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I was only offering up that the volume - for many of us at this level - means nothing. If it started crossing 3 mil each day, I would begin to wonder. Cross 5 or even higher, and I start looking for reasons.
The price goes down. Done it for years. Then it goes up. Done it for years.
There does not appear to be anywhere NEAR the volume needed to indicate a problem. We are experiencing some leakage. Happens all the time.
When 3 out of 4 posts are whines and cuts at management, you can't really expect new buyers to take up the slack. Meanwhile, those who have seen this movie a few dozen times wait for our regular hold areas and accumulate again. Then the ship gets uprighted, and the profit taking ensues. Then those that didn't buy low and sell shares high scream at the traders who did.
It's really more of the same old same old. New faces here just haven't adjusted to it yet.
As stated many times before - the whiners create the exact atmosphere they whine about. Maybe questioning their motives would be prudent, if other people's motives matter....
Me - I am a buyer today. And probably tomorrow if we insist on seeing $.32 again. Nice to have some liquidity in here again.
At the same time, I do understand the frustration of this downward movement. It took me a couple of years to really get used to it so that it doesn't bother me any more.
Business as usual.
I didn't expect you to understand or be interested in my post. It goes contrary to your beliefs. I'm okay with you having thoughts different than mine.
It's wut makes the world go round.....
Good luck with your beliefs.
Again I offer up that the volume here of nearly 1.5 million was commonplace from 2002-2006, and then tailed off. Take a look at history. The price fluctuated as it does now, with very similar volume daily.
For some of us, this volume is normal, not the 300-500k a day stuff.
As long as DOMS continues to pressure the ASK, we go down. Been that way for 6 years. PERT used to help, but they have taken a back seat.
And as I write this - DOMS moves up to $.41 . And jumps in on the BID. HDSN is a good sign on the BID also.
Keep your eye on DOMS.
It wouldn't be a stretch to say that 4 concessions wouldn't include blocks 5 and 6, due to their ongoing rights dispute.
The recent drive-bys were interesting, if you look into the background of it.
I think we are done now. Just a hunch.
Edit - and always remember to pay attention to DOMS and ARCA.
So, if I am reading your post correctly, you are willing to sell the company based on the results of the 5 wells drilled?
Wow. And here I was under the impression there are dozens of potential areas where oil development could take place, and that's just in blocks 2-4 of the JDZ. Sounds like you don't want anything to do with those potential fruit-bearing trees, huh? And taking the other blocks in the JDZ and just tossing them out the window with the unexplored areas of blocks 2-4 makes perfect sense based on your already defined ability to predict from 5 wells. Oh yeah - and those EEZ blocks we are supposed to be getting as part of our reward for work done years ago - we can just toss all that out the window too, because those five holes drilled in blocks 2-4 will reveal everything we need to know about the EEZ too.
And you are calling me a fool? LOL!!!!!!!
I suppose when you are looking to buy a house you just drive by it and say yes to the purchase without ever going inside or learning anything about it. Ever kick tires on a car? I didn't think so.
Or is it that you genuinely feel the stock will take off to 100% of the value of the ESTIMATED reserves. Good luck with that one too. But hey, it isn't like it would be the first time this board decided to take an impossible position and make it the expected result.
Best I can tell, we aren't friends either....... which is probably a good thing for both of us.
Have a great evening.
You the man Rambus.......
Thanks much for that.
$.32? Who said anything about $.32 today?
Shhhh. Don't let the secret out.
You are correct Kobi - I used the wrong term.
Thanks for putting the right answer out there.
Not sure why my reply to this post is the same post number as another and not showing up when reading , so I will repost my response.
The cost of drilling doesn't factor in for us until production takes place. The carries negotiated in the agreements (JOAs - Joint Operational Agreements I believe) were setup so we don't pay any cash costs unless it goes to production. We bartered that in exchange for giving some of the block %s to the operator. So dry holes don't affect our cash, more holes don't affect our cash, but production will cost us some monies in the form of profits going to the operator to repay costs.
Drilling does not figure into our immediate costs/cash concerns.
