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How do any of you believe still that ADXS has any kind of deal lined up when you know for 6 months they have been trying to find a partner for their stage 3 AXAL and instead had to use the entire shelf offering. Now R/S proxy on table. Nobody is shorting here at these levels, but you better believe they will as soon as R/S happens. I mean idol what else has to happen for you guys to finally let this go and save some equity. Then recover some back by shorting when. They split. Amgen walks away from them when they easily could’ve bought says it all. Instead they preferred to just burn 65 million.....its reckless to pump this any further. These guys were crooks from day one and failed executing at every corner.
If you are not approaching this company as a day trade stock then you are only setting yourself up for further abuse by these incompetent fools. This is in full death spiral and Amgen partnership was the only thing that could’ve prevented it. Amgen will not walk away from 65m and not outright buy the company if they saw any value in ADXS science as well. Just like GILD recently did for the company they bought. The loss hurts but continuing the abuse is pointless. The writing was all there at 1.55 when I left. They just got way more obvious.
All anyone should see today is a nice opportunity to sell out before the R/S for some extra equity. Then wait 30 days and go back in after the R/S dilution if still believe. They would not do that proxy if had any way around it.
1) What can possibly get ADXS over 1$ now? Only a new major partnership could.
2) Why would Amgen walk away from 65m and all their shares if they felt anything of value could come of the partnership or that the data was good?
3) If they still can’t find a partner for AXAL why would anyone believe they find a new one for HOT?
4) Perhaps the lack of communication has to do with their entire “refocused plan” just went down the toilet?
5) If R/S comes is there any financial justification you don’t sell now?
6) How many times do these frauds have to milk you before you see that’s all they were ever doing.
If their moves as blatant as trying to get free to sell completely to Merk, or someone else, it would have leaked in some fashion by now. You know a shelf offering and another RS coming. I just wonder what it will take for some bulls to finally accept what this pos really is.
Sorry all that really some disappointing news. Now looks like RS and new shelf offering is definitely happening just to continue. Idk how some of you guys touting this could be good. They just lost their platform deal and you guys think another company is going to come in and take over where Amgen was suppose to? Sadly this just another viable science being flushed down with another incompetent BOD.
Despite the share price saying otherwise I liked what I saw:
1) if they truly got cost down to 49m a year.....this really extends how long KB has to find a deal before needs more dilution.
2) realized mentioning of shelving AXAL and pulling EMA sent a majorly bearish message to everyone including future partners. Their new approach looks to remedy that mistake.
That being said I still think KB needs a deal at some pt. Not only would it jump pps, but when you come again for money as the NEO/HOT data roll out and dilute shareholders far less. Then ride off into the sunset with HOT/NEO.
Still not much changed but the runway definitely extended
Actually I’m continuing to watch because these are great learning experiences especially when followed so closely while bullish. I’ve already advised what I think people should do. I also already realized those in it will never be convinced otherwise at this point. I’m simply stating the lvl 2 doesn’t show much bid support which implies no true bottom here. Maybe one day I’ll see the signs to jump back in. I still like the science and think HOT/NEO promising but the risk factor is insane and current CEO is not impressive. The BOD we all know what they are.
Just because an opinion may differ from what yours is, doesn’t mean there is malicious intent always behind it
Blue if you been watching lvl 2 there is absolutely no support of any bottom to this stock. When people value in major dilution and RS as higher probabilities, the real bottom is zero.
But as Ted Farnsworth and HMNY recently proved. You can only fool the market so many times before they realize what you really are. Notice the very mute response to the surprise deal before last dilution.
Batemere, even if he destroys ADXS, he will be able to find work. When you are a failing biotech you need someone willing to be the fall guy while they milk everything they can out of shareholders. Dirtbags like this exist for a reason. Also a big reason why some my closest investing friends put management as their number one deciding factor in their investments.
