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JLS
for the record - I don't listen to anything from Bulkowski...
SPX and Flags & Pennants
re; chiming-in on the current discussion regarding channel pattern and break-out
here is a chart of Flags and Pennants. The one on the upper right is a Bear Flag. I think the bear flag most resembles the pattern currently displayed by SPX. Except that this example shows 3 tags to the top line and then breaks-out the lower line on the 4th tag.
In my opinion SPX is displaying a bear flag (a continuation pattern) and that the most likely direction is to the Downside. That opinion is based on market mood and this bear flag. The thing im Not clear on; is how many times price will tag the channel lines before we break-out. Also; I think there is always a 1% chance the pattern could fake everyone out and break to the top-side especially when we’re All sure of direction.
My bet is to the downside unless the pattern is negated
northam; my post is not regarding SPX cycles but it is regards to SPX and supports the current discussion.
_________________________________________________________________
JLS
your chart looks good and i agree that most-likely (based on market mood) that the channel pattern will break to the downside... However; do you see anything in your T/A that would take price to touch the upper line before breaking to downside..?
'northam43'
just want ya to know you're doing a great job...
I like your system, It is Consistent. And that is what I really look for from the message boards. Those that are reliable as much as possible and Consistent. And the best part of your board is that there is No drama. Thanks, keep up the good work.
Re; northam Comments: SPX Daily
let me see if I understand your comments….
You don't expect this Daily Phase 2 to last more than a day or two, unless the Weekly crosses above the LTL.
You expect price to go back into Daily Phase 1 which could lead to a New Low in the Weekly Phase 1.
S&P at support, 1250
According to yahoo news if price doesn’t hold support at 1250 then we’ll have a “very fast drop down to 1,120- 1,150”
re; The last 4 cycle Phase 2 targets have not been reached.
Hi northam
I see that the Phase 2 targets have not been reached...
but i'm curious regarding the average duration of trading days
did we at least get the average 9.73 trading days or more...?
Whats Up at SPX Daily Cycles...?
Kinda quiet on this board -
shame on you.... northam
Thanks northam
...
re; Cycles Alert clarify
Northam, would you clarify current location of the weekly price. Is it above UTL - At UTL or below UTL...
because - if we are above UTL, then the bullish Weekly Phase II continues Up.... Yes?
XLB
'POKERSAM' re; When the dollar is dropped as the world researve
I fear the dollars buying power is not gonna be worth much in the future (time frame unknown).... That would also include 401k
S&P Charts
The first chart SPY from Jack Chan shows price meeting resistance and confirms we’re not going up any time soon.
The second chart - SPX 40-day/hourly Richard Lehman – shows price moving to the lower purple trend line – the chart is in alignment with northams downside Phase I projection of 1279
SPY
SPX 40-day/hourly
Market Capitulation?
I'm not sure if the current market action is due to fuel prices, fear selling, a trend change... or if its even considered capitulation.... You guys have any thoughts?
- northam43
keep up the good work -
and don't let it go to your head but you're still king of the S&P cycles...
SPX Charts
I'm posting these charts in support / align with SPX Cycles change in phase....
This is how i see it pending today's closing
Close Above 1260
- First chart is the SPX 40-day/hourly - Price is at the lower trend line and the Stoch is oversold... It means we'll bounce here or break thru the lower line... A bounce here would be in alignment with northams opening above 1260 on Monday
Close Below 1260
- the second chart is SPX One-year/daily - Price is at the top trend line - the Stoch is at the top and beginning to descend - A break on the hourly trend line and open below SPX 1260 would support northams "looking ahead" call. The chart would be in alignment with the projected Weekly Phase I to 1158.12.
Channel charts from Richard Lehman
SPX 40-day/hourly
SPX One-year/daily
re: northam43
Good job … looks like 1260 is a “pivot point” = meaning a close above/below 1260 determines whether the markets bounce or it becomes the awaited correction
re; post #41 'I HAVE NO TOLERANCE!'
.... FYI
re; looks like a SPX bounce
so; if we close SPX without a new Phase1 confirmation then technically we are still in the current PhaseII -
the upside target 1300 is still in force
Do You Agree?
re; Cycles Alert:
Good Job northam43
re; SPX Daily Phase II continues
its my assumption that PhaseII will continue to S&P 1313... that level was set in August 2008
Re; SPX Cycles Alert:
the bull will not go down
Thanks northam
1300 - 1173 = 127 - 62.05 = 64.95
Ok, I still don't get how you got to 1300 from here, but it doesn't matter - you don't have to explain further.
What I know; - we’ve gained 62points in seven days and since phase 2 last longer than phase1 = price should continue to the Upside - at least for the next few days
re; SPX 1300 is possible
i'm just trying follow along northam
(some day you'll have to do a conference call)
i understand the;
- daily phaseII will exceed the average 9 trading days
- possibly exceed cycle highs as well
This is where I got lost;
- SPX 1300 is possible
my question is; how did you come up with the SPX 1300 projection?
how does that ty into the daily phaseii or weekly phase1?
Madness of A lost Society
what a dumb down morally bankrupt, broken down society looks like
RE; completion of B
I Like that chart - S&P Analyst have an end of year target 1275
RE; The target for this Phase II is 1234.56
You're doing a good Job with your system - Absolutely.
Regarding your Upside target. (its just my assumption) but It appears to me that price overshoots your initial upside target. There is Nothing wrong with that so long as You get the meat of the climb (right?). If my assumption is true; then is there a way for You to "investigate' your system to see if there is a pattern when topping?
... You have a following
.... even if you're mis-quoted
re; Homeland Security's
are you saying we should use profiling?
and Not search the old white lady in her church dress or the 100% redneck American?
CSCO After Hours: down 3.09 (12.62%)
QE2 and the Dollar
I have a question for You finance people.
(my economic math is not the greatest)
If QE2 pushes interest rates down, produces bubbles & inflation plus devalue the dollar.
And at the end of this fed push... wouldn't my consumer buying power be in the crapper?
RE; Fed Injection
You're asking the wrong guy. I don't know the fundamental reason for this this Rally. I suspect its the election and a technical Rally. Its ok with me If the Fed pump trumps, so long as we have Rationale for a Rally. Technical analysis is not enough, there has to be Fundamentals to support.
re; clues
thats correct, I'm looking for underlying 'indicators' to support a move above 1240 S&P.
Your Bull run to 1600 S&P can't be sustainable in a Jobless recovery and excessive foreclosures...
RE; the-ship-is-leaving-the-dock
what does it mean? S&P going up or going down?
I like That Call Poker
>>least 45-55 points pull back...
That gives me some numbers to work with
Northams SPX Cycles
has a good chance a yielding gains
i've been tracking his progress,
he's a little on the grouchy side
but his system appears consistant (for my time frame)
Depending on what time frames we're talking
I would bet SPX Cycles makes Target: 1184
before Ewave makes target 950
Now that i've said that, market will probably crash
The boys are the Market manipulators
thats what I meant....
Not political affiliation