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March 17th OPEC meets
OPEC meets tomorrow and keep Iraq is excluded from the quota system productivity
Conscious / n. ?????? ??? ?? - ????? X
16/3/2010
Meet Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna tomorrow, and seems to keep oil output unchanged is the only option preferred by the members of the Organization.
And the prices of oil at the current state of recovery and reached a price of a barrel of oil on the U.S. to more than $ 81 a barrel, a level higher than the desired price of OPEC, which ranges between 70 and 80 dollars a barrel.
Sources in the organization (OPEC) that Iraq is excluded from production quotas since 2003 due to special circumstances, but observers attributed to confirm Iraq's commitment to the issue of production quotas for fear of deterioration of the prices will reflect negatively on its development programs.
On a date to Iraq to join the production quota system reported that Iraq's production is not on the agenda of the meeting of OPEC oil ministers tomorrow.
She said Iraq and because of tension and instability that has lived for many years been excluded from the obligation to production quotas (OPEC), considering that oil exports remain modest despite the large needs to rebuild what was destroyed by wars and international sanctions that began three decades.
During the past few days through a number of OPEC oil ministers about not wanting to change the current production ceiling, including the Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, who said that the amendment of current production levels would send the wrong message to the oil market also said Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said oil ministers of the FAO satisfied with the situation in the oil market and crude oil prices supported by supply and demand factors.
Sources in the organization he did not know whether it will decide after the oil ministers of the 12 members of the (OPEC) to maintain the cartel's production ceiling or make changes to production levels where it will be subject to a report of the market monitoring committee which will meet this evening at the headquarters of the Organization in order to submit recommendations to the Ministerial Conference tomorrow.
On the evaluation of the market fundamentals of supply and demand, sources said that the global market receive adequate supplies of oil and do not suffer from a lack of production at this time.
The sources expressed concern about the persistence of certain member states to exceed the production quotas assigned to them and referring to data showing the commitment of member states has fallen to below 60 percent after that was more than 85 percent early last year.
They revealed that adherence to production quotas will be a major topic is expected to cast a shadow over the meeting of oil ministers of the Organization.
Indicates a diminishing commitment to planned reductions to less than 60 percent that the (OPEC) pumps 880 thousand barrels per day above the level of supply.
Did not have the (OPEC) to adjust production quotas imposed by the reduced supply since late 2008 to stem the collapse in prices due to global economic crisis.
On the main topics on the agenda of the conference to be held for the first time in the headquarters of the Organization of the new sources is expected that the ministers consider the first instance to assess the latest developments in the global oil market and supply and demand, and levels of global stocks and the need for any new measures may be required by the market conditions for phase future.
She said it would also consider the extent to which the effectiveness of the refineries around the world, expressing the conviction that the oil ministers of the (OPEC) will make the appropriate decision in this regard.
She also expressed satisfaction with the levels of stocks of crude oil between 70 and 80 dollars a barrel, but made clear that in view of the fundamentals of supply and demand, stocks have risen to 59 days after it was between 51 and 55 days.
News Agency Iraqi
related articles ~
155th (Extraordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference
Opec Likely to Face Iraq Test Sooner Than Expected
Iraq's oil output quota may become OPEC's 'hot iron'
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/march-17th-opec-meets-iraq-is-excluded.html
March 18th
"The next few days will witness the announcement of final election results at a press conference convened by UNHCR in the presence of the media indicating that total of 36 thousand and 951 polling stations out of 46 people and 640 polling stations , adding that all results abroad in 16 countries and reached the Office and will be announced with the special voting in 18 of the current month".
March 17, 2010
An intensive political talks with the imminent announcement of final election results
??? %79 ?? ??????? ?? ???? ?????? Screening 79% of the vote across the country
????? - ?????? BAGHDAD - morning
With continued consultations and dialogues between the political blocs top of the scene with a view to electoral alliances and consensus on the new government, UNHCR completed the counting of about 79 percent of the votes in all provinces.
The results show partial legislative elections, the political map of the features of the unfolding of the blocks during the sizes winning highest number of votes that would allow them to engage in dialogues to form a new government and distribution of the sovereign.
At a press conference yesterday, said the election commission from the introduction of 79.32 percent of the votes in all governorates.
Qasim al-Aboudi, a UNHCR spokesman in a joint news conference with the hope Bayraktar Commission Vice-President that the next few days will witness the announcement of final election results at a press conference convened by UNHCR in the presence of the media indicating that total of 36 thousand and 951 polling stations out of 46 people and 640 polling stations , adding that all results abroad in 16 countries and reached the Office and will be announced with the special voting in 18 of the current month.
He added that the slave «number of securities delivered to the polling stations, 16 million and 411 thousand and 436 paper ballot papers were not used seven million and 612 thousand and 449 ballot papers and damaged 31 thousand and 599 paper and excluded 5723 ballot paper, pointing out that »the cards will be burned in the presence of excess media and observers of the political entities ».
In turn, said Bayraktar hope that the Commission Vice-President «input rate in Baghdad has 77.48 percent of the votes of the participants in the suffrage 70.21, Dohuk, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, 73.04 and 79.61 and 80.22 Nineveh, Kirkuk, 74.65 and 75.31 of Diyala and Anbar 82 , 35, Babylon, 80.80 percent »indicating that« the proportion of counting and sorting in Karbala reached 74.03 percent and 89.92 Wasit, Salah al-Din, Najaf, 73.81 and 78.36 and 84.75 Qadisiyah 86.41 Muthanna, Dhi Qar, Maysan, 84.51 and 75, 48 and Basra 85.49 ».
????? ?????? ?????? ? ????
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/march-18th-imminent-announcement-of.html
March 17th
"Iraq is the center core of the electrical system link between the continents adjacent because there is a study to link the electricity system for the Gulf States the system of Iraq through Turkey all the way to Europe as well as link the electricity system of Iraq Iran to become the system of Iraq is the main axis to link the electrical system at the global level "
March 17, 2010
Iraq involved the Ministerial Meeting of the eight linkage project in Beirut
Completion of two to control the distribution of electricity throughout the country
????? ? ???? ??????? Baghdad, Tariq al-Araji
Iraq participates in the ministerial meeting on the draft electricity grid eight for the Arab States and regional to be held today in the Lebanese capital Beirut were able Angels and the Ministry of Electricity of the construction of both the national and central control of the central region.
A spokesman for the Ministry of Electricity, Aziz Sultan's »Sabah» said Minister of Electricity Karim Wahid, Dr. arrived in the Lebanese capital Beirut to participate in the ministerial meeting on the draft electricity grid Eight Arab countries and regional organizations.
He added that Iraq is one of the other major institution for this project, which includes both Libya and Sudan, Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iraq, noting that completion of this project will help to link the electricity system through the European system-Arab Turkey.
He noted that Iraq is the center core of the electrical system link between the continents adjacent because there is a study to link the electricity system for the Gulf States the system of Iraq through Turkey all the way to Europe as well as link the electricity system of Iraq Iran to become the system of Iraq is the main axis to link the electrical system at the global level . and that most countries had worried about the electrical link with Iraq to the low reliability of the electric grid, but by the rehabilitation work accomplished by the ministry's power transmission lines for very high and high pressure will help to convince participating countries to link eight to speed up the implementation of this project.
In the same context, the Ministry of Electricity announced the opening of the central control of the national and the central region after the completed projects Mlakatha exceptional circumstances noting that they will contribute to fully control the production plants and monitor the distribution of energy produced in all the provinces as well as monitoring and recording the information directly on all of the nutrients and energy transmission lines emerging plants production and transport to the provinces.
And the Sultan that the completion of the centers is a turning point in the control of the energy system and non-occurrence of fire full in the future.
He said the national control center Create a Japanese grant funding and control center for the Middle District funding 50 percent of the grant and the remaining equipment such as the U.S. was built at the expense of the ministry through the purchase of some equipment and completion of civil works of the two centers by the engineering and technical staffs of the ministry.
In the same context will continue the technical staffs of the Directorate General for the transfer of energy in the Upper Euphrates to repair one of the towers affected modern line to the existing 400 and the angels in the efforts of the self-completion of work without any third-party and it is hoped that the work be carried out fully during the next few days.
The tower No. (70) on the line of the existing 400 to date.
He had been in a major damage due to wind and storms on the region.
