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MCU has an SPA that seems to match exactly those criteria in the P2 that show high statistical significance. Buy it at 1.16 now or wait for P3 data release early next year and buy it for 3.5.
First we should call the company and try to verify exactly how MI will be measured and how that corresponds to the data from P2. Trying to raise 20 mil for the P3 trial they actually raised 25 mil. Some institutions believe.
This drug is designed to give the patient a healthier heart post-op. Reducing deaths in the first 30 days post surgery would be nice too but unnecessary for stat sig.
Aggrastat sales topped 1 mil in December with a new sales force. It averaged 750K last year with noone selling it. It tops 3 mil in the EU every month. So far we don't know what constitutes breakeven here in the US. The jury is out.
The positive or negative prospects for MCI far outweigh any plus or minus that Aggrastat will have on share price.
Dave
Re mph/mcu mortality from iwfal. That is extremely important information. I'll probably sell if true. Where can I read about it?
BTW, I agreed with your earlier statement that nowhere in writing is it established that the protocol calls for an MI definition including peak CK-MB > 100ng. The post P2 meeting with the FDA reported April 12, 2006 indicated that probability.
I called Hogan Mallally on your point. He cited 4 other trials in which the FDA had agreed to the definition including the above specs. He confirmed to me that the protocol did include the 100 ng/ml as part of the definition of MI.
Dave
I value your input. Many Phase III trials fail. What flaws does this one have?
Dave
Re MCU. What possible relevance does the absolute number of incidences have to do with the discussion?
The numbers have to be large to reach the significance numbers reported.
What is your source for the P2 mortality statement? I've not noticed it in the literature.
Dave
They will charge a lot for MC 1 IMHO.
They've had a stretched out patent strategy in place for a long time.
Regardless of whether B6 would work just as well surgeons simply could not risk it without extensive clinical data supporting that decision.
Remember MCU is spending 35+ mil on the P3 alone.
Dave
PGS re MCU What doc would prescribe a vitamin supplement in place of an FDA approved drug to save the patient's insurer a few thousand bucks. Answer. None.
Lawyers would sell their children to see such an instance resulting in a fatal MI.
Ergo, MCU can sell the drug for as much as they want.
Dave
Re MCU/MPH Subsequently Medicure had options in the design of the P3 trial. Certainly they would opt for the 100ng/ml vs the statistically failed 50 if that would be acceptable to the FDA. They could have continued with an endpoint including stroke in that they believe it has a benefit there. Including it would have been stat sig including the 100/ng/ml definition + mortality. However, including stroke benefit adds a variable and may have reduced the statsig number that would make the trial a lock.
They opted to drop the stroke benefit for some reason. I think it is fair to assume they know what they are doing. What was left and what the FDA agreed to was death + MI > 100 ng/ml. The FDA agreed to an SPA based on that primary endpoint. Hogan Mallally at MCU confirmed to me that the MI definition will be using 100ng/ml and will not even measure troponin. To me this looks like a slam dunk.
Maybe they were naive in choosing 50 ng/ml for the pahse II when they initiated it in jan of 2004. That is past history
I question why the hell they need 3000 patients if it's a slam with 1000.
The generic B6 supplement argument is new to me. Certainly cancer and MI scares would not seem to apply here due to the short duration of administration and 250 Mg dosage.
Regarding the lisinopril + MC1 trials. To me the benefit seemed small.
Dave
Sayonara to SGMO's huge IP advantage.
Because they can turn off turn on or change any gene and had a lock on the ZFP intellectual property to do it Sangamo became the biggest investment I had. I've had some for 3 years.
Now there are technologies that can do the same things (RNAi, RNA and a new IPO in France) Since first mentioning it on this board it's been down to 5.1 up to 8 down to 6 and back up to 7.5.
They still have a lead but now it's up to management to move swiftly to deal making.
I'll slowly bail out.
It's been fun.
Dave
New IPO says sole competitor is Sangamo.
INTERVIEW-Biotech Cellectis IPO aims to raise $21 mln minimum
2:30a ET January 23, 2007 (Reuters)
PARIS, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Cellectis hopes its initial public offering will yield at least 16 million euros ($20.72 million) so it can boost the production and development of molecules that can reprogramme genes, the French biotech said on Tuesday.
