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I don't know what the rule is, probably more tax on capital gains. However, it is highly unlikely the market will crash on Monday. The signal I got is a very strong one and equivalent to March 11 and May 29. It is buy on the dip time again.
BTW, I revisted the guru site you posted and Gleno's guru Oscar site. It seems that your guru is not too sure about his proposal of a H&S while Oscar is sure about the cup and handle instead.
BTW, the Astro site I posted earlier was a trash. His prediction of June 25 crash has come and gone.
I have validated my AD work for this year so far.
Just don't be too committed in one direction.
Good luck
2bit
An intermediate term buy signal is out according to my AD study.
2bit
Oman,
Ur on cheap wine again...LOL
2bit
One day at a time...first 426 then 433...
Call me stupid, I still don't see the H&S. The only may be is the inverse H&S in the 60min chart that will take us to ~ 444-447 area
2bit
You,
I am not denying anything. I am not a bear nor a bull. Just that the probability of up direction is higher than down at this time. Again, as I have said, my A/D issues work kind of fall in sync with the T Theory. Therefore I am leaning towards that. Now a H&S formation is a turning point formation. If you have read Hurst's book you would notice that a H&S is just cycles formation within a turnng envelope. Right now I am not convinced that a turning point is at hand. I may post a chart later tonight.
good luck
2bit
I have 50% of my retirement account in equities and 50% in money market. I was debating whether to take all out to money market or all in equities. At this stage I am thinking about staging the rest into equities. The information I got from my A/D issues analysis is leading me that way....
2bit
so is Farrah Fawcett
2bit
Ya, Today is just like March 10. Another bull run will start. Fire ur paid gurus who still preach downturn...
2bit
did ur guru predict today's rise?
2bit
All indexes broke out and are in sync now
2bit
Hiker,
what is your read on AD...I see a very healthy advance
2bit
last year was gloom and doom
2bit
Ha, Two,
there is a third extension though...they will clean out the bears going into the fourth, then just about all the bears switch into bulls, they will take it down hard...LOL
2bit
There can only be two choices at this stage
(1) retest the upper channel line and goes up
(2) or fall back into the channel and goes down
breaking below today's low means it has already selected (2)
cheers
2bit
Nasdaq is leading up...
2bit
Bob,
It seems like all paid gurus advocate bearishness. Mind you, being in cash is not exactly short. That means he is not sure. Today's signal is flat to bullish. I find it refreshing that the TTheory guru made a special annoucement that a bull rally is developing. He must be seeing something that most of us don't. He is basing his analysis on AD oscillator and bands. I am also working on AD issues and interested to follow his thoughts to validate my findings. Most people will easily buy into the thought that the market must come down to go up. He is saying the market is continuing to go up. A theory most difficult to accept by most. But will see.
wish you luck
2bit
Gleno,
UR T Theory guru said today that the new bull T has already begun. If that is the case his counting of the cash build up phase was Jan/Feb and May/June. Looking at AD advances if continue at current pace he may be right. His target of SPX 890 has already been reached and in a couple of days new bull rally will start. Bears be aware.
2bit
Fed statement benign,
"WASHINGTON - The U.S. Federal Reserve says the recession is easing, but the economy likely will remain weak and keep a lid on inflation.
Against this backdrop, the Fed held a key bank lending rate at a record low of between zero and 0.25 per cent, and pledged again to keep it there for "an extended period."
Even though energy and other commodity prices have risen recently, the Fed predicted inflation will remain "subdued for some time."
This new language sought to ease Wall Street's concerns that the Fed's aggressive actions to revive the economy will spur inflation later on. "
2bit
I think the up-down-up stunt is in play now, if OEX 420 holds, the bulls will be happy
2bit
My take is weekly EMA21 held and hourly it has to close above EMA89. OEX 425 is a very important number. If it can break out of the channel, then it will swing up to next Bradley date of July 14. Intraday AD is quite positive, but I know better in a couple of days whether the above scenario will play out...but patience...if it turns back down here then will have to rethink
2bit
Wow, pattern violation....Bradley turn date?
2bit
Zilch...zero chance....durable goods no. good month to month but year to year it is still down....
2bit
Durable goods no. shows sign of recovery...it may just bust out of the channel today...and if the Fed only announces keeping interest rate unchange till next summer like Canada...the market will sky rocket....
will see
2bit
The odds are in favour of the bears now. If ur trading on the assumption of a H&S formation, then 410 by Jun 26, break out of the down channel to the upside to form the complex right shoulder by first week of July and come crashing down to complete the H&S target. This will play out the Bradley model. By Sept it will start to rise again.
This is the bear case. Now the bull case. According to T theory this is the cash build up phase. The last cash build up phase was about 2 months from Jan to Mar, therefore, I would not be surprised to see a sell-off of 2 months starting July to Sept before the next bull rally.
This satisfies everybody. Will see how it plays out.
2bit
What's next
410 or 436 but piss at 423 first..
2bit
Cheer up Bulls,
2bit
You,,
Thanks for sharing but not buying the H&S scenario. SPX 910 is support and NASDAQ is not conforming. The market will probably retest 937-940 area (give OMAN his 19 points) and fall because of the up channel and it will possibily follow fib no and not an H&S. His reading of the AD line is not exact, for the black line has not indicated a trend change. Further, I would be doubtful of his interpretation of the lagger MACD. Many make the mistake of using MACD to figure direction, as oppose to using price action. If price changes, you will see the MACD changes. For example, many look at MACD mid day Friday to interpretate a bearish representation but by EOD when price has gone up, MACD was bullish. Looking at price action Friday, it was bullish all day.
2bit
Hiker,
One alternative is watch the black line of Wilder's DMI ADX line, it is still curling down and not up to form a trend yet so one would argue that it would be a sideway market for now. Your observation was also good. Please alert us if you see things otherwise, thanks.
2bit
Oman,
For 19 SPX points that's less than 10 OEX point and is only going back to 440 retesting old high, no sweat, you will get it on this market upturn.
However, unless the situation changes, the declining issues are slowly overpowering the advancing issues.
You know that is what cheap wine will do to your far sight vision. LOL
Stay sober
2bit
Beer,
That depends on how sober one is ... LOL
2bit
My fractals are even more confusing....
Should I go long? or short?
2bit
The MMs are slaughtering the puts now....
2bit
RCKS, TWO,
I see today as May 27 and if OEX can burst through 435 we will see the market retest new high...except if the MMs decide to tank the market today real bad...
2bit
Two
today the mms are trying to inflict as much damage to the puts and calls....u can see it in action
2bit
yes thanks a million
2bit
Two,
You probably won't see market down too much before FOMC next Wednesday....indications are all up till Wednesday/Thursday ...
2bit
What was the SEC complaint about IHUB???
2bit
ya, lucky sob
2bit
NM, I feel for you, RIMM is getting crushed after hours..subs not good...it may just be an A,B,C corr and more down
2bit
I8R,sometimes it does not pay to be too cautious.I knew I should go long today, but clamped my hands down and waited till I saw good leading indicators numbers at 10am and ended up chasing the sucker. Then the day just dragged on, ended up making crump change.
Uh, let's see what tomorrow will bring...my targets 1,2 are both reached..expect a drop in the morning to 427ish and it better holds else becomes an A,B,C correctively wave scenario and more down. If it bounces at 427 then up to 434ish...then down it goes...
2bit