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Could you be more specific Cattdog? If you could please answer any of the following questions with factual based information that would be terrific:
Who is accumulating?
When did they start accumulating?
How much have they accumulated to date?
How much are they accumulating per day when our volume is almost non existent?
If you could answer any of these with actual evedince to support your claim that would be great. If not I will assume you are just pumping.
Thanks
And I absolutely agree with you Easy. Along with FBG and most of this board probably. The issue is we have never been anywhere close to that value or ever had any PT even close to that value. You appear to have a similar strategy as Dan did. Keep control of the company until the value gets to a point where a reasonable offer gets us to a multi billion dollar BO valuation. The only issue there is during the 4 years he was incharge, no real value was ever created. Even with all the data realeased and the partnerships and the big tutes investing, nothing ever got the SP up. So after years of being a long hopeful investor, reality starts to set in. We should be higher right now, we should get a huge offer for our great science, but in reality we are a $300MM stock with potential and no offers. Why is that? A 3B offer would be GREAT, a 2B offer would be good, and a 1B would be accepted by most because of the damage Dan caused while incharge. A billion offer would have been laughed out during Dans first 3 years at the helm. His last year caused a lot of damage to investor expectations of the future. Sure that damage can be reversed if this jumps to 20+ quickly but that is just a dream at this point (until when/if it happens). Nobody on this board wants a 1B BO. But most have dreamed so long of 6B,5B,3B, even 2B. Expectations get lowered over time and reality sets in. But lets hope you are right with your prediction.
Easy, you are all over the place with your posts today. You are predicting 2-3B BO for the company, and predicting why FBG thinks 20-25 in more in range. You are literally making predictions about why another poster is predicting a lower price than you. That is getting a bit crazy dont you think. Also since when did the Amgen and Sellas deals become valued at $1B+? Because that is what you just posted. Keep in mind Dan also predicted $50 by 2015. What happened there? Sure the Bio market took a dump but what is it doing now? Recovering nicely. And what is ADXS doing...
Just got the email alert. Looks like it might be time for me to get back in. I said not until either Instiutions start buying in hard, shorts bail out, or DO is gone. Guess I will start following this again. It has been a nice stress free few months. By the way, what happened to the SP. In the 5s and 6s. I thought this had a strong base at 8-9? Guess the drop with heavy volume was because of this news. Could drop hard and fast tomorrow. But in the long run, this is better than a BO news. Hopefully the bod finds a good qualified permanant replacement.
Hahaha until the next setback or extension or slow progression, then it will be BO expected 2020 then 2021 then 2022. Nothing has changed for this company in many years with no change in sight. Just more missed expectations and more free or issues for management. Warrant holders will be lucky to get $5 before expiration.
Well why would Dan not want to disclose that an offer was made to the shareholders? If he were to pr "we have received offers but are progressing all of our trials for a substantially higher value in the future". Would that not look good, cause some heat under the shorts, and buying pressure for the tutes? Probably. Or he sits on it and continues to buy in the single digits and issue himself unearned rewards while shareholders are in the dark and near 52 week lows. I guess with Dan being so greedy, that actually does make since.
Inesti, please don't take this as bashing because it genuinely is not. IMHO as long as Dan is CEO, I see him maintaining control of the company for around the next 5 years. I do not see him selling with final P3 data in hand. By that time I could see him wanting 10B for the company as long as things still look good. I used to also think 2018 would be the year of a BO but so little has progressed since Dan took charge. I know many will disagree but that is my opinion and that is why I think we are sitting here at $8 with zero offers to date. Now if we were getting lowball offers I would agree with you but since none have been made so far, I find it extremely hard to believe that ADXS will go from a 300M valuation to a BO value of 2-3B? What range do you think it will sell for next year? The 6B that Dan wants? I just can't see it. Looking back 4 years vs looking forward 1, I can not justify a multi billion BO based on past performance. I think a BO is just a comforting thought that makes longs feel better about the SP performance since Dan took charge.
Also some would lead you to believe even though more funds added shares, does not mean that more shares were sold by funds rather than bought, which is exactly what has happened over the past 3 consecutive quarters.
James you make it sound like 50 funds adding 1,000 shares and 1 fund selling 100,000 is better than 50 funds selling 1,000 and 1 fund buying 100,000. Why look at the number of funds when the share activity is what matters. More shares have been sold than bought for the last 3 consecutive quarters.
So it looks like Dan might have tried to implement this strategy you mentioned. 2 PR's already this week with ASCO next week and the IC the following. He might have been trying to bump the price up before going into either of those 2 upcoming events. Unfortunately he failed to deliver a PR that caused any volume or buying pressure. It would have been a great strategy, but our CEO failed on the performance side. No surprise there though.