Spun off from the Pasteur Institute in 2000, Cellectis makes gene surgery tools that can reprogramme or cut-and-paste DNA into any preselected gene and manipulate or repair their functioning.
"This is a true breakthrough in biotechnology," Chief Executive and co-founder Andre Choulika told Reuters. "So far gene repair happened ... on the off-chance that it would work. Our technology makes it very efficient and precise."
The IPO could raise as much as 19.4 million euros net, if as many as 2,377,526 shares were sold, including extra new shares if demand is strong, and based on the middle of the 8.90 to 10.25 euro indicative price range. Following the IPO, Cellectis would be valued at 60 million to 70 million euros, it said.
Cellectis's artificial DNA repair systems or meganucleases recombination system (MRS) uses two technologies -- one where natural enzymes can cut a DNA strand at a precisely targetted place and another that replaces one genomic sequence by another.
The genome engineering company, also founded by David Sourdive, sees abundant applications of its technology in healthcare, for example to treat viral diseases, in agriculture to improve the nutritional value of food, and in biotechnology.
"When I think of the possibilities ... It's a market that could be worth billions of euros, but first it needs to be unplugged. It's about how you can be creative with the possibilities our technology opens up," Choulika said.
Competitors are few, he said, with Sangamo BioSciences in the United States as the sole direct rival.
Cellectis has signed 45 partnerships with drugmakers like AstraZeneca and Merck & Co , with agrochemical groups including Bayer and DuPont , as well as with biotechs such as Genentech and Regeneron .
Cellectis makes revenues by selling companies, off the shelf, a small quantity of ready-made DNA -- a molecule found in all living organisms and carrier of genetic information -- or by selling custom-made patented information on the molecule's coding so clients can make the DNA sequencing themselves.
Following the IPO aimed mostly at investors in France, Cellectis hopes it can lift the annual production of its robotic DNA "scissors" to 20 by 2008 from 8 currently.
The IPO runs from Jan. 23 until Feb. 6 when the final price will be fixed and the shares are expected to begin trading on the Alternext exchange.
The IPO's minimum target of 16 million euros, or nearly 15 million euros net, includes 2.7 million euros which are set aside for staff and shareholders.
Its main shareholders, private equity groups like AGF Private Equity, BankInvest Biomedical Venture and Edmond de Rothschild Investment Partners, will subscribe to the IPO for 2.4 million euros.
The Pasteur Institute, which owns 7 percent of Cellectis's share capital, has granted the company exclusive rights on 26 of the 27 patents and on 38 of the 69 pending applications in Cellectis's portfolio.
Since its creation, Cellectis has raised 17.5 million euros to support its R&D. It currently has 40 staff.
Societe Generale is the IPO's only listing sponsor."
GNVC rose from 1.32 to 3.28 since 12/4/06. Fun.
Dave
Re fast track status trade said:
"Fast track status has nothing to do with an expedited review process once the NDA is submitted unless the FDA has also granted them priority review."
Isn't that a bit of an overstatement. Doesn't fast track, in and of itself, usually produce a faster review process?
Dave
Hogan Mullally of MPH/MCU impressed me very much. At one point, shooting from the hip, I opined that few combination drugs other than Caduet had been approved recently. He rattled off a half dozen examples to the contrary. He also took the time to explain why Troponin levels were not important for the purpose of this trial.
The company will continue to actively pursue partnerships for both MC1 and the combinations derived therefrom. I don't fault them for focusing on P3 for MC1 at the expense of newer compounds.
I do question the need for such a large trial.
Once P3 data is available for MC1 the worth of combination drugs derived from it will be clear enough to sell if it isn't right now.
What is you guess re how big MC1 alone might be in peak year revenues?
Dave
Thanks PL re: RNA turning genes on. This has huge implications if it applies to most or all genes. Again this lessens the value of Sangamo's ZFP platform and may, eventually, negatively affect the value of their ZFN technology.
You snooze you lose.
Dave
New Class Of Drugs That Can Impact Alzheimer's Disease
Suggest we google NF-kB for drug company beneficiaries of these findings.
Dave
Main Category: Alzheimer's / Dementia News
Article Date: 26 Jan 2007 - 0:00 PST
Article Also Appears In
Mental HealthSeniors / Aging
Roskamp Institute announced today the discovery of a new class of drugs that lower the production of the main pathological protein that causes Alzheimer's disease. The discovery is detailed in an article co-authored by Drs. Daniel Paris and Michael Mullan and currently appears in Neuroscience Letters.
