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It's true, but it is imperative that the United States of America does not default under any circumstance on its debt obligations. It is tawdry behavior to use this issue as a political football, but that's how it works in Washington.
Typically, the party that controls the White House has had to take the difficult vote to raise the limit, while the other party was free to criticize. An analysis of the past 10 years of votes on the debt limit from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center shows the vote usually splits along partisan lines, with the president's party voting in support. We have never defaulted, but politicians have to appease their constiuents, so they vote for or against, but they've always made damn sure the bills are paid. Obama did vote against one of the raises under Bush for example, but if it had come down to his one vote, you can bet he would have voted differently.
Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 times and George W bush did it 7 times. In fact, Harry Truman (Dem) was the only President who did not raise the debt ceiling.
We can pay the interest just fine. The dollar, however weakened, is still the world's reserve currency. Our economy, however bad it gets, and our Treasury securities are still looked up to as the safest place to park funds. How much is too much debt? Ask Japan, this can go on for decades, as long as we can print, we haven't reached the limit. Congress is responsible for fiscal policy, but they can't restrain spending, so the Fed handles it thru monetary policy. No different than Europe, Japan, etc.
Regarding Syria, it was always about a Nat gas pipeline thru Syria. The pipeline is good for Saudia Arabia and bad for Russia. Russia avoided the war by taking away the motive. The rest of the World doesn't see us as chicken for letting Russia keep Syria in line. In fact, the rest of the World thought we were wrong to help Suadia Arabia get a pipeline. That's surely not over, but Russia has economic reasons to keep us out of Syria, and Saudia Arabia has economic reasons to bring us in. Time will tell, but don't kid yourself that it has anything to do with our strength or weakness. Money talks and BS walks.
Market doesn't see it like that. Right now the US has made commitments to pay $X to companies and individuals. Raising the debt ceiling will allow the US to sell treasury bonds to raise the capital to pay those bills. Whether or not the debt ceiling is raised, the US still owes that money.
Regarding the more debt, that is limited during the Congressional appropriation period, which will never happen during a shut down. Government needs to be open and working to limit debt. The shut down costs us more than being operational.
The tricky part with the market is the short run appears to be more concerned with taper or no taper, while the long run is concerned with more debt.
I think of buying UVXY like going to the emergency room knowing that you'll be charged a 1000% sin tax just for walking through the door vs. waiting until the next day to see a doctor. Just like alot of people go to the ER thinking they have an emergency, but find out it's no big deal, investors make that same mistake with the VIX all the time.
When the $VIX is in backwardation, investors see enough of an emergency to pay a premium for immediate protection. Backwardation is rare and doesn't usually last very long. Contango is the norm, meaning investors may buy protection for next month or beyond, but they won't pay the premium for this month because they don't see an immediate need.
The $VIX is in backwardation right now, but the market isn't really selling off in a hurry. So we're basically sitting in the ER waiting to find out if our emergency is real or imagined. If it's real, that's money well spent, and may possibly save our portfolio, but if it's imagined, we'll leave with a huge bill and the memory of a bad experience.
Nice charts - Thanks for sharing
VIX hitting backwardation again - link back for chart
VIX hitting backwardation again, link back for chart
CNTF needs a 1.58 break imo - volume is pretty good today, accumulation continues
INUV nice, thanks - I'm seeing 17 mill float, but I haven't verified
VVIX back under 100 and falling. We've seen this movie before. A deal could happen any time, but usually After hours and the market will ramp big time
VVIX cooling off, just fell back under 100
VVIX 105 and still rising - I believe the 52 week high is between 107-110, kinda hard to get the exact amount on my weekly chart
$VIX hit backwardation - rare as you know and doesn't usually last. VVIX is 104.17 and rising. $VIX:$VXV hit 101 but it's dropping a bit.
I think of this like going to an ER knowing that you'll be charged a 1000% sin tax vs. waiting to see a doc. Fear is taking over, and investors are paying a premium for protection.
$VIX is in backwardation currently - rare doesn't usually last, but it means fear has taken over. I think of this like going to an ER and paying a premium vs waiting to see a doc. Here's the chart to watch:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85000865
CNTF - probably just a matter of time. They have $4.87 in cash and they hold the patents Video Game Console makers will have to license to sell in China and China lifted the 13 year ban 2 days ago. Chartwise, $1.55 has been a tough cookie on the hourly, but the company hasn't released any news, they've only been interviewed by an analyst so far. The video game console market in China is expected to be around $9 billion, but no word yet what piece of that CNTF is expecting.
I was in GERN too. If you have time for a little research, but little time to watch a stock, take a look at CNTF. They are trading at $1.46ish, they have $4.87 in cash. They hold the patents that video game console makers will have to license to sell in China and China just lifted the 13 year ban. Sounds too good to be true? I dunno, sometimes I find stuff like this and I can't figure it out, but I buy a few tickets and kick myself later for not buying more.
CNTF $1.51 has been a tough cookie for it on the hourly. It would be nice to see a close over that, but just a matter of time imo. It should return to it's cash value in time, they usually do...
I just saw your post, not sure how I missed it. Haven't heard from you in a while. Hope you are well. What are you trading lately?
CNTF definitely could, I don't understand how a company can have $4.87 in cash and trade at $1.48, but especially a company that holds the patents to a $9 billion market. It's worth a few tickets to find out imo
But, That was before QE infinity. Did you know the last Gov shutdown caused the Monica Lewinski scandals? Unlike staff, unpaid interns stick around and pickup the slack during a shutdown.
HNSN I got back in on the dip. The funds have been pushing Med Device stocks and HNSN is a fav from that sector
He's the one who helped ZIOP become a nice pincher for us. The shorts he works for are too greedy, so we can work with that.
and CSUN
Are da boyz running solars before they tank the markets again?
CNTF - cool, it has 4 x the 10-day avg volume but sticking to that tight range for now. It always boggles my mind when companies trade way under their cash like that. I'm usually pretty conservative about it with a too-good-to-be-true feeling, but sometimes they are the best plays around, and I kick myself for not buying more.
ROX -good luck, it's been holding the EMA8 on the daily pretty well though, might not want it if it loses that trend.
Did you look at CNTF? it's trading at 1.47, and net cash per share is $4.87. The lift of the 13-year ban on video game consoles in China could be huge for them. Chart is so-so, but I like the spec and I'm interested in your take. I grabbed a starter on the dip this morning.
ABIO looking good, link back for chart
CNTF - this company is trading way less than cash and has the potential to see a huge increase in Revs due to china lifting the 13 year ban on video game consoles. - Link back for chart
Also note: over 3 X the avg 10-day volume so far today
CNTF, you bet - it had a good day Fri on the news but didn't really break out, so could churn or try again - no telling
Well said, this board has a lot of pros. Pros want to make money, and amatuers want to take credit. The amateurs come and go here, but the pros have been here for a while and keep on keeping on.
In that posters defense though, he/she is a free member, and if I'm not mistaken, they can't search posts, so they didn't realize you, Roy, and I have been posting ROX charts for a while. Having said that, the key difference between our post and there's is we're not asking for credit. We made good money on ROX, so we're content. Frustration usually shows up in posts when you miss the play or sell too early or the company does something stupid or shady.
Good judgement comes from experience and experience comes from poor judgement.
OCLR, thanks. I sold ZIOP too early, but took it to OCLR, so it's all good. Have a good weekend. Maybe congress will make a deal over the weekend and the markets can break out of this consolidation
ROYL got some nice volume in the past hour. Not in, watching
OCLR new HOD, link back for chart
ZIOP - it's a beaut! Too bad I already sold this morning :(