is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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hahaha.. there it is, ultimate faith in JB, that is the only proof, in other words there is NO proof the stack test was completed. JB said there was a "tentative" date scheduled for august. That means it may not have happened, and if it did happen, there is no guarantee that it passed.
well for one thing, not to make outrageous claims about profitability. The process is probably similar to the next guy's... but anybody that claims a profit margin of WTI-3 minus 10/barrel is simply not being realistic.
It helps that this is part of the work I perform professionally on a daily basis (Cost Analysis in Industrial Processes). but really anybody should be able to see this. The instrumentation that he is using? The engineering design behind it? Even the time of the operators (at $100/hour) mean that is does not add up.
Besides which, if it were that easy, any of the big oil companies would have done it...
Like I posted previously, the cost of a barrel of crude is composed of 5$ uplift cost, $45 exploration cost, and other costs for which I have a link. It sounds like Mr. Bordynuik was giving out (something similar to) the uplift number, in other words just the direct costs it takes to make a barrel of oil, not the plant and equipment, Overhead, etc.
how is the statement false? No one knows if the stack test is completed or not, to my knowledge. Calculating a percentage is meaningless, because there was no committed date to begin with.
that would correspond well with the "Exploration Cost" ($45) component of a barrel of crude. That makes the competitive cost structure just about the same between a barrel of crude and a barrel of pyrolysis oil. Somewhere on the web there is a link that has a pie chart with the exact numbers. I know the "uplift cost", which is the cost to lift the crude from the ground, is a measly $5. I have the link, I could post it.
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LOL!!!
just picking up this thread backwards.... don't understand it all.
I had to identify myself when I listened to the CC, and I gave the impression I was a shareholder, which I am not... otherwise I don't think I could have listened to it.
not at 110 barrels/day it is not...
well, i did not verify the 110/barrel per day figure... but assuming that is true, explain to me how it is included? It is not that complicated. what is wrong with my calculation?
took me awhile to understand what you are saying. It is somewhat convoluted, but clear after some thought. You are looking at the total cost and subtractring the figure for labor to see what is left. Not a bad approach. Can't really see anything wrong with it. Just could be explained a little better.
We used to use a figure of $100/hour for the cost of a professional person. And these operators would not be $10/hour people either. They would have to have some training and brains to watch the process.
Just considering one day of production... or one hour..
assuming 110 barrels a day is a 24-hour 2 or 3-shift operation.
Total Cost = $1100.
Salaries (assuming a figure of $80 all-in) = 24 X 2 X 80 = over 3K
assuming the 110 figure was for an 8-hour day...
salary cost = 8 X 2 X 80 = 1200.
More reasonable, i would say the cost of a barrel of pyrolysis oil is nmore like 40-50... factoring in the labor plus machine time, raw materials (catalyst), etc.
Some tell me how I am incorrect in saying that $10/hour only covers labor in the most optimistic scenario?
In comparison, the exploration cost of a barrel of crude is $45. THis is a component of the price of crude that is allocated to the ongoign exploration costs. In reality, the uplift cost (the cost of getting the crude from the ground) is like $5. Minimal. Hence, JB's angle.
But, realistically, that uplift cost is from wells that are producing and need no manual intervention...
so someone tell me I am wrong that the 10/barrel would only cover labor, and give some numbers to demonstrate your approach.
right...
when pigs can fly...
doesn't imply they are not workign on it... it depends how it is accounted for, maybe it is OPerations. NOt R&D.
don't have one other than it would have been announced, and my experience/ intuition. I just got the idea that they were not ready, mainly because they were still trying to figure out the control system, etc... as I have posted.
Whether or not I am correct we shall see "in the fullness of time". Nothing much else to go on but gut feel at this point.
your argument is wrong on many levels. First off, people make their own decisions. What is posted here is just some anonymous person's opinion, it is up to the investor to decide for themselves..
Beyond that, people who sold at 5 or 7$ are way better off now. If they still believe JBI will be successful, they can get 10x the number of stocks cheaply...
