GMP certification is ABSOLUTELY an important issue. Its one of the reasons I invested in Canopy...the own Bedrocan Canada:

"Bedrocan’s production facilities in Canada and the Czech Republic are expected to become fully compliant next year."

http://weedwire.ca/bedrocan-becomes-worlds-first-gmp-approved-medicinal-cannabis-producer/

Furthermore the relationship with Bedrocan is one reason why Canopy has been accepted in Germany while some others have not. Germany definitely takes quality medication seriously.

Having said that it is my experience that Tweed is very recognizable in marijuana circles I run in. In my opinion it started with the association to DNA Genetics, was continued via pretty good social media and complimented via Snoop Dog.

Our impressions on branding these days are completely formulated by the circles you run in.

Here is my updated calculations with your latest Mettrum number. Thanks!

CANOPY AVERAGE ORDERS PER DAY = 1066

* Tweed
(01/05/17) #189040 to (03/14/17) #219890
68 days
453 orders per day

* Bedrocan
(02/20/17) #66100 to (01/24/17) #59010
27 days
262 orders per day

* Mettrum
(09/23/16) #142672 to (3/14/17) #203056
172 days
351 orders per day

Sales projections for Q4:

1066 orders per day x $180 per order x 90 days = $17.2 million in sales.

The dollar figure per order came from dividing the known sales last q by the approximately known orders in that q.

I think this is conservative because it does not take into account the higher $ per gram this q will have from all the $12 high THC sales, nor does it include exports to Germany or Australia and it does not include sales from Mettrum Originals Hemp line.

Excellent as that's exactly what I have been waiting for. Here is what I have previously and it looks like they match up with yours sequentially.

MT Order # 129976 on 08/22/16
MT Order # 141752 on 09/22/16
MT Order # 142672 on 09/23/16

I don't recall that from the cc. Not suggesting you are wrong but I listened and took notes so either I missed that or understood it differently from you...either way I have no notes on it so I will need to go back over he transcript.

Here are the numbers I have from last calculation I did. Not updated it lately. Note the Mettrum numbers are somewhat after recall so it will be interesting to see if it's changed when I get time to update it. Note MT has product on the shelves.
-----------------------------------------
Here is what I have assuming my math is correct. The Mettrum order numbers are from 2016 as that's the only order numbers I have been able to confirm via a patient on another board I post on...currently trying to get 2017 order number.

* Tweed (01/05/17) #189040 to Tweed (02/22/17) #209360 = 48 days = 423 orders per day
* Bedrocan (02/20/17) #66100 to Bedrocan (01/24/17) #59010 = 27 days = 262 orders per day
* Mettrum pre Canopy (08/22/16) #129976 to Mettrum pre Canopy (10/20/16) #153664 = 59 days = 401 orders per day

If this holds true then Canopy is averaging 1086 orders per day.
------------------------------------------
Some other logic I have used to project 4th q sales:

If we know the sales last quarter (which we do) and we know the approximate order numbers for that quarter then doesn't it make sense in an approximate sort of way that we can identify a $ figure per order? And thus predict roughly what sales will be next quarter based on the orders we know by the end of March 2017? Excluding say Germany or Australia sales.

1) Tweed orders from September 27, 2016 to January 5, 2017 were 40,541 orders.
2) Bedrocan orders for October 2, 2016 to December 12, 2016 were 13,560 orders.
3) Canopy sales for September October 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017 were $9,752,000.

Therefore $180.25 per order on average. This would not account for Mettrums sales yet though because they were not in the last financials of Canopy and we don't know where they ended up yet.
-------------------------------------------
If my logic holds out to be true & if Mettrum order numbers per day don't drop (I think it's possible they don't drop to much but most likely they don't increase) the by my monkey math I get about 18 million in sales for Q4.

Of course you could look at it the other way. 50+ mill in inventory at Dec 31 and the shelves are pretty much always bare. Add to that the Australian government's mandate a few weeks ago that they fully stock the shelves in the next 9 weeks and throw in a little Germany sales. You will see a huge quarter...if for no other proof than the order tracking is showing this as well.

Eaactly why I don't run for the exit like I am supposed to do. I still own my shares as well and making great returns.

"I yell fire in a crowded theatre and everyone starts to leave - doesn't mean they all agreed on that course of action before proceeding"

Actually yes it does mean they all agreed. Not only is it an implied assumption for everyone in that scenario but likely every single one of them since grade one have been practicing for that exact scenario. The reality is that manipulation does exist or at the very least an attempt at it in most walks of life but yes I agree with you it should not come as a surprise.

