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Monday's ASM should be interesting. If it goes like last year where they did the vote gave the results and then said "oh there are no questions" meeting over Bye!
If that happens who knows where the SP goes?
Remember have your control numbers ready to log in to the virtual ASM.
I wonder if they will be serving virtual donuts? LOL
There is doom and gloom in all areas of the market. Funds are slowly moving from equities to cash. No one is buying equities especially small cap yet to reach potential stocks. It looks like in the last 7 trading session volume in CDMO has been 300,000 more than normal. With some funds going to larger percent in cash there are no buyers so the price has to come down to where someone steps up and buys.
We have a brand new drug manufacturing facility capable of generating $400 mil in revs. with 30% margins. If these guys can't run it generating these numbers then someone will step up and buy it and either run it at those numbers or integrate it in to other holdings utilizing many synergies. This asset is worth 3 to 5 times more than the current market cap indicates in the right hands. Don't know if the current crew is the right hands but this asset will not just wither away and be worth nothing. Institutional investors will not let that happen they want a fair return for there investment.
$400mil X 30% margin = $120 CF / 63mil shares = $1.90 eps X 15pe = $28.50/share
We're trading close to 1 times potential future revenue?
Face it Cf, your a one pony show!
The COLOSSO POS show LOL
No depth or analysis every offered
Do you want to go through life known as the POS show? HAHA
Looks like I hit a nerve with you because you know that you haven't offered any analysis here yet
COLOSSO POS is not analysis!
I asked you to offer analysis on revenue, new orders guidance and you can't HAHA
You add nothing to this forum except yelling COLOSSAL POS every time the stock goes down!!!
You offer no analysis of why you think what you do. You have done NO due diligence that you have offered here.
You or I have no idea where CDMO will be in 6 months. I could be at your $4 or it could be at my $30. The difference between us
is that I have ponied up my own cash and you have not. That makes your predictions worthless!!!
Why don't you give us some real analysis like your exact prediction on below topics? Exact numbers and reasons why?
Q2 Revenue
Net new business orders
New backlog
If revenue guidance will change
If you can't do that then you are just here to antagonize
If you would have traded a portion of your CDMO shock the last 2 years you would not be down much. I did and I'm only a few dollars a share down now.
Cubbear is a person with no skin in the game so is noise in the background. He doesn't matter!
There is no defeat here because it's not over!!! Nothing to accept. We've just competed a major manufacturing facility let them run it to see if there will be success here.
Someone is trying to buy us on the cheap.
We were over $30 for a few weeks Nov 2021. We may be near $4 for a while in the future. Who's a better predictor?
I agree! Although I wish he/she would give a little more analysis then just COLOSSAL POS.
When Avid comes back like I believe it will, I will renege on the premise that a broken clock is correct two times a day
With the way the share price is going, if it continues at some point
Nick Green should change his name to Steven King.
Joseph Carleone should change his name to Carlton Johnson
The company name should be changed back to Peregrine Pharmaceuticals
All in good fun on a disappointing day!
Avid Bioservices Completes Construction of New, World-Class Cell and Gene Therapy Development and Manufacturing Facility
https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-completes-construction-new-world-class-cell-and
I am not from California. After 8 years of traveling to OC once a month for my job I retired last April and no longer go there.
I am glad I got to attend 5 or 6 ASMs. The last one in 2022 I was the only person to attend. I wasn't ready with a list of questions because I thought I would only have a chance to ask 1 or 2. But I did interact with top management and BOD. I am still here and own more shares than then because I believe most people at Avid are honest, decent people trying to build an extraordinary CDMO. I know I have questioned Nick's performance sometimes but I still think he will pull off what he said his goal is of $400 mil rev with +30% margins.
I look forward to early Dec. and second quarter results.
Avid Bioservices/RBC Capital Markets Fireside chat replay
Heard back from Stephanie, She said they are waiting for RBC to deliver the link. When they receive it they will post it on the website.
I email Stephanie and asked why Societal (another company she does work for) has a fireside chat right after Avid and is putting a replay of the chat on their website and Avid is not.
A few times she answered my email but not lately. I'm not holding my breath.
I wonder if she would answer Larry Fink's email???
Stephanie's other company (Societal) that she does work for offers a webcast of the conference.
So it must be a Nick thing not to broadcast it???
To access the live webcast of the RBC fireside chat, please visit the “Events” page in the Investor section of the Company’s website at www.societalcdmo.com. Additionally, a replay of the webcast will be available on the “Events” page of the Societal website for at least 14 days following the conference.
https://ir.societalcdmo.com/press-releases/detail/263/societal-cdmo-to-participate-in-rbc-capital-markets-virtual
I think that's why Joseph Carleone bought 20,000 shares. Probably getting an ear full from Institutions.
Got to put his money where his mouth is.
Here is an interview with Oksana Lukash, VP of People at Avid Bioservices at was posted today.
She's kind of odd IMO
https://player.captivate.fm/episode/42fda742-8bb8-4616-b0fb-d9193ec6e7c9
Come on Nick, show us your confidence in your plan and buy 20,000 shares like your boss.
Finally
A month ago who would have sold out at $15/ share? Very few or probably no one.
Today who would sell out at $15/share??
Nothing has changed, the value of CDMO remains the same.
IMO someone with a lot of shares(BR,V or ?) is messing with shareholders minds to buy CDMO as cheap as possible.