Drill away......... and hurry about it.
Edit - the grade of crude is expected to be some of the lightest sweet out there - very cheap to process.
The cost of drilling doesn't factor in for us until production takes place. The carries negotiated in the agreements (JOAs - Joint Operational Agreements I believe) were setup so we don't pay any cash costs unless it goes to production. We bartered that in exchange for giving some of the block %s to the operator. So dry holes don't affect our cash, more holes don't affect our cash, but production will cost us some monies in the form of profits going to the operator to repay costs.
Drilling does not figure into our immediate costs/cash concerns.
Drill away......... and hurry about it.
Edit - the grade of crude is expected to be some of the lightest sweet out there - very cheap to process.
I think I spilled my guts on ERHE a few posts back from here.
Dry holes - I doubt it, considering none of the reports state dry holes. But we are only guessing as to what was found and in what quantity. Regardless, the minions here will claim it is all a conspiracy and build cases for the results to have been good and/or bad.
Still a lot of holes to drill though. At this price, not much downside, with plenty of opportunities for upside, even if only temporary jumps up.
Okay Robj - I'll give you my view - straight.
I think the hard part of sticking out ERHE has been done. The rights we have in the JDZ and the EEZ are no longer challenged, the potential for issues stemming from our inception of those rights appears to be behind us, the JDZ is now actively moving forward with drilling, and the EEZ blocks appear on the horizon. The roughest part is over, and we survived. It took forever, but it got done. A better understanding of African time has been learned.
We have solid partners in the region, not some fly-by-night companies that could double over in a moment. Would Sinopec really work with us if we weren't a real company? They are hungry for oil and gas, which is good. That increases the chances of having value should the fields be found mostly gas instead of oil.
But we have issues going forward for sure. We don't have a lot of cash ($20 mil or so) and we only burn it right now. The company has indicated - quite vaguely I will add - that a move to the AIM is being considered, with some kind of IPO apparently planned too. But it takes a ton of reading between the lines to sort it out. Communication is not te long suit of ERHE management (perhaps the understatement of the year).
I think there are basically 2 likely scenarios here:
The buyout - It can happen any time from here to forever, and could include anything from a block in the JDZ to everything we have rights for, but there simply isn't a way for us to value our assets, since they are all really intangible at this point. So it would seem more unlikely to get companies to agree upon a full sale of ERHE without really being able to value it. That doesn't mean it wouldn't or couldn't happen, just that I view it as unlikely at this time.
Long term commitment - Oil and gas takes a long time to bring to production. Define a long time, and then calculate in African time and we have a really really unknown timeline, with 2012 being the first possible scenario. This seems the more logical and likely path at this time, but also figures to be painful, with our shareprice likely to stay in the under $1.50 range until production is upon us, going up and down in swings that will be fun to trade but frustrating for the long holders. Now that view differs with most others who think that once it is said we have X amount of oil/gas that the stock will magically move to value 100% of that oil/gas into our price, but I am not that naive and think the market will wait for it (oil/gas) to be imminent before valueing it more completely.
So, to answer your question.....
If you can wait out an investment, this one should be very good for where you have entered. Downside risks are almost all gone, with the major downsides left being not enough oil/gas found to warrant production, or us running out of cash and forced to do things detrimental to the company. The first one I can't say anything to, but the second I don't think will happen because the single greatest shareholder has huge ties to Nigeria, and I think he can find ways to protect his money. And I believe the talk of a new exchange will do just that, as well as deals created from the rights in the EEZ where we will gather cash just like we did in the JDZ. You seem to understand patience (BNVI and GNVC), and any long term intended purchases of this stock better include a lot of patience (and the ability to live with a very quiet management style - the more they talk, the more trouble they create for themselves). Swing it when you can - create a base holding of shares and work an amount outside the base with the swings. Take advantage of the day-to-day price changes. That is what most do I am sure, even though they won't admit to it because of the constant hatred spewed toward traders on the board.