Bat you are correct. The concept of MB pumping and dumping is ridiculous. MBs do have value as only so many hours we can study ea stock and often whether opposing view or agreeing it can lead to you seeing things you may have missed or to help check your own story logic with others. However, nobody investing real money ever lost big becuase of MB chit chat.
That being said Blue has a point to. Everyone here has been preaching for awhile all the reasons to not be in. I know you sold out big around when I did. Our original intent is probably just hoping others don’t keep getting scammed but in the end it’s their money and their choice and it’s not any of our jobs to convince them they are wrong. It’s their lesson to be learned.
Same time, when everyone is making a bunch of statements based on conjecture, than facts, it can not be surprising those in disagreement will not openly disagree. Don’t need intent for that. It’s called debating.
There is no value shorting this. Be a stupid play. Not even sure there is shares to short available. I don’t even think the short volume is very high here anyways. If you think what is going on is the people shorting then you are not actually watching the daily short volume
If the stats were so great then why did they have to pull? If we say because not enough in the study.....then can we say those results are truly repeatable either? Also if stats do great why wouldn’t they get approval when the safety rating was so high? Why was the number so low for so many years? Why did we push it to EMA approval if knew it likely denied first go for this reason. I just lost the logic trail in all this a long time ago. Nothing makes a bit of sense and hasn’t for a long time
You were right Bat. Like me you knew where this was headed. Now you have option to get twice as many shares with same equity if you felt worth it. You can’t completely blow off idea KB can deliver a deal. It’s possible. Regardless how protected, they still landed an amgen deal with the science. I just feel they missed their window and worried they actually falling behind in the science.
That being said...if a deal happens it won’t be a situation you able to just get in and catch the wave. It would be a big spike and pushed by shorts covering. Now iif you treat it as a gamble u can afford to lose completely, I’m sure we all have a magic number worth buying on that hope. If you think deal happening for sure then absolutely you should load up here.
This conference call I suspect be very big. Good or bad. Hopefully is good
Good luck Longs. Hope this conference call provide you all some light at end of the tunnel and your loyalty to ADXS is paid off. Truly hope it is something positive for you all.
If you are long, and truly believe KB lands a deal and NEO/HOT take off, then why do you care at all how this is manipulated in the short term because if you are correct it will adjust overnight anyways. Also stocks that have zero buy interest are the easiest to drive down with minimal shares. Still who cares if .60/1.50/2$, bagholders here need a lot more than that.
I’m amazed how much you all can discuss everyday on this company. Really it’s just a simple reality. You either believe KB lands some type of deal to resolve dilution/RS concerns or you don’t. If he doesn’t, then you know what will end up happening. If he does the stock flies. Debating what is out there that can hint to if KB has any interest at all is more pertinent to this bet then anything else. At one point I believed he could. However, I read the signs different around 1.60 pps and started to believe he actually doesn’t have any interest. I think the market and the lack of pps support shows most believe no deal happens. See a lot of back and forth with same arguments and conjecture but it’s really not that complicated anymore. It’s all come down to this and that is the only reality
If CVI has manipulative control of the stock it will climb back to .85 as I said. If it continues to fall another leg that means CVI has lost control and the buy side has been absolutely extinguished. If it climbs to .85 you will know you will get another opportunity to ride their next leg down range they take it.
Still at this pt the only thing going to move this over 1$ will be a deal. It’s really as isolated as that, fair or not. Good luck all
Best of luck to you all. It’s been fun discussing issues with you all over the last couple of years but it’s now time for me to move on. Nope point rehashing the same negative factors again and again. I also no longer feel this is even a trade you can swing with. I hope you guys land your deal. Never celebrate others losses merely to boost your own ego. I tried to give some advice to help ppl make some moves and save some equity. No other intention as I once was a 80k bullish shareholder.
I may come to peak again next year as they move closer to data from NEO/HOT.
Just one piece of advice: Always ask yourself when you are negative in a stock: “would I invest in this stock if I had nothing in it currently?” If you can’t immediafely answer yes....then just be aware your trading away from the core principles of trading.