My question is was Nick and the BOD in on the build and buy cheap plan from the start?
The sweet financing plan kind of just fell in place when Nick arrived, wondering who’s behind that?
At what price will other institutional shareholders go along?
IMO a suitor is working with MM's to drive down SP to see how many shares they can get before filing.
Just my guess. The BOD and top Management makes too much in buyout and change of control situation
Between March 2021 and October 2021 about 130 millionshares traded between appx. $21 -$30 per share.
That's when I think most institutions increased their holdings to where we are at today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CDMO/history?period1=1600473600&period2=1695081600&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo&includeAdjustedClose=true
Interesting article on the current CDMO market.
Published yesterday.
https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/industry-news/How-Biological-Contract-Industry-Advanced-In-2023
No, you could have sold CDMO in the $30's but you sold too early and took a loss. I've traded a portion of my holdings in the past two year and stilll sit + good here and just put in an order for 2000@$9.50
You sold at a loss be a big boy/girl and take your loss!! instead od bugging us longs because you can't live with your sell 9 years ago.
From a little bear who hasn't own stock since 6/2/2014. Lost his shirt on a PPHM/CDMO trade that he sold way too early. If held a little longer would have made a profit. So sad a person can hold a grudge so long.
Nick has refered to Avid's business as "Lumpy". If CDMO shares drop below $10. One would think Nick would buy 10,000 shares on the open market if he truely believes his "Lumpy" scenario.
Maybe we should refer to Nick as "Lumpy Nick" until he buys some shares on the open market?
If I remember correctly the share price was about $26 when I attended the 2021 ASM. Nick gave a very convincing presentation about the expansions. At the time the new revenue total est. was $380 million and with 30% margin it was about $114 million free cash flow resulting in about $1.90 per share earnings/year. Now two years later 2024 FY revs est. is $145-$165 mil and we're struggling to breakeven. Go figure.
The last in-person ASM was two years ago and I was the only person to show up. Last years was virtual and they cut of the meeting because there were no questions??? This years is virtual also. Nobody knows if questions will be allowed?
Reading the Def 14A It seems that the BOD and Top Management has developed cozy high paying positions for themselves at CDMO.
Nicks total compensation package has skyrocketed 2021-$2,845,000 2022- $6,181,000 2023- $6,461,000 Def 14A page 37
Nick is protected if there is a change of control event Total $9,655,000 Page 42
The BOD are well taken care of... each one has total compensation value of around $220,000 yearly plus all expenses paid. Page 17.
I don't mind paying these people for Success, but we are very far from a successful outcome yet. We seem to be rewarding before any rewards are due IMO.
Have our BOD and Top Management been setting up a gravy train situation like the old management of PPHM did for years? I don't know but one has to wonder????
The little bear has no other stocks! He/she lost a lot of money on PPHM/ CDMO years back because of selling too early. Never want Avid to succeed because didn’t trade right. Been carrying hate for Avid ever since
The bear is smoking something funny this AM. How about some specifics on CDMO revenue, new business and backlog???
So easy to POS your way through life!
Amazing volume lately
One week to go? Sept 30th? Didn't the move year end CC a week June 29th in 2022 to June21st 2023
I haven't been to Tustin since March before I retired. The last time I drove by the power plant was competed on the SW corner of the Myford building and the two truck size Trane generators were still right around the corner from the new power plant. I am sure if they have power issues in Socal Avid has plenty of self generated power to smoothly continue operations.
Sorry can't figure out how to post a picture of the power plant and generators.
But it has been proven by unnamed stock market experts that if you yell "colossal pos" then everything else you say is factual, so no need for proof.
Try trading some shares with a $3-4 spread between what you buy it for. I've been doing it the last year and a half. Has been a little gold mine.
As they say, why buy the cow when you're getting the milk for free.
Hope we're not setting up another gravy train like the last crew.
Of course the deal was a no-brainer when it was created, and remains a a no-brainer until Sept 2025.
Your not concerned about when and how the notes are unwound in 25 months?
If we'll have the required free cash over the next 25 months to cover the obligation?
If we don't have enough cash to cover the obligation then the dilution effect of issuing shares to cover the obligation?
The other thing that has not been discussed is the fact the notes are on the balance sheet as "long term" debit. At what point does that turn into "current debit"? That could mess up our working capital and effect our ability to borrow money at market interest rates?
Convertible notes are debt and we have to pay the note holders pretty soon. we have to come up with the cash or issue more stock.
I read note holders may exchange anytime after September 15,2025 ( a little over 2 years way)
Can we generate $125mil in cash after operations in two years? Not with $145-$165mil of revenue in FY2024. We would have to do $500mil in revenue in next 24 months at 25% margin at minimum to generate that kind of cash. Not with guidance of $191mill in revenue for the next 15 months. So issue more shares resulting in delusion of share value?
https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-inc-announces-pricing-125-million-offering
The notes will mature on March 15, 2026, unless earlier repurchased, redeemed or exchanged. Before September 15, 2025, noteholders will have the right to exchange their notes only upon the occurrence of certain events. From and after September 15, 2025, noteholders may exchange their notes at any time at their election until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately before the maturity date of the notes. The notes will be settled in cash, shares of the company’s common stock or a combination of cash and shares of the company’s common stock, at the Issuer’s election.
Glad CDMO isn't involved with HGEN. What a disaster!