As it relates to the mj sector it is actually likely to be very easy because of the very herd mentality you mention. If I know what the implied actions of the herd would be (yell fire they all run to the exit) then I can manipulate whatever favourable outcome I wish should I have the desire & in the case of stocks the money to do so.

As for how you can tell it's being done for sure...you can't. But what you can do if you are always watching the action consistently every day over time is tell when a pattern changes by particular players and what that pattern is likely attempting to do. Combine this with other sources of information and you get a better than likely thesis. An interesting way of looking at it would be "thin slicing"...a term coined by Malcolm Gladwell in his book "Blink".

Not to mention there are real people in real "marketing" jobs employed by companies to spin...nobody spins for spins sake - the goal is to convince the heard to go in the direction you want them to so you can manipulate for personal gain. You know this to be true right down to watching an ad for a product and then you buy it (hopefully a canopy product)...so why would it be any different in the stock market? It wouldn't be.

Where there is smoke there is always at least some fire.

We do have capacity sitting waiting for HC now. Bruce stated this. The bottleneck is and has been HC. But yes I agree IF they are not currently working this through around the clock via Goldman or onsite crews then they should be. Nothing new here though...Bruce telegraphs just before it's done...just the way he should to keep his competition in the dark.

Someone else would know better than I possibly but I think the supply is a problem across all LPs so switching LPs may not really be an option.

As for cost of product it's about to get more expensive across the system as that's what supply and demand does...low supply higher prices. This will happen until regulated prices come into play with the passing of legislation. Having said that it's pretty clear the gov will set prices according to the THC levels so expect the good stuff to stay highly priced at the $12-15 mark like Tweed has it now...which seems to have no problem selling out.

Going to be some great numbers and margins Q4. Can't wait to see the cogs from that full harvest of Niagra 50 mil inventory!

Expect news from Canopy this year then, maybe soon imo. Bruce has stated very clearly in last conference call he wants to be growing IN germany not exporting there. Excellent.

Very nice. Suttle suggestion without naming names and guess who likely has the most supply at the moment?

Cheers John and thanks for the cudos but the truth is that while I have been in WEED (CGC) since early August of last year there are wiser posters on this board other than myself who saw much earlier what took me 6 months of dd before I jumped. In fact I was skulking this board for clues from these guys to point me in due dilligence directions long before I ever posted for the first time. I follow a few other boards as well constantly. Take everything in and double check it all. Ask for help when you dont know what you are doing...good people are everywhere if you are willing to see them.

I see boards as a place to feel which way the wind is blowing, take tips and then research those tips on my own outside of the boards. I'm not a trader for the most part and dont want to be so I find a good company and hold until they are a bad company.

Its not that difficult to fact check posters and if you follow regularily you will see who backs it up, who talks smack & whoose agenda changes with the wind.

There is so much noise around WEED in particular that its harder than most though to seperate the reality from bs. The basic facts usually dont lie though if you look through the noise. Industry leader in licences, harvested production to date, licensed allowable kgs of bud and oil. The best track record of accomplishing stated goals. Largest international footprint. Best marketing period. Best storey to tell (this is important as shallow an evaluation metric as it is). The most cashflow for expansion. And more.

And then you have the legalization REALITY...its not a matter of if as many would have you believe only when...as for that when - who cares, its clear who will have the nost to sell when that happens. The PM and his staffers have been EXACTLY on point for well over 2 years and the story they are telling now is EXACTLY the story they have always told including the timelines. All other discussion points other than this are just noise from Trump to lack of supply.

A rising tide floats all boats.

I hear you and yet it will sell out like there is no tomorrow. Its kind of like that restaurant we all know of that we can only afford once in a while because its so effin expensive and yet you can never get in without a reservation and after decades they are still open while so many other cheapies just keep comin and goin.

Another confirmation today from the PM that marijuana legislation will be tabled "before summer".
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1069648

For starters not sure where you got the Goldman buying a licence bit. As far as how you get licensed it's no secret for anyone who wants to do more than stock board comment due dilligence. I offered you a start to that due dilligence and rather than taking the time to look into it further to really confirm on your own you simply fire back with a mind already made up...unfortunate as sharing our due dilligence and contemplating our investment is at least why I post...it's supposed to be reciprocal but of course that means having an open mind.