No maple, what you mean to say is "shorts are coving IMO". You can not be sure of your claim until the short data is released next week to support your claim. It is only your prediction until then.
So if you think Dan has let them off, you must think a significant amount of the 9.2MM shares short have covered. What is your prediction on shares covered on the next data release? It must be in the millions? So how many do you think it is maple?
My guess for today's close is 8.08. I think it will close up a penny. I don't think it has closed red 5 days in a row for a long time.
By sitting near 52 week lows with no uptrend in sight? Ummm I'm not short this stock but do you know how shorting works? When SP is low, shorts make money. When SP is high, shorts loose. I find it concerning you don't know this bking.
If "positive" news is released at near 52 week lows and and "extremely undervalued" then any actual positive news will cause the SP to go up, not down. There is no way around it. But if the news is just fluff, then the price will not do much or even go down. These pr's are not causing any buying pressure or gaining the attention of new large investors. It's just allowing daytraders and shorts to play. Until news is released that causes a multi million volume day with a significant increase in SP, this is just noise, not news and especially not positive news.
So does today's news take the price back into the 7's today?
Based on previous trading, there is no reason to think it won't. Surprised Dan didn't release this yesterday. He might have been able to by his month end shares under $8
When did Advaxis enter into collaboration with Merck?
The PR was announced on Aug 25,2014. This collaboration is very similar in format but just a new construct. What do we know from that collaboration to date? Very little. So maybe 3 years from now we will know very little from this BMS collaboration, assuming history tells us anything. Yes how is this down today! We could have good news 3 years from now regarding this. We should be at $1B because of this. Haha good luck hopeful longs. At least you stay positive and looking forward. One day could be your day. Or maybe not. Who cares, you are still partial owners of a $10B company (even if the SP does not reflect that value). That is comfort enough I suppose.
So what caused the 12% drop in the last 3 days if this news was not leaked?
Answer: Leaked disappointing news!
You mean the 12 month price targets that were set 2 years ago? Those price targets? The SP was also in the teens when they came out, not $8. No recent new targets have come out recently calling for 20+ have they?
Smasse, to answer your question, Blackrock did not purchase 2.2MM shares during the past quarter.
My previous post #20324
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131407564
This is what I discovered after I did some DD on Blackrock holdings last week. As you can see Blackrock did not add shares nor did any other Institution add a significant number of shares, so the 100 share "manipulation" is still just guestimates at this point. Nothing to support this theory yet.
Yea that's a good point.
You may be right, I might be making a mistake not being in but then again I might be able to look back months from now and be thankful that I got out when I did. Only time will tell. Now I don't think it will go down much or any from here. I think 7-8 is probably the bottom, but I personally think it's dead money for a while. I was worried to be out of this stock for even a single day over my 4 years of being in it and there ended up being no reason at all to think that way as nothing major ever happened overnight. I don't think anything will change over the short/mid term and I feel like I have a much better chance at generating returns in other stocks rather than continuing to hold adxs for the hope and dream of one day it going up big. I feel quite comfortable risking it at this point.
Bourbon, even though it does appear that Blackrock added a ton this quarter, unfortunately that is not actually the case. Assuming you are using data from whalewisdom.com like I am, It looks like for some reason they (either WW.com or Blackrock) consolidated all of their subsidiaries under 1 filer this quarter. Similar to what Fidelity/FMR did in a past quarter if I recall. If you consolidate all 12/31 Blackrock ADXS holdings vs 3/31 Blackrock Inc holdings, it looks like a slight drop of 26k shares, which is a similar change to previous quarters. Also looking at the 13F filings for BR Inc for 3/31 and comparing to prior quarters, you can tell that the fluctuations stand out pretty drastically.
I have always relied on data from whalewisdom to be accurate but now I am starting to wonder. Still not sure if it was the way the website reflected it on their side or if it was an actual filing change from Blackrock.
I sold most of it but not all. Still holding 10% of my original 4 yr long position. Also holding some long dated call options that I have been sitting on for a while now. No I am not looking to add back any shares at this time. I have said in the past that I would only add if certain events happen. Also not short nor do I plan to short this stock at any time.
Looks like another 800k shares disposed of by institutions this quarter per the 3/31 quarterly 13F filings. That makes the 3rd quarter in a row that they have net sold more than bought during a quarter.
Again per the last quarterly filing, yes there were more shares sold than purchased. Here is a link that shows that:
https://whalewisdom.com/stock/adxs
Catt, I don't understand your response. Do you disagree?
Here is a link that supports my statement.
https://whalewisdom.com/stock/adxs
Do you have a link to support your "accumulating" claim?