Or, hold your shares and exit with a profit. I suspect you will be able to hit your $.60s price 2-3 months out, so just sit tight and wait for that time. We have an interesting spring season setting up here. I really don't see a zero price as a realistic possibility here. I just don't. That fear is gone. We will gain in value, just can't be sure when.
I posted a reply on the ERHE board because it is likely to cause some discussions, and I didn't want to create too much activity here.
People find all the discussions arbout ERHE, whichever board they are on.
More sellers than buyers. Usually happens when the price goes down. Strange, ain't it?
No trainwreck here. And, as you know, I can say that from personal experience!!
Let's see: If I told you I knew of a stock with really great potential but its major shareholder is a Nigerian with strong ties to the Nigerian government, what would you say - when you stopped laughing? My next line would be that it has incredible rights to what some people believe are very intriguing oil fields in deep water off-shore Africa, what would say - when you stopped laughing? I could go on, but you already know the story here.
Simply put - we are still looked upon as a playground, not as an equity with a solid future. This is a swing-trader's paradise, and a long's nightmare. We've had dot-connectors and prophets tell us good and bad, and their records read like the Detroit Lions of 2008 (sorry to those that are fans of the Lions).
I'm here for the love on the board. We are like a family here. LOL. Just read along!!!
Good to hear from ya. I see your posts in some of the old places still, including the REAL trainwreck!
I never said it wasn't a fact that a company may have an interest in ERHE.
I can't for the life of me figure out how we could value our company to anyone, or anyone could value our company to us, (which by the way would be the start of most negotiations when a buyout is a topic) based on the apparent simple facts that we HAVE NO CLUE WHAT OUR EEZ BLOCKS ARE OR WHAT IS DOWN THERE IN THE JDZ.
My gosh - we have drilled 5 holes in the earth. If someone offers us $1 per share, what would we use to say they are not paying enough? Better yet, what - other than potential (and I dare ANYONE to quantify that) - could they possibly use to value us at $1 per share?
$2 per share?
$3?
$5?
$10?
$45?
Golly gee - I hope we get bought for $35 per share right after lunch. I think $35.50 would be unfair to the buyer.
Unless the deal was for $.45 .
I'm still shocked to think we could possibly cut a deal when we have hundreds and hundreds of square miles of acreage - that hasn't even been drilled or considered yet in the JDZ.
How many wells do we have drilled in our EEZ blocks? Oh wait!!!!!!!!!!! WE DON'T KNOW WHICH BLOCKS WE HAVE!!!!!!!!!!!!
I guess that would make coming to a fair price for them easier! Sounds like a dream for lawyers!!
Imminent buyout tomorrow. It's gotta be. Yup. It all makes sense.
Now Robjer, you have to have patience here. There probably is another buying opportunity yet to come!!!
Historically, $.32 has been a favorite resting place for accumulation!!!
Actually, this action has the distinct flavor of...... dilution. I hate that particular taste, which is why I remember it so well. We haven't seen any here in a while. I'm hoping to be wrong, but with the strong possibility of options happening for our fearless leaders, this would be about the area I would expect it to happen.
Drip. Drip. Drip.
Time to get some cash ready. Freshly funded IRAs are ready to go.
Been doin some prelim stuff on BNVI and noticed they are in a listing pickle come mid March. How are they expecting to remain listed? Like what I read, but they do seem to be a ways off from takeoff, unless they take on a partner of some kind - which appears possible.
GNVC could pop most any moment from what I am gathering.
Being a trader of this equity wouldn't make you a bad person or unworthy of posting on this board. In fact, any average or better than average trader has probably raked in tons of money here, and if they haven't, maybe they ought to consider not trading any more!!! Feel free to laugh at that particular person, as it really doesn't get much easier than this stock. Sometimes the wait may be a little longer, but geez......
The traders add liquidity to a market, not just a little more volatility. After all - it is a legal way to make or lose money in the stock market.
Good luck to all those playing this equity - long-term, short-term, or even shorting. We've all had chances to make a bunch here. Yes, I do believe that the ultimate win will be for those that stay long, but I certainly don't look down on anyone choosing to play the market in a different method than I do. I really find it amazing that so many do.
bmu - this wasn't addressed specifically to you
Just my opinion.