As for the licensing process the more licenses you have the easier it is to get more in a faster time...this is actually pretty clear on HC website. A Developer gets a conditional licence based on screening and plans before they sink tons of cash into the physical conformity of the location...again pretty clear on HC website. HC does not announce who is conditionally approved only once they have reached certain milestones...again pretty clear on HC website. Once you pass the personal screening stage and proposed location plans are approved it's basically a given as long as you build to standard etc just a matter of time and how much money you have to complete in a timely manner.

You can absolutely bet that locations are acquired and started without our knowledge. All offers on a locations for example would have conditional status clauses like subject to "HC approval" or "subject to zoning approval"...standard course of business I deal with every day.

Take it or leave it. Matters not to me as I know how to do due diligence that protects my net worth. Just intended to offer you a start to some further dd if your own. There is no big conspiracy here. Cheers.

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/marihuana/info/application_steps-etapes_lp-pa-eng.php

Goldman will most likely be acquiring space and renovating to spec so there will likely not be the "construction " like you think. Bruce is on record as I recall staying with a similar space to the Hershey factory they could be up and running inside of 8 weeks start to finish as it's simply duplication at this point.

Can't confirm it Goldman at this point but this article went largely unnoticed. Sounds and looks a lot like a certain Hershey factory we know. I'm in real estate and I live in the province the location talks about...while I can not confirm it's Goldman first hand there are rumours on my end. In fact the town in question is eerily similar to Smith Falls.
https://www.google.ca/amp/www.mylloydminsternow.com/10237/mayor-excited-north-battleford-medical-marijuana-proposal/amp/

Furthermore my understanding is that the additional Hershey Factory rooms are pretty much ready to go pending Health Canada approval and they will be two floors each room...personally I expect news on this soon.

Expansion is happening rapidly guaranteed...just because we don't hear about it directly addressed via email to each of us personally doesn't mean it isn't. When was the last time Bruce played any cards before he had a winning hand? He plays a great game of poker, doesn't give any advance guidance or marketing help to his competitors and knows how to fire his bullets in a controlled progressive way. If you want an LP that blows their wad in 30 seconds flat you could always buy a few other LPs who will remain nameless.

Yeah it wont be a tough sell because it won't be a refferendum on it lol. Very simple...gov will do it the way they want which is clearly pro LP becuuse in reality they have already been given a mandate by the voters to do it.

The path will be no different then prohibition was for booze. Do it asap....struggle with supply at first which is actually the only way a market can correct...get a grip on it and close off illegal distributors over time. We all know and enjoy how that story turned out.

There is really only one way a the legal mj market can get over a supply shortage and its not from prolonging legalization. No company will risk ramping up to substantially without legislation in place first...plans are one thing...action is something else entirley. No active legislation...no active traditional financing - less expansion. Contrary to popoular belief government is not entirely stupid and will realize this. Its actually the natural course of supply and demand throughout history over and over and over again. Rinse repeat.

I agree that mail order is likely in short order. Having said that my guess is this article is the real reason for some sell off yesterday. It was kind of a bi polar market yesterday so indecisive. Positive article all around though and clearly stated the US policy does not matter.

Great insight here. Have a listen.
If you have any doubts that marijuana recreational use is going ahead in Canada then you need to listen to this. Bill Blair, essentially the PMs cop in charge of getting it done, answers the question leaving no doubt yesterday.

https://omny.fm/shows/the-craig-needles-show/craig-needles-show-bill-blair-interview-february-2

Here is what I have assuming my math is correct. The Mettrum order numbers are from 2016 as that's the only order numbers I have been able to confirm via a patient on another board I post on...currently trying to get 2017 order number.

* Tweed (01/05/17) #189040 to Tweed (02/22/17) #209360 = 48 days = 423 orders per day
* Bedrocan (02/20/17) #66100 to Bedrocan (01/24/17) #59010 = 27 days = 262 orders per day
* Mettrum pre Canopy (08/22/16) #129976 to Mettrum pre Canopy (10/20/16) #153664 = 59 days = 401 orders per day

If this holds true then Canopy is averaging 1086 orders per day.

I think the costs to acquire will drastically drop. In fact I think you are going to see patients go up dramatically for one reason: inventory.

Clearly Canopy is the leader in this now and they haven't even ramped up additional expansion yet. As of December Canopy is now selling product they grew a quarter ago...a lot less hand to mouth day to day...it's not enough yet but clearly that's Bruce's path.

Patients will go where the inventory is, doctors (& pharmacies if that happens) will refer where the inventory is...rinse repeat the circle is now formed and growing.

