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It's a shame that article doesn't get into Capital Structure, which is the key reason most intelligent GSE investors own Jr. Preferreds rather than Commons.
Seeing as how there's a recapitalization on the horizon, Capital Structure is a very important FNMA Fact to be mindful of. Owning Common equity is a sure way to get burned assuming the terms aren't favorable to existing Commons (and they will have ZERO say in any of this since they have no rights while the GSEs are in Conservatorship).
Owning Jr. Preferreds is a way of saying: "Hey, I see there's a recapitalization coming. The GSEs are going to need to flatten the Capital Structure in order to raise ~$100B in capital. In order to flatten the structure, Jr. Preferreds will need to be dealt with. And since the GSEs don't have much capital, the only way to deal with Jr. Preferreds would be to offer them a juicy proposal and have them convert to Commons."
Hopefully that makes sense. That's the thesis and it's not changing unless the Admin changes tunes. In which case, we're all likely getting Cancelled
This is a great analogy for $FNMA Commons.
Do you know any Lawyers that will accept $FNMA shares as collateral / down-payment for a Lawsuit?
Trust me, these shares are as good as Gold
Judge Sweeney has not ruled on anything other than to not Dismiss the case. That is ALL she has "Ruled" on so far.
The case will proceed. That's what her "Ruling" means. Nothing else has been decided at this time, regardless of her comments re: the FHFA's/Treasury's Actions.
And don't forget Judge Ginsburg's "Salt the Earth" comments. Remember how he ended up ruling in the end? Yep, not good
Please stick with $FNMA Facts and not $FNMA Fantasy.
Then why are you betting on $FNMA Commons?? LMAO!
$FNMA has broken ankles & legs. It's been stumbling for years, unable to do anything meaningful.
Gotta know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. $FNMA needs to be folded
They haven't purchased the shares yet, they're raising the funds now
Did you see news today that FHFA is going to pay the Servicers $500 per mortgage in forbearance?
That's No Bueno Amigos. Here we thought we were going to get money, but it looks like we'll be paying it out instead.
I guess that means they'll just need to sell that many more $FNMA Commons to raise those funds
Not a good day for $FMCC Commons. Why did JPS skyrocket today?
Whoever was buying JPS today had absolutely no interest in Commons
I'm starting to wonder, it might not happen.
The large buyer of Jr. Preferreds today had ZERO interest in $FNMA Commons.
Maybe it continues again Tomorrow. Maybe all Week. Maybe all Month ... Maybe all Year
Not a good day for $FNMA Commons. Why did JPS skyrocket today? No one knows.
Maybe some were folks Converting from Commons to Jr. Preferreds? Maybe some new Funds were buying?
We may never know. But the conclusion is, whoever was buying had absolutely no interest in Commons
$FNMA is not a recco
Receivership may be the only option
Is that $14 before or after Reverse Split? And are you still assuming a 1:10 Reverse Split? Because that would mean $FNMA is currently over-priced.
I just feel Commons should be Cancelled considering their attacks on the Admin, Calabria, Mnuchin, Jr. Preferreds, etc.
Considering they're riding the coattails of JPS in every aspect, yet still continue to denigrate everyone besides $FNMA Commons, there needs to be a clear message sent from the FHFA/Treasury.
That message needs to be -- Commons are Cancelled, go ahead and file your futile lawsuits.
How can Jr. Preferreds be Green while Commons are Red? This is completely unacceptable.
I think I'm going to file a lawsuit to make sure this doesn't happen. Ohh wait, you say it's already happened and been happening for a few days now?
I have a feeling this is how the Jr. Preferred to Common Conversion conversation is going to go
#FileMoarLawsuits!
Correct, it bolsters the need to do a Capital Raise via $FNMA Common equity.
Let's get on with it!
Agreed. If Capital Rule isn't announced by end of May, then $FNMA Commons are going to get left out to dry.
The Congressional Review Act will come into play, and that means a new President could override anything that was done by the previous administration within that timeframe.
If I'm a Common holder (I'm not), then I would be shaking in my boots as the Clock is ticking. T-minus 30 Days now.
No Capital Rule by end of May, then Commons may in fact be Worthless and/or Cancelled. It's a shame they don't have Contract Rights like the JPS
Yikes! So much for a retained earnings Recap
Let's hope they're hard at work preparing to issue new GSE Common stock. Otherwise, it'll be another decade before the GSEs are recapped
They will likely receive a fraction of that since the $60B figure is $FNMA Fantasy and not grounded in reality.
The $FNMA Facts keep coming. Is this the best board ever or what?!
Sticky please. Excellent $FNMA Facts
Do you have a link to support this?
I like to work with $FNMA Facts and not $FNMA Fantasy.
Sticky please! $FNMA Facts matter
You have read HERA, right? Because it directly contradicts your statements. Ouch!!
The market disagrees based on its valuation of JPS versus Commons. But we will all have to wait and see as no one knows for sure what's going to happen.
However, we do know that Calabria can raise capital if the GSE's are categorized as under-capitalized
FHFA stepped into Commons' shoes. So the GSE's Board of Directors are technically a shareholder-elected Board already.
Have you read HERA? It covers this thoroughly.
And since HERA is law, the SEC will have to accept the Board of Directors as-is.
If JPS are worthless, Commons have negative value.
I'm not the FHFA, sorry! But if you're not expecting the Warrants to be executed, I would start preparing to file that case today because ...
... it's coming Amigos
But it's coming either way Amigos. Dilution via capital raises and Warrants is not up to Commons. FHFA / Calabria will make that decision for us.
And it seems they've already showed their hand -- Capital Raises, Warrants, and likely Jr. Preferred to Common Conversions
They are all coming Amigos
FHFA hired a new COO today. Guess they're not going anywhere any time soon
They are here to stay, and $FNMA will have to deal with it