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Timmer: Fear always dominates the public thought process, Where sound reasoning gets little Traction!
Sneak
dbernet: The only reasonable explanation that seem sound is that there is a Takeover afoot or management is acting like an Ostrich with it's head in the sand.
Sneak
Krom: ERHE has 7 times the shares outstanding. If you divide the share price by 7 you get .21 cents a share. With 2.3 billion in NSAI numbers that leave at lot of uncertainty.
Sneak
Thanks Dr. J you slammed dunked good old Dan with an In Your Face Question! If things do not work out for Danny boy, He can apply for Gibbs job as White House Press Secretary. LOL Way to Keep Mum Dan.
Silence is Bliss.
Sneak
BB: Thanks for Chiming In. What are your thoughts on the SNP news leak from yesterday.
Sneak
Kobiashi: I take the news as a good sign. I posted a few days ago about the harsh treatment company offical in China face when they are wrong. The fact that this story made it into print on the company website speaks volume.
Sneak
EXCEO: They are getting paid for doing exaclty what they are doing, Nothing, MUM is the Word! Hired Stooges at Best! Until the time is right! And who knows when that is?
Sneak
BB: It is time for you to "Chime" In on this SNP story.
Sneak
Thanks Majic, Just more no-essential Info from the spin masters of B.S. We need real info: NSAI updates, Phase 1 drilling results, Phase 2 drilling schedules and Maybe just Maybe Info about who helped pick the 2 EEZ blocks and when the PSC get signed. Also I noticed that in 2011 the JDZ will be auctioning off the balance of the JDZ blocks #7, #8 and #9 with no reference to block #5 and #6 that were left out of the News story. Maybe they are included in the 6 month delay as a new operator may have been selected. Who Knows?
Have a Great Day
Sneak
Updated NASI numbers, Drilling results and AIM listing will move this stock forward, Any lack of such means this stock stays in Neutral.
Sneak
LOL, Ya I Know! They are a Ledgend in their own Minds Eye!!
Finally maybe the Blind Squirrel will find the Acorn.
Sneak
Here is a small part of the story as reported on 8/25/10 from the AllAfrica.com website
Sao Tome at the Crossroads
Sao Tome entered into oil exploration agreements in 1997 and 2001 and formed the Nigeria-Sao Tome Joint Development Zone (JDZ), an agreement under which both countries would jointly develop oil resources in the disputed offshore area.
After the explorations found large quantities of oil, the government and the international community made some important steps towards ensuring the transparent management of oil revenues.
Sneak
Thanks HP for the update.
Sneak
It seems like more than hydrocarbons are in short supply!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f6f94ac-b6bc-11df-b3dd-00144feabdc0.html
Sneak
Bay: Since by all accounts Afren's JDZ percentage are not in play, But All the other small fish might be in play. None of the other small players in the JDZ have come out with estimates. Surely they are on the Hook for the drilling cost and would like nothing better than to have the numbers out in order to seek help with financing the cost or maybe selling off for more affordable properties. Who Knows? All we can do is sit back and watch. Maybe a JDZ wide consolidation is under way?
Tick Tock Time should be running out.
Sneak
That was a Fortnight! LOL Which is fourteen days. As is September 14th, The Year who knows.
Sneak
1) Could the Chrome group buy 150 million shares for $50 million thus giving Chrome 456 million share. then an offer of $7.00 a share come forward and SEO get his $3 Billion dollars cash he wanted for his share?
2) Could the additional shares issued for $50 million cash be for the difference between the purchase price, the nsai number and the target price SEO wants?
3) Lets say an offer is made of $6.00 a share for a buy-in or buy-out. SEO'S 306 million shares @ $6.00 = $1.8 billion or about $1.2 billion plus short of SEO'S will not sell this side of $10.00 a share remark or about $3 billion.
Just pondering out loud.
Sneak
No maybe Mark or Ruby. LOL
Thanks for the Update!
Have a Great Day!
Sneak
umbra: More Insight into China.
Bear Bet: China Crash Now Simply Unavoidable
Monday, 30 Aug 2010 10:16 AM
Three numbers should suffice to give Chinese economic policymakers a sleepless night: 65.4 million, $28.7 billion and $2.45 trillion.