Make sure to check this out ~ Link ~
Formal Launching of the first phase of the multi-billion-dirham GCC power grid project in Kuwait next week's 30th Summit
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/march-17th-beirut-iraq-will-attend.html
IMF Financial Activities -- Update March 11, 2010
Iraq accepted IMF loan.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/activity/2010/031110.htm#tab2a
Iraq to seek bids in April for $6 bln port project
Monday, March 15, 2010
Iraq to seek bids in April for $6 bln port project
Iraq will next month invite foreign firms to submit bids for the planned construction of a $6 billion port south of Basra, which together with a new rail system will create a regional transport conduit to rival the Suez Canal, officials say.
Iraq is also seeking investors to build 8,000 km (4,970 miles of new rail line, including a $3 billion railway network around Baghdad.
Constructing a new port and expanding the country's existing 2,000 km (1,200 miles) of railway is part of a drive to modernise public infrastructure and kick-start Iraq's economy now that major new oil contracts have been signed.
"This port will be considered the 10th most important in the world because it will connect the Gulf with northern Europe," Transport Minister Amer Abdul-Jabbar told Reuters on Sunday.
The port, to be built on the Gulf south of the city of Basra, would enable the world's biggest ships to dock in Iraq, he said, as it will have a depth of 17 metres (55 feet).
Goods, once unloaded at the new port, would then be loaded onto the new railway system and reach Europe overland more quickly than ships might reach Egypt's Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea.
"This will change the road map for world transport policy ... This dry channel would be a shorter, cheaper and safer alternative," Abdul-Jabbar said.
The port, to be called 'Grand Faw', will be constructed in two three-year stages. It will include 7,000 metres (23,000 feet) of dock ready to receive container ships. The dock for general cargo would be 3,500 metres (11,500 feet).
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/iraq-to-seek-bids-in-april-for-6-bln.html
The election results will be made final no later than the 18th as per the UN.
Well check in tomorrow and everyday after that may be needed and you will see that very thing!
Be sure to check the I-box above post RV for bank information and updates.
Go DINAR!~
Novel event coming up!
Stand by!
IQD in @ .0009 HOLD!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No Lop!
What we are about to see is a "novel event"
The IQD will revalue to a rate range of 1 IQD = $1+ as high as $2.20
Then at the same time they are going to announce and place into circulation the "new currency" this "new currency" will be the lower denominations.
They will also announce the removal of the larger denominations with "3 zeros"
The "3 zero notes" being removed over a set time will be the:
25,000
10,000
5,000
1,000
This is the "removing of the 3 zeros"
While the new currency and old are in circulation there will only be one exchange rate and it will be the same for the old as the new.
So if you have 100,000 dinar it will not matter what size the notes are they will all be of the same value.
For example if it RVs at 1 dinar = $1 your 100,000 dinar will be worth $100,000
IMHO
Hope that helps.
GO DINAR!~
False again Sparkplug!
Iraq is still under UN sanctions and being so is under the control of the IMF and World Bank.
The IMF is the final authority on all exchange rates and currencies world wide.
So it does not matter what the CBI may have for its history for public view and in fact you will find a disclaimer on the CBI site saying the information may not be up to date.
Link to the factual data for the historic exchange rates for the Iraqi Dinar:
http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exportal.aspx?memberKey1=460&date1key=2010-01-31&category=EXCHRT
False information Sparkplug.
You said:
"bellypod,Saddam dinars 1 for 1 exchange, Swiss dinar 1 for 150 IQD. The saddam dinars were at about 3000 per 1US so no big drop from the US actions and the new IQD,it was done years before by the tyrant himself and the printing machines. The strong Swiss Dinar was from and used in the north kurdish region."
That is not true.
When the NID was put in place it was done with a massive overnight devaluation of the Iraqi dinar for reasons i have stated before.
Evidence and proof of this can be found on the IMF historical rates page for the Iraqi Dinar
That rumor is still active and valid.
And was tied to the announcment of the Iraqi election.
The UN was to make a call on the election last Thursday but because of false claims of fraud just moments before the UN canceled.
So with not giving details but it is still 100% active and viable.
Go DINAR!~
No parliamentary immunity after tomorrow
"Actions are underway to extend the work of the parliament to 22 from next month"
Monday, march 15, 2010
In the last day Seek to extend the life of Parliament Four Weeks
No parliamentary immunity after tomorrow
????? - ?????? BAGHDAD - morning
The curtain falls tomorrow on the legislative mandate in the House of Representatives does not allow him to hold any special meeting, after four years, completed a lot and did not succeed in achieving the ambitions and other targets.
With the lifting of parliamentary immunity of deputies from next Wednesday
Actions are underway to extend the work of the parliament to 22 from next month.
MP Abbas al-Bayati said that Parliament would lose its authority on the legislative and constitutional will not be entitled to hold any meeting until a new council.
Bayati said for «morning»: the «end of the mandate of the parliament will not enter the country at the stage of a constitutional vacuum because such a vacuum would have happened not for the parliamentary elections», pointing out that «the first meeting of Parliament linked to the question of art is to declare the results and approval, and thus invite the President of the Republic through a presidential decree contains a request for a meeting of the new parliament .
He stressed that extending the work of the parliament for one day, an act is unconstitutional because the absence of any indication in the Constitution about the possibility of extension, as did the President of the Republic or the Prime Minister the right to request to extend the work of the parliament as a result of the expiration of four calendar years and to hold new legislative elections.
Conversely said the Kurdistan Alliance MP Adel Berwari that parliament's mandate will expire tomorrow, while keeping the government functioning until a new Council of Representatives.
Through Berwari told the morning believed the possibility to ask the President or Prime Minister held an emergency meeting in the event of any problem in the country in case of lack of consensus between the blocs on the outcome of the elections.
On the other hand suggested parliamentary sources familiar with the existence of the movement to prevent the occurrence of any constitutional vacuum after the mandate of parliament on Monday by the extension of up to 22 next month, asserting that it would lift the parliamentary immunity of deputies on Wednesday.
The sources told »Sabah»: The lift the parliamentary immunity of all deputies, including Vice President, will remain as Chairman of the House of Representatives to exercise its administrative until the formation of the new Council», pointing to the existence of efforts towards the judiciary in order to examine the possibility of extending the work of Parliament to 22 next month by relying on the issue is that the opening of the first meeting was in March 16, 2006 and remained open until April 22 when the vote on the government at the time.
In turn, the legal expert said Tarek Harb, the House will end at the end of official working hours of work and no right to hold any meeting, whether regular or exceptional. War, said in a telephone conversation with «morning» that would lift the immunity of all deputies, but they will stay have salaries, security, diplomatic passports.
alsabah
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/no-parliamentary-immunity-after.html
Baghdad Celebrates on Monday
Monday, March 15, 2010
Baghdad today celebrates the anniversary of the Arab city
After an interruption for almost 20 years
Celebrates the city of Baghdad on Monday on the anniversary of the Arab city after a lapse of nearly twenty years.
Baghdad secretariat has prepared a festive occasion will be held this afternoon the gardens of Abu Nawas
According to a statement to be honest, who explained that the festival includes speeches commends this day, which coincides with the anniversary of the founding of the Arab cities in the fifteenth of March 1967, which includes most of the Arab capitals and cities, based in the Kuwaiti capital, Baghdad is one of the cities the institution of this organization.
The statement added that several events will be held by the Secretariat, including the organization of sports race «Marathon» attended by a large crowd of athletes in the capital off from the beginning of Abi Nawas Street and ends near the monument Shahriar and Scheherazade in collaboration with the Federation of athletics in addition to holding an art exhibition in collaboration with the Faculty of Arts beautiful and the establishment of a soccer match between two caps from the regions of the session and the Karrada.
The statement noted «that the municipal districts (14) will be part of campaigns and services for collective action to clean up and beautify the streets and squares and parks throughout the capital, and on this day will be also organized a competition to choose the most beautiful interface dwelling-house in Baghdad and will be announced the winners of this contest through various media, will also fly the flag of the Organization in the sky of Baghdad, as well as raising Iraqi flags and the slogan the city of Baghdad, the city retained to mark the occasion ».
The celebration this year will be in collaboration between the Secretariat and other official bodies including the Ministry of Health to guide the application of the Arab Towns Organization to activate the health activities, medical and preventive measures and treatment of diseases of the citizens of Arab cities.
