is...trading
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
CNO new HOD
Double the avg daily volume...
weeeeeeeee
last week...
..entered FITB for a swing trade...
and CNO for a flip...
guessing a green Monday...futures up nicely...
all out FAS at 5.49 today...
was gonna jump back in at end of day, but I will wait and see...
Popeye, didnt you say one time that you used to be an accountant?
What are your thoughts on this whole M2M issue?
Bad accounting rules are the cause of the banking crisis.
By STEVE FORBES
What is most astounding about President Barack Obama's radical economic recovery program isn't its breadth, but its continuation of the most destructive policies of the Bush administration. These Bush policies were in themselves repudiations of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Mr. Obama's hero.
The most disastrous Bush policy that Mr. Obama is perpetuating is mark-to-market or "fair value" accounting for banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions. The idea seems harmless: Financial institutions should adjust their balance sheets and their capital accounts when the market value of the financial assets they hold goes up or down.
That works when you have very liquid securities, such as Treasurys, or the common stock of IBM or GE. But when the credit crisis hit in 2007, there was no market for subprime securities and other suspect assets. Yet regulators and auditors kept pressing banks and other financial firms to knock down the book value of this paper, even in cases where these obligations were being fully serviced in the payment of principal and interest. Thus, under mark-to-market, even non-suspect assets are being artificially knocked down in value for regulatory capital (the amount of capital required by regulators for industries like banks and life insurance).
Banks and life insurance companies that have positive cash flows now find themselves in a death spiral. Of the more than $700 billion that financial institutions have written off, almost all of it has been book write-downs, not actual cash losses. When banks or insurers write down the value of their assets they have to get new capital. And the need for new capital is a signal to ratings agencies that these outfits might deserve a credit-rating reduction.
So although banks have twice the amount of cash on hand that they did a year ago, they lend only under duress, or apply onerous conditions that would warm Tony Soprano's heart. This is because they know that every time they make a loan or an investment there is a risk of a book write-down, even if the loan is unimpaired.
If this rigid mark-to-market accounting had been in effect during the banking trouble in the early 1990s, almost every major commercial bank in the U.S. would have collapsed because of shaky Latin American and commercial real estate loans. We would have had a second Great Depression.
But put aside for a moment the absurdity of trying to price assets in a disrupted or non-existent market, of not distinguishing between distress prices and "normal" prices. Regulatory capital by its definition should take the long view when it comes to valuation; day-to-day fluctuations shouldn't matter. Assets should be kept on the books at the price they were obtained, as long as the assets haven't actually been impaired.
Mark-to-market accounting does just the opposite. When times are good, it artificially boosts banks' capital, thereby encouraging more investing and lending. In a downturn it sets off a devastating deflation.
Mark-to-market accounting is the principal reason why our financial system is in a meltdown. The destructiveness of mark-to-market -- which was in force before the Great Depression -- is why FDR suspended it in 1938. It was unnecessarily destroying banks.
But bad ideas never die. Mark-to-market was resurrected by the Financial Accounting Standards Board and became effective in the fall of 2007 (FASB rule 157) to the approval of the Bush administration, its Treasury Department, and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Even as FASB 157 began to take its toll on financial institutions last year, Mr. Bush refused to kill or suspend it. When Congress voiced displeasure last fall, the administration and regulatory authorities made some cosmetic changes, but the poisonous essence remained.
Another horrific Bush policy that Mr. Obama has left untouched concerns short selling. In 1938, the SEC, created by FDR, enacted the so-called uptick rule, which held that investors could not short a stock unless it went up in price. In July 2007, the SEC, whose commissioners were handpicked by the White House, got rid of the rule. Market volatility exploded.
Compounding this lunacy was the SEC's inexplicable failure to enforce the rule against "naked" short selling. Before an investor can short a stock, he is supposed to borrow the shares and pay a broker or stockholder a fee. What sellers soon realized was that the SEC was turning a blind eye to naked short-selling, thus adding even more pressure to beleaguered bank equities. Short sellers quickly saw how mark-to-market made seemingly invincible companies vulnerable to destruction. They picked their targets and relentlessly sold financial stocks short.
If the president really takes Roosevelt's legacy seriously, he should suspend mark-to-market accounting rules, restore the uptick rule, and enforce the prohibition against naked short selling. If he doesn't, historians will look back in utter amazement at Mr. Obama's preservation of Mr. Bush's worst economic policies.
Mr. Forbes is chairman and CEO of Forbes Inc. and editor in chief of Forbes magazine.
not yet
I think more upside...
FAS 5.21 in AH
I dont think 6.00 is too much of a stretch
Even if this is just a bear rally before more downside, M2M buzz could spike financials higher...
WTF do I know...
Having a beer right now...