The Roskamp Institute, which is devoted to finding treatments for Alzheimer's disease, has been researching drugs that have the potential to stop the production of B-amyloid.
"When B-amyloid builds up in humans, patients develop Alzheimer's disease," said Dr. Michael Mullan, Director of the Roskamp Institute. "By stopping its production we can potentially stop the disease. We have found a whole family of drugs that can stop the production of B-amyloid, giving many companies working on NF-kB inhibitors the opportunity to test these types of drugs in Alzheimer's."
NF-kB (a protein that occurs in all cells in the body) activity results in inflammatory responses due to the switching on of genes that encode proteins that are key in inflammation. NF-kB inhibitors are being developed widely in the pharmaceutical industry primarily for its use in inflammatory conditions such as Arthritis and, until now, have not been thought of as a potential treatment for Alzheimer's.
At the same time, many drug companies are searching for compounds that can lower or stop the production of B-amyloid. The finding that NF-kB controls B- amyloid production means that NF-kB inhibitors might be developed as anti- Alzheimer drugs. One such example is Celastrol, which is researched in the Roskamp Institute's publication, and is available as a food supplement but has never been formally tested in Alzheimer's.
"Although we have known about the important inflammatory role of NF-kB for a long time, we did not know that it controls B-amyloid production," said Dr. Daniel Paris, Senior Scientist of the Roskamp Institute. "This may be one way that the inflammation caused by B-amyloid leads to more B-amyloid being produced -- a positive feedback loop with awful consequences for the sufferer."
The publication details the NF-kB findings and explains why this family of drugs should be tested for their use in treating Alzheimer's disease patients.
For more information on the Roskamp Institute and to view the journal article in Neuroscience Letters, please visit us online at http://www.RoskampInstitute.com. The article can also be viewed directly at http://www.roskampinstitute.com/pdf/NF_kB_Publication.pdf.
Roskamp Institute
http://www.RoskampInstitute.com
Why nonprofits fund companies that do drug research
Friday, January 26, 2007
By Sharon Begley, The Wall Street Journal
Science has made paralyzed rats walk, cured mice of cancer and eliminated Alzheimer's in more lab rodents than you can count. Human patients? Not so much.
"There's frustration that developments from academic labs don't get picked up by (drug and biotech) companies," says Dayton Coles. As a board member of the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, he has seen promising discovery after promising discovery emerge from the university labs that JDRF has funded, but none has turned into a cure for type-1 diabetes, which his daughter has.
Fed up with breakthroughs that fill journals rather than medicine chests, private foundations and charities that have traditionally funded academic scientists have started doing the once-unthinkable: writing checks for millions of dollars to for-profit companies.
It's a sign of desperation. One reason there have been so few drug breakthroughs lately is that the profit motive actually works against the development of new pharmaceuticals. Drug companies suffer from blockbuster-itis, the belief that only billion-dollar almost-sure things need apply for development. As a result, even the most brilliant discovery may not be translated into a drug unless it has 10-figure sales potential. Also, short time horizons on the part of venture capitalists, who generally want to see their biotech bets pay off in three years, don't mesh well with the lengthy drug-development process.
Enter the charities. Earlier this month, JDRF announced that it was giving $2 million to MacroGenics Inc., a Rockville, Md., biotech, for a phase-2/3 clinical trial of an antibody that might slow progression of type-1 diabetes. The antibody basically puts an immune-system cell called CD3 in a headlock, preventing it from orchestrating an immune attack on cells that produce insulin. Destruction of those cells causes type-1 diabetes.
The macrogenics deal follows three others JDRF unveiled in 2006. In October, it announced that it would pay up to $3 million to Sangamo BioSciences Inc., Richmond, Calif., for a phase-2 trial of a protein drug that shows promise against diabetic neuropathy, in which nerve damage due to diabetes causes numbness, pain and, eventually, loss of motor function. It is also funding a phase-2 trial by Transition Therapeutics Inc., Toronto, of a drug that might make insulin-producing cells regenerate, and a phase-3 trial by TolerRx Inc., Cambridge, Mass., of an antibody that, like MacroGenics', might protect insulin-making cells.
