AVIR is down 10%
looked to me like it went up on news, and then got hit by some trade
groups. (short) imo.
anyway, still like their float, cash position, and the science
looks good to me. not as good in the science as most of you.
did add some at 22.00
took from yh.
JP Morgan Report on Atea ? Released 11:17 AM - 06.30.2021Atea(Overweight)$24.41 (29 Jun 2021)While being somewhat of a thin dataset in the press release, we believe the top-line results of oral anti-viral AT-527 in hospitalized patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 clearly support the candidate's activity, with potentially differentiated impact on viral kinetics. Specifically, we call out the pbo-adjusted viral load reduction of -0.7 log10 copies/mL by Day 2, which (with caveats of cross trials comparison) looks comparatively more rapid than the activity of the currently authorized neutralizing antibodies and the recently reported phase 2a results with MRK's molnupiravir. Further, we note the seemingly favorable viral clearance rates given the higher bar for viral negativity by RT-PCR; see Table 1.Importantly, we view these data as fundamentally de-risking for the asset and clinical meaningful activity in the phase 3 out-patient MORNINGSKY study currently underway. With top-line results trending toward the top end of our previewed base-case scenario, we would anticipate AVIR's valuation in the $35- 40 range over the mid-term on upgraded #$%$ assumption, and view the current share weakness as misplaced. Bigger picture, with the phase 2 virology data making the case for differentiated efficacy ahead of a phase 3 trial, and in view of what we believe is a durable $3-4B TAM in the US alone, we continue to see current AVIR levels as under-reflecting the risk-adjusted commercial potential of lead candidate AT-527.* Early and compelling antiviral activity observed with AT-527, with strong viral clearance rates through to Day 14. Of note, AT-527 showed rapid reduction in viral load levels in hospitalized, high-risk patients (n=62),achieving 0.7 log (~80%) pbo-adjusted mean reduction from baseline at Day 2 of treatment, with sustained difference maintained through Day 8 (detailed trend over time yet to be disclosed). Importantly, we note encouraging viral clearance in patients, with 33% and 47% of patients achieving viral clearance by Day 10 and Day 14, respectively (vs 0% and 22% in pbo; threshold for viral clearance being 500 copies/mL) .* Favorable safety profile supportive of outpatient administration. AT-527 demonstrated a well-tolerated safety profile with patients exhibiting no drug- related serious adverse events. Adverse events were determined unrelated to study drug, and mainly mild / moderate in severity.* Initial phase 2 outpatient data (MOONSONG) on tap for 3Q, while enrollment continues in the phase 3 MORNINGSKY study. Looking toward the post-exposure prophylaxis program, initial data from the ongoing phase 2 outpatient study (MOONSONG) is anticipated in 3Q21, where the company also intends to explore lower dose levels that may be beneficial in the specific setting. On the phase 3 MORNINGSKY trial, notwithstanding the challenging setup given the evolving nature of the virus, we note steady recruitment in the trial, with sites coming up across Europe, Japan and South America.* Reiterate Overweight.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
