NFEC, steeledge...
Essentially, the business makes money out of running more projects... so $0.16 is the baseline number for the next quarter... and if they add more projects they will make more cents?
rich
OT GCHT sahd3g... what you think about the UN subsidy thing?
rich
CNAM.. yeah couldn't work out the net margins... it's probably a home run stock.. but probably...
rich
NEWN, Bogus... understood...
rich
NEWN, Modelling...
Well, I'm I laggard on net income... so I need to see what others are seeing. Ok, concentrating on the net income...
....Me..... You
Core 6.5 vs 10
Acet 6.7 vs 7
Sch 2.5 vs 2.8
They were giving minium net incomes... so you bumped up Acet & Sch a fraction?
The big difference is the core... how did you calcuate that?
rich
NEWN: My numbers...
O/S 12.6 Million
NEWN Core business $5.6 - $6M for 09 - which is looking like 15% growth over '08. They are talking about 2M revenue deal have you added that onto the previous management guidelines?
If I assume 15% growth over the $6M target I'm getting around $6.5 M for 2010.
Anytone $6,700,000 for 2010
Shenzhen NewPower $4,500,000 for 2010
These I take it are low ball estimates. There was a note saying that Shenzen NewPower would improve margins but no estimates were forthcoming.
So, that gives me $15.6 M net income. $1.24. I guess it all comes down to what people are doing with the core business numbers? Can I get some more juice safely?
rich
NEWN, Bogus.. could you show some of the working out... which of the 3 groups make what net income... and why you chose that. It would help the laggards such as myself..
rich
NEP - well they've wanted a new oil lease for a long time.... Perhaps?
rich
There's a "bloke" on yahoo saying $18 Not the most reputable.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=76589&tid=707&mid=707&tof=1&frt=2
rich
CBPO - Bean Murray has intiated coverage with a buy.
Up 15% and has currently done 265K volume - avg volume 76K
rich
ECSC's that are optionable?
I know of
NEP
YONG
any others? It's rude not to take advantage of leverage
rich
Margin. Absolutely, and the loan is against your stock. If you don't know what you are doing you can end up losing all your money. So, ask lots of questions until you are satisfied!
rich