In every case, the companies are also sinking their own (or investors') money into the trials. But they say the JDRF check makes a difference. "We were locked and loaded for our phase-2 trial, but the JDRF funding will let us look more closely" at how the drug works, says Sangamo CEO Edward Lamphier.
Parents of kids with diabetes aren't the only ones fed up with the slow pace of translational research. This week the Michael J. Fox Foundation announced that it had awarded Sangamo $950,000 to apply its gene-regulation research to slowing Parkinson's disease. In March, Families of Spinal Muscular Atrophy, founded by parents of children with this rare disease, ponied up $402,500 to help Paratek Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Boston, develop a drug for the disease.
"With 10,000 SMA patients in the U.S., the market is too small for companies to see this (disease) as a worthwhile bet unless we help them take a compound past the initial stages," says Kenneth Hobby, executive director of the charity. "If that means funding a company, we have no problem with that."
I asked Hogan at MCU about competition for MC1. He mirrored my findings. No competition on the far horizon.
Isn't it odd that both the MCU and SGMO boards on IHUB are listed as OTCBB stocks? SGMO has been NASDAQ since it IPOed in 2000 and MCU has been AMEX for a long time. They should be categorized under biotech. Dew?
Dave
Thanks for the info re the MCU MPF board.
Dave
re MCU p2 results link:
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2005_Dec_5/ai_n15894504
Note that the primary endpoint moves from a stricter definition of MI and a link to stroke to an SPA agreed looser definition and no reference to stroke in P3.
I was pretty sure that the FDA would have insisted on the new post 2004 definition of MI which includes troponin measurement. I made the call to the company to clarify the SPA for P3. My assumption proved untrue. Troponin is not even measured in the trial.
Several recent SPA approved trials are using the peak CK-MB 100ng/ml definition of MI. That is what Medicure is using with FDA agreement. Hogan says the newer definition that includes troponin levels is more appropriate to ACS and that the higher Peak CK-MB numbers are the current gold standard definition for those who have had are have been supposed to have had a previous MI.
Dave
Here is a quote:
"The study protocol and entry criteria for MEND-CABG II closely follow that of the Phase II MEND-CABG study. MEND-CABG was a Phase II study involving 901 patients that evaluated MC-1 versus placebo in patients undergoing CABG surgery. The 250 mg dose of MC-1 had a 37.2% reduction in the composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (peak CK-MB greater than or equal to 100ng/ml), and non-fatal stroke versus placebo (p equals 0.028). The reduction in the composite endpoint was driven by a significant 46.9% decrease in the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction (peak CK-MB greater than or equal to 100ng/ml) with the 250 mg dose of MC-1 versus placebo (p equals 0.008). The clinical results reported at POD 30 were maintained throughout the 90 day follow up period (POD 90). Safety analysis included in the MEND-CABG study demonstrated MC-1 was safe and well tolerated. The incidence of adverse events in the study was comparable across both treatment and control groups."
Eliminating the stroke component eliminates a needless variable that proved to be very inconclusive. That moves the stat sig closer to the .008 stat sig and farther away from the .028 stat sig. At either figure the drug will meet the primary endpoint. Ergo, I think it's a slam dunk with just triple the patients.
Do you disagree or are you just fishing for clarity?
Dave
MCU/MPH.TO Made a call to Medicure today. They had implied that the P3 trial SPA included the primary definition of MI as peak CK-MB >100 ng/ml. I confirmed that this was true and also that only combined cardiovascular death + MI was the primary endpoint.
That takes stroke and the narrower definition of MI out of the picture in P3. The 900 patient P2 trial results would have been easily stat-sig with that endpoint. To me this makes the 3000 patient P3 a slam dunk. The P3 ends in December and should be reported in March 2008. MC1 is fast tracked. This means we can expect it to hit the market in early 09. That's fast.
Hogan indicated that they expected deep penetration in the CABG market which represents over 467,000 procedures per year.
This P3 will cost upwards of 35 mil. They actively seek partners for MC1 alone and in combination with other cardiac care drugs.
They have a nice looking pipe and I like the Aggrostat deal.
I tripled my position today.
Check it out.
Dave
Amazing ineptitude. One would have thought that the MDCO CEO would have visited the attorney a week before the deadline with a big stick in hand saying, "Hand me the envelope with the patent extension application." It was that important.
I just shook my head when I first read about it a while back.
Dave
Two Nature articles re P53 cancer gene expression. It seeems to recruit the immune system.