And celebrates the Day of Arab capitals, Arab city in the fifteenth of March each year the anniversary of the founding of the Arab cities of the League of Arab States in this day in 1967.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/march-15th-celebration-baghdad.html
Yes or more than that. IMHO I expect to see the rate between $1+ to as high as $2.60.
IMHO
That is from the Iraqi Government.
Rate for contracts $1.13 official rate $3.20
This official study done by the Iraqi Ministry of Planning says the official exchange rate for the Iraqi Dinar is $3.20 but calls for the use of a lower rate as per this study and that lower rate is $1.13
You will see that this rate came from the Iraqi Ministry of Planning!
This came right from the Government of Iraq and this most recent study presented here was from October 2009 and is the second one I have seen presented in 3 years.
The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies Below are the central controls related to the exchange rate of the foreign currency to convert the project inputs and outputs from foreign currency to its equivalent in the local currency, and that is by calculating the net discounted present value standard and the internal return on investments in economic analysis that governs investment projects that costs excess one million dinars.
=================================================================
Ministry of Planning government of Iraq
Estimate the shadow price of foreign currency:
1.It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine.
The central controls for adjusting market prices distinguished a group of outputs and inputs traded internationally, where the projects production or usage of them is reflected on the abundance of foreign currency in the economy and thus project outputs or inputs used of such are considered purely foreign currency outputs or inputs.
* What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.
In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished:
·Export-outputs.
·Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports.
·Imported inputs.
·Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports.
·Foreign labor.
According to the pricing rules the value of the output and input (traded) is calculated using export prices (FOB) and import prices (CIF), according to what is listed in the pricing rules.
In other words the pricing rules calculate what the project produces from foreign currency (quantity of exports multiplied by the export price (FOB) in foreign currency or the quantity of substitute imports multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency, as well as what the project uses from foreign currency and imported inputs multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency …. etc.).
In a later step, project outputs and inputs must be converted from the foreign currency to its equivalent in local currency (dinars) by using a specific exchange rate for the foreign currency.
2.Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports… etc.
The justifications to call for the use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official exchange rate are:
·The use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official rate is the appropriate action at the investment planning level to translate the country’s economic strategy aiming at stimulating central investments in the sectors that encourage the development of non-oil exports, as well as sectors that encourage the expansion of domestic production base in order to reduce imports and compensate it with local commodities. This helps to reduce reliance on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports and increases the share of non-oil sectors in the local production.
·The application of the amended exchange rate on project imported inputs will assist in directing investments away from aggregated sectors dependent on imported inputs and the preference of those sectors that rely on locally produced inputs.
·The use of the amended exchange rate helps to correct the balance in favor of the traded goods sectors compared to non-traded goods.
·The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies, through rapid rise of the level of prices and local costs which led by the steadiness of the official exchange rate to change in prices and actual local rate costs that gave an advantage for imported goods at the expense of locally produced goods, meaning that it led to deterioration of the competitiveness of alternative replacement goods and export commodities.
·This action shows that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar, compared to the foreign currency and from the promoting goods substituting imports and export commodities point of view of.
And in support to this view is the state’s utilization and in a broad approach to the customs and quantitative protection policies especially for consumer goods, as well as export subsidies that exports have through an amended export exchange rate.
3.Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.
http://www.mop-iraq.org/mopdc/index.jsp?sid=1&id=308&pid=295
Go DINAR!~
IQD in @ .0009 HOLD!~
Wrong.
That was a LOP.
What we are about to see is a novel solution to a novel situation.
What Iraq is about to do has never been seen by the world before and therefore there are no historical references that can be used as guidelines.
IMHO
Novel Event coming up....
Stand by!
Factual information backed by data with links cannot be
"eliminated".
Facts are facts.
Some investors exchanging U.S. dollars for Iraqi dinars
watch ~ Video dated Feb. 25th
http://abclocal.go.com/wjrt/story?section=news/local&id=7295663
Some investors exchanging U.S. dollars for Iraqi dinars
Thursday, February 25, 2010
MID-MICHIGAN (WJRT) -- (02/24/10)--Some say it's an investment with big returns; others say it comes with big risks.
Either way it's a growing trend: exchanging American money for the Iraqi dinar.
People are banking on the money being worth more if the Iraq government stabilizes.
If you enjoy the sheer luck of playing the lottery or the roller coaster ride of the stock market, then your new fix could be the Iraqi dinar.
They are colorful bills that some investors are buying in bulk at local banks or online. They're banking of big pay out down the line.
http://abclocal.go.com/wjrt/story?section=news/local&id=7295663
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/some-investors-exchanging-us-dollars.html
I agree.
I have always said that the RV will happen at or near the same time as the Chapter 7 sanctions are lifted / modified.
IMHO it will be at the same time or within hours 24-48 max.
If you have been following this board close you would have seen that there was a call from Ban Ki Moon the Secretary General of the UN to "modify" the Iraqi Chapter 7 sanctions and this modification would remove all economic restrictions on Iraq while allowing the issues between Iraq and Kuwait remain until resolved.
The actual links to this info are here within this board and were reported weeks ago.
Now also if you have been following close you would also know that all of these needed provisions have been met and all we are waiting on is the actual formal announcement of this change/modification (or maybe even total removal) to the Chapter 7 sanctions on Iraq and again all of that information is factual and has been presented on this board with links.
So...yes I agree with what you are saying and have been saying the exact same thing for the past 2 years.
I would not be surprised to see the announcement of this change/modification anytime....today included.
We are now in a 100% waiting mode and I expect this novel event at anytime.
My guess is anytime between now and April 1st.
Go DINAR!
IQD in @ .0009 HOLD!~
UN envoy lauds Iraq polls as "very fair"
BAGHDAD, March 14 (KUNA) -- United Nations Secretary General's Special Representative for Iraq Ad Melkert said Sunday the recent legislative elections in Iraq have been held in "very fair and democratic atmospheres." "The electoral process proceeded in sound and transparent atmospheres," Melkert said during his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maleki.
Several parties pushed for successful polls in Iraq particularly in this crucial stage of Iraq's transition, a statement issued here by Al-Maliki's office quoted Melkert as saying.
Al-Maliki said in earlier statements that regardless of the winners or losers, what mattered most was the fairness of the polls.
Al-Maliki, whose list - the State of Law Coalition - held a wide lead according to the early results, said: "We attribute special importance to the statements of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) and the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) about the elections." The Iraqi premier highly appreciated the efforts made by the UNANI and Melkert in monitoring the March 7 elections.
(end) ahh.gb KUNA 142112 Mar 10NNNN
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/un-envoy-lauds-iraq-polls-as-very-fair.html
When? Anytime now. IMHO eom.
He is telling the public there will not be a lop.
Because of the translation issues there has been confusion on this.
Removal of the zeros means removing the larger denominations from circulation and replacing them with the lower denomination.
Not a lop.
All of the confusion is coming because of the fact this is a novel situation that will have a novel solution.
IHMO
Go DINAR!
"Novel event" coming up!
Stand by!
Some good DD
In our initial DD we did on this board we found that the rate assigned to the NID by the appointed contractor "Bearing Point" was assigned as an "artificial program rate" and we also found that it has been shadowed this whole time by a 2nd rate.
Evidence of this second rate were made known to us by the announcement of one bank in Iraq telling of the 2 sets of books and also in the Ministry of Planning information posted below telling of the shadow rates in effect.
Now the reason for these shadow rates (2nd set of books) is because all of this time under the artificial program rate the Iraqis have had to keep books at the true but "secret" rate for accounting accuracy and tracking.
This had to be done because all of this time it has been known that the "artificial program rate" was only temporary and would be someday removed once all stipulations and guidelines were met by the Iraqis.
We on this board have discussed the "artificial program rate" many times before and I found an interesting piece done by someone on a forum else where and thought I would share it here for it is short and to the point.
Here it is:
From the poster Milliondollarbabe:
"Once the Program Rate is Lifted, The We Will See the Real Rate
These are things I have saved for a rainy day until they would become relevant….more supportive info..This was shabs talking….and he mentioned the EPCA which was mentioned in our discussions last night as one of the 3 things that the IMF listed for Iraq to complete. This is significant because he talks of the “program rate”…. the program rate, imo… is the artificial rate that it is now….part of the plan. I know that some people have wondered about whether there really was a “program rate” and couldnt find it documented anywhere…well…here it is…..this was from old emails of mine that I saved. I think this is very telling….I think once the program rate is lifted , then we see the “real rate”….there was an article that came out today to support the “real rate”..let me know what you think
SHABIBI:
What do you see being the challenges in 2009 for banking in Iraq?