TH epoint of the negative posts was that the stock was not worth 5 or 7, the downfall had purely with JBI's inability to execute and the passage of time, not really on the merits of the business idea. The "fundamentals" have not changed.. therefore the fall had nothing to do with negative posts..
sounds like they are running out of money. How are the bulls going to feel about the argument that they should have pursued the tape business for whatever it was worth if they do have financial troubles?
what is most scary is that they will likely now not have their stack test in august as was forecast... again..
well first off if you look at what an ADA is, that group is under no obligation to continue. They have geographic rights for a period of time. Any money that has changed hands is refundable.
I would not be surp[rised if the figures they are workign with are simply not to be trusted. FO rone thing, it is not their money that is on the line at this point. They are likely waiting to see how things work out with the New York plant to decide if they want to proceed. Until then, they have no reason to look closely at the numbers and no real data to go by..
well, I just don't believe it. I find it interesting that posters would say that it comes from the Company as if it were the gospel truth. Since when?
There are very few comparable cost models out there, because this is such a new venture.
I am just skeptical because of my industry experience, but the LAST thing I would do is believe JBI without some kind of objective analysis.
More importantly, the volume of the operation, the volume he can sell... the extra logistics costs, handling the plastic...
and getting the price he says he can get? i am skeptical about that as well... where is the proof of it?
more to the point:
- have I traded successfully? .. no, not always...
- enjoying a story I believe to be a crime? yes I enjoy watching JBII but I don't believe it to be a crime/ scam...
- remembering their days of believing in something.. enjoying watching others fall for the scam... yes somewhat but i made other mistakes as well. and no I definitely DON't enjoy seeing others fall for JBII, not at all...
My main feeling with JBII is that the stock price got way overinflated for reasons I don't understand. Buyers should have realized that. At the current price level, it is more reasonable.
I believe some of the arguments presented as to the potential profitability and costs associated with JBII are far too simplistic. My posts have focussed on debating those points.
it would make an excellent Business School case... in Strategy, Financing, Stock Options, Investment, manufacturing, Green Technology, International Business, Strategic Sourcing, etc...
that is the crux of the matter, isn't it.? What you are saying is against basic market dynamics. The fundamental premise of any market is that any lone individual or group of individuals cannot influence the price of the product, in this case JBII. Hence if you go to the market and clean them out of oranges, they just get more oranges.,,.
I believe that to be true for JBII.
If I post a negative opinion and I am correct, I potentially saved someone some money. If that person decided not to buy and the stock consequently went down.
To believe otherwise would be a departure from reality. If you are a fervent positive poster and are here every day, you may be too emotionally wrapped up in the whole thing and this board is occupying way too much of your life. Likewise believing in people who post negatively for profit, etc..
Could be because you take the above too far..
well... speaking for myself I am out of ammunition on this particular Marine assignment. At this point there are too many unknowns about JBI, and there always have been. I just don't understand the economics of the refining/ oil business enough to know if he knows what he is doing. Quite frankly, since it all relies on a 50-year old secret catalyst and a lab report, what is there really to go on that is totally conclusive?
But, JBI has invested quite a bit of money. It is not like the software business, from where I come, where all it is is salaries. We are talking about capital equipment here, and investment.
On the other hand, IMO he has made MANY promises he has not kept and has glaringly said whatever he thinks will attract investment in the stock. That is not really a quality I want in a CEO where there is lots of risk involved. I think I am smarter than that. I want the absolute truth without any window dressing. And I want consistency and follow-through. The biggest example of lack of follow-through is not pursuing the much-touted tape business... to me that is simply irresponsible. It should have been money-in-the-bank.
It is easy to sit back and hammer away at JBI, but personally, I am out of ammunition. If I can't make a new point, I won't make any. But, on balance of probabilities, I remain negative on this stock... watching with interest.
don't know, i think that would be inconsequential...
like having a baby...
Quoi?
Not only is your post WRONG, it is COMPLETELY WRONG.