Also of interest is the fact that the docs used RNAi to reenable the gene! My understanding was that RNAi could suppress any gene but not express them. SGMO's ZFP process can surely do either but, if universally true, this makes RNAi much more of a threat.
"WEDNESDAY, Jan. 24 (HealthDay News) -- Manipulation of a gene that normally protects against malignancy but is switched off in cancer cells could open up a promising new frontier in research, according to two new U.S. studies.
Whenever p53 was turned off, cancer cells in mice quickly went to work forming tumors, the studies found. But when researchers used high-tech tricks to switch the gene back on, "the tumor went away," said the leader of one of the studies, Scott Lowe, deputy director of the Cold Spring Harbor Cancer Center, in Cold Spring Harbor, N.Y.
"We would like to imagine that this would translate to human tumors," he said. "In such a system, you could have a very aggressive cancer that really depends on the continued inactivation of this gene to survive."
The study also uncovered surprising new insights into the power of the human immune system to "mop up" cancers weakened by reactivated p53.
Lowe's work and a related study were published online in the Jan. 25 issue of Nature.
"These studies indicate that this might be a fruitful path to explore from a cancer drug-development standpoint," said Dr. Ronald DePinho, a pioneer in this type of work and a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School.
Although an actual drug for use in a clinical setting is still a long way off, "there are compounds that are now being directed toward the p53 kinase pathway that may enable re-establishment of p53 activity," said DePinho, who also authored a related commentary on the studies.
Almost all forms of cancer involve an inactivation of the p53 tumor-suppressor gene and its related biochemical pathway. So, the pathway has long been a favorite target of cancer research.
"What p53 does is help cells solve problems when they are stressed," Lowe explained. "So, if a cell is damaged in some way, it can make them stop growing, so they aren't dangerous and form a cancer. In fact, it can even kill cancer cells through a process called apoptosis," or programmed cell death.
Unfortunately, this cancer "safety net" is almost always switched off in tumor cells. Scientists have long known that shutting down p53 is key to triggering a cancer -- but what about maintaining its growth? Work by DePinho and others in the 1990s established that the genes that help start a cancer aren't always crucial to its continued survival.
Would that be the case with p53? To find out, Lowe's group used a highly advanced gene manipulation technique called RNA interference (RNAi) to first switch off p53 in cancer-prone mice and then switch it back on, watching to see what happened.
The results were heartening. Just like clockwork, the mouse tumors expanded in the absence of active p53, then shrank when the gene went back to work.
Lowe called the results "a nice proof-of-principle" that p53 inactivity is, indeed, crucial to tumor maintenance.
But there was a real surprise, too. Lowe said he had assumed that reactivated p53 would simply kill tumor cells directly by driving them into apoptosis.
"But when we looked carefully, that didn't seem to be the primary mechanism," he said. "In fact, we noticed something that was quite different -- p53 was inducing a process called 'cellular senescence.'"
In essence, reactivation of the p53 pathway caused the cell to become arrested in a particular stage in its life cycle, effectively putting it to sleep.
But that didn't explain why tumors continued to shrink under the influence of p53. "Where did the cells go?" Lowe said.
Further research yielded the answer. According to Lowe, restarting p53 "appears to up-regulate genes that are involved in recruiting the [mouse] immune system. It was the immune system that was gobbling up these tumor cells."
What's more, it wasn't the immune system's highly targeted killer cells (such a B- or T-cells) that were eating away at senescent tumor cells, but garden-variety macrophages and other immune cells that drive everyday inflammatory processes.
"That's really exciting and surprising," Lowe said. "We didn't anticipate it. It seems there's this interplay between events that happen within the tumor cell and then this recruitment of the immune system. We'd like to understand that in a better way to perhaps exploit it for treatment."
Another study in the journal, this time led by Tyler Jacks, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also turned up interesting clues to p53. In its study, also conducted with mice, Jacks' team found that switching the gene back on led to speedy tumor regression.
But the researchers also found that the reasons behind that regression varied depending on the type of cancer targeted. For example, lymphoma cells died off due to p53-induced apoptosis, but in the case of sarcomas, p53 triggered tumor cell senescence and a concurrent suppression of cellular proliferation.
The experts stressed that p53 is one of a number of important genes affecting tumor survival.
DePinho's group, and others, have already done groundbreaking work in manipulating various "oncogenes" -- genes that, when they are turned on, actively promote cancer's spread.
