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After seeing so many outrageous short term price predictions, this one is kind of refreshing.
It well could be over a $1 in 12 to 1800 months as long as these things happen.
Over a dollar anywhere from 1 to 150 years? Talk about not going out on a limb.
Filed on Friday, 8/5:
Response by Class Plaintiffs Representing Holders of Dime Litigation Tracking Warrants in Support of Motion of Certain Dime LTW Holders, Pursuant to Bankruptcy Code § 1102, for an Order Appointing an Official Committee of Dime LTW Holders
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229110805000000000004.pdf
DB, PM sent to you -
Can someone post a level 2 shot? My provider is having technical issues this morning. Thanks.
Bluzie2 - thanks for your comments <EOM>
It was a 421,500 share trade. Click on 'Trades' at the bottom of the screen (or click the link below) and you should be able to see it.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&symbol=DIMEQ
Wow is right. Did you notice who the MM's were? I see the usual suspects there now. DOMS on the bid at .46, and NITE on the ask at .48.
Did anyone see who the mm's were for the 500,000 share block that went off at .45 today? I couldn't watch level 2 at all today. Thanks.
I routinely have to call Ameritrade to get them to submit my buy orders.
Here's the routine. I pull up level 2 to see where the bids and asks are. I'll place the order at a price somewhere above the highest bid. I'll wait a couple of minutes to see if my bid appears on level 2. It never does. Call Ameritrade, explain the situation, they put me on hold. While on hold I see my order appear on level 2. Call taker comes back, says they had to call the 'order desk' to 'get the order posted'. I ask why it always happens when I try to buy DIMEQ and not other securities, they essentially say that they really don't know.
My curious to know if this happens to anyone else?
EC's disclosure statement out on Pacer. Just glanced at it now, will read the whole thing in a bit.
From page 8:
C. Will the Holders of Equity Stock Interests Receive a Distribution under the Equity
Committee Plan?
Yes, the holders of Equity Stock Interests will receive a distribution under the Equity Committee Plan. The
ultimate amount of this distribution, however, is dependent upon the total enterprise valuation of Reorganized
Tronox. The Equity Committee Plan is based on a valuation range of $1.2 to 1.3 billion, with a midpoint of $1.25
billion. The chart below identifies a range of possible estimated recoveries for holders of Equity Stock Interests
based upon the valuation range. For additional information regarding the Equity Committee’s methodology and
valuation of Reorganized Tronox, please refer to the Valuation Analysis attached hereto as Exhibit C.
Valuation of Reorganized Tronox
$1.2 billion $1.25 billion $1.3 billion
Plan Equity Value Per Share $18.43 $19.73 $21.03
Estimated Recovery for Equity Stock
Interests in Class 7 Per Share
$1.39 $2.58 $3.75
Was watching level 2 a bit this morning, and I believe our friends at Cantor Fitzgerald picked up another 500,000 at .50.
A few million is best case, IMO, given the information in the court docs through March. I haven't looked at them since then because what I saw in them at that time didn't warrant looking into it more.
And you're right, the EC knows about the Fitzgerald case.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50679712
I looked at level 2 a number of times today, and I saw CANT sitting on top of the bid every time, with a 10000 size lot. They've been buying for weeks now. Seems like a good sign to me.
Cantor Fitzgerald:
Cantor Equity Capital Markets, established in 1965, has grown to become one of the largest and most recognized players in the global equities arena. Our team brings unparalleled expertise and superior service to a client base of more than 5000 major institutional investors and corporations worldwide.
http://www.cantor.com/sales_and_trading/equity_capital_markets
natomas - the quick answer is that the same lawyers got the Solutia shareholders a piece of the new company stock. Solutia was in MUCH worse shape than Tronox. They didn't get much, but Solutia was so far in debt that getting ANY piece of the new equity was impressive.
With that said, I practically gave up on the Tronox EC lawyers until yesterday. Seemed to me they weren't very active, but yesterdays statement is a very strong one, and bodes well for Tronox shareholders.
Of course, all IMO.
MM LABS seems to be buying them.
LaBranche Financial Services, LLC provides TotalAccess execution and clearing services to institutional investors, professional traders and NYSE floor member brokers.
Not a big deal 2K10, they are indeed creditors.
I just emailed subscriptions at The Journal Record to see if there's a way to purchase the online version for less than the 52 week rate. I'll let you know what they say.
$115 when I looked last night, can't get to finra for some reason this morning.
Thanks for the info GP -
I've put the court documents up on Scribd. They are in four separate files, each 100 pages long.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/32080130/Tronox-vs-Fitzgerald-Court-Documents-pages-1-To-100
http://www.scribd.com/doc/32080137/Tronox-vs-Fitzgerald-Court-Documents-pages-101-To-200
http://www.scribd.com/doc/32080150/Tronox-vs-Fitzgerald-Court-Documents-pages-201-To-300
http://www.scribd.com/doc/32080159/Tronox-vs-Fitzgerald-Court-Documents-pages-300-To-404
FYI, I contacted this service to get the court docs up through 3/22/10. Usually a two day turnaround, more if the docs are greater than a year old (then they aren't kept at the courthouse, and have to be retrieved from off site storage).
Docs are scanned into .pdf's and emailed. Costs just over a dollar a page. Great customer service.
Reno/Carson Messenger Service Inc.