We still have plenty of challenges ahead of us. We are hoping to increase our dealings with banks from outside Iraq,
and we will need to re-examine our programmes with international financial organizations like the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). We have been working under an IMF programme, which is going to conclude at the end of the year, whereby we will have completed the 80 per cent of debt reduction that was agreed under the plan. Further, here is the whole purpose of the program rate:
From the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA) program with the IMF, dated, September 2004
DEFINITIONS:
For purposes of monitoring under the program, a program exchange rate will be used. This program exchange rate will be the U.S. dollar/Iraqi dinar exchange rate on or about August 31, 2004, as reported by the CBI (ID 1,460 per U.S.
dollar). The program exchange rate will be used to convert into Iraqi dinars the U.S. dollar value of all CBI foreign assets and liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars, as required. For CBI assets and liabilities denominated in SDRs and in
foreign currencies other than the U.S. dollar, they will be converted in U.S. dollars at their respective SDR-exchange rates prevailing as of August 31, 2004, as published on the IMF’s website.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/…04/cr04325.pdf
Remember this?
early repayment of IMF ahead of new SBA (December 12, 2007) ^top^
The IMF announced today that Iraq has “completed the early repayment of its entire outstanding obligations to the IMF amounting to SDR 297.1 million (about US$470.5 million). The outstanding obligations of Iraq had been contracted under the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance that was approved by the Executive Board on September 29, 2004… The repayment was made in advance of Iraq’s request for a new Stand-By Arrangement, which is scheduled for discussion at the IMF’s Executive Board on December 19, 2007. Under the original schedule, the final repayment of Iraq’s outstanding obligations to the IMF would have taken place in 2009.” The IMF stated that high oil prices enabled Iraq to repay ahead of schedule.
From the Stand-By Arrangement [SBA] with the IMF, dated January 2006.
DEFINITIONS:
4. For purposes of monitoring under the program, a program exchange rate will be used. This program exchange rate will be set at ID 1,500 per U.S. dollar. The program exchange rate will be used to convert into Iraqi dinars the U.S. dollar value of all CBI foreign assets and liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars, as required. For CBI assets and liabilities denominated in SDRs and in foreign currencies other than the U.S. dollar, they will be converted in U.S. dollars at their rates prevailing as of September 30, 2005, as published on the IMF’s website..
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr061 "
The thing many do not understand.
We devalued the IQD.
Overnight.
They are just having returned to them what was taken by sanctions.
This is not magic and this is not some worthless nation getting something for nothing.
Iraq is one of the wealthiest nations on earth with what is estimated to be the largest oil reserve on earth and the value once RETURNED to their currency will duly reflect this wealth.
This is why I say based upon my due diligence and opinion we are about to see a "novel solution" to a novel problem.
This being something no one has seen and therefore people have a hard time understanding what is about to happen.
There is no historical reference for people to go by...this will be something novel and new.
Novel event coming up!
stand by!
GO DINAR!~
Sparkplug from the MOP advisory posted below it states:
QUOTE:
" What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.
In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished:
·Export-outputs.
·Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports.
·Imported inputs.
·Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports.
·Foreign labor ."
END QUOTE.
I have highlighted in red the labor factor and I have heard from others in the oil industry that the contracts in Iraq have the wording in them that the rates for pay for the Iraqi labor on the crews are at these higher exchange rate scales.
Now I was told this myself by someone who is in the oil industry who's company has secured a contract in Iraq.
I have not seen this myself and can only repeat what I was told by this gentleman directly to me.
But this information does support the guidelines we see here in this Ministry of Planning guideline.
So yes it seems that these closely guarded contracts may indeed have these higher exchange rates written right in to them as currency clauses as has been reported by a few people who are in the oil industry.
What they are saying is they plan to remove all of the notes with 3 zeros and replace them with the lower denominations.
The 3 zero notes to be removed are:
25,000
10,000
5,000
1,000
They will be replaced with the lower denominations the new currency.
This will be done at the same time as the revaluation.
IMHO
Rate for contracts $1.13 official rate $3.20
This official study done by the Iraqi Ministry of Planning says the official exchange rate for the Iraqi Dinar is $3.20 but calls for the use of a lower rate as per this study and that lower rate is $1.13
You will see that this rate came from the Iraqi Ministry of Planning!
This came right from the Government of Iraq and this most recent study presented here was from October 2009 and is the second one I have seen presented in 3 years.
The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies Below are the central controls related to the exchange rate of the foreign currency to convert the project inputs and outputs from foreign currency to its equivalent in the local currency, and that is by calculating the net discounted present value standard and the internal return on investments in economic analysis that governs investment projects that costs excess one million dinars.
=================================================================
Ministry of Planning government of Iraq
Estimate the shadow price of foreign currency:
1.It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine.
The central controls for adjusting market prices distinguished a group of outputs and inputs traded internationally, where the projects production or usage of them is reflected on the abundance of foreign currency in the economy and thus project outputs or inputs used of such are considered purely foreign currency outputs or inputs.
* What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.
In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished:
·Export-outputs.
·Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports.
·Imported inputs.
·Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports.
·Foreign labor.
According to the pricing rules the value of the output and input (traded) is calculated using export prices (FOB) and import prices (CIF), according to what is listed in the pricing rules.
In other words the pricing rules calculate what the project produces from foreign currency (quantity of exports multiplied by the export price (FOB) in foreign currency or the quantity of substitute imports multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency, as well as what the project uses from foreign currency and imported inputs multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency …. etc.).
In a later step, project outputs and inputs must be converted from the foreign currency to its equivalent in local currency (dinars) by using a specific exchange rate for the foreign currency.
2.Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports… etc.
The justifications to call for the use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official exchange rate are:
·The use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official rate is the appropriate action at the investment planning level to translate the country’s economic strategy aiming at stimulating central investments in the sectors that encourage the development of non-oil exports, as well as sectors that encourage the expansion of domestic production base in order to reduce imports and compensate it with local commodities. This helps to reduce reliance on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports and increases the share of non-oil sectors in the local production.
·The application of the amended exchange rate on project imported inputs will assist in directing investments away from aggregated sectors dependent on imported inputs and the preference of those sectors that rely on locally produced inputs.
·The use of the amended exchange rate helps to correct the balance in favor of the traded goods sectors compared to non-traded goods.
·The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies, through rapid rise of the level of prices and local costs which led by the steadiness of the official exchange rate to change in prices and actual local rate costs that gave an advantage for imported goods at the expense of locally produced goods, meaning that it led to deterioration of the competitiveness of alternative replacement goods and export commodities.
·This action shows that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar, compared to the foreign currency and from the promoting goods substituting imports and export commodities point of view of.
And in support to this view is the state’s utilization and in a broad approach to the customs and quantitative protection policies especially for consumer goods, as well as export subsidies that exports have through an amended export exchange rate.
3.Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.
http://www.mop-iraq.org/mopdc/index.jsp?sid=1&id=308&pid=295
Go DINAR!~
IQD in @ .0009 HOLD!~
No if you will remember the future revalued amount was planned for and stated by the Iraqi Ministry of Planning.
They advised all Iraqi companies and agencies that all contracts were to be written with the Iraqi Dinar calculated at the value of $1.13 but reminded all agencies that the official exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar is $3.20
This is the exchange rate stated for the contracts and this is why they must revalue and not LOP.
That is all fact and not speculation and that also backs the comments made in the articles today.
No Sparkplug you are adding your own words...no where in that article does it say: "
until after the election process is over and their new political process is in motion with all the new leaders."
But it DOES say that
"the contracts were signed according to some of them on the basis of the Iraqi currency,
"adding that" what some media about the deletion of zeros untrue. "
Which is saying that because of the contracts many are based upon the value of the Iraqi Dinar they CANNOT do a LOP or it would void the contracts!
So the only way to do it without voiding the contracts is to revalue and issue lower denominations.
No Lop one more source.
Economic seminar chaired by the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank in Karbala in which he denies the existence of a formal decision to delete the zeros
Held on Saturday morning, an economic seminar at the University of Karbala led by the deputy governor of Central Bank of Iraq has denied the existence of a formal decision about deleting three zeros from the Iraqi currency has also picked up some in the media, as one economist said that inflation in the Iraqi budget prevents the phase transition qualified bank to support its currency and raise the value in the global market.