I think the share price is about to make a move. Just not sure which way, though up appears to be LVL II indicator. I'm adding up $.40 if it goes down.
Safe travels.....
It was a tongue-in-cheek comment, in my opinion. I would be very surprised if YankeeMike was offended by the comment.
The opinion above is a conclusion drawn from reading the board characters on a daily basis.
Thanks spp for sharing the information with us. Your contributions are appreciated by many here.
Unfortunately Pete, facts don't get consided much by many of the whiners.
There are always 3 things to blame here:
1. Management's lack of PRs (and then the whining it wasn't worded the way they wanted if we do get one)
2. Traders
3. M&Ms (mostly the green ones)
Ah well. Keeps the price down for the buyers!!!
And the traders.
Well, it wasn't me that did the buying. Probably some people looking in on our conversation earlier and liking your picking history!!
It also picked up some bid support according to LVL II. Looks like another winner for ya... you travelin man you.
Congrats to the buyers at $.42 and below. Looks like good choices right now. Some of us are a bit jealous that our orders didn't fill.
Can the whiners give us another opportunity?!!!
ARCA is gone. Seller appears done.
I will try to look at BNVI this weekend. Just haven't had much free time lately and don't know if this weekend will be different. But GNVC has been a wonderful choice for you - and congrats on that!
My profits are nice with ERHC now, and my concerns are not very high at this point. All the things (or similar type) you pointed out as concerns have been there a long time, and likely will remain until the entire situation is resolved. I personally have come to grips with the risk there, and believe the concerns are more emotional than realistic, based on where the company has gone the past few years. I think you see the potential, but you see the concerns too, just not having come to a point of accepting that they don't really go away. The AIM is actually a good point rather than bad, the being Nigerian is what it is (and in some ways applies here), the possible looting of assets is unlikely considering the oversight with ERHE, so on. But I see your points. That's why it isn't for everyone.
I am going to start swinging shares there again because it is so easy to do with that one, provided the volume cooperates. As for IRAs: mine don't contain any ERHE except for Roths I created (wife and me) a few years back that I contribute to annually, and they are almost exclusively ERHE. So I am already set in that respect. And for other plays - there are thousands. I just haven't taken the time to commit the DD to workin them! With the kid's life being priority one right now, that probably won't change until next fall. He's my only, and he is the best kid in the world! My life is devoted to him right now.
Continued good wishes and success with GNVC.
YOWZER Robj!!!!!!!!!
A REAL friend would have told me about GNVC 3 months ago!!!!! What a HUGE day you are having.......
Looking at LVL II it would appear that someone is dumping a bunch at $.42 that are getting scarfed up. Looks like the market doing its thing. Someone is selling and someone is buying.
Personally, I think a good cleansing of this stock may be in order again. Capitulation - that means volume selling - is the best way. Again, capitulation isn't always a bad thing.
No indication fundamentals have changed. Unless you're a friend of a hippie poster!
Appears a bounce is coming now. Whining stopped - traders are buying. Whining prolly will resume soon!!
ARCA does seem to want to stand in the way, which usually means someone is selling a larger lot (in my experience) as it is not boxed.
JMO.
And then another deadline will pass and another fall will happen and another deadline will be presented, and another deadline will pass and another fall will happen and another deadline will be presented, and....... Pretty sure you get my drift.
Kinda glad I am cash strong at this particular time. It's getting real tempting to pick up some more here and make a few extra bucks. The whining about traders actually works against the whiners, so maybe the whiners are actually the traders....??
Ah well - I'd just end up puttin them in my locked drawer anyway. Is that a bad thing I should whine about?
I enjoy the board. It's great comic relief!! Everyone should laugh at least once a day.
Capitulation isn't always a bad thing.
Again, we continue to be our own worst enemies. But the highly vaunted buyout tomorrow should save us......
Wow........
Well said today by you. Spot on posts today. Thanks for your contributions.
I fear for some that they are still waiting for the buyout to come before the drill bit hits...........