185 Martin St
Reno, NV 89509
775-322-2424
fax 775-322-3408
www.renocarson.com
Tibby, can you substantiate this statement with a link to the posting? I have spent a lot of Google time trying to find out the value of the estate, and so far I've come up with numbers no where near 1.5 billion. Please help us all out and back up your statement with evidence, because until you (or someone else) does that, the 1.5 billion number is nothing but a rumor.
"The value of the Fitzgerad estate can be substantiated with the courts in Washington state. I was made aware of the amount of 1.5 billion through a posting."
I see CANT back on the B's, sniffing at the bid. They were there around .90 at the start of last months breakout (on the A's and the B's). Could be a good sign if they're buying again.
I've got all of the court documents for the Fitzgerald case from day one through 3/22/10. If anyone wants them, PM me an email address.
mr herzog - I don't think a direct correlation can be made between bond price and amount of new equity the bondholders will receive. At some point the bondholders are paying a premium for the quality of the new equity.
Much better to have equity in a company with a bright post bk future like Tronox (clean balance sheet, growing sales, good industry, etc.), then to have equity in some other post bk companies that are out there.
Didn't get a chance to look at level 2 until this afternoon and saw that market maker MARI was on the ask for the B's. Not a lot of total volume for the day, but good to see them there none the less:
We are Merriman Curhan Ford (NASDAQ:MERR) a financial services firm focused on fast-growing companies and their institutional investors. Our firm provides investment banking, equity research, institutional services and corporate & venture services.
http://www.mcfco.com/AboutUs/index.php
prc, thanks for getting to the bottom of this. There is a lot of misinformation on other boards about the real meaning of the numbers, so thanks for getting the facts.
prc, my purchase on the 8th was long. You're right, I could have purchased from someone who sold them short. If that's the case, then the amount that was sold short would be included in the 'Short Volume' number, because that was short activity. Covering should also be considered short activity, and should be included in the Short Volume total.
I'm having a hard time getting my mind around what these numbers really tell us. My knee jerk reaction is that a large Short Volume ratio is 'bad', but it wouldn't necessarily be bad if say all the activity was covering, and all of those sellers were profit takers after a run up. That scenario could very well indicate strength.
Date|Symbol|ShortVolume|TotalVolume|Market
20100408|TRXBQ|67300|67540|O
I’m not sure how to interpret those numbers either, prc. Here is my guess.
For example, here is the REG SHO data for TRXBQ for April 8th.
Date|Symbol|ShortVolume|TotalVolume|Market
20100408|TRXBQ|67300|67540|O
The difference between the two reported numbers is 240. I personally bought more than 240 shares of TRXBQ that day (long).
It seems to me that the short volume number indicates ‘all short sale trades’, meaning short initiation (borrowing shares, either naked or not naked), and short position termination (selling shares, or covering). If it doesn’t indicate ‘all short sale trades’, and only indicates the number of shares for ‘short positions initiated’, then the number that is reported is incorrect since I purchased more than the 240 shares on 4/8.
If my guess is correct, and the short volume number indicates ‘all short sale trades’, then a large percentage of short volume could indicate a lot of short covering, which bodes well for longs (at least better than a lot of short initiations, I think).
Thoughts?
secolton -
I've been wondering the same thing since June. It puzzles me so much that I think I might be missing something. I review my DD about every other day, and I always come to the same conclusion: I believe this stock will be trading much higher in the future, we have a great chance at a meaningful recovery, and I should buy more.
ICC Capital Management still holds all of its 21,961,432 shares as of 12/31/09.
http://www.mffais.com/cem
They've been on top since 12:31 est.
SEAB (Seaboard Securities) on the bid:
Seaboard Securities specializes in performing high quality agency transactions and executions for large institutions. Staffed by seasoned industry professionals with 25 years of experience, Seaboard has been an NASD member firm since 1958. During our long history, we have earned a reputation for excellence in which we take great pride.
http://www.seaboardsecurities.com/about.html
Ikimota - I think we need to be careful and not disclose how many shares we own on the board. It might come back to bite us down the road. There will be a time to disclose this info, but we're better off doing it privately, and in a coordinated effort. It will be an important part of petitioning the Trustee for an EC as we move forward.
Yes, I have noticed the same thing. It's very frustrating.
I think we're still a number of months away from the share price appreciating significantly. Remember, we still haven't seen the result of the Manicouagan sale, and its resulting payoff of the DIP financing. That itself is a huge step, but then couple that with the future resolution of the pension issue. When that 1.3 billion comes off of the books, the equity portion of the balance sheet will be very attractive.
Also remember, the company is taking advantage of all of the benefits that chapter 11 affords. It is selling minor assets, resolving contract issues, and generally improving the bottom line little by little. Over time, the little things add up, and will eventually be reflected in the balance sheet.
The only downside I see is that this is a complicated bk case of a huge company, involving two bk courts, and I just don't see the share price moving up in the near future like the longs would like it to (including me). But for those who are willing to wait, I think the reward will be huge.
All my opinion of course, but I've placed a large bet on ABWTQ.
I didn't look at the volume, I just grabbed the last price. Thinly traded is right. Five trades in all of 2009 for the 2023's!
Thanks for the info MC.
Bond prices FYI:
MESA.GB 6/16/2023 $13.212
MESA.GD 2/10/2024 $15.00
No activity on them today. Can't find a price for the 2012, will keep looking.
Thanks for the info newtech.
Did anyone see what MM(s) bought those B shares? No access to L2 today. Thanks...