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Then I am taking some too
If Joe at Repros announces he's taking proellex for his
uterine fibroids..I am definitely going to worry!
p.s...he didnt use "slam dunk" even once yesterday...
Very strange call buying in size today...cant believe
anyone would pay for the 10 strike....not sure if someone
is up to something or I wonder if a short hedge fund is
required to have some upside protection by their margin
lender...
Dewophile....sorry I didnt see it in time.....
I believe the other questions were addressed on the call...
rfj...you still a fan of Repros?
Conference call Monday...I plan to be on the call...
any particular questions that need to be addressed that
havent already been discussed??
Is it just me or does it seem strange to release earnings
on a Friday after the close with a call on the following
Monday??
Ethan...I totally agree with you....none of my comments
suggested that they were going to bring these drugs to market
themselves....
AKASID...i am just saying what i believe after conversations
with mgmt....He has repeatedly said he believes his franchise is
worth 1BB or so...with proellex comprising about 80% of
that value...he cant sell his company unless the market
runs the stock to a level from which to get the 100 to 150%
premium on a stock buyout deal...SO...i think he partners
proellex....starts to receive the cash flow from sales...
continue to develop androxal...license that drug for whatever
he can....then arrange a sale of both drugs..this process
could take quite a while...
And if there really are multiple interested partners right
now...he should be able to get the terms..(up front cash..
bigger milestones...better % royalty on sales) for a
licensing deal......if BP really is into this drug then
he should be able to get a deal he wants.....if he cant
get his terms met...then I think its questionable how
interested BP really is......so far we only have his
word that BP is interested....I havent heard it anywhere else..
as they say....time will tell.....
if there's potential for a bidding war..we should see
the early signs of that in joe getting a very nice
licensing/partnership deal now...if no deal and an issuance
instead...I think that says all we need to know about
how interested BP really is
It comes from the reality that a buyout in this space is
only done at a premium of 100 to 150% over the prevailing
market cap....if Repros stock doesnt appreciate up to an
appropriate level from which 150% premium buyout gets us
to a level that Joe will accept..then we are forced to play
it out from a licensing royalty arrangement......we will
have to take a long term perspective..generate eps and
hopefully the stock will trade at an appropriate multiple
to that eps to get the stock price much higher....
AKASID....a partnership doesnt really impact the final
outcome of an outright sale....if he strikes a partnership
deal..either the partner or another company would purchase
the NPV of the future cash flows according to the terms of
the partnership....I think its highly likely he plays it
out for androxal as well....so i think what happens is the
buyer of the proellex franchise, also purchases the NPV
cash flows from an androxal licensing deal...which is why
I stated a long time ago that I think we dont get a buyout
deal until after 2010...
Furthurmore, I am thinking that the end game is no longer
a buyout..we may have to play this as shareholders receiving
the licensing cash flows over a much longer time frame...
Does anyone know if Repros is presenting at the AUA meeting
this month and who is presenting??
No land in sight......dead wind....slack tide...sharks
lazily circling.......WAIT...LOOK....if we cast off some
dead weight thats down in the brig (DD comes to mind)..maybe
that will get us moving...on the other hand maybe we need
his hot air to billow our sails!
I say let Dew gloat....he finally got something right!!..
good job!....now if he could just add value to this board..
Question....I believe we have endo 2B results due in 1 or 2 months.....Are we still anticipating either a financing or
a licensing deal by end of June?...or is the time frame for
that going to be later this year.....
ALso....after this endo2b...is next big data the anemia results
in Q4?
There goes Joe and his shtick again....
Speaking with confidence about his drug programs and then
buying more shares on the open market.....I hate CEO's like
that.....I just wish he'd dilute the hell out of his existing
shareholders like GTCB...
My guess is we have to wait for the P3 results from the
first completed chronic indication..late 2nd half 2009
Is it just me or is anyone else sick of seeing this stock gravitate
right back down to 8.20??
I think the important aspect is that he continues to add to
his existing stock holdings via open market....At least he isnt
using every stock surge to cash out of options and owned stock..
I think that is a sign he is in as a shareholder and not
as a money-grabbing CEO...( does M Gold come to mind?)....
And I think the above fact casts some doubts on the theory that
he is using his "schtick" to keep an elaborate scheme up to continue
to collect his 400m salary.....He would gain much more by
selling his stock and options (600m shares) and cashing them
out at 12 to 15 dollars per shares then he would ever hope to
get from an additional few years at salary...
quiz....when was the last time RPRX closed at 10 or higher??
quiz 2...was it before or after DEW had an intelligent post to
the RPRX board?