Ouch, thats a tough one Lang
I set my stop at 5.04 and went to work, saw the dip on my ticker and thought i was all out...come home and check, FAS never sold...WTF? Still holding all of it...that wasnt the plan, but it looks like I'm gonna be fine unless something messy happens this weekend...
Bizarro world...
Gotta call my broker on Monday and find out why the fk my stop didnt get hit...easily could have been a disaster!
FAS currently 5.21 in AH
Best part is, this year not gonna pay capital gains...
New Tax Free Savings Account in Canada.
Can only start with 5K max.
I almost got my double on my first trade.
not quite a double yet, took a $300 haircut on my first entry (in a little early) then got back in at 2.62
Its all good...
yeah, will probably jump out if 5 doesnt hold, definitely wont be holding below MA 20 (4.86)
me too, finger on the trigger...
Excellent to hear your feeling better!
I choose to be Optimistic with you Popeye, if anybody can beat this thing, its you!
FAS closed at 5.05 and up a little more AH
Big Smiles!!!
Can I get a Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee?
I hate to break this too you, but all gaps must be filled is a myth...
"It is often said when referring to gaps that they will always fill, meaning that the price will move back and cover at least the empty trading range. However, before you enter a trade that profits the covering, note that this doesn’t always happen and can often take some time to fill."
Source..
http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts8.asp
I used to believe that gaps always got filled til I got burned a few times...
Although I admit that in most of my experience more often they do fill...in time...
If gaps always fill maybe we should hold til FAS fills the gap from 5.57 to 5.63 on Feb 27...or the gap from 7.06 to 7.86 on Feb 17th..
perhaps today formed an "Breakaway Gap" or even better an "Island Bottom Reversal Gap"...
Thanks Bobby!
Still holding...
I show 3.91 last AH trade...
All good now!
FAS closed at $3.73 and trading $3.90 AH
Knew it was coming, I was just a little early...
WOW! Congratulations!
A New home, a "fresh" wife, and a mini Tsafi to come!
Thats excellent News! We are all very glad to hear you are safe and doing well!
Best of luck to you in your new life!
Please stop in once in a while and keep us updated on how you are doing.
Great to hear from you!
CONGRATS!
Waiting for Thursday...
Obama needs to make a quick move with M2M to save financials...
Obama Repeats Bush's Worst Market Mistakes
Bad accounting rules are the cause of the banking crisis.
By STEVE FORBES
What is most astounding about President Barack Obama's radical economic recovery program isn't its breadth, but its continuation of the most destructive policies of the Bush administration. These Bush policies were in themselves repudiations of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Mr. Obama's hero.
The most disastrous Bush policy that Mr. Obama is perpetuating is mark-to-market or "fair value" accounting for banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions. The idea seems harmless: Financial institutions should adjust their balance sheets and their capital accounts when the market value of the financial assets they hold goes up or down.
That works when you have very liquid securities, such as Treasurys, or the common stock of IBM or GE. But when the credit crisis hit in 2007, there was no market for subprime securities and other suspect assets. Yet regulators and auditors kept pressing banks and other financial firms to knock down the book value of this paper, even in cases where these obligations were being fully serviced in the payment of principal and interest. Thus, under mark-to-market, even non-suspect assets are being artificially knocked down in value for regulatory capital (the amount of capital required by regulators for industries like banks and life insurance).
Banks and life insurance companies that have positive cash flows now find themselves in a death spiral. Of the more than $700 billion that financial institutions have written off, almost all of it has been book write-downs, not actual cash losses. When banks or insurers write down the value of their assets they have to get new capital. And the need for new capital is a signal to ratings agencies that these outfits might deserve a credit-rating reduction.
So although banks have twice the amount of cash on hand that they did a year ago, they lend only under duress, or apply onerous conditions that would warm Tony Soprano's heart. This is because they know that every time they make a loan or an investment there is a risk of a book write-down, even if the loan is unimpaired.
If this rigid mark-to-market accounting had been in effect during the banking trouble in the early 1990s, almost every major commercial bank in the U.S. would have collapsed because of shaky Latin American and commercial real estate loans. We would have had a second Great Depression.
But put aside for a moment the absurdity of trying to price assets in a disrupted or non-existent market, of not distinguishing between distress prices and "normal" prices. Regulatory capital by its definition should take the long view when it comes to valuation; day-to-day fluctuations shouldn't matter. Assets should be kept on the books at the price they were obtained, as long as the assets haven't actually been impaired.
Mark-to-market accounting does just the opposite. When times are good, it artificially boosts banks' capital, thereby encouraging more investing and lending. In a downturn it sets off a devastating deflation.
Mark-to-market accounting is the principal reason why our financial system is in a meltdown. The destructiveness of mark-to-market -- which was in force before the Great Depression -- is why FDR suspended it in 1938. It was unnecessarily destroying banks.
