Trading the Forex
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I think GU will go for higher highs imo
This bit of info just proves that there is no way mathematical way to RV the dinar with 26 trillion in circulation. The only way is to do a LOP
cooperations should be heavily taxed for going overseas with their companies. the US should be like fine if you want to do that you can but pay a very hefty tax fee imo
well it started when the US let these fat cats take their business over seas to make a bigger buck. hard to imagine that just back in the 60's to 70's the US was THE biggest manufacturer in the world. now we are heading to the bottom due to oversea outsourcing.
you can shine a turd up as much as you want to but it still is a turd lol I guess our dreams of hope and change has worn off and reality is back on
all eyes on UCHF right now. forming a double bottom at 1.04 and will be a 500 pip move or more imo.
congrats love to see people succeed here
EU looks to be bouncing off of the bottom trend line right now from the 4hour chart
Surprisingly Strong EZ Growth Lifts Euro Off Session Lows
Both German and French PMI flash readings for the month of July printed stronger than expected with German data in particular beating forecasts by a wide margin, indicating that economic activity in Eurozone’s two largest economies remains robust despite concerns over sovereign debt issues plaguing the region.
German Manufacturing PMI rose to 61.2 from 58.4 the month prior while the services report increased to 57.3 from 54.8. Both readings handily beat expectations by nearly 3 points with manufacturing registering its highest reading in more than 2 years. In France the results were a bit more mixed with manufacturing PMI falling to 53.7 from 54.8 in June, but services rising strongly to 61.3. The composite French PMI reading increased to 59.9 from 59.6. French business sentiment also improved to 98 from 96 forecast.
Overall the PMI data shows a strong rebound in business conditions suggesting that growth in EZ should improve in Q3 of 2010 as the lower euro helps fuel export growth in the region’s two most important economies. While focus in the currency market remains on the bank sector stress test results due tomorrow, today’s data should prove bullish for euro longs. As we noted yesterday, “Ultimately, the safety of the (EZ) credit will depend on the degree of growth that EZ economies can generate in order to service their debt obligations. “ To that end, today’s much better than anticipated PMI results demonstrate that economic activity in the region continues to expand.
The EUR/USD rebounded off its Asian session lows of 1.2740, rising above the 1.2800 figure in the aftermath of the news. With economic fundamentals now strongly in its favor the rally in the currency could continue higher to test stops at 1.2850 as we move into North American trade.
Top Stories
* EZ PMI' s show improvement in July
* UK Retail Sales at 0.7% vs. 0.5% eyed
* Nikkei off -0.6% Europe slightly lower
* Oil at $76.50/bbl
* Gold holds support at $1180/oz. so far
Overnight Eco
* JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.2% vs. -0.4%
* EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.7 vs. 54.1
* EUR French Flash Services PMI 61.3 vs. 60.0
* EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 61.2 vs. 58.0
* EUR German Flash Services PMI 57.3 vs. 54.6
* EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.5 vs. 55.2
* EUR Flash Services PMI 56.0 vs. 55.0
* EUR Industrial New Orders m/m 3.8% vs. -0.15 expected
* GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.7% vs. 0.5%
Event Risk on Tap
* CAD Core Retail Sales m/m expected at 0.5%
* CAD Retail Sales m/m expected at 0.5%
* USD Unemployment Claims expected at 453K
* USD Existing Home Sales expected at 5.15M
* USD CB Leading Index m/m expected at -0.3%
* USD HPI m/m expected at -0.3%
Price Action
* USD/JPY dips to 86.35 on post Bernnake reaction but rebounds to 88.50 in European trade
* AUD/USD risk aversion drives it below .8800 but .8750 holds for now
* GBP/USD takes out 1.5200 after better than forecast Retail Sales
* EUR/USD rallies above 1.2800 as PMI data supports
Risk flows reversed in early European trade after better than expected PMI data out of Europe and stronger retail sales from UK lifted both euro and pound to their highest values of the day. The EUR/USD recaptured the 1.2800 figure after EZ PMI readings for both manufacturing and services increased in July with German data particularly strong across the board. Cable rose above 1.5200 after retail sales saw their largest gain in 5 months.