Not allowed to market you say?...who cares..,these days marketing is all about the social networking online & off. My clientele for example has grown at a rate of 17% per year every year since about 2011...that's roughly one year after I cut all advertising $ to zero and focused on exceeding clients expectations while networking them online...very simple good news travels fast from one person to another when it's direct communication. Also people trust a recommendation from a friend without question far more than any media advertising.

Inventory and quality product are going to separate Canopy by miles this year.

It's all good. I like adventures. ??Cheers.

I think you are confusing calendar year sales with fiscal years sales. That pro forms sales number for MT & WEED combined was a fiscal year number as both entities have the same fiscal I believe. It puts Canopy on pace for 50-60 million for the fiscal year and imo 80-100 million for the calendar 2017 year.

Spot on. I was cautious for a long time...took 6 months of research to convince me as I'm not a trader for the most part...long or nothing. Early August last year I jumped in in a huge way. Not as early as most of you here so kudos to you all. Essentially I have not seen one misstep imo by Canopy. Bruce has real vision and I think surprising to some (not to me ??) strong execution sensibility.

I want the company that wins the marathon not the qualifying heats and I'm willing to bet on it. I hold no other marijuana plays. All the irons in the fire and international tentacles...people forget rec is merely the icing on the cake and this company is so much more than just a weed farmer.

People are all going to wake up one day to a massive pharma news drop not to mention many other surprise right hooks out of nowhere because they were so focused on recreational marijuana they forgot about everything else.

See the forest not the trees.

Bill Blair said this yesterday and he would know.

"the drug will only be available in government regulated drug outlets"

This is a good read. Pretty telling in where we are headed and quickly I think.

http://southasiandaily.com/uncategorized/midweek-exclusive-marijuana-is-dangerous-regulating-it-will-benefit-canadians-mp-bill-blair-on-channel-y/

A MUST READ. It's coming sooner than you think imo & the LPs are going to sell a lot of marijuana. Latest from Bill Blair:
"...the drug will only be available in government regulated drug outlets..."

http://southasiandaily.com/uncategorized/midweek-exclusive-marijuana-is-dangerous-regulating-it-will-benefit-canadians-mp-bill-blair-on-channel-y/

Extractor = Oil = Capsules = Germany, Australia, Brazil (markets with no rec on the horizon yet) pretty much NOW.

The short answer? Here is why:


*WEED January 3, 2017 sp $9.39. WEED February 22, 2017 sp $12.50. +33.12%.

*APH January 3, 2017 sp $5.11. APH February 22, 2017 sp $6.48. +26.81%.

*ACB January 3, 2017 sp $2.38. ACB February 22, 2017 sp $2.79. +17.22%.

To the best of my knowledge licenced capacity has not changed since then & here is the data I put together via Health Canada & Investor Realations. It currently broken down as follows I believe:
Canopy dried cannabis 13,500 kgs
Canopy Oil 6,700 kgs
Mettrum dried 5,600 kgs
Mettrum oil 3,100 kgs

Not totally relevant but I have Aphria at 3,600 kgs dried cannabis & 450 kgs oil licensed capacity at the moment.

Without a doubt. They actually did execute if you think about it another way. They pulled off a massive harvest that ALL other LPs can only dream about at this point and they did so to the best of my knowledge without loosing any plants and no recalls.

I agree it's disappointing but in reality it's the same for all LPs and if its not then I don't want to own them because they clearly are not growing fast enough.

At the end of the day it's mistakes that we and all businesses learn from the most or at least we should. I would judge this not by what it is now but by exactly as you infer...what happens on the next harvest.

Having said that it's actually part of the process. If you think about it it is getting ahead on inventory that eliminates the very problem you bring up. Hence as of today that problem should forever more be eliminated because what they sell tomorrow is from 2 harvests ago so to speak. This it the actual process by which you grow economies of scale for every business from the beginning of time.

Some food for thought. The fall short of what my personal calculated sales target for WEED of 12 million is disappointing but clearly explained when you analyze the numbers and the conference call:

1) WEED harvested a company record 5,264 kilograms this quarter vs 1,711 kilograms in the previous quarter. That represents a 308% increase...think about that. Bruce said in conference that they could not get it all to market even though the demand was there because a) health canada and their own high standard testing & b) he admitted they were not prepared for the demand that quickly and as such growing pains in that type of harvest increase (on another note I like CEO's who take responsibility).