But bad ideas never die. Mark-to-market was resurrected by the Financial Accounting Standards Board and became effective in the fall of 2007 (FASB rule 157) to the approval of the Bush administration, its Treasury Department, and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Even as FASB 157 began to take its toll on financial institutions last year, Mr. Bush refused to kill or suspend it. When Congress voiced displeasure last fall, the administration and regulatory authorities made some cosmetic changes, but the poisonous essence remained.
Another horrific Bush policy that Mr. Obama has left untouched concerns short selling. In 1938, the SEC, created by FDR, enacted the so-called uptick rule, which held that investors could not short a stock unless it went up in price. In July 2007, the SEC, whose commissioners were handpicked by the White House, got rid of the rule. Market volatility exploded.
Compounding this lunacy was the SEC's inexplicable failure to enforce the rule against "naked" short selling. Before an investor can short a stock, he is supposed to borrow the shares and pay a broker or stockholder a fee. What sellers soon realized was that the SEC was turning a blind eye to naked short-selling, thus adding even more pressure to beleaguered bank equities. Short sellers quickly saw how mark-to-market made seemingly invincible companies vulnerable to destruction. They picked their targets and relentlessly sold financial stocks short.
If the president really takes Roosevelt's legacy seriously, he should suspend mark-to-market accounting rules, restore the uptick rule, and enforce the prohibition against naked short selling. If he doesn't, historians will look back in utter amazement at Mr. Obama's preservation of Mr. Bush's worst economic policies.
Mr. Forbes is chairman and CEO of Forbes Inc. and editor in chief of Forbes magazine.
Yeah not cool...
On Dec 22, he said he only had 10 more days to go and he would be back soon.
Its been over 2 months...
Good to see these regular updates Popeye!
Now, if we could just hear from Tsafi, that would be good
still holding...
refuse to give up on this one, confident I can still make bank on this...call it stubborn or stupid, only time will tell...
On March 12, the House Financial Services Committee will meet to discuss mark-to-market rules.
I expect FAS to rally before Thursday on anticipation...
Don't enter any position based on what I say, I'm drunk most of the time...lol
a day early and a dollar short...
ffs where is Tsafi?
bailed early down 9% back in at end of day...
cmon u fkn market...
how low will she go?
I'm thinking we are near bottom...but not certain...
In FAS large today at 3.62
Target around MA 13 at 5.20ish for 40+% by Friday
Stop at 3.30 (under 10% = ouch)
Where's Tsafi
Where's bottom...
I forgot how to post charts
Look at DJI and FAS..if this is bottom, i make easy bank...
Both PPO/ADX crazy pinchers...
Feeling lucky and greedy and drinkin again...
hope all is well out there for those still lurking on this board...
Boomer
Thanks Popeye. It's Great to hear from you!
yeah...
Popeye
Tsafi
Hope you guys are ok...
Where's our Gold and Silver update...
Merry Christmas Bobby!
Merry Christmas Bum!
The best is yet to come...
Merry Christmas Lang!
Merry Christmas Tsafi, be safe man!
Popeye, you should take great pride in the fact that you have given so selflessly to others you dont even know. You have been one of the few people out here in cyberspace that always conducted yourself with integrity and honesty. I have the greatest respect for you and you will always be remembered as a man with strong character and great wisdom. I am so fortunate to have been able to chat with you here and on the old SS forum over the years. Reading about your situation makes me rethink all that I previously thought was important.
My thoughts are with you and I hope that your remaining time is filled with joy and you are surrounded by the ones you love.
Happy Holidays my friend. You deserve it.
Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
Boomer
Brutal...My thoughts and prayers are with you Popeye.
Hard to say, its not a typical RS per say...so it probably will end up pretty much even in value afterwards...
But I aint holding to find out, may get back in after, but I wont hold thru it.
"if you are making any change in the IBOX before you are doing it make sure your blood alcohol level is normal "
In that case, I guess I dont ever get to update the ibox anymore
lmao *hic*
It should be AIG not IAG in the chart!
I'm still holding...coudnt pull the trigger today
Will bail on RBS before Friday R/S, hopefully tomorrow in PM on world "Obama Rally"
............
To maintain an appropriate price range for The Royal Bank of Scotland Group American depositary shares ("ADSs") representing ordinary shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange, (NYSE Symbol: RBS), effective November 7, 2008, the ratio of one (1) ADS representing One (1) ordinary share will change to one (1) ADS representing 20 (twenty) ordinary shares.
Existing ADR holders will receive one (1) "New" ADS for every twenty (20) "Old" ADSs surrendered for cancellation.
Holding some SFI (1.16), RBS (.93) and AIG (1.56)
Looks like ugly news for RBS, so thinking about dumping it PM at .98 right now...
What about you?
Trying to edit my charts in the ibox...
WTF new editor?
Trying to add SFI, AIG and RBS?
I am "mefager"