He (Ahmad Bureihi) on Saturday during the symposium "to" Central Bank of Iraq has so far not issued any formal decision to delete the three zeroes of the Iraqi currency traded in the markets, he did not start until the law on the deletion of zeros, "adding that" such a decision is a matter of administrative regard to administrative and political process in the country in order to achieve a clear monetary policy, noting that this would require a study of contracts and contracting processes that are still not completed its consequent processes of paying money to the companies that started its work since the contracts were signed according to some of them on the basis of currency Iraq as he put it. ""
What has appeared in some media about the intention of the Iraqi Central Bank to delete the three zeroes of the Iraqi currency news unfounded. "
While Bush's Professor of Economics at the University of Karbala, Dr. (Abbas Kazim) Iraq is not possible to issue a new currency has the ability to compete with regional currencies, because of inflation suffered by the Iraqi budget, adding that the decision to delete Alasfagr risk at this stage may lead to trouble, "as he put it.
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://non14.net/display.php%3Fid%3D8014&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhjw4zWamZ7Ca66ue5vO4pOWwoNHCA
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/economic-seminar-chaired-by-deputy.html
No LOP! CBI denies lifting of the zeroes of the Iraqi currency
Conscious / Office of Karbala / T.. A
13/3/2010 7:46pm
Deputy central bank governor denies lifting of the zeroes of the Iraqi currency
Denied, deputy governor of Central Bank of Iraq Ahmed Bureihi a formal decision about deleting three zeros from the Iraqi currency has also picked up some of the media.
The Bureihi a seminar held by the University of Karbala today and was attended by correspondent (News Agency, Iraqi Information / conscious) that ...
~"the CBI has so far not issued any formal decision to delete the three zeroes of the Iraqi currency traded in the markets,
he did not start until the law to delete the zeros," adding that
"the issuance of such a decision on how the political process and the country's administrative.
As well as the request to the operations of Contracts and contracting, which is still not completed its consequent processes of paying money to the companies that started its work since ...
~the contracts were signed according to some of them on the basis of the Iraqi currency,
"adding that" what some media about the deletion of zeros untrue. "
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?
hl=en&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://al-iraqnews.net/new/mhafadat/58382.html&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhhGNl_tUZzcr3UkWUXskz-8DwNhBA
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/deputy-central-bank-governor-denies.html
No LOP! CBI denies lifting of the zeroes of the Iraqi currency
Conscious / Office of Karbala / T.. A
13/3/2010 7:46pm
Deputy central bank governor denies lifting of the zeroes of the Iraqi currency
Denied, deputy governor of Central Bank of Iraq Ahmed Bureihi a formal decision about deleting three zeros from the Iraqi currency has also picked up some of the media.
The Bureihi a seminar held by the University of Karbala today and was attended by correspondent (News Agency, Iraqi Information / conscious) that ...
~"the CBI has so far not issued any formal decision to delete the three zeroes of the Iraqi currency traded in the markets,
he did not start until the law to delete the zeros," adding that
"the issuance of such a decision on how the political process and the country's administrative.
As well as the request to the operations of Contracts and contracting, which is still not completed its consequent processes of paying money to the companies that started its work since ...
~the contracts were signed according to some of them on the basis of the Iraqi currency,
"adding that" what some media about the deletion of zeros untrue. " http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?
hl=en&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://al-iraqnews.net/new/mhafadat/58382.html&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhhGNl_tUZzcr3UkWUXskz-8DwNhBA
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/deputy-central-bank-governor-denies.html
No Botat I have not bought any dinar for almost a year...and as a matter of fact in less than 30 days I will be holding all long term!
Most was long term for a long while but I have some that were still short term.
Sorry maybe someone else has an answer.
I think you are right and the banks are just waiting on the announcment of the changes.
Seems to me we are closer than most know.
Very close.
IMHO
Go DINAR!
IQD in @ .0009 HOLD!~
Iraq completes three economic reform programs supported by IMF
Iraq completes three economic reform programs supported by IMF
Since 2004, Iraq has successfully completed three economic reform programs supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF): one under the Emergency Post Conflict Assistance (EPCA) facility and two (precautionary) Stand-By Arrangements (SBA). During this period, Iraq has made considerable progress under very difficult circumstances, including a very challenging security situation. Iraq has successfully reduced inflation, showed fiscal discipline, and started rebuilding our economic institutions. These achievements have helped us to obtain generous debt relief from Paris Club and other creditors that has substantially improved our external position.
These hard-won gains of recent years could be undermined, however, by the large drop in oil prices from their peak levels of mid-2008. After reaching a high in July 2008, when Iraqi crude oil sold for $124 per barrel, prices fell to a low of $35 per barrel in January 2009, before slowly recovering to a level of around $68 per barrel in the second half of 2009. The average export price in 2009 was $57 per barrel, well below the average export price of $92 per barrel in 2008. In addition, due to dire infrastructural problems, the volume of oil exports in the early months of the year fell below 2008 levels (to 1.75 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the first five months). Iraq has been working to address these problems and oil exports reached 2 mbpd towards the end of 2009, bringing the average for the year to 1.88 mbpd.
As the proceeds from oil exports account for the bulk of our total export receipts, and for the majority of government revenues, the lower oil prices are posing considerable challenges to our internal and external economic stability.
To maintain macroeconomic stability, and foster growth and employment, Iraq has adopted an economic adjustment program for 2010–11 for which it seek support from the IMF under a new 2-year SBA, as well as financial assistance from other international institutions and countries. This Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) describes our economic objectives and policies, including the structural reforms, for this period.
Due to the temporary drop in oil production, real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 4 percent in 2009, from almost 10 percent in 2008. There are indications, however, that the improved security situation has supported economic activity in the non-oil sector. The Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT) estimates that real non-oil GDP grew by about 5½ percent in 2008 and that the pace of non-oil growth remained broadly unchanged in 2009.
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has been successful in keeping inflation under control, by managing the exchange rate and by keeping the policy interest rate positive in real terms. When inflationary pressures emerged in 2008, the CBI stepped up the rate of appreciation of the dinar vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar (to about ½ percent per month until late 2008), which also helped counter dollarization. As a result, headline inflation fell to 6.8 percent by end-2008. Inflation remained well below the target of 6 percent in 2009, with prices falling by 4½ percent, mainly because of a further decline in fuel prices. Food price inflation has picked up more recently, however, and core inflation (excluding fuel and transportation) ended 2009 a 6 percent, down from 12 percent at end-2008.
With headline and core inflation low, the exchange rate has been stable since the beginning of 2009. The policy interest rate has been reduced gradually to 7 percent. Net international reserves increased to $50.2 billion at end-2008, but have fallen to $44 billion at end-2009, reflecting the drawdown of the government’s deposits with the CBI.
The government budget recorded a modest surplus in 2008 (almost 2 percent of GDP). Higher-than-expected oil revenues enabled us to increase spending. Particularly, and due also to our efforts to improve the execution of the investment budget, Iraq was able to substantially increase capital expenditures in 2008, compared to the previous year.
With the drop in oil prices, the external current account is estimated to have moved into a large deficit in 2009, of over 20 percent of GDP. And as oil revenues account for the bulk of government revenues, the government budget is also estimated to have shifted into a large deficit, of over 20 percent of GDP in 2009. The 2009 budget, which was adopted at a time when sharply lower oil revenues were expected, was designed to support as much as possible our investment program and the required security outlays, while containing current spending. The bombings of the Ministry of Finance in August and December of 2009, however, affected our capacity to fully execute our investment plans.
Despite this, the 2009 budget deficit, based on preliminary financing data, is estimated to have recorded a deficit of over ID 17 trillion. This deficit was covered mainly by drawing down the balances the government had built up in the CBI and by mobilizing domestic resources through the issuance of Treasury bills.
The global financial and economic crisis has worsened Iraq’s external outlook significantly. The drop in oil export revenues, in particular, presents a major challenge in view of the country’s vast reconstruction and rehabilitation spending needs. Under these circumstances, Iraq is determined to strengthen fiscal discipline to better ensure that the reduced public resources are used more efficiently and that fiscal sustainability is preserved.