The moment they made the switched focus to NEO/HOT, 200m and a useless mfg facility got washed down the drain with AXAL in limbo and debatable if can get any of that back in a deal. Your investments was not to fund NEO/HOT. So clearly they will look to new investors and new funds to support now the work required to get HOT/NEO going. No deal means more dilution which is as simple as it gets. Every week that goes by puts more pressure on that reality regardless which side of the fence you sit.
And we staked him ?????
Clearly the Amgen deal was backloaded and probably payments dependent on positive data as well. The fact the company is struggling this badly, and they haven’t come in to buy it all outright, speaks volume to the contract they have in place. Again probably a poorly done one by our lovely CEO at the time. If any near term cash possible from that deal then they wouldn’t have needed the last dilution. They clearly well protected
Very true. Look at the daily LvL 2. There is no real support. It could flash trigger a .50 stop if a whale unloaded at once.
So I guess the warrants will expire worthless and conjecture that greed would pump this up again wrong. As I said this will move progressively lower one leg at a time. Predicted see .60s this week and will top out at .80-.85. Then back down another leg. This isn’t being insane or an irrational bear. This is how stocks trade in these situations and why I have so accurately predicted movement from 1.55.
Additionally, guys like KB are not to blame. People like him are always brought in after the damage is done. I’m sure he is doing all he can but essentially a glorified undertaker. That’s why they get paid because most CEOs won’t take these positions because they typically end up being a stain on the resume.
I’m sure ppl bringing up your prediction has more to do with how you made it then whether or not ppl are shareholders.
“Wah wah wah,we go up today kiddies.Stock`s way oversold and the science is valued at less then zero. Trading at less then cash,and zero for NEO,HOT,Axal,HER2,Canine,etc. Sorry to tell you this after you guys worked all weekend on ranting negatives,so it would go down again today for you.. So sorry for you,truly. LOL”
Truth is all we have had for quite some time is conjecture and conjecture is the mofo that’s left most here a bag holder.
A simple test I apply at any stock price. If I had no position would this stock actually be something I buy right now. The answer for me was no at 1.55 and I knew once day traders and CVI involved how this would move in share price as well.
Stock price is undervalued compared to cash on hand and the science Blue. If the company wasn’t staring at another dilution and possible RS after that. However, since it does it already is weighing that into the stock price and it’s merely the hope of a deal that keeps it above .50. Nothing delusion about that. As every week goes by with no deal it will continue to back accordingly.
You can believe in KB and you can believe in the science and a future date, but from a trading standpoint you can’t argue the stock price is not exactly where it should be.
No manipulation needed.....just basic math. Not enough money to get to NEO and HOT data. No deal=dilution=current value even too high. The pure hope for a magical deal is only reason this doesn’t already trade at .50
Blue i swear if you ran ADXS they would’ve had a better chance. I know you been a devout bull, but you have always presented very logical and intelligent paths to monetizing the science value over the years. CVI is exactly what you think they are and they are exactly why those 1.50 warrants won’t hit. That being said, what a smart move that would have been when it was sitting af 1.22 or .98 to come in with a big personal buy backed by a buy by the entire board. With the short interest alone could’ve sent it over the 1.50 and locked in 20m more for the company.
Which comes back to the sad fact that I really can’t believe where this has all come down to.
Fair enough. Don’t see it happening but for technical purposes you are correct.
Yet it’s logical to assume a deal is close when they had to do another offering and announce possible shelving of their phase 3 lead candidate. Because I’m sure that echoes strength and I’m sure it’s easy to assume that he did merely to give himself more strength in negotiations. Nope he will do what he did at his last company. He will fail and dilute and then RS. Then the new shareholders can ride NEO and HOT. I’m just getting my equity back understanding since this hit 1.55 what was going to happen. Obviously this won’t apply to some with such massive positions that it’s not worth it. I was a bull and still like the science. I’m just not gonna keep believing same bs pipedreams they been feeding us forever and instead going to just look to capitalize on accepting the path this was headed. Sure you can land a deal.....however, if you knew you only had a 1 in 50 chance of that happening.....if you were not under....would that be a bet you make? With all the risk tied to this? Take away your underwater ownership and idk if many here would be looking at this all the same way.