In order, they are the estimate by a government researcher of how many apartments stand vacant in China, many of them bought as speculative investments; the country's trade surplus in July; and the international reserves the central bank has accumulated by buying dollars to hold down the yuan.
Together, they encapsulate the distortions of an economy that favors investment by suppressing the cost of capital and other inputs at the expense of consumers, whose spending power is held down by low wages and low deposit rates.
Unable to sell at home all that it produces, China exports the rest.
This template has powered 30 years of headlong growth that is catapulting China past Japan to become the world's largest economy after the United States.
But it is a formula that Beijing readily agrees is unsustainable: China needs to rely more on household spending, especially as its export prospects are darkening now that the West is tightening its belt to purge excess debt.
Many experts are confident that a pragmatic China will succeed in making the transition in the coming decade to a new growth model anchored by urban-based consumption, technological upgrading and a greater role for market forces.
Doubters, though, have two prime reservations. First, that China has left it too late to wean itself off investment-heavy exports. And second, that the ruling Communist Party will fail to overcome the vested interests resisting reform.
"The imbalances cannot continue at this rate for another 10 years. That's simply not possible," said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University.
He said pressure to change could become overwhelming within two to three years, or even sooner if trade conflicts flare up.
"They're embarking on change at a time when the rest of the world may not give them much time to shift," Pettis said. "Over the next decade we're going to see average growth rates of 5-6 percent, heavily frontloaded."
CAR CRASH
His skepticism is shared by some at the heart of the Chinese establishment.
Zhou Tianyong, a professor at the Central Party School in Beijing, which trains rising Communist Party officials, has long argued that China needs steady but far-reaching political reforms.
In a new book, "Where Is China Headed?", Zhou says China could be heading for a political car-crash unless it reduces bloated government, unshackles small business and ends distortions in the housing market.
"Which way will we go down? If we choose the right route we can avoid falling into a development trap; if we choose the wrong one, we may fall into a 'China trap' of social and political turmoil, slow economic growth, enduring lack of prosperity, and weak and declining national competitiveness," Zhou writes.
The 'China trap' looms if policymakers continue to promote a pattern of growth that "privileges industry, big corporations, big capital and big projects", Zhou believes.
Shifting gears will be difficult, he reckons, because of the habits China has formed and the entrenched interests that have built up.
And there's the rub. Does the Communist Party have the will to remove some of the power and wealth it has bestowed on its favorites?
China's markets for the factors of production are riddled with distortions that subsidize producers, exporters and investors, according to Huang Yiping and Wang Bijun from the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University.
Labor, capital, land and energy are all cheap, they write in "China: The Next Twenty Years of Reform and Development", a joint Australian-Chinese collection of essays.
This is equivalent to taxing the owners of these inputs, mainly consumers, which is why household income and consumption have plummeted as a share of GDP, they argue.
"All these suggest that factor-cost distortions have been a fundamental force behind China's structural imbalances, which alongside other problems such as inefficient resource use and pollution could seriously affect China's ability to sustain its rapid growth in the future," they write.
VESTED INTERESTS
Seen in that light, the problem is not one of economic policy but of political economy.
Yao Yang, also an economics professor at Peking University, bemoans that the government itself, its cronies and state-owned enterprises are forming powerful interest groups.
Writing in the same volume of essays, Yao says the Chinese Communist Party should realize for its own sake that there is no alternative to fuller democratization if it wishes to maintain both high economic growth and enhanced social stability.
"The emergence of strong and privileged groups will block equal distribution of the benefits of economic growth in society, which will then render futile the CCP's strategy of trading economic growth for people's consent to its absolute rule," he says.
Diana Choyleva, who follows China from Hong Kong for Lombard Street Research, a consultancy, says that because of the new international environment it will become clear in the next two years whether Beijing has the appetite to change.
"I want to believe that they'll move in the right direction, but every time the going really gets tough you don't seem to get that response," she said.
Financial journalist Richard McGregor says the Party should not be counted out despite the political risks that the next stage of economic reform entail.
"Does unraveling the state's economic interests irreparably damage the party's political clout? There is no easy way to chart a course through this thicket but the Party's adaptive abilities should not be underestimated," McGregor writes in a new book, "The Party".