"What these newer studies have done is look at the flip-side of that, to do work on the tumor-suppressor side," DePinho said.
Lowe said he also believes that "there are other members of the p53 pathway that can either turn the pathway on or execute the [relevant] biological response. All of them could have a similar biology, and we could imagine tinkering with them to do similar things."
But researchers have their work cut out for them, he said.
"It will still be a long time before we are finding small-molecule drugs that do exactly these things -- before they make their way to the clinic," Lowe said. "This isn't cancer being cured tomorrow. But it remains very exciting."
Sangamo Receives Michael J. Fox Foundation Funding to Develop Novel ZFP Therapeutic for the Treatment of Parkinson's Disease
RICHMOND, Calif., Jan 23, 2007 /PRNewswire via COMTEX News Network/ -- Sangamo BioSciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: SGMO) announced today that it has been awarded funding by The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research (MJFF) to support the development of a ZFP Therapeutic(TM) to treat Parkinson's disease (PD). The $950,000 award will be paid over a period of two years.
Sangamo will develop zinc-finger DNA-binding protein transcription factors (ZFP TFs(TM)) to activate the expression of glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF), a potent neurotrophic factor that has shown promise in preclinical testing to slow or stop the progression of Parkinson's disease.
"We are enthusiastic about Sangamo's novel approach to GDNF as it fits squarely within our desire to promote alternative therapeutic strategies for this and other promising molecules," said Brian Fiske, PhD, associate director of research programs for MJFF. "The work is of particular interest given that Sangamo already has similar technology in clinical trials for diabetic neuropathy and peripheral artery disease and, with a positive result, could proceed rapidly into clinical trials for PD."
Sangamo's technology platform permits the development of highly specific ZFP TFs that can be used to regulate or modify genes at the DNA level. Using a ZFP TF, a gene can be activated in a patient's own cells in its natural cellular context. Use of a ZFP TF to activate the GDNF gene in the brain -- as compared to addition of a GDNF cDNA or the recombinant protein -- may allow the delivery of a more physiologically relevant dose of the growth factor. This may be of particular significance when targeting potent natural growth factors such as GDNF, where sufficient but not super-physiological levels of the therapeutic protein are required to achieve potency with safety.
"We are very pleased that The Michael J. Fox Foundation is recognizing and supporting the potential of Sangamo's unique technology with this award," said Edward Lanphier, Sangamo's President and CEO. "We believe that our approach to therapeutic gene regulation, which mimics the natural regulation of the gene in the body, has advantages over other approaches that add GDNF as either the gene or the recombinant protein. Success in this project would establish the validity of the use of ZFP TFs in the brain and set the stage for the application of this powerful technology to other genes that may have a therapeutic benefit in PD."
I sold a chunk of SGMO on the news. It's moved from 6.25 to the low 7's pretty quickly. It's still by far my biggest holding. Here's a chart showing it near the top of the 2 parallel squiggles.
http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=SGMO&14800#ttop
I'll buy it back in the mid 6's depending....
Dave
Exactly. Gag rules tend to delay disclosures that are very important to shareholders.
Thanks to lewis and dunno re hedge fund info and Cramers take. I'm familiar with many facts regarding the basics of hedge funds, reg SHO and grandfather problems but still have a hard time discerning signs that distinguish hegie activities from mutual fund + normal short interest activities.
Dave
The predictive quality of the CAMH test is, so far, limited to a 6 month horizon. It was not predictive until 6 months after testing and loses predictive quality after 12 months. Although not cleary stated in supporting literature this would seem to indicate the need for testing every 6 months.
I'm guessing that this frequency is viewed as overkill but I've never seen discussion on the matter.
Dave
To BSR et al re hedgie manipulation signs. I'm intrigued and ignorant. I suspect that % short and put/call volume may be involved. Where can we get a primer and direction in this area?
I suspect most biotech investors could stand to learn more. I missed the Cramer take.
Thanks,
Dave
MCU (MPH.TO) and MDCO are acute cardiac care options. Market caps are 136 mil and 1.7 bil. Both deal with drugs used with CABG. Does MCU's licensing of Aggrostat from Merck diminish the value of MCU as a possible licensor or partner of MDCO?