In Eurozone the July PMI data printed significantly better than forecast with manufacturing coming in at 56.5 vs. 55.2 expected while services increased to 56.0 from 55.0 eyed. As we wrote earlier, “The PMI data shows a strong rebound in business conditions suggesting that growth in EZ should improve in Q3 of 2010 as the lower euro helps fuel export growth in the region’s two most important economies. While focus in the currency market remains on the bank sector stress test results due tomorrow, today’s data should prove bullish for euro longs.”
The situation on the stress tests appears muddied as rumors spread that EZ officials will release the result at 6 GMT instead of 1600 GMT tomorrow in order to allow market participants ample time to react to the news. In either case officials are going out of their way to provide as much transparency as possible in order to boost investor confidence with latest leaks indicating that banks will disclose their holdings of sovereign debt. With market already prepared for the bad news regarding Spanish Cajas, Portuguese banks and the ever problematic Hypo Real Estate of Germany, the report may not have as much of a negative impact as some analysts believe if it does not reveal any other weaknesses in the system.
Meanwhile in UK Retail Sales gained 0.7% versus 0.5% expected rising 3% on an annual basis. The sharp increase was driven by World Cup spending and it is not clear if this was a one off event or the start of stronger consumer demand going forward. Tomorrow’s UK GDP data should provide better information as the strength of the country’s recovery, but in the meantime with risk flows on its side cable should remain supported above 1.5200 into the North American session.
In North American trade today, risk appetite may face another challenge as US Existing Home Sales and LEI data are due to report. The market expects both releases to contract from the month prior and there is a good chance that both reports may miss the already lowered expectations given the weakness in prior housing data reports. Additionally Chairman Bernanke holds his second day of testimony in front of Congress and if he maintains his cautious tone regarding future US economic growth both equities and bond yields could slide lower putting downward pressure on USD/JPY. The pair has rebounded from its Asian session lows of 86.27 on the back of better economic data out of Europe to trade at 86.70 but if US capital markets reverse those flows, it could tumble to test the barriers at 86.00 by the end of the day.
FX Upcoming
Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 12:30 8:30 Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -1.2%
CAD 12:30 8:30 Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -2.0%
USD 12:30 8:30 Unemployment Claims 453K 429K
USD 14:00 10:00 Existing Home Sales 5.15M 5.66M
USD 14:00 10:00 CB Leading Index m/m -0.3% 0.4%
USD 14:00 10:00 HPI m/m -0.3% 0.8%
I went in around 1.30 but not as big as I should of
I think you are fine, everyone on this board must still remember to trade at your own risk. Nobody can predict anything just use the best techs and news we can find to get the best trades.
your always missed
EU wow I should of went in big at 1.30 well hindsight I guess
not to sound stupid but steven segal has a tv show and his sergeant had cronic knee swelling so steven took him to a acupunture place and his pains stopped and swelling went down.
I think she is hiding from her cake lol
well me to from doing manual labor all my life started taking a toll on my body especially at the age of 26 when I was an electrical foreman carrying that heavy electrical around all day was pulling on my lower spine which is what got me into the market.
yeah that "C" word scares me also since it runs rampant in all of my family.
sorry about your neck, I bet that doesn't feel good at all. well your a young old dude then lol
well I was superman until I hit 23 one day and my back started hurting and I was like is that lolol
at 52 you have to think you might still have 25-40 years left so yes you can enjoy it.
well belated b-day wow 66 years of a blessed life congrats.
lolol now that's funny, maybe make a pip doll like in that credit report.com commercial. you ever see the dog that looks like a credit score or I should say a credit score with fur lololol
yep I am an old 34 year old today lol
yes sir my friend yes sir
yeah I was just scared to go in normal because of the continual climb of EU
EU made 100 pips overnight but what sucks is my order was so small it's not worth bragging about lol
Top Stories
* UK Gov't Borrowing Increases Markedly in June 14.5B vs. 1.5B eyed
* Spanish auction goes off at better yield than period prior
* Shanghai leads Asia up 2% Europe up 0.5%
* Oil above $77/bbl
* Gold spikes lower to $1180/oz.