© 2010 Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.
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Umbra: Contrary to popular belief, All is not well in China. The drilling result may or may not be as good as once thought, Who knows, In any event, I do not see the top brass at SNP bragging or releasing any information about what they found and lessening their Competitive Advantage in the Area. The people in Beijing do look favorably at under achievement or failure to "Toe The Line".
Sneak
BB: SNP may not release any news that maybe considered risky to the Top Brass.
China: Rumors of the Central Bank Chief's Defection
August 30, 2010 | 1406 GMT
LIU JIN/AFP/Getty Images
People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou XiaochuanRumors have circulated in China that People’s Bank of China (PBC) Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan may have left the country. The rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish some individuals within the PBC, including Zhou. Although Ming Pao on Aug. 30 published a report on its website indicating that the prior report was fabricated by a mainland news site that had attributed the false information to Ming Pao, rumors of Zhou’s defection have spread around China intensively, and Zhou’s name has been blocked from Internet search engines in China.
STRATFOR has received no confirmation of the rumor, and reports by state-run Chinese media appeared to send strong indications that Zhou is in no trouble at the moment. However, the release of this rumor and its dispersion throughout the public is significant, particularly as the Communist Party of China (CPC) is preparing for a leadership transition in 2012.
Chinese state-run media and official government websites have run several high-profile reports about Zhou, which should be seen as a move to refute the rumors. The PBC website published two articles on its homepage reporting on Zhou’s meeting with visiting Japanese Financial Services Minister Shozaburo Jimi during the third China-Japan high-level economic dialogue as well as a meeting with an Italian delegation. Xinhua news agency reported that Zhou told the PBC Party Committee Enlargement Meeting on Aug. 30 it should “continue to implement justice, and strengthen legislative work in the financial system.” Prior to this news, Zhou appeared at the 2nd annual conference of the heads of the Chinese, Japanese and Korean central banks held on Aug. 3, and his most recent public appearance was Aug. 10 for China’s Financial System Anti-corruption Construction Exhibition.
Zhou is known to have lofty political ambitions and is believed to be a close ally to former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, as well as a core figure for Jiang’s “Shanghai Gang.” There has been no shortage of rumors about Zhou’s possible dismissal in the past five years, as he is believed to be associated with several high-level financial scandals. For example, Zhou was rumored to be under “shuanggui,” a form of house arrest administered by the CPC, during the massive crackdown of Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu in 2006, which was perceived in the country as a crackdown of the Shanghai Gang and part of Hu’s effort to consolidate power ahead of the 2007 power transition. There was also a rumor that he might have been detained following the investigation and arrest of Wang Yi, the vice governor of the China Development Bank, along with several other officials in the financial circle. Currently, several financial scandals are still under investigation, and it is likely that Zhou, as PBC governor and one of the most powerful economic players in the country, could be associated with some cases. Therefore, whether or not the rumor is true at this time, the leaking of this news is very likely to be associated with a power struggle within the Communist Party’s economic hierarchy.
Sneak
HP: You should have highlighted "called for by 2004 law but never created,"
Sneak
ewing4: The same can be said of Oily as well.
Sneak
Tapco1: Could it be that ERHE needs to raise $50 million in order to pay for the signature fees on blocks 5 & 6 of the JDZ and the two 15% interest in the EEZ?
Sneak
Proven: For ERHE to achieve a $14 share price, It would have to have 1.265 Billion BOE ( Gas, Oil and Condensate). As of the latest NSAI P50 report she has about 336 Million BOE. The new NSAI number could be 1/3 of that Target Reserve or More. With the EEZ in play, It could be close.
Have a Great Day
Sneak
DG: Another way to look at this play is, At $8.00 a barrel of proven reserves, The Market is saying that at .36 a share, ERHE has only about 32.53 million barrel of proven reserves, Which is about 10% of the NSAI P50 Number.
The Window is open, Bets Please!
Sneak
ERHC Proven: China has more demanding needs.
Today's Trends: China Proved Oil Reserves Decline As Demand Rises
Rigzone Staff
|
Thursday, August 05, 2010
China's oil consumption rate climbed from 4,477 million b/d in 1999 to 8,625 million b/d in 2009, reflecting the energy needs of a populous country with a growing economy, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010.