Fudoo....I suggest you have no idea what the correct vol
is for a 5 or 7 yr quote for dndn..its certainly not the
implied vol for 2009 (fed decision)...if you doubt that..
go get a two sided quote for a 5/7 year dndn option....
Lets just say that after the fda decision...vol drops WAY
down on this stock...so the 5 or 7 year vol is no way near
the binary event vol for 2009...
sorry for the multiple posts...
OK...Dew got it right.....
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut......
Now Dew, how about "at least a half a dozen times"??...
you never respond when you are dead wrong do you?
Sid,,,good post.....I think your points are very salient...
JP isnt willing to sell right now ONLY because the market
isnt awarding his company a market cap anywhere near what
he thinks it may be worth,,,and he can only get a premium
of 100% (maybe 150% if lucky) to the current market cap at
any given time,,,,However if the BP interest is what HE says
it is...he should be able to structure an advantageous
licensing deal to get us over the p3 events....if he cant
get a licensing deal then I think his assertion that several
BP are keenly interested is suspect...
Question for the group...
Lets assume that androxal is not going to get developed by
Repros...
What do you think the value to Repros is for a successful
Proellex across anemia and 1 of the chronic indications??
ioio......thanks for reinstating my post....
I thought i had valid comments.....
I thought we had a close over 10 for sure today...only to
be hammered down late in the day.......maybe tomorrow....
Why did my post get deleted earlier today??
AKASIDNEY....you are spot on....I challenged Dew's assertion
of at least a half a dozen slam dunks and needless to say
Dew's non-reply exposed him to be a flagrant error-ridden
poster....kudos to you for an intelligent factual post..
Dew can you list all actual uses of slam dunk in the
presentation?...you said "at least a half a dozen times"
please be specific and note all 6 or more....
I cant wait for your response.....
I think GTCB may have used the words "damn slunk" to try
and describe some of their trial results//
put on a happy face and take a chill pill....its a nice
holiday weekend!!
Hey there DEW....
For a guy who touts gtcb...a broken down ...overly diluted
biotech stock...you are really one to talk.....say what you
may..but the fact is Joe is very shareholder friendly...
VERY LOW dilution as compared to your vaunted GTCB...
You said 'run when a ceo says he has a good working relationship with
the fda'......would you rather they say they have a terrible
relationship with the fda?
Or maybe we should fault him because he appears confident
in the data results to date...(ie his shtick)..I submit
that GTCB's shtick is heavy anti-shareholder dilution
tactics...
You have provided absolutely nothing of value to the RPRX
message board...your vague, totally subjective remarks
concerning "scary new IND anemia requirements"...offhand
comments about the ceo and your perception of his tactics...
etc,,,are nothing more than meaningless opinions based on
your emotions.....
Why dont you provide some real scientific insights into
their potential products...trials....data results...etc..
maybe akin to some of the insights that dewophile provides...
Or maybe take your brilliant insights to the gtcb management
and with your help they can get the drug development advanced
enough to get the share price back to .60 cents...
(after the reverse 1 for 3)
Say something of substance here or say nothing at all...
DocBanker...
After your conversation with Joe....what is your gut feel
with regards to licensing deal versus stock issuance?....
Doc...I spoke with joe a few weeks ago.....I think it is very instructive to
really try and pin him down with regards to doing a financing or a
partnership....I argued to him, that if he indeed has keen interest on the
part of big pharma, its time to do a licensing deal even if he cant get every
single thing he desires...a well constructed deal would prove that bp
believes in the drug and would put an immediate floor under the stock price
.....maybe we dont get the ultimate 1bb buyout but at least we get a very
nice outsized return for shareholders....and really query him with regards to
how he sees the process play out for his ultimate goal......after my last
conversation, I wasnt exactly thrilled with the tone nor the shifting strategies...
Nerf,
Considering that rprx has closed below 10 everyday except
for 1 since nov 19......thats 71 days....average volume
almost 100,000 shares perday...I'd say they would have
no problem accumulating those shares....seems to be plenty
of willing sellers.....
Nerf...message 3483 has the link
OT...stay on top of dvax and flml boys.....both may be
heading higher....maybe a lot higher..
OT...Isnt it amazing Dew never did come back with anything
substantive regarding the trial design after all his SCARY
ind comments??.....what a joke......and how about his comments
that you should run whenever a ceo says he has a good working
relationship with FDA..I guess he'd rather say they have an
absolutely horrible relationship with the fda....hmmm I wonder
what relationship the .75..Oops.....71cent GTCB ceo has??