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I'm looking for about a 50 point drop from ES but I need it to roll over here.
Here we go EST, the moment of truth on my TVIX trade.
I've had INUV a while, I want to say like .80 but I'd have to look, it's under a $1 for sure
I know it's in a 3rd wave at the moment, this is why I'm always talking about catching 3rd waves. Up or down it doesn't matter to me. Let's me come up with some targets for it.
PAL is most certainly not printing 5 down, I'm just not seeing it. I've been getting that a lot lately so I'm gonna have to go over a very important rule that should help evaluate some of the confusion.
You're welcome and glad we can help. It's a team effort and it's everyone's contributions that make this what it is.
The dollar could make a $2 bounce here which would provide us with the opportunity to load oil and gold plays. So I'm thinking $96.50 to $98.50 would has about fit perfectly.
A weaker dollar is good for oil and oil has been rallying since the dollar started to pull back. Oil and Nat Gas do not have the same drivers so looking at them together is not a good idea IMO.
Yes it is.
1st buy in TVIX $1.59. This is a calculated risk on my part and I'll stop out quickly if things don't go my way. I'm not suggesting anyone follow the trade as ES may still have higher to go. I am however suggesting if ES rolls over it'll most likely continue down under 2030.
Keep an eye on TVIX/UVXY. There's a chance we've topped in ES. Now is not the time to get cute but this could be a good "short term" play. More to follow.
My second count supposes that the low at 2.583 finishes the down trend. If that's true from here we should break that 2.733 number which means an entry on the pullback. For those with a higher level of risk starting to scale in here may not be a bad idea.
I'm waiting on UGAZ and will load soon. Really nothing more to add on the subject, can act until the markets say it's time. OML is all we need to really get the rolling IMO so wait I will.
Good Morning EST, it looks like ES make a huge comeback.
Weekly Update 4-6
US Dollar: We're seeing a 4th wave correction and that is no doubt contributing to the recent bullishness we're seeing from commodities. It should continue lower for now but the top of my target area is $95 so I'd keep an eye on that area. I'm hoping for lower and we could see as low as $92 but when this finally decides it's done with the retrace I have a feeling commodities could be close to finishing their current move.
Oil: While I'm not absolutely sure about right now I have to take a bullish approach given what I'm seeing bigger picture. If everything else is to go the way I expect then I'm pretty sure oil should head higher. So if support at $47 holds I'm still looking for a move to $60.
Nat Gas: We had two resistance levels broken but until $2.733 breaks we can still see $2.55. If $2.733 breaks it'll be hard to argue that we don't have a bottom and once that becomes clear we could see heavy short covering.
Uranium: It seems to me like no one cares but I certainly do so I'm including this in my weeklies. SO far I'm seeing URA hold the LTL on the daily however one more dip below $10.14 or may even $10 could be in the cards. I would suggest you guys keep an eye on this because it's at a multi year low the the charts are forecasting and major bottom.
Gold, Silver, GDX, GDXJ: Bottom line is I'm looking higher and any dip is a buying opportunity IMO. Remember that the 2015 highs are the target but I'm going to bail at the top of whatever this next wave higher turns out to be.
SPX/ES: What I'm getting ready to say my shock a few folks but I'm not changing my call from last week or the week before or whatever it was. I'm looking for 2020 with a chance we break 2000. While I think our chances at breaking 2K have improved I'm not going to base any of my entries on it happening. I seen Fridays futures drop but like I said then it didn't change the chart. If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it but for now that's my story and I'm sticking to it. I also still think that as soon as we bottom we'll start heading higher and will eventually hit that 2150 target I've been talking about.
If PAL holds .1823 it's targeting .44-.70
VIX futures looking good.
Happy Easter...
Ok I've seen enough, give me a few minutes and I'm gonna give you guys my thoughts on what's going on here.
Until we break 1220 I have to say that's it's still a possibility but I'm not holding my breath. I just don't think 1170 is on the table any longer but that's strictly my opinion since it is still technically in play. Up until tonight's open it was very much in question and my preferred count since I don't like to change outlooks unless I have a good reason. At the moment if we make it back into the 1190's I'd be thrilled as it should help bring back GDX and GDXJ for those of us looking to add. Something else tonight's gap does is make me lean towards the bullish counts I have for NUGT and JNUG. Honestly right now it's my opinion that any pullbacks from any of the metal plays should be bought. The last thing I want to do is be waiting for a low that doesn't come and miss the breakout trying to catch another dime.
Oil is back over $50 but it needs the dollar to go lower if it's gonna break over $52
Just so there's no confusion I've already said I expect metals to move higher and my target for gold is around $1300. When I say I'm looking for a lower entry I mean lower than right now. So again when I say lower I'm talking about buying the dip, not new lows or anything even close to that. Where almost at a point where I can give you guys more specific guidance as for what I'm gonna do but at the moment I'm waiting to see a little more of the tape.
The top of my target zone for gold is 1225. Silver already broke it by .10. I'm still looking lower for lower entries but until I'm sure we've topped I can't give you guys a good loading zone. I could be wrong but an entry here does not provide a R/R ratio so I'm not thinking about adding any additional metal plays until the first pullback.
If the dollar doesn't move higher to finish off this move it needs to hold 94.75ish or I'll cause the bulls to panic.
As of right now I expect that gap gold made to fill.
I just can't see ES maintaining this move higher. It really should be going lower IMO.
As I've said many times the dollar is the key to everything. The question on everyone's mind is has the run finished and honestly I'm not sure yet but I could see it going as high as 103 before pulling back
My initial target for gold has been taken out, while it can still move up a bit I plan on waiting and buying the pullback.
Palladium up big as well.
Look at that gap in gold, wow.
Good Evening EST, as promised I'll be putting out my weekly updates this evening but I'm going to watch things here for a bit to try and narrow the possibilities.
Any idea's on the best way to play copper?
In a situation like we're in right now we need to be as forward looking as possible. Spot Palladium is going to drive this much much higher IMO but I'm just not seeing the kind of bullishness that one would expect with this set-up. Honestly I'm not surprised because most won't even consider bullish statements until whatever it is their talking about is already moving higher. I've been tracking Palladium for a while now and I'm 1000% certain I have the right count going. I don't want to get to into this because most simply don't care but after Palladium makes the next bottom it's going to be in the early stages of a bull market which will last into 2016. As it progresses it'll enter the strongest and fastest part of the entire trend higher. Now I may not be a metals expert but I'm smart enough to figure out that when a metal turns and starts to trend higher money moves into whatever assets will benifit from that move. I could be wrong but with the limited number of choices I'm damn near positive that PAL will benifit in a big way. One of the reasons I'm so high on PAL is because the opportunity to get in early, with proper play, almost guarantees no risk in the latter stages of the run. This is where staying the course and managing exposure will be extremely important from the get go. Good Luck.
BAA may even have a good week. There are a lot of miner charts the look ready for a move.