I agree Pete. I think that some of us have come to the same basic conclusion here, as I posted earlier http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45698968 after reading other similar posts, and now see in the past couple of posts from others.
It appears that whatever is happening will trickle to us, not be about us, as common shareholders of ERHE.
I'm liking what I am reading and think that setting up an entity for the marginal fields development is least likely to have a negative influence on ERHE (our common stock) if the company raises capital for the new entity outside of the ERHE common or preferred stock, which I think would be the case. I wouldn't be surprised to see us (ERHE common) get some form of options, probably at a small discount, for the new entity as a way of being paid for the DD done by the company on our dime. With the new entity being opened to investors world wide on the AIM, I would expect the 'friends' network so well known and common in Nigeria as being a main source of that funding. And in reality, ERHC common wouldn't need to be moved to AIM, but I don't preclude that as a possibility. After all, I don't see anywhere in the press release that is says specifically that a move of ERHE common is the reason for a listing on the AIM. I think that was an assumption by the board, and maybe a bit premature. It's really hard to say.
Thanks for the reply - good to hear from ya.
I will get those two stocks - BNVI and GNVC - on my list as things to check out. Thanks for that information. You know I am patient - I'm still with ERHE. 3 years is nothing!!
It sounds like you did real well in getting things accomplished just before the market and economy really tanked, and congrats to you for that! We came into a bunch of bucks in March 08 and put it - in the market, mostly mutuals we didn't want to worry about following!! Oh brother...... it's rebounding, but man did we get clobbered, like most everyone else.
Enjoy the traveling - you've earned it. At 52, I can only hope to be in your position some day. Kid starts college next fall - nest will be empty. Continued good health and success to you and yours, and stay in touch. You obviously know where to find me when you want!!
And thanks to you tamtam for allowing us to converse here.
Hey Robj
Good to hear from you again. In response to your messages last week, I really haven't been that active in the market the past few years, mostly just in ERHE. I lost touch with most we hung with and chatted with, and dropped interest in most of those stocks too. My situation here at home has been hectic with work the past couple of years, thus the focus elsewhere from the market.
I pretty much stopped trading ERHE because the volume got low and didn't want to impact the price so much, but I have moved shares around in various accounts to get things into IRAs for what I see as a long term plan with it. I had traded my cost to below zero at one time and didn't increase ownership, but have recently ramped up the buying and have way too many shares at about $.20 cost per share. I am still a believer in the company and don't see that changing near term.
I do hope you are staying active in the market - buying and selling - and irritating people as well as you can!! ERHE board doesn't like your style - I just laugh. If you can't scream company love over there, no sense in posting. They aren't interested in real discussions, just cheerleaders and more pom poms.
If tamtam doesn't want this post here, I ask that he wait to delete it until you and I can find a common place to touch base once in a while. I understand that this board isn't intended for chatter about open topics and don't mean to irritate or aggravate anyone by posting here. If someone knows a more open forum for discussion, I am all ears!
Great find Elsie.
It sounds to me like an entirely different entity being formed, like something to finance their shallow water exploration.
So let's explore a little bit some of the possibilities of his statement.
To create an asset pool (taken literally to mean some of ERHE's assets grouped together) would be done how? Would we:
1. Group blocks 2-4 as an entity
2. Group the unbid upon JDZ blocks as an entity
3. Break apart blocks 2-4 as separate entities (already done I think for tax purposes)
4. Create a group of EEZ based assets
5. Be ready to buy an onshore or shallow water development as a grouping
6.
7.
8.
If we are to receive no dilution to current ERHE common shareholders, well that certainly limits how the IPO would be paid for, doesn't it? Looks to be preferred, or a completely separate company, or...........???
Hmmm.
I sure don't want to take on debt right now. Without knowing the purpose of an IPO, it is difficult to guess how it gets funded, but if common shareholders are to be left out, I am thinking that it would be more about the shallow water business opportunity seen by management.
Perhaps this isn't about an IPO, but just about an opportunity to get at a bigger base of investors, like Nigerians, as mentioned earlier by others. That explanation makes more sense to me than IPO at this time.
My opinion anyway.