Married
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Hello CFG. I am following your thread and i'ts a curious phenomenom if this is what is happening and if I understand what is being implied or unveiled here;
Shareholders buy the products and praise its wonders, then somehow they pursue an algebraic circular logic, wherein they base those sales and accolades as a platform on which to rationalize their support and pronounce their faith and promulgate favorable prognostications..all undoubtedly well meaning and intentioned but worthy of deep analysis by someone much better educated than I in the workings of the human mind.
In the words of the Alice; "Curiouser and Curiouser". Whooda thunk it.
Do you think this is what is happening here? I don't know but nothing surprises me.
If I have misunderstood the underlying theme here please accept my apologies.
I have never filed a registration statement whereby the company saw no apparent benefit or proceeds. These things cost huge sums of money to prepare and produce. And unfortunately they expose your bare derriere to the world at large. Again; I have lived in a sheltered environment that was inhabited by facts, operating results and black and white assessments of management's business accomplishments.
And by the way, who is the Cheshire Cat in this docu-drama? Someone is probably similng broadly here, just not sure whoo....
My sense is that the good Doctor is a genuinely straight shooter, who is operating in an unfamiliar theatre of war. I hope he doesnt end up getting shot by his own troops, by design or default.
I should mention that I am going to buy some shares just to have access to the company and management.
Some here may not like the questions I will pose, since the least of my issues will be PR related.
Good luck.
I'm late, I'm late......for a very important...
I always prefer to read what is written, good or bad, I can make assumptions based on fatual accuracies, Reading "BETWEEN THE LINES" is a dicey way to amange your money. unless you just really dislike your money.
But to each his own.......
Good news, Why was the payment an obstacle with a 3 miilion po financing commitment? I am sure I am missing a detail.
while it can be perceived as a pretty dark dawn ahead, there are a variety of ways that the ship can navigate thru these waters. I have come to understand that there are legions of shareholders that are at risk here, while i question the zealotry, i am hopefull that it will work out. it really is in management's purview to address and attack the various challenges. Whether they do or not, or have the skill set to do it effectively is above my pay grade to prognosticate. But it is a damned interesting scenario to observe.
fortunately, these things can be corrected, sometimes the threat of your own demise can motivate an economic predator to mitigate his appetite, however it requires gamesmanship, confidence in your position and nerves of steel. along with a healthy dose planning and foresight.
If they see you as a real operator (in a good sense) and someone that can fatten the calf, you have some leverages, real leverages
the old addage apllies " if you owe the bank 20k; they have you by the testicular tissue; if you owe them 20 million..you have them by the............"
REVISED AGAIN: maybe what is termed a death spiral on the "Street", wherein the shares increase due to certain triggers such as non payment, low share price or not achieving the forcasted share price goals etc..also can refer to an increase in the interest rate on a debt instrument's interest rate and carry punitive clauses that theoretically call for share issuance penalties, if interest is being paid in shares then it would increase. also could be driven by % ownership of outstanding clauses, either punitive or structural in nature, with date or event specific triggers
who knows, this is a pretty byzantine situation in my miniscule mind
sorry I am doing 4 things at once and i have misspelled and omitted letters etc., like nobody's business
that in and of its self is not a big deal to me, many start ups default on such commitments, its how they negotiate and restructure that matters.
Again.. management needs certain skill sets that are acquired in the trenches.
they must be accruing their salaries, that is not a great situation either due to the payroll tax liabilty but whatever
for a company on life support those seem excessive. but who am I to say.
if that was the catalyst all I can say is that they should have negotiated differently or resisted the pressure. thank you,
Dog, Since I am NOT going to read the registration Statement, can you tell me / us et al, if there were any overhangs vis-a-vis demand registration rights prior to the Dec S-1 that forced this filing? I am still trying to understand why they filed it. I could not find any corporate benefit in doing this. Folks please remember that I look at actual operational and / or economic corporate benefit.
What is the actual monthly burn? I am curious, it should not be much. however they seem to have a penchant for headcount and bricks and mortar so who knows...just my opinion
the company will recieve no proceeds from this offering.
you have the description dead - on! Here are the practical operational realities; it is a one sided relationship, the operational burdens and the capital costs associated with maintaining the supply chain are the vendor's, the vendor cannot record sales until they ship one at a time, the cash flow benefits enure to the retailer, they get paid and then pay the vendor usually on a time frequency or when X number of units ship, they typically do not want to cut checks or remit EDI payments every day.