Iraq has adopted a budget for 2010 that aims to further reduce non-priority current outlays and align the investment budget with our national priorities and implementation capacity. Iraq seeks to reduce the government’s budget deficits during 2010 and 2011, with a view to returning to a budget surplus in 2012. In addition, Iraq aims to maintain a financial buffer in our accounts equivalent to three months of government wages. Appropriate management of the exchange rate and an interest rate policy aimed at keeping the policy interest rate positive in real terms will continue to be the main instruments to keeping inflation under control. Iraq will also continue to advance our structural reform agenda, with a particular emphasis on public financial management and financial sector reforms.
By continuing to pursue sound economic policies and intensifying our efforts to boost oil production, Iraq aims to accelerate the pace of economic growth. Iraq seeks to increase average crude oil production and exports to 3.1 mbpd and 2.5 mbpd, respectively, by 2012. As a result, Iraq expects real GDP growth to increase to almost 7 percent in 2010 and to 7½-8 percent in 2011 and 2012. Iraq will also strive to keep inflation at around 5–6 percent in the coming years.
As oil prices and production are expected to rise in the medium term, the current account deficit would narrow markedly in the coming years. Since the decline in oil revenues is expected to be temporary until oil production reaches higher levels, Iraq intends to secure adequate financing to avoid a major economic contraction. The international reserves held in the CBI and the DFI (excluding the FMS subaccount) are expected to fall from $55 billion at end-2009 to $46 billion by end-2010 and to broadly remain at that level in 2011 and 2012, before increasing in the following years.
The 2010 Budget
The 2010 budget aims to contain current spending to limit the deficit and create room for higher investment outlays. In this regard, Iraq will contain the government’s wage bill by refraining from granting new wage increases following the large catch-up in salaries in 2008, which carried over into 2009. In addition, net hiring of non-security personnel in 2010 will be limited to new teachers and doctors, until the civil service census is completed. To limit spending related to the in-kind Public Distribution System (PDS), Iraq has initiated reforms that seek to target the benefits of the program to the poorest Iraqis. In addition, Iraq has decided to reduce the number and volume of goods distributed under the PDS system. At the same time, Iraq plans to expand the new targeted cash transfer system. Generalized transfers, in particular to state-owned enterprises, will be sharply reduced, reflecting the improved financial position of many of these enterprises. As a result of these measures, current spending will be curtailed at ID 62.9 trillion (in the IMF’s presentation). By doing so, Iraq has been able to increase the capital budget to ID 25.8 trillion, with an increased focus on electricity, water and sanitation, health, and agriculture. The overall deficit will be limited to ID 17.9 trillion (19 percent of GDP) in 2010 (in the IMF’s presentation).
As our financing needs in 2010 will still be substantial, Iraq will step up our efforts to mobilize domestic financing through the Treasury bill market. To that end, Iraq will conduct regular auctions, and refrain from cancellations, while allowing interest rates to be determined by the market. This will have additional benefits by determining a benchmark interest rate, while the development of a secondary market for treasury bills will allow banks to improve their liquidity management. Also, to ensure integrity in our payment and budget systems, Iraq will refrain from accumulating domestic expenditure arrears.
http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.co … y-imf.html
Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund
Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund
Article VIII – General Obligations of Members
Section 1. Introduction
In addition to the obligations assumed under other articles of this Agreement, each member undertakes the obligations set out in this Article.
Section 2. Avoidance of restrictions on current payments
(a) Subject to the provisions of Article VII, Section 3(b) and Article XIV, Section 2, no member shall, without the approval of the Fund, impose restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions.
(b) Exchange contracts which involve the currency of any member and which are contrary to the exchange control regulations of that member maintained or imposed consistently with this Agreement shall be unenforceable in the territories of any member. In addition, members may, by mutual accord, cooperate in measures for the purpose of making the exchange control regulations of either member more effective, provided that such measures and regulations are consistent with this Agreement.
Section 3. Avoidance of discriminatory currency practices
No member shall engage in, or permit any of its fiscal agencies referred to in Article V, Section 1 to engage in, any discriminatory currency arrangements or multiple currency practices, whether within or outside margins under Article IV or prescribed by or under Schedule C, except as authorized under this Agreement or approved by the Fund. If such arrangements and practices are engaged in at the date when this Agreement enters into force, the member concerned shall consult with the Fund as to their progressive removal unless they are maintained or imposed under Article XIV, Section 2, in which case the provisions of Section 3 of that Article shall apply.
Section 4. Convertibility of foreign-held balances
(a) Each member shall buy balances of its currency held by another member if the latter, in requesting the purchase, represents:
(i)
that the balances to be bought have been recently acquired as a result of current transactions; or
(ii)
that their conversion is needed for making payments for current transactions.
The buying member shall have the option to pay either in special drawing rights, subject to Article XIX, Section 4, or in the currency of the member making the request.
(b) The obligation in (a) above shall not apply when:
(i)
the convertibility of the balances has been restricted consistently with Section 2 of this Article or Article VI, Section 3;
(ii)
the balances have accumulated as a result of transactions effected before the removal by a member of restrictions maintained or imposed under Article XIV, Section 2;
(iii)
the balances have been acquired contrary to the exchange regulations of the member which is asked to buy them;
(iv)
the currency of the member requesting the purchase has been declared scarce under Article VII, Section 3(a); or
(v)
the member requested to make the purchase is for any reason not entitled to buy currencies of other members from the Fund for its own currency.
Section 5. Furnishing of information
(a) The Fund may require members to furnish it with such information as it deems necessary for its activities, including, as the minimum necessary for the effective discharge of the Fund’s duties, national data on the following matters:
(i)
official holdings at home and abroad of (1) gold, (2) foreign exchange;
(ii)
holdings at home and abroad by banking and financial agencies, other than official agencies, of (1) gold, (2) foreign exchange;
(iii)
production of gold;
(iv)
gold exports and imports according to countries of destination and origin;
(v)
total exports and imports of merchandise, in terms of local currency values, according to countries of destination and origin;
(vi)
international balance of payments, including (1) trade in goods and services, (2) gold transactions, (3) known capital transactions, and (4) other items;
(vii)
international investment position, i.e., investments within the territories of the member owned abroad and investments abroad owned by persons in its territories so far as it is possible to furnish this information;
(viii)
national income;
(ix)
price indices, i.e., indices of commodity prices in wholesale and retail markets and of export and import prices;
(x)
buying and selling rates for foreign currencies;
(xi)
exchange controls, i.e., a comprehensive statement of exchange controls in effect at the time of assuming membership in the Fund and details of subsequent changes as they occur; and
(xii)
where official clearing arrangements exist, details of amounts awaiting clearance in respect of commercial and financial transactions, and of the length of time during which such arrears have been outstanding.
(b) In requesting information the Fund shall take into consideration the varying ability of members to furnish the data requested. Members shall be under no obligation to furnish information in such detail that the affairs of individuals or corporations are disclosed. Members undertake, however, to furnish the desired information in as detailed and accurate a manner as is practicable and, so far as possible, to avoid mere estimates.
(c) The Fund may arrange to obtain further information by agreement with members. It shall act as a centre for the collection and exchange of information on monetary and financial problems, thus facilitating the preparation of studies designed to assist members in developing policies which further the purposes of the Fund.
Section 6. Consultation between members regarding existing international agreements
Where under this Agreement a member is authorized in the special or temporary circumstances specified in the Agreement to maintain or establish restrictions on exchange transactions, and there are other engagements between members entered into prior to this Agreement which conflict with the application of such restrictions, the parties to such engagements shall consult with one another with a view to making such mutually acceptable adjustments as may be necessary. The provisions of this Article shall be without prejudice to the operation of Article VII, Section 5.
Section 7. Obligation to collaborate regarding policies on reserve assets
Each member undertakes to collaborate with the Fund and with other members in order to ensure that the policies of the member with respect to reserve assets shall be consistent with the objectives of promoting better international surveillance of international liquidity and making the special drawing right the principal reserve asset in the international monetary system.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/aa08.htm
IMF - Iraq to improve statistical database
3-12-2010
As Iraq intends to use the domestic counterpart of IMF resources for budget support, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)—which is the fiscal agent—will request the IMF to disburse the resources directly into a government account at the CBI. To provide adequate safeguards to the Fund, the following steps have been taken or will be implemented in the near future:
- A Memorandum of Understanding has been agreed between the CBI and the government clarifying responsibilities with regard to servicing the debt to the Fund;
- An external auditor has been appointed to undertake the audit of the CBI 2008 financial statements in accordance with International Standards on Auditing, and the audit is expected to be completed by March 31, 2010.