First of all, you should consider work days and not calendar days. This is something only a planner would know, so you can forgive yourself. After all, it is what I do all day at WORK (including today I might add...)
There are 22 working days in August. There are 4 working days left. So the Percent COmplete if this were a task would be 18/22 = 83%.
Moreover, the test is a one-time thing. Unless it has happened, you have accomplished nothing. For all you know it might not happen in August, making your math completely wrong.
That is like a gambler sho sits at a slot machine hoping he will win. The logic is that the longer he sits, the greater his chances are of winning. That is the fallacy that casinos like to point out is incorrect... it is what leads to compulsive gambling.
excellent article. One obvious implication of this is that the test is scheduled well in adgance with a firm date, exactly as I posted. Then my definition of a "tentative" test date is exactly right. THe whole thing is very well planned in advance. Not sure how much lead time is required, but resources are definitely booked.
So the tentaitve wording is used in case JBI is not ready, not because government people aren't available, or the other company involved in the testing.
thanks Steve.
well it looks like this stock is now tottering on the brink of another steep decent on Air JBII. With this huge volume and no price appreciation... LOOK OUT BELOW!!!
especially when it passes that .80 level, where all those restricted shareholders start to go underwater... almost like an emergency landing in the ocean...
I would advise those stockholders to get out before they need their scuba license..
when pigs can fly....
issue is... there must be some awful by-product when you turn plastic into fuel...
ever burned plastic on a campfire? ugh...
otherwise i must observe that your point is a bit lame there Steve..
february 29, the next time there is a leap year, or in 2012, which ever comes first.
My reasons for not wanting to invest in JBII:
http://www.buffettsecrets.com/sticking-to-what-you-know.htm
are best expressed by Warren Buffet, who benefited greatly from my tutelage...
I am jus tnot an oil industry expoert.. er.. expert. sorry.
Likewise JB knows nothing about what he is getting into and is learning the hard way at investor's expense..
overvalued. for one thing, time is working against him. he has to work at even breaking even before making any money. he should be doing tapes..
speaking of which... at $22/tape can he even make money at that? isn't it labour intensive? if the tape reader is costing $100/hour... hwo can he make money reading tapes.?
good point tech, the refineries prefer large quantities... I can't imagine P2O being able to procvide large quantities. You hit the nail on the head.
Why doesn't someone from this board simply go to a refinery and make an appointment with purchasing and ask them whether they would be interested in pyrolysis oil? Have they ever been approached before? Would they buy it? How does it work? I am certain they havve production schedules they have to meet, locked-in contracts, preferred suppliers, standards, etc...
I would, but am simply too busy with work and other professional commitments. I would not buy this without doing that... I dis this for a steel mill once, it was really interesting..
Not only am I gainfully employed (not as some people would have you think), I am also incredibly busy.. (I am a consultant!!)
I will do this in January, when my current contract is up, if I am not snapped up with someone else...
Good luck all..
i have trouble reconciling an exploration cost of $45/barrel (that is included in every barrle of oil delivered to a refinery) with this economics..
I would not invest in this company unless I had oil industry experience and understood it better. It is not as simple as it is made out to be...
I really don't know. Knowing what you don't know is as important as what you do know.
I do know that it is a good deal more complicated than we have been led to believe. It would be dependent on the type contract and the volume that is available. All we have is an off-hand comment by JB, to the best of my knowledge...
My best guess is that WTI is a spot price and that JBI might be able to get that in small quantities. I would have to interview a purchasing guy in a refinery to find out...
anyway I really don't know.
you must swear alot. I never have posted about soybeans and JB is not running a beanery. Just because some other business makes a profit with expensive feedstock does not mean that JBI will automatically make a profit with cheap feedstock. You cannot compare apples with oranges...
well i guess it really depends on whether that basic assumption of WTI - 3 is true now isnèt it? I don't think it is. If it was it would just be too easy. I don't believe the basic cost and revenue numbers.
and the cost of feedstock is inconsequential yes.