It is a good system for capital intensive products so the vendor does not run the A/R risk of having a retailer or e-tailer holding large balances.
It also is a good system for high cube and high weight products such as traditional white goods.
if a retailer is not availing itself of quantity discounts or cash discounts on a trditional low bulk, low dollar item it may be indicative of risk aversion strategies.
I did not look at Amazon, I know the price range of ASFX items, obviously you read what you thought I was saying, not what i said..I was not clear enough, sorry.. Let me elucidate, I do not know what Amazon sells in the category, I do know from on point experience, that Amazon sells basically most things that have some chance of selling, either via drop ship or miniscule minimum order qtys, They buy in onsies twosies and put the burden of handling and logistics efficiencies on the vendor. Now that being said logic tells me that a CAPEX ($250+) item will have significantly lower unit through put so I would discount those from any ranking. I also am of the opinion that for a micro cap company or nascient enterprise, having items listed on Amazon has more PR value vis-a-vis image transfer and inferred credibility, than practical commercial value.
No I am not, I havent reviewed
I am waiting to see certain moves that could make this attractive. I already did my DD and know what I want to look for.
Not being critical, just asking a logical question, How many items in category and out of that number how many would be considered capital item (over $250.00)
Its about apples to apples. Were does it rank w other thermometers that are over say.$15.00?
Hello CFG, thanks for the comment.
Good Morning Dog, Pro to your comment: Every shareholder needs to read these disclosures, SEC, NASD, auditors and other regulators promulgate these for a reason. Otherwise plunge recklessly at your own peril.
Con to your comment: It is boilerplate and never specific enough. You cannot view these things in a vaccum, read the financial statements and FOCUS ON THE FOOTNOTES! The footnotes always are at the meat of the matter.
I am not a day trader or a penny player. I am an investor and rely on facts and disclosures, I usually discount Press Releases or back doors to publicity. PR's by design, are intended to influence the market reaction to an equity.
I am hopeful that one day I will read posts here that talk to issues of Management capabilties and on point track record, Company goals and viability of those, Market segment realities and trends, Product's competitiveness and consumer value added benefits. Ahhh maybe......
Take out the "Buy One!" yes with an exclamation point no less, take that out and you have a nice testimonial. but they had to overreach and taint it. Maybe not to the zealots but absolutey to a Wall Street or capital markets person.
I go back to a worn out position, manage the business, make your numbers, manage the P&L, grow the business. This is what I don't get about the board and the posts.
PR is not a strategy, that is what I cannot get past. This all seems to focus on hype and PR, unfortunately eventually you have to put meat on the bones or all you have a graveyard. For the shareholder's sake I hope they do that.
What ever, everyone will do what they do.
The "BUY ONE!" comment is absolutely over the line for a Dr. I am sorry, it just is.
This kind of flim flamish rhetoric can and often does undermine credibility needlessly.
i dont like people putting words in my mouth, i dont care how heated the rhetoric. what i believe firmly is that anyone who understands the relationships will see that its most likely a setup, when a buddy at work says hey buy this! when is the last time a doctor told the world at large to buy something? That undermines credibility whether one wants it to or not.
is this not the same hosp that the Dr CEO guy works at. I think it is an obvious plant fot the doc to say "buy one!"
this is the kind of silly stuff tha undermines credibility in the company.
maybe you're on to something
Thanks, I would still outsource that. I certainly would not move it to Florida. Many good companies that specialize in this. Sorry I just hate fixed OH.
Not really Mike, what does he have to do with the movement of the goods?
If its not in Florida now why move it there. I dont think they need a facility period. Its fixed OH, I am not a friend of brick & mortar. Particularly when its an uncompetitive net negative?
It requires headcount. It requires attendant expenses that typically run at a ratio of 1:2.
Every additional component you build into the model also requires management time and focus. Sorry it just sounds like a nutty idea to me. Not well thought out. If P&G outsources most of its distribution and logistics, why would anyone look to build costs and capital burden into a model?
Public warehousing is a fixed cost with all of the necessary add-ons in place. it is scalable. Up or down. You know what it costs to traffic each unit period.