The external auditor has already completed a verification of the CBI’s international reserves as of June 30, 2009.[/color] The completion of the external audit will allow the IMF to prepare a safeguards assessment update by the time of the first review of the program. In the future, the CBI will work with the Ministry of Finance to adopt a timely selection and rotation policy for future audits; an auditor for the 2009 CBI financial statements will be appointed before end-February 2010.
[color=red]- The external auditor will also undertake special audits of (i) CBI Net International Reserves, and a full count of gold and foreign reserves held at the Central Bank, as of June 30, 2009, (ii) CBI data reported to the Fund, including, but not limited to, Net International Reserves, Net Domestic Assets, credit to government and a full count of gold and foreign reserves held at the Central Bank, as of December 31, 2009, December 31, 2010, December 31, 2011 and the other test dates during the SBA, and (iii) procedures surrounding government accounts at the CBI.
Progress has been made in moving toward accepting the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2(a), 3, and 4, of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement. Iraq has worked with IMF staff to complete the review of exchange laws and regulations and are considering measures to remove the identified exchange restrictions on current international transactions.
Iraq remains committed to avoid imposing any restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions or introducing any multiple currency practices.
Iraq will continue efforts to resolve outstanding external claims under terms that are consistent with the 2004 Paris Club agreement. Bilateral agreements with twelve non- Paris Club official creditors have already been signed and are being implemented. Iraq will continue best efforts to reach bilateral debt agreements with the remaining non-Paris Club creditors.
The United Arab Emirates has announced the full cancellation of Iraq’s debt, and implementation of a bilateral agreement with Greece is awaiting the Greek parliament’s approval. Debt reconciliation was completed with Morocco, Egypt, and China, and Iraq hopes to sign the relevant debt agreements, particularly with China with which an agreement has been initialed recently, in the near future.
Regarding private creditors, most of the commercial debt has been restructured, and is serviced as agreed. Iraq also expects that the proceeds of the liquidation of the London branch of Rafidain Bank will be distributed to private claim holders by the end of the year.
Efforts will continue to improve Iraq’s statistical database. Monetary and balance of payments data are now being published in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics regularly, and annual national accounts data have been compiled up to 2007. Iraq will focus on improving the quality of these annual data developing quarterly national accounts data.
While the Socio-Economic Household Survey has been completed, the updating of the CPI weights has been delayed for a number of reasons. A new national coordinator for the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) has been appointed.
As of December 15, Iraq is participating in the GDDS and comprehensive information on Iraq’s statistical production and dissemination practices now appears on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board.
http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/201003125159/Economics/imf-iraq-to-improve-statistical-database.html
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/imf-iraq-to-improve-statistical.html
Iraq on a roll
(This is about one year old but good information)
Being the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq is quite possibly the single most challenging job for a Central Banker anywhere in the world. To reduce inflation and keep a currency stable, while operating in one of the most violent wars in modern times, is a phenomenal feat of economic, and possibly psychological, prowess. In an exclusive interview in Baghdad, Dr Sinan Al-Shibibi told Mike Gallagher what it takes to turn a ruined economy around, while living with the daily death and destruction which nearly brought Iraq to its knees.
Dr Sinan Al-Shibibi is the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq and has been at the helm of one of the world’s most challenging banking positions since he took up his post in June 2003.
Dr Shibibi walked into a shell of a Central Bank which technically only existed on paper because it had been comprehensively looted, first by members of Saddam Hussein’s government in what is widely considered to be the world’s biggest ever armed robbery when the regime’s members absconded with an estimated $1 billion, and latterly when it was again looted and then razed in subsequent bombings by insurgents.
Dr Shibibi began his career as Head of the Importation and Marketing section of Iraq’s Ministry of Oil in 1975, before moving to the Ministry of Planning as Chief of the Plan Preparation and Co-ordination Division two years later. In 1980 he moved to Geneva to join the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and he remained there until his retirement as a Senior Economist in 2001, when he left to become a consultant on trade, debt and finance.
During his time at UNCTAD in Geneva, Dr Shibibi managed projects on the implementation of policy, analytical and the institutional aspects of debt management, including the implementation of UNCTAD’s Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS) in several Arab countries. Dr Shibibi has also undertaken extensive research on financial flows, the economics of disarmament, balance of payments, external debt, globalisation, and the Iraqi economy.
He graduated from the University of Bristol, England, with a Ph.D. in Economics and has published several research papers on a number of subjects, including ‘Globalisation of Finance: Implications for macroeconomic policies and debt management’ in 2001 and prophetically, a paper titled, ‘Prospects for the Iraqi Economy: Facing the new reality’ in 1997. The paper was published in a book with the same title in November 1997 and reprinted by the UNCTAD secretariat. It dealt with the effects of sanctions, debt, and war reparations on the then future prospects of the Iraqi economy.
The security situation in Iraq has improved dramatically and investors are showing renewed interest in the oil-rich country, while the brain drain is showing signs of a reverse. Iraq is open for business and a number of Middle Eastern banks, such as NBK, Ahli United Bank and Burgan Bank have already gained a foothold there.
Are you going to start offering banking licences?
There have been applications for banking licences and we have been considering their merits. The banking sector in Iraq still faces a lot of challenges and there needs to be a lot of improvement in Iraq’s banking sector. There needs to be consolidation. There also needs to be a change in the structure of the banking environment because there are a lot of family-owned banks around. Iraq’s banks need to be more ambitious and that means they will need to take chances and it will require a greater willingness on their part to compete with other local and international banks. The banks will need some sort of deliberate encouragement from the public sector, as well as from the government, such as allowing them to issue letters of credit for state-owned enterprises.
Many people were thinking that, because of our policy of combating inflation, the Central Bank of Iraq was offering high interest rates for banks to get them to come and leave their funds there, instead of going out into the market and looking for better deals. Some would say that they were acting in this manner because of the security situation, although it is something I do not believe.
If a foreign bank was interested in entering Iraq, what would it have to do? What would the Central Bank of Iraq be offering by way of guidance or advice? What would you say to them?
By law there can only be six banks with majority foreign ownership in Iraq, although that article is due to expire on 31 December 2008. What they are facing after that is a requirement that they put up a minimum of IQD 50 billion ($43 million) in paid-in capital, so they really have to put their money upfront. They have to prove that they are serious about being banks and not just coming to Iraq to be investment houses.
Is there more room for banks in Iraq?
I would think so. We would welcome foreign banks if they came to Iraq, but they would have to come with the intention of offering something concrete for the banking system in Iraq. We can’t have foreign banks operating by remote control. We can’t have remote-controlled ownership. They need to have an active presence on the ground and work with the people, face to face and try to offer them something realistic by way of banking services and products. They need to open a branch and be competitive with other banks in what they are offering customers. Of course security is a problem, but we will cooperate with them in suggesting security arrangements. The real economy is going to develop and there are going to be enormous opportunities, so I think it is vital that they come early and establish a presence and cooperate with the private sector by offering them competitive products and services.
What about Islamic finance?
We have a few banks which have been founded on Islamic principles, but we are still in the process of developing the regulation in that respect. I don’t want to hide the fact that potential demand is high, and probably more so after the credit crisis, because some people are beginning to think that Islamic finance will not be as affected by the global downturn as conventional finance because it relates to the real economy. We will have to see if that is the case, but we have a few banks and they are working. We have a regulatory framework in place, but I think it still needs to be made clearer.
What do you see being the challenges in 2009 for banking in Iraq?
We still have plenty of challenges ahead of us. We are hoping to increase our dealings with banks from outside Iraq and we will need to re-examine our programmes with international financial organisations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have been working under an IMF programme which is going to conclude at the end of the year, whereby we will have completed the 80 per cent of debt reduction that was agreed under the plan. We will probably have to establish new relationships with local banks.
I do not want to foresee any new arrangements with the IMF because this is something that still needs to be debated, but we are definitely going to have increased dealings with institutes like the Bank of International Settlements and we already have a lot of regional cooperation. The most important thing is going to be getting some help in our efforts to provide the local banks with information about how the credit crisis might impact upon them. I know we are not affected directly by the credit crisis, nor do we want to be affected by it.
I really want to concentrate on getting the banks to be more ambitious. I will make a special effort on that and it will be part of what we will be looking at when we evaluate the performance of the banking sector.
Will 2009 be the year when Iraq’s banks show their true potential?
