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LOL, I was having too much fun in the field. I am a bad and lazy trader, I am a bad and lazy trader, I am a bad and...
Risk on, that's why I currently only day trade, with a few exceptions. This is one of them. I rolled out the puts to Monday, however, based on the hoilday 'action'.
You have a point there re: rallying higher, a great point. But still...way too many people expecting rally to fizzled out any day, and that will keep fueling it, plus the Fed infusion s/t.
If I was an EW-er, however, which I most decidedly am not, I would say that should we rally, the trajectory might be something like something like what they calla an 'x of y of double zig zag to Portland by way of a larger Houston double E' kind of thing. And in fact, we could see a test of the lows again, first.
Very tortuous and not a lot of people making money.
Hence, mostely d/t-ing or swings, This is my decision, made only for me.
Best of luck to you.
NO, shorting, based on the dstribution I saw all day today with no letup, and also, we have run up very fast and I don't think anyone wants to hold long over the weekend due on the recent price holocaust.
But as I said, holidays tend to be bullish and that could change in a heart beat. I still think we go up to 285 eventually and potentially even higher.
changed my mind again...sigh...
Glen, I saw selling all day into the rally, including some of those big block buys that were purchased two weeks ago at 262.15. Most specifically, 2 x 250K sells at the bid. May have been more.
We are very extended s/t, and although I have said many times I thin we see 285, maybe even 313 and 327, s/t I think another dip is in store.
Could be, holidays are notoriously bullish, but we are very over-extended s/t and there was selling all day into the rally.
changed my mind.eom
They got me on a stop run at 275.50 @ just before the bell, the doity battards!eom
Looking for shorts today if we can't sustain 269.eom
There is pretty good support right here where it is now at the Globex session, if doesn't hold then next (for me) is 258, then 255/4 where there is excellent support.
If it goes below that I'm off the bull wagon right now.
Ghost bar at 269 or so today at the close. Doesn't always fulfill as we all know. Volume is so low between 262 and 270, that it might just suck price up there to 269-270 once/if it gets back over 262.
I am betting back up to 270 currently, but may not happen tomorrow.
My goodness, look at the volume. I wonder who was selling.
Awwwww.shucks....
Hey Glen, over here in the peanut gallery!...lololo...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=154860544
Last time we had a move like this up, the draw down was about 15 pts.
Have to check your chart to see how that compares with your DE1
Ty,
North
Hey, Sherlocksky, you have your dance card filled out yet for 264?eom
But I believe 264 (2640 SPX) wil be in play at some point this week.eom
I agree (more up). Edit: there is going to be a big fight here around 270 and an even better one if we get to 285.
Some good range, day-trading in there.
Saw one 250K blocks sell now. May have been more, wasn't watching. eom
Finally! Be mindful for the dump after distribution. eom
How does one deduce the vega is too high? I'm always trying to puzzle that one out?
TiA
Only for the first 100K, by then one should get the hang of it.
:)
~D
Just watch. They'll distribute tomorrow and Wednesday, or until the end of the week at the latest, and then dump it, in my opinion.
And then they'll do it again.
TEN points over the ask? Pros and hedges would have parceled it out in small lots slightly over the ask, or between the bid and ask, through dark pools over the course of days. This is a Fed operation to me.
And Of course I don't know I'm correct. It's an assumption.
I say mostly the second of April because watching times and sales bores me to tears. May have been other days too. ~D
Best of luck to you Spartex, and to us all here. I sincerely mean that.eom
Sure. They were buys at 260 to 262.14 on the second of of April (well, mostly the 2nd on April). Never spiked/ changed my intra-day chart at all. Were probably held back and reported later.
They mess with big blocks on options on the SPY too, but stopped trying to figure it out any more since last November since it's only clear afterwards.
~D
A post I made on the other board re 2850 target a lot are expecting:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=154841378
I am remembering all those block buys at 262 two weeks ago when the SPY was @ 250 or so, and how they might want to take profit by 2720 or lower...
Spartex,
I have no idea. When I start thinking time is when I start losing money in my trading. Gann experts tend to be very good at that kind of thing.
Best regards to you and your trading.
Nasarvi,
I am not an EW expert, or even middling good at it. What I've learned is mostly from following boards all these years. I have a basic understanding of it. It was interesting that you posted this question, though, because I was just thinking of it as I clicked on your post.
But here's the fly in the current bear argument for me:
All expert EW'ers seem to be expecting 2700 to 2850 before a resumption of the decline. It's just too neat. It's like a bear present with a bow.
2. Those ghost prints we saw at 327 and 313 on the SPY. Now I am not saying we will get there, and if we do we may not for a long time. I am just mentioning them.
3. The HUGE Fed stimulus we have right now.
4. A rally to 3100 or 3200 would wipe out most of bear sentiment and still conform with EW rules as I understand them. I.e., wave 2 can't rise above 1 down. I am presuming here that we've just seen 5 waves down of a larger wave 1 down.
I still believe though that we've started a secular bear market. I could be wrong there, too.
Best regards.
No 2850 :(.eom
Better for shorting later on. Really, I'm actually salivating and rubbing my hands like Scrooge.eom
OT: Of course, why didn't I think this would happen...sigh...
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/did-bill-gates-buy-the-cdc/
It's stoopid, not stupid, Sherlocskinski.eom
'effin' alcoholic b---ch hijacked my tweet...
Schneidku,
In my opinion, closing out was the wise and professional thing to do.
What you might want to do in situations like this where something could happen over the weekend, is to go long some cheap OTM calls and/or puts. The SPX/SPY has been building up momentum during the compression of last week's trading and sooner or later would go on way or t'other.
I am leaning long so I had some contracts at 285 (April exp) that were worth about .13 on Friday.
The horizontal rectangle formed intra-day over the last few days points to about 6 points either way from 255 or 244. It's reached it already, so could it could be the same old back and forth. I have been calling for a huge bear rally for two weeks now, so we will see if it can gain traction over that huge barrier at 263 to 266.
I'd really like to see it 285 or even 313 or 327 again. Call me a romantic, lol.
Best regards,
~D
A post of mine from twitter:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=154816670
Still obsessed with those SPY 262 mega-million share buys two weeks ago. If this maintains over 263 - 270-72 is next stop.
Posted about the Hindenburg last week on twitter.
People mentioned Hindenburg's a lot as an augury, but no one ever seems to mention lack of 'em as significant.
— dowdeva (@dowdeva) April 1, 2020
Chart with SPX correlation. Bear camp might not want to look for resumption of decline this week, at least.@MacroCharts @qckisa pic.twitter.com/wQSA7qKgxh
I don't think it will happen this year. But it is a projection I have saved somewhere.
Edit: If SPX declines to 1500 then it will become viable for me.
~D