While China's oil production rate increased during the same time period, it fell short of meeting the domestic consumption rate. Oil production climbed from 3,213 million b/d in 1999 to 3,901 million b/d in 2008, but declined to 3,790 million b/d in 2009. Production in 2009 represented 4.9 percent of the world's oil production.
Meanwhile, China's proved oil reserves declined from 16.0 billion barrels at the end of 1989 to 15.1 billion barrels at year-end 1999 to 14.8 billion barrels at the end of 2009, or 1.1 percent of the world's proved oil reserves.
Since 1999, China's consumption of natural gas has grown from 759.2 billion cubic feet (21.5 billion cubic meters) in 1999 to 3.1 trillion cubic feet (88.7 billion cubic meters) in 2009. During that time, China's gas production has steadily increased from 899.9 billion cubic feet (25.2 billion cubic meters) in 1999 to 3 trillion cubic feet (85.2 billion cubic meters).
China's proved natural gas reserves grew from 36.02 trillion cubic feet (1.02 trillion cubic meters) at year-end 1989 to 48.3 trillion cubic feet (1.37 trillion cubic meters) at year-end 1999 to 86.7 trillion cubic feet (2.46 trillion cubic meters), at the end of 2009.
Gas will play an increasingly important role in China's energy future as the Chinese government is promoting the use of more gas to meet the country's large energy appetite.
Historically, coal has played a key role in feeding China's energy needs. The country, which ranks third behind the U.S. and Russia in terms of proved coal reserves, had 13.9 percent of the world's proved coal reserves at year-end 2009, or 1,145 billion tonnes of coal. China's proved coal reserves include 62,200 million tonnes of anthracite and bituminous coal and 52,300 million tonnes of sub-bituminous and lignite coal.
The amount of coal mined in China grew from 645.9 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 1999 to 1552.9 billion tonnes of oil equivalent at year-end 2009. China's consumption of coal also grew from 656.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 1999 to 1537.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2009, mirroring China's growing industrial activity and economy. While the Chinese government has encouraged the development of a diverse range of energy resources in China, coal will remain critical in meeting the country's energy needs.
In the last decade, China's consumption of nuclear energy has increased from 3.4 million tonnes oil equivalent to 15.9 million tonnes oil equivalent in 2009. The amount of hydroelectric power consumed in China also grew from 46.1 million tonnes oil equivalent in 1999 to 139.3 million tonnes oil equivalent in 2009.
Consumption of all five fuels increased in China from 2008 to 2009, as did the overall consumption rate from 2007.4 million tonnes oil equivalent in 2008 to 2177.0 million tonnes oil equivalent in 2009.
At .36 the betting world is saying that ERHE has only 32.5 million BOE in the JDZ.
Sneak
Middy: The Only real facts is that ERHE has is the current share price of .33 x 723 million share = $238,590,000.00 dollar market cap divided by $8.00 a barrel for proven reserves = 29.823 million barrels. So the market is betting that ERHE has only 29.823 million barrels in the JDZ for them. So, Do I here Phase II drilling to refute that Number? or an updated NSAI report may get this stock over the $1.00 mark for good.
Sneak
To all the "Pudski" out there: The current stock price of $.29 represents only 26 million barrel of oil or BOE.
Formula: 26 million barrels x $8.00 a barrel = $208 million divided by 723 million shares = $.287 a share. Surely there is more oil and gas than that.
Lets go Folks, This Stock Looks Over Sold!
Sneak
Proven: You should update the spread sheet with the JDZ blocks that are still in play, Just like you did with the EEZ blocks.
Nice work!
Sneak
Farrell thanks for the Laughter!!
Sorry Krom :>) That was Funny, I love good humor.
Sneak
Farrell: No, But you can see Oily standing in a scuba outfit under the first platform. LOL
Sneak
Strass: OML 130 is next to JDZ block 1. Akpo comes to mind, The Egina filed is closer to block 1 than AKPO. Lets see, They started developing OML130 in 2006 when SNP showed up. How long have we waited for the big U.S. Companies to do something?
Strass, I know people here are frustrated, It has been a long haul. Hopefully the end is near.