Overnight Eco
* CHF Trade Balance 1.77B vs. 1.05B
* EUR German PPI m/m 0.6% vs. 0.2%
* GBP Prelim Mortgage Approvals 48K vs. 52K
* GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 14.5B vs. 13.2B
* GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m 0.0% vs. -0.1%
* GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations n/a
Event Risk on Tap
* USD Building Permits expected at 0.57M
* USD Housing Starts expected at 0.58M
* CAD Overnight Rate expected at 0.75%
Price Action
* USD/JPY 87.00 caps but pushed higher on intrevention woes
* AUD/USD hawkish RBA drives it to .8800
* GBP/USD higher PSNB pulls it to 1.5225
* EUR/USD strong demand takes to 1.3028 but can't hold the figure for now
The euro rose to a fresh eight week high of 1.3028 in early European trade, boosted by growing investor enthusiasm over the results of the bank stress test due Friday, but the pair could not hold the highs and fell back below the 1.3000 figure by mid-morning trade as the tug of war around this psychologically important level continued. US and European banks were heavy buyers of the euro in late Asian session trade with longs trying to trigger a capitulation short covering squeeze, but the second attempt to break the 1.3000 figure fizzled despite the fact that Spanish, Greek and Belgian authorities expressed confidence over the stress tests of their banking system.
In yet another positive sign of investor confidence, the Spanish T- Bill auction attracted nearly the maximum 6 Billion euro allocation for the 6 month paper while the 12 month bills saw a yield of 2.22% - lower than the 2.30% yield the month prior. The news suggests that credit markets in Southern Europe have stabilized for the time being and should provide a supportive foundation for the euro.
On the economic front the calendar was relatively empty but German PPI data did surprise to the upside printing much hotter than expected at 0.6% vs. 0.2% eyed. As we noted earlier, “Although producer prices remain well below the 2.0% target level of the ECB, the surprising increase in the wholesale price level suggests that businesses in Eurozone’s largest economy may have regained some pricing power as demand begins to revive. Today’s news also dovetails with yesterday’s statements by German Finance Ministry which noted that growth in the second half of this year should accelerate to 2.0% from earlier estimates of 1.5%.”
The risk trade was also aided by a surprisingly hawkish RBA commentary which noted in its monthly minutes that a rate hike in August was a possibility if official inflation data prints higher than expected. The Aussie rose nearly a full cent breaking above the .8800 figure as currency traders adjusted their rate expectations. The Australian CPI figures are due next week and if they prove to be higher than forecast the AUD/USD could challenge the .9000 level a carry traders flock to the unit.
In UK the price action was quite different from the rest of the majors as the pound tumbled nearly 100 points on the news that UK Government borrowing increased in June to 14.5 Billion from 13.2 Billion forecast as tax revenue rose but at the weakest pace since January. Cable has run into a wall of resistance at the 1.5400-1.5500 area as UK eco data has proven softer than expected. We have long argued that the rally in the unit was unsustainable given the significant austerity measures to be implemented by the Tory government which are likely to weigh on demand going forward. The news today could trigger further warnings from credit ratings agencies in the near future and as a result the pound could tumble lower to test the 1.5000 level over the next few sessions unwinding the recent rally.
In North American trade today US calendar only carries the Building permits and housing starts data which could once again disappoint the market given the very weak fundamentals of the housing sector. In Canada the BOC is expected to raise rates another 25bp to 75bp but the focus will be on the statement. It will be interesting to note if Canadian monetary officials will follow their Australian counterparts in adopting a more hawkish posture, or if as we suspect, Mr. Carney and company will sound a more cautious note due to the lackluster growth in US. Although Canadian economic growth has been far stronger than that of the US, the monetary authorities in Ottawa remain concerned about the strengthening of the loonie and as result could adopt a more circumspect approach. If that turns out to be the case AUD/CAD could rally further.
FX Upcoming
Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
USD 12:30 8:30 Building Permits 0.57M 0.57M
USD 12:30 8:30 Housing Starts 0.58M 0.59M
CAD 13:00 9:00 Overnight Rate 0.75% 0.50%
you go tiger lol
20 pips??? we want to see you get 200 lol
some of my favorite indies
I-reg
http://rapidshare.com/files/407827608/i-Regr.mq4
magic fibo
http://rapidshare.com/files/407827755/Magic_Fibo.ex4
gartley zup 83
http://rapidshare.com/files/407827857/ZUP_v83.mq4
Do you need the gartley indicator?
well right now there is one massive gartley on the 4hour chart so I am getting ready to rumble myself
all of my fibs are on an indicator which draws them for me. magic fibo, do you have the file?
that sucks
that's a pretty good chart there and it might be on the money there
well I am very tempted to pull the trigger on it myself. might take a small one now
yeah I still haven't fully went short but right now it has a double to so I will go from there and keep my eye open on it.