The recent MCU conference call shed some light on the disappointing Aggrostat numbers. (Quarterly sales were 1.4 mil and SG&A went up 2 mil.) Some start-up costs were in the SGA numbers and earlier channel filling diminished sales. December sales were over 1 mil. We need another quarter to more properly evaluate the impact of the drug on the income statement.
Dave
OT Re Intelligence in the Classroom?
Thanks for the interesting article.
It seems incredible that I.Q.s are not part of the process of evaluating teachers and schools.
Relevant paragraphs follow:
"What IQ is necessary to give a child a reasonable chance to meet the NAEP's basic achievement score? Remarkably, it appears that no one has tried to answer that question. We only know for sure that if the bar for basic achievement is meaningfully defined, some substantial proportion of students will be unable to meet it no matter how well they are taught. As it happens, the NAEP's definition of basic achievement is said to be on the tough side. That substantial proportion of fourth-graders who cannot reasonably be expected to meet it could well be close to 36%.
The second problem with the argument that education can be vastly improved is the false assumption that educators already know how to educate everyone and that they just need to try harder -- the assumption that prompted No Child Left Behind. We have never known how to educate everyone. The widely held image of a golden age of American education when teachers brooked no nonsense and all the children learned their three Rs is a myth. If we confine the discussion to children in the lower half of the intelligence distribution (education of the gifted is another story), the overall trend of the 20th century was one of slow, hard-won improvement. A detailed review of this evidence, never challenged with data, was also part of "The Bell Curve."
Dave
Webcast Calendar
[Please see updating procedure at the end of this post. Events listed here are regular quarterly conference calls unless indicated otherwise. All times are U.S. ET. unless indicated otherwise.]
NOTE: ANYONE MAY UPDATE THIS FILE
Edits: added JPM replays & MCU 2nd qtr cc
Replays of the JPM conference are available in alphabetic order by company at this site:
http://www.mapdigital.com/jpmorgan/healthcare07/ondemand.html?archives=windowsmedia
AGIX 1/10 1:30 pm (JPM)
Archemix 1/11 2pm (JPM)
Biolex 1/11 4:30 (JPM)
GILD 1/8 11:30 pm (JPM)
IDIX 1/9 6pm (JPM)
ITMN 1/9 2pm (JPM)
MAXY 1/11 11:30 am (JPM)
MCU 1/12 8:30 am 2nd Qtr results CC http://www.medicure.com/
MRK 1/30 9am
NVS 1/18 8am
SGP 1/29 8am
THRM 1/9 5pm (Needham)
VRTX 1/9 5pm (JPM)
XTLB 1/11 4pm (JPM)
ZGEN 1/11 PST 11:30 JP Morgan Healthcare http://www.zymogenetics.com/
--
Procedure For Updating Calendar
When adding or modifying entries, please follow these steps:
1. Copy the complete text from the old list. You can find a pointer to this list in the iBox at the top of the main message-board screen.
2. Make your additions or modifications, inserting any new items in alphabetical order.
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Webcast Calendar
[Please see updating procedure at the end of this post. Events listed here are regular quarterly conference calls unless indicated otherwise. All times are U.S. ET. unless indicated otherwise.]
NOTE: ANYONE MAY UPDATE THIS FILE
Edits: Delete IMCL talk at JPM. deleted SGMO and ONXX JPM added JPM replays
Replays of the JPM conference are available in alphabetic order by comany at this site:
http://www.mapdigital.com/jpmorgan/healthcare07/ondemand.html?archives=windowsmedia
AGIX 1/10 1:30 pm (JPM)
Archemix 1/11 2pm (JPM)
Biolex 1/11 4:30 (JPM)
GILD 1/8 11:30 pm (JPM)
IDIX 1/9 6pm (JPM)
ITMN 1/9 2pm (JPM)
MAXY 1/11 11:30 am (JPM)
MRK 1/30 9am
NVS 1/18 8am
SGP 1/29 8am
THRM 1/9 5pm (Needham)
VRTX 1/9 5pm (JPM)
XTLB 1/11 4pm (JPM)
ZGEN 1/11 PST 11:30 JP Morgan Healthcare http://www.zymogenetics.com/
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CAMH owns proprietary sensors for which they charge $84/set. Failing to use them voids any warranty on the HeartWave II. I'm sure there are (or will be soon) other sensors that will work as well for a fraction of the cost. The larger users will probably self insure and the smaller users will protect the warranty. $84 seems about right. The marketing concept you speak of would suit a G.E. or Gillette or Medtronic but not a tiny company trying to build a sales force.