Take care
Sneak
Total is not wasting any time:
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/j-p-kenny-mcs-kenny-complete-first-full-subsea-feed-in-nigeria/
Sneak
China now world’s biggest energy user
By Carola Hoyos in London
Published: July 19 2010 17:51 | Last updated: July 19 2010 17:51
China overtook the US last year to become the world’s biggest energy user, the International Energy Agency revealed on Monday.
Beijing’s new status is expected to make it even more influential in global energy markets, in determining prices and how it is used.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Opinion: China builds bridges to fuel its engine room - Jul-04.Energy Source - Feb-25.Chinese oil spill heightens oversight worries - Jul-18.Chinese economy starts to cool down - Jul-15.China imports widen US trade gap - Jul-14.Business leaders hit at tougher CO2 target - Jul-15..China clinched the top slot more quickly than had been expected because the US has over the past decade far outpaced China in using energy more efficiently. On a per capita basis, the US still uses far more energy than China and remains less efficient than Europe.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, said: “In the 2000, the US consumed twice as much energy as China, now China consumes more than the US.” He noted that the US had improved the efficiency with which it uses energy by 2.5 per cent annually during that time, while China managed only a 1.7 per cent annual improvement.
“On the one hand, the US has come to a certain saturation of energy use, but there have also been lots of efforts, especially since 2005, to use energy more efficiently,” he said.
China last year consumed 2,252m tons of oil equivalent of energy from sources including coal, oil, nuclear power, natural gas and hydropower, about 4 per cent more than the US, the rich countries’ watchdog said.
China’s growth has also not suffered the same setback as that of the US following the global financial crisis.
In 2008 it pushed oil prices to record highs, which helped tip the world into recession. Mr Birol said China’s increased need for imports of coal and gas could eventually have a similar impact.
A second big consequence of China’s growing heft as an energy consumer is that the country will thus increasingly determine how energy is used on a global scale – from the types of cars manufactured to the kinds of power plants built. This means China will also determine energy consumption patterns outside its boarders. “There will be a big multiplier effect,” Mr Birol said.
Though the IEA warned the data on China’s energy demand last year was still preliminary, the country’s ascendancy in energy use has been well established, with western policy makers fretting about issues such as Beijing’s agressiveness in seeking to secure oil from Kazakhstan to Sudan and to China’s growing carbon emissions.
China is already by far the world’s largest user of coal. Despite its own vast resources, its imports of thermal coal are expected to hit 105-115m tonnes this year, pushing it ahead of Japan as the world’s largest coal importer. Only three years ago China was a net coal exporter.
The trend has also been apparent in oil. Saudi Arabia, the world’s most important oil exporter, for the first time last year sold more oil to China than the US, which for decades had been its most important customer.
In March, Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA’s secretary-general, called on China to join the IEA, warning that the organisation, which represents the OECD’s largest energy consuming countries, risked losing its relevance otherwise.
.Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
Is the Fat Lady Starting to SING!
Sneak
I know you have spent sometime working up your spread sheet, But SEO should be asking $8.00 a barrel for oil or oil equivalence.
A Large Pools of Hydrocarbon will fetch the highest price. CVX and XOM left because the cost did not equal the reward. Total on the other hand has the infrastructure in place a few KM away and SNP to float the bill. When phase two drilling is done and upon further review by NSAI the price maybe right. JMO
Sneak
Krom: It does not matter what Total paid for Block 1. CVX was up against phase 2 drilling requirements. Total was not buying a house on the same block as ERHE, So your comparable pricing stategy does not hold. That type of analogy could be used to value any patch of sea floor within couple of KM from any producing well, It will not due. If The Oil is in Block 4, SEO will get a price that is equitable to what lie beneath the sea floor in his Block!
Updated NSAI Report Please.
Sneak
Did anyone stop to think that the new share warrants could be used to pay signature bonuses on the remaining JDZ and EEZ blocks, Thereby perfecting ERHE'S rights. Total or SNP could exchange $50 million for a percentage of ERHE on the AIM.
This scenario is not far from the White Board.
Sneak
It does not matter anymore, Phase 2 drilling starts soon and updated NSAI to come out.
I believe that we are now in the Cat Bird Seat!
Sneak