Shareholders-Amgen....don’t look to them. Shady hedge fund looking to swing trade.....no tutes even allowed to buy this and most had to sell all their position. So rest is bagholders and insiders. Tell me how anything short of a deal allows them to manipulate this environment back over 1.50 to trigger the warrants?
Retail owns too much for them to able to manipulate it themselves to 1.50 to execute the warrants. In the hands of traders who are legging this down as each week passes. KB has to have something to show for those to be exercised. Some have guess he does. Most feel he hasn’t. I think him alluding to the price of the stock at all tells me he knows he can’t push the dial that high.
Next swing trade coming up when this dips into the .60s. Should be able to see .80-.85 again.
No doubt and honestly I feel most the Amgen payments are far off in the process and Amgen pretty protected and that is why they have no desire for a BO even at these levels until results actually prove positive
Plus right back to essentially Stage 1 status with a useless mfg facility. So depressing.....what’s sad is under a different BOD and leadership this company and science could have went in so many better directions. Additionally all the wasted time has one asking are they now behind their competition as well? Such a shame when they were pioneers in the space.
Again as for the movements get use to it. Unexplained climbs and falls. This is the world of penny stocks and full blown trade manipulation. Which also means about the only thing that will get this stock back over a dollar will be a deal. Until then it will be a decreasing range trade until dilution announced
I think more likely KB knows he can’t find a deal and is delaying that announcement in hopes stock can climb to 1.50. I suspect when the warrants expire is when he will break the bad news. I also do not see them hitting 1.50 to be triggered.
Level 2 shows no real support or bottom for ADXS. This tells me we are about to head for the next level of trading. Will re-enter somewhere in lows .70s and move them at .85 this time. I was given a really hard time when I laid this out at 1.55 all the way to now. Yet been right and making back some real equity in the process. Just be careful all about accumulating now, we will go another leg lower. I expect in late November they will be requesting authorization to issue more shares. That announcement will push this stock to .50 cents a share and could be followed on after by a RS to stay listed.
If you riding this out you the praying for KB to land a real deal.
And if he had a deal in the near term he wouldn’t even need to comment on SP at all. Since he knows it will break with any deal that resolves dilution concerns.
I thought old warrants meant this suppose to go up? More like allow them to expire. It sad when I can predict the stock movements because it means the stock is completely in traders hands right now. No real money will come in with threat of dilution over their head. Longs are stuck and probably don’t want to add much to their position as well.
Truth is KB has no deal. That is exactly why he did the offering and why all the Tutes left. Even if you believe in the science you are only a dilution and RS away from absolutely being destroyed. There are zero indicators here that even remotely suggests a possible BO. ADXS now in jeopardy of being late in a science they led the way once. Petit quit buying probably because sees dilution as well.
Right now I say you are definitely on the low % side if betting for the miracle deal that resolves dilution issues. Such an event definitely could shoot this way up. However, it is just that at this pt, a big all in bet on double zero on Roulette table. I advised sell at 1.55 and 1.20 and .98. I still think selling and range trading is still the play (obviously doesn’t apply to ea individual, especially those with monster negative positions). This will go another leg lower by the traders. Next level .70-.85.
I’m still hoping for that deal. However, for now it’s tight range trading for me and waiting to get back in once I know they have enough money to get to HOT and NEO data and dependent now how far competitors are by then as well. Good luck all. Just trying to explain the real reasons behind the moves. It’s not algos, it’s not all these speculative theories, it’s low volume trading controlled by traders who make their money in distressed companies who fall into penny land. With absolutely WAY too much risk for new money to come in for a long position