I've had orders miss by 1 pip before and then drop 75 pips, not fun to see
yeah I think EU has finaly hit top imo
we missed GU by 50 pips I think, too late now though
EU looks like it is finally hitting a brick wall at 1.30 imo for now
Top Stories
* Dollar weak on growth concerns
* EUR Trade Balance misses but Euro heads for new highs
* Nikkei slides -3% ahead of holiday trade, Europe flat
* Oil at $76.41/bbl
* Gold slides back to $1204/oz.
Overnight Eco
* JPYTertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.9% vs. -0.7%
* NZD CPI q/q 0.3% vs. 0.5%
* EUR Italian Trade Balance -1.96B
* EUR Trade Balance -3B vs. 08B eyed
Event Risk on Tap
* CAD Leading Index m/m ecpected at 0.5%
* USD Core CPI m/m ecpected at 0.1%
* USD CPI m/m ecpected at 0.1%
* USD TIC Long-Term Purchases ecpected at 73.7B
* USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ecpected at 74.1
* USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Price Action
* USD/JPY drops to 87.00 as equity losses continue
* AUD/USD remains weak at .8750 on worries over US growth
* GBP/USD above 1.5400 but 1.5450 caps for now
* EUR/USD 1.2949 top for now but 1.3000 within view
Yen approached its 2010 highs breaking below the 87.00 handle in Asian trade as Nikkei sunk by nearly 3% on the final trading day of the week while EUR/USD took out the 1.2950 level with longs targeting the psychologically key 1.3000 figure as US growth concerns weighed on the dollar. The dollar was weaker across the board as the unit continued to lose its safe haven luster as currency traders focused on the relatively weak US economic data released this week.
On a night with little event risk on the calendar, trading was driven primary by risk aversion and technical flows. In Asia the sharp decline in the Nikkei which dove nearly 3% ahead if the 3 day holiday weekend pushed USD/JPY to a low of 86.96 as the yen's relentless rally against the buck continued. The recent downbeat US data pushed US bond rates to fresh yearly lows and that dynamic is weighing on the pair. With US 10 year bonds yields below 3.00% USD/JPY remains pressured and is unlikely to break above the 90.00 figure until US yields reach 3% again.
In Europe the sole economic release of the night was EZ trade balance report which missed expectations printing at -3.0 Billion versus 0.8 Billion eyed. However the weaker headline data actually masked some the strength underneath. As we wrote earlier, “Trade flows had picked up markedly from the year prior with exports surging 26% while imports rose at an even more impressive 30% rate. Although the latest trade data is ostensibly negative from the balance sheet basis, the pick in economic activity is actually a positive sign that demand in the EZ is beginning to recover. Furthermore when looking underneath headline numbers, the data revealed that the EZ balance of trade improved against both US and China. The trade surplus with US almost doubled to 19.0 Billion while the deficit with China was reduced to 44.9 Billion from 47 Billion the period prior. The biggest increase in trade deficit occurred with Russia as energy prices rose during the month. However with oil prices stabilizing near the $75/bbl that factor is unlikely to have a negative impact on trade going forward.”
In North America today the docket holds US CPI, TICS and U of M consumer sentiment data. Of the three the U of M numbers may be key to the tone trade for the rest of the day. The market anticipates a decline to 74.2 from 76.0 the month prior and given the subdued level of Retail Sales and the lackluster demand in US labor markets it is reasonable to assume that the sentiment readings will decline. However if the number misses badly braking below the 70 handle, the news could trigger a sharp selloff in equities that could take USD/JPY to a test of 86.50. Furthermore, in a total reversal of the dynamic that has been dominating trade for the past two years, a selloff in stocks could actually help rally the EUR/USD as traders dump the greenback on fears that US economic growth will lag that of the Eurozone. Under those conditions the EUR/USD could easily take out the 1.3000 barrier as shorts are squeezed mercilessly.
FX Upcoming
Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 12:30 8:30 Leading Index m/m 0.5% 0.9%
USD 12:30 8:30 Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
USD 12:30 8:30 CPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
USD 13:00 9:00 TIC Long-Term Purchases 73.7B 83.0B
USD 13:55 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 74.1 76.0
USD 13:55 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%