One thing that stands out about banks in Iraq is that their loan portfolios do not exceed their aggregate capital and from a regulatory standpoint, without other legal infrastructure that mitigates risk, this kind of conservative banking is not a bad thing. The total assets of the private banks have grown by 90 per cent since 1 January 2007, which is a strong sign of the confidence that the public places in local banks. Deposits have grown by 70 per cent, but the loans and capital have each only grown by 60 per cent during the same period and they continue to remain at that level. It means that every single loan in the banking system could fail and they would still have assets to cover the depositors.
I want the banks to move more into the productive sector and contribute to the real banking environment, rather than continually come to the Central Bank to deposit their funds and try to make money off the interest. That is why I think 2009 is going to be very important – it is going to be the year of financial intermediation.
The banks are going to have to do something with the deposits that they take. If they take deposits, then they have to be prepared to lend to customers and this is the issue. I think there should be some deliberate policy to encourage them to get their hands on some of the business from both the private and public sector.
Right now, although it is not a legal requirement, state-owned enterprises and private businesses tend to use Trade Bank of Iraq for any letters of credit. State-owned enterprises should be free to do business with private banks. This is a policy which we explicitly advocate, even through letters and circulars, that communication between government enterprises and private banks should be direct.
What were the biggest challenges you faced when you took up your post as the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq in 2003?
Well, first off, there was no functioning Central Bank building because it had been destroyed and looted before and shortly after the invasion. Given that the economy was largely cash-based, getting a currency exchange up and running was an important undertaking and something we quickly went to work on setting up. We had a brief period of grace shortly after the fall of the government of Saddam Hussein and before the violence began to escalate in the spring of 2004, which we used to our advantage to get things up and running. Getting that done was vital because it helped to restore confidence in the monetary system at a time when confidence was fragile.
The immediate introduction of a new Central Bank law by the then governing Coalition Provisional Authority was helpful because it was geared towards market-based reforms. It was very different from what we used to have and we needed not only the staff to go with that, but what was equally important was having the right mentality at a political level to go with such dramatic changes to the banking system. Pulling that off required a lot of coordination between the likes of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance and other parts of the government, especially because it meant having such laws included in the draft of the new constitution for Iraq which was being drawn up at the time.
Was the establishment of a functional banking framework the first major challenge?
Opening up is not easy, but we knew that in order to get things done, we had to be prepared to talk to a lot of organisations and banks about new ideas and skillsets.
However, the deteriorating security situation scared off a lot of international banks and financial institutions. Getting them to come to Iraq was obviously very difficult. Despite that, we have managed to establish and maintain those relationships which helped to establish what might be called the bank’s framework. Managing to integrate with the rest of the world, especially at an economic level went very well. The staff of the Central Bank of Iraq are incredibly hard workers. They frequently came in on weekends and regularly worked late into the night, despite the security situation over the past few years.
What would you say were the early successes?
Creating a functioning system for the foreign currency auction was one notable success, as was managing to restructure the obligations of the Ministry of Finance towards the Central Bank. The reserve requirement is now prudently regulated. We managed to not only develop monetary policy, but also managed to begin executing it and enforcing it. We also had to explain to the government what the Central Bank was and what it did. Now we have a Central Bank which is respected for doing what it is supposed to do, such as maintaining price stability. In five years, the Central Bank of Iraq has gone from being the arm of a totalitarian regime (under Saddam Hussein) to one that is respected by all the major global financial institutions.
Sorting out the debt reduction with the IMF and managing to reduce it by 80 per cent was another major achievement and we should have reduced the final tranche by the end of 2008. This was something which we negotiated in, I think, November 2004, and in which Adil Abdul Mahdi, the Vice-President of Iraq, was a key figure. Thanks to his leadership, we managed to get a debt reduction of 80 per cent and I think it is the biggest debt reduction of its kind for a middle income developing country.
Is the independence of the Central Bank of Iraq a key aspect of this success?
We have worked hard to coordinate with the government and to explain to them the benefits of having an independent Central Bank. This independence is, I would say, good for the government itself, although I would prefer to refrain from using the word ‘independence,’ it does allow us to maintain price stability and that is good for the government. We achieve stability, but it is also an achievement for the government.
The important point is that the Central Bank is always in discussion with the government. Before this it would have been the government which would have been making all the decisions and the Central Bank would have had to follow on from there. There is discussion - it is not one-sided. The government comes to us with any questions they have, not just on monetary policy, but also economic factors, such as the availability of the dollar and auction and exchange rates. They don’t just take decisions without coordinating with the Central Bank.
Given the amount of change that banking in the Middle East is undergoing, what kinds of discussions are you having with other Middle Eastern Central Banks?
I am in regular discussion with my counterparts throughout the region. We always meet through the Arab Monetary Fund and we are always talking on the phone, especially these days, to discuss a lot of things which are going on in the region and beyond.
I think the Central Banks of the Middle East definitely have some challenges now because they are more open than Iraq to the world economy due to the instruments which they employ, which are more related to the kinds of instruments the West uses. Iraq is of course open, but we still do not have things like derivatives and so on.
So, yes, we are always in discussion with them, for instance when a bank bailout takes place, but they are doing well so far. We have been discussing the implications of things like bank bailouts. I regularly meet†Arab governors and other governors during the sessions†of the Arab Monetary Fund.
Inflation has been a problem throughout the Middle East in the past few years. What has the Central Bank of Iraq been doing in this respect?
Core inflation is currently 13.6 per cent and it has stayed within a steady band for quite some time, particularly over the past three months. Inflation has definitely been a challenge over the past year. The issue here is that we are more or less basing our monetary policy on our ability and achievements in combating inflation. Through a programme with various intra governmental organisations, we managed to reduce headline inflation from 64.8 per cent to a headline rate of seven per cent. We actually had minus figures for a while.
Was monetary policy the tool you used to check inflation?
I wouldn’t say it is exclusively monetary policy that has brought inflation down; it is a combination of measures. A lot of economists do not believe that monetary policy in this particular situation made a big difference, and instead preferred to look at developments in the real economy. Nevertheless, I believe monetary policy was quite effective.
I and a lot of my colleagues who worked in Iraq in the 1960s used to believe that inflation was a natural outcome of development. It is not unusual to have inflation during the development process and people even now think the same. What they do not understand is that inflation destroys any development achievement.
There has been a lot of speculation that the Iraqi dinar might be revalued at some point as the economy becomes stronger as a result of increased oil revenue. Is there going to be a revaluation of dinar in the near future?
I always refrain from making any comments on the subject of revaluation. I refrain because everybody will always believe a Central Banker over anyone else on this matter, so I am not going to say anything.
http://www.cpifinancial.net/v2/Magazine.aspx?v=1&aid=1809&cat=BME&in=102
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/03/iraq-on-roll-dr-sinan-al-shibibi-is.html
IQD...HOLD! HOLD! HOLD! eom.
Rick, IMHO we are right on this...I would not be surprised to see action taken this very weekend.
The election was a big deal and something that needed to be done to show the UN and the world that the nation of Iraq is indeed committed to democracy in action and not just words.
For this to be a success there must be stability in Iraq and the region.
IMHO I think we are further along on many issues that we know and that most of all needed things are done and being held back.
IMHO we will see the lifting/modification of Chapter 7 economic sanctions at or near the same time as the announcement from the CBI of the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar.
In fact we may see the announcement of the lifting/modification of sanctions and then the announcement of the revaluation right after.
IMHO the revaluation is a novel event never seen before and will be the combination of the revaluation to over $1 = 1 Dinar and the announcement of the new lower denominations that will replace the higher denominations.
IMHO the higher denominations will be removed with a deadline being set for all to be taken in but will circulate at the same time as the new lower denominations and there will not be two separate exchange rates.
So if 1 dinar = $1 the the 25,000 dinar note will be worth $25,000.
IMHO this all could happen as soon as this very weekend.
My WAG of the rate is based upon statements from the GOI on 1 dinar to equal or exceed 1 dollar and upon my due diligence of the coming GCC common currency and statements made that the projected value of the Gulf Dinar will be at or near $2.60 or so, I would GUESS that the rate of revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar will be somewhere between $1 and $2.20
All of the above is nothing more than my own personal speculation based upon my own personal due diligence and is presented as nothing more than an opinion of mine and is not intended to be a projection and or prediction.
Go freakin DINAR!~
IQD in @ .0009 HOLD!~