2) Inventory at Dec. 31, 2016, valued at $50 million comprising 8,375 kilograms of dry cannabis and 2,683 litres of cannabis oils. Of the total dry cannabis on hand only 10% was available for sale during the quarter...think about that. To my way of thinking thats 40 million worth of inventory on hand suggesting WEED is now ahead of the curve...they can likely supply all of q4 while growing for q1 2018. This is why WEED's plan is the best imo...while other companies will be growing day to day WEED will be ramping up even further to grow well ahead of demand.

Now I do not mean to diminish my disappointment for this quarter sales but the more I dig into the numbers from a forward thinking perspective the more confident I have become that the play is correct for me. After all the stock market is nothing but forward thinking regardless of wether you are an Investor or a Trader.

Canopy Health Innovations Enters into Agreement with Dr. Mark Ware

Now what does this tell you about where WEED is headed? Remember that Dr Ware guy...the world renowned marijuana research specialist...oh yeah and the Vice Chair to the governments task force report on marijuana.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canopy-health-innovations-enters-agreement-113000122.html

Obviously that must mot include Metrum. How will they be handling Metrum's last quarter...wasnt q3 also finished up December 2016. I assume they will report both numbers independantly on the 14th?

Then there is the issue of how do you prove any damages are related to the LPs marijuana? More than likely any complaintant would have been smoking marijuana for years and unlikely it always from one particular LP. Ever smoked black market? The fact is it's most likely that a complaintant has spent more years smoking black market pot than LP not to mention teyingba few different LPs. There will be advertisements by lawyers to "gather" clients because that's what they do...in the end it will come to nothing.

The system works...infractions were caught...the system is better because of those infractions...zero doubt it's safer than black market/dispensaries. End of story really.

I am far from an expert but couldn't it be done using aeroponics? I think in particular to Tweed thats why they are involved with Indoor Harvest.

The lack of any substrate could easily make high ceiling rooms like at Smith Falls twice the grams or more per square foot. Square footage is alway and only reported from a foot print basis...in other words a 100 square foot room with enough ceiling height could easily be 2-3 times the size depending on height.

Not sure what to tell you. Not doubting your logic or math just thought the report would help you. I always presumed they would have it right as the study seems very in depth and well sourced. Having said that I agree with the assessment that it does not seem right.

I have not read this in a while but you may find it very useful for your projections. This report was done for the Washington State Liquor & Cannabis Board in order to estimate the adequate licensed square footage needed. The conclusion essentiually came to 40 to 47 grams per square foot if I recall correctly depending on indoor or outdoor harvest.

http://lcb.wa.gov/publications/Marijuana/BOTEC%20reports/5a_Cannabis_Yields-Final.pdf

I would add that I think there is a case to be made that medical sales are not even priced in on this stock yet. If we get to 80 million plus sales this year wouldnt the stock price be worth more than $11 based on current gross margins? Seems a no brainer to me.

Then you take the distinct possibility that WEED will open a grow op in Germany where 100% of the population is covered under health insurance for medical marijuana AND THEY HAVE NO PRODUCERS YET....they import 100%. Canopy already owns a supply chain there, has been working with the countries initiative for medical marijuana for some time, has Bedrocan Canada which is highly regarded over there even though it gets down played here and is the Canadian first mover in that market....another no brainer for me.

IMO its more likely he meant 12 million in sales for Q3 2017 that will be reported this month.

I can't see WEED not blowing away 12 million for Q4 2017 given that you will have MT sales, Tweed Sales, Bedrocan Sales, Germany Sales all in Q4. Not to mention these brands can barely keep stock on the shelves and Tweed greenhouse will then have had 2 full cycles of 100% utilization. By all accounts lately you have increased sale price per gram, no shipping costs anymore and with the full utilization of Tweed greenhouse you will likely see the cogs come down.

Lets not forget that our competition like ACB has capped client intake apparently and cant even grow enough to supply their own patients...they had to purchase from OGI who clearly has trouble building a clientlelle given that they even had lots they could sell to another producer. Then you have APH who while I think is a good company, pissed off the vets and will not release patient numbers...I wonder where those patients moved to, could it be the company (Canopy) who immediately responded they will honour the vets with out screwing them and offering all product at HC's price cap?

From where my DD sits we are in for good financials. If you extrapolsate HC's data, use the market share predictions and my points above you cant help but get to a projection of $80-100 million in medical sales for calender year 2017.

Today's share price is as much a bargain as it was under $6. Arguably the picture is so much clearer now then it was under $6 that its less risky and less speculative now, not more. Just my rant lol. Cheers.

Symbol has been changed to WEED on the TSX. As of November 2016 4 letter tickers are allowed and CGC had this reserved for some time now.