IMHO there is sufficient evidence to easily sell the product but it's a 3 to 6 month process that would be better handled by an existing sales force numbering in the hundreds. CAMH has 11 shooting for 28 by EOY.
I'd love to see GE partner with the company and combine the product with an EKG analysis package. More likely it will be bought out by a G.E. or Medtronic at a 40 or 50% premium.
Dave
Dave
I agree. The numbers are paltry. I hope someone buys them out.
I'll guess their SG & A for the last qtr 07 at 4 to 4.5 mil. Currently it's 2.2. I'll guess their last qtr 07 revs at 5.5 to 6 mil with a 65% GM. That'll indicate a loss of .5 mil. Not good but revs will have doubled for 2 consecutive years. We'll see.
Dave
CAMH announces 2007 guidance:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108005846.html?.v=1
"...the Company expects total revenue for 2007 to range between $12 and $14 million. The Company expects that gross margin, as a percentage of revenue, will be in the range of 60-65% for 2007"
They'll propably post 7.3 mil for 2006. They start the year with 11 salespeople and expect to end with 28. I view thes numbers as conservative. It makes sense to establish low hurdles so that guidance can be raised as they go along.
It looks like this year will show y/y doubling of quarterly revenues and a year end run rate of 5 mil with near breakeven profit.
Dave
RPRX P2 volume reduction estimated in the Bulgarian arm follows:
Control 94%, Lupron 54%, 12.5 mg 61, 25 mg 45, 50mg 47%
Dave
Embolization of uterine arteries is another safe non-surgical alternative treatment for fibroids.
Dave
Apologies re the GTCB cash use statement. I missed the follow-on paragraph.
"The 2007 cash use forecast includes planned support for completion of GTC's phase III study of ATryn® in the hereditary deficiency indication for the United States, the filing of a Biologics License Application in the United States, development of the recombinant human factor VIIa production system with LFB Biotechnologies, and preclinical activities in GTC's recombinant human alpha-1 antitrypsin and CD137 monoclonal antibody programs. The phase II DIC study activities in 2007 will be conducted and funded by LEO."
Mr. Newberry did confirm that production scaling expenses "in excess of LEO transfer price" would continue at least till mid year.
Dave
Call my believing the 10K quote, "LEO will pay us at cost for all product used in clinical studies" a lack of homework. Fine.
The first reference to inventory costs in excess of LEO transfer price appeared in the August 10Q, 10 months after the agreement. I considered that a "new disclosure".
Calling me names does not change the fact that my main focuses were concern over the product costs for the LEO (not LFB) deal and the fact that they appeared only in the 10Qs under R & D expense.
Dave
The gist of my previous posts was that the LEO deal was proving to be very costly to GTCB. To portray this morning's cash guidance as anything but LEO related cash burn guidance is obfuscation.
This morning's burn forecast relieved my concern that they had an ongoing desire to hide anything. The 10Q's (for anyone who delved into them) showed the trend adequately.
I never thought GTCB had changed any terms much less said it. I thought their 10K ambiguous or misguided with regard to the burden for clinical production costs.
"In our collaboration with LEO we will continue to be responsible for the production of ATryn. LEO will pay for all product used in clinical studies as well as for commercial sale. For product that sold for approved therapeutic use, LEO will pay us a royalty on all commercial sales, as well as a transfer price that we believe will provide us a margin on our cost of production. LEO will pay us at cost for all product used in clinical studies and will be responsible for all other clinical study costs for approval in Europe.
Good job trying to change the expense concerns I voiced as a devious basher plot.
Regards,
Dave
Re call to GTCB and LEO. This morning's PR confirmed my "baseless" fears.
"GTC said it expects to use $26 million to $29 million of cash in 2007 for forecasted sales of ATryn in the approved indication as well as to LEO for its Phase II study for severe clotting associated with sepsis. "
Add this to the 20 odd mil spent on the LEO progam in 2006. All this for production scale-up. For the 200 patients to be enrolled in the Phase II DIC trial that means a cost of over $200,000 in GTCB clinical product cost per patient.
Per Tom Newberry the enrollment process will take a year. When results are evaluated this "scale up" may have to be renewed for Phase III. It's too early to tell.
Dave