And if they are lucky enough to bag a few major accts. haulbacks are easier with a public facility. Customers love haulbacks. Ideally the goods would be close to the port of entry. Limit handling, trucking and all of the costs associated with in & outs etc. In a typical environment you'd never get this past a BOD.
Just saying.......
i dont get the move. Makes no sense. Freight out of florida is very expensive distribution space is also at a premium so are ancilliary costs like insurance etc.. best locations are Atlanta metro and Chicagoland. They both run under $1.00 cwt to move goods. Why the move?
if they are shipping mckesson, there is a po.
Hi Curt, sorry, I went to the Yankee game yesterday so I blew out early.
I had a specific interest emanating from an industry rumor. that was what got me here. I have never posted or monitored a board like this before. I now watch it because it is an interesting dynamic here.
While my initial intention was to invest, no I would not invest now in asfx based on what I have seen, learned and observed here but mostly elsewhere. My DD was really focused on a limited number of issues that historically the equity markets look to. Again MY OPINION.
In my opinion, the postings here are for the great part emotionally driven and I dont see enough focus on the fundamentals. People attack each other if there are contrarian views. A little crazy, but very very interesting.
WAY TOO MUCH volatility, and as i have said multiple times (credit for consistency?)I just do not subscribe to PR's as a business strategy.
actually the bulk of mckessons business is selling to the drugstore trade. They sell across the yes a huge outfit. there has to be a po. mckesson has 30 med surge facilities that service hospitals etc. and 32 or 33 that service pharmacies.
a good account. no doubt.
AFTERTHOUGHT; THE SALES REP FIRM (BROKER) THAT CALLS ON THE CDS TRADE DESERVES HAZARDOUS DUTY PAY.
Wow, too bad. After a light cursory reading, I would personally not anticipate Walgreen's buying again any time soon. Just my opinion based on 45 years of consumer branded marketing and years of dealing with Walgreen's.
This was a bad plan or at least an ill conceived plan.
They are directly involved, they had to administer a payables dispute resolution. Others may want to gloss it over, or I may have missed something, but I believe this is toxic (again my opinion) you NEVER want to air your dirty laundry.
They know that money was a problem and the vendor sold them goods they did not or could not pay for.
This is not pretty. But again, maybe I may have missed something. Im going to a ball game folks.
Good luck.
thanks I will. btw if its the same vendor number any negative history will follow. very hard to hide past sins if not impossible. if there was bad history i would say its less than a 5% - 10% chance they sell them anything again unless you are P&G and THEY NEED YOU. lawsuit is always bad history. even if walgreen's was not directly involved.
clarification; inventory is charged out to stores at retail price, the PO is a control document internally, it creates an initial audit trail as well as an inventory control mechanism.
ok, if they had item discontinued before, and they have cleaned their account with retailers, they may get back in under a consignment scenario. However there would still have to be a purchase order. W/O a PO there is no receiving document. The PO will state terms including consignment. Having done a lot of business w Walgreen's and having been to their Chicago area HQ many times, i know those folks somewhat well. If they were DISC. It wll take an act of god to get them back in. They do rotate their buying staff thru various categories though. If it has been a long time, they may catch a break.
Heading out to see the Yankees / A's later so i may not be on after 3 pm or so.
hey dog, the pics clearly say the goods are on the way to retailers.
if its trial run why would they say its going to customers? who posted that and where did they get pics? The cases appear to be a lot larger than when i first glanced so qtys are likely higher than my earlier comments.
btw i just looked at some old docs and unless there is a change the quiet period is post effective on a registration statetment.
i am not familiar w penny stocks or even bull brd for that matter, but i have a call with my securities counsel today and will ask the question. If there is a quiet period though, it seems that it would have applied during the various iterations of the S-1. Did they issue PR's around that time? When i have submitted registration statements the quiet periods were 30 days post effective. But I will ask. Are they saying anything abut the PO's supporting the picture of a pallet at a warehouse going to retailers. That pallet looks to be around 60 cases +/- so probably 240 to 300 units. If that is the only pallet then your probably speaking about 80-100 retail outlets at 2 to 3 units per plus warehouse stock.
thats great, obviously now they can share PO info where goods are going.