Thanks
That is true, but per the last quarterly filing, and the one before that, we know more institutions have been selling rather than buying. We will know next week for this Q1 if hey have begun accumulating again but based on the previous data, there is no proof of accumulation going on.
Catt who do you think is "collecting" shares? An institution/hedge fund or a mm?
No vote next year. Approval was for 10 years. 2.5MM shares per year for 10 years for management incentives and bonuses.
Not to rehash the recent RSU award by Dan, I know everyone has their opinion and view on it, and those who support it say "complain to Adage, fidelity, etc." but has anyone noticed exactly when this recent downtrend in SP started? At the market close on May 1 ADXS was sitting on a 6 week high. After the close on the same day the filings came out showing the RSU awards. Since then we are down 9% in just 4 trading days. Was the run up to May 1 in anticipation for ASCO? Maybe maybe not. Was the subsequent decline since the filing a direct result of Dan's RSU grab? Well based on the timing, with no other material news announced, and only a 1% drop in IBB, it would appear that the market might agree that DO is getting carried away with the RSU's. Unless there is any other reasonable explanation for the 9% drop on no news other than the RSU filings?
Yea that was Dan'starget also 4 years ago. If you were here when he said it then you know how that turned out. It's easy to predict a high SP but it is quite difficult to actually achieve it, as we have seen so far. That's a nice prediction but it will not be achieved within your timeline.
Pieris Pharmaceuticals Inc. PIRS, +47.50% shares surged as much as 54% in premarket trade Wednesday on news of the company's $57.5 million deal with AstraZeneca AZN, -0.77% to develop drugs for respiratory diseases. The deal includes $45 million upfront and $12.5 million in a milestone payment once Pieris begins a phase 1 trial this year for its lead preclinical drug, PRS-060, which is intended for patients with moderate to severe asthma. AstraZeneca will fund all clinical development and commercialization for PRS-060, with Pieris having the option of U.S. co-development and co-commercialization starting in phase 2a clinical trials. The agreement covers four additional therapeutic programs, with Pieris having the option for U.S. co-development and co-commercialization for two of them. Pieris is eligible for up to $2.1 billion in development dependent milestone payments and eventual commercial payments.
$45MM upfront payment for a preclinical $103MM market cap company. Nice deal PIRS. Kinda makes Dan's deal with Astra look pretty weak. I guess Astra views us no different than an unproven $100MM nobody.
Hey Catt, 8.41 is back.
"If he sells the company, they get it all at that time." All 25MM shares? Is that true?
FBG, unforunately Dan does not have to worry about getting the "next" comp proposal approved because this one will remain in place for 10 years. Up to 2.5MM shares per year with the unused rolling into the next year pot. This recent management award is the new norm and will continue until the comp is sold. There is no longer a rush for Dan to generate SH value for the investors because he is guaranteed hundreds of thousands of shares per year while he remains CEO. The longer he holds out the more $$$ he makes. I agree with your comment about selling the comp for $15. If anyone was in his position and had the opportunity to sell the comp tomorrow for 100 SP or wait 5-10 years and sell for the same 100 SP. which would you do if you are making $500k salary and awarding yourself 200k-300k RSU's per year. Holding out just 5 years would ADD $100MM to his net worth. Why rush to sell now? You wouldn't and he won't either! He does not care about paper gains now, he wants shares for when the BO happens. But no reason to think that will happen anytime soon. GL
Yes Easy, we all know why they received these free shares. Because we approved the recent proxy that gives ADXS the right to reward management and new employees with up to 2.5MM shares per year for any reason that they see fit. A "why" is no longer needed because SH's gave them approval in the proxy. Good luck. This is why I bailed months ago. I know longer trusted Dan.
Personally I disagree. I think there will be plenty of buying opportunities over the next 12-24 months. Especially in the single digits. After 4+ years as a LTSH I finally sold out 90% of my position after the IND news earlier this month and I could not be happier with my discussion. With the recent increase in short interest after that news and the sharp drop in SP just days later, both with huge volume days, it is obvious nothing has changed and the whole "no shares available" for shorts to cover, is just not true. Plus the selling from institutions over the last 2 quarters does not look good (if you think they are buying then you are relying on bad data). Shorts are not trying or wanting to cover at this time. Over the last couple years the only people making money are the shorts, so they are not the dumb ones that are going to get burned. They will be just fine and will get out in plenty of time and walk away with tons of money. We still have an upcoming Proxy vote with a crazy incentive package and a $50M shelf overhang. Both of which will keep pressure on the SP. I think ADXS will eventually increase but not for many years. DO has a plan and it is to gather as many shares as possible over the next 10 years (just look at the proxy), keep ADXS flushed with cash via offerings, let the science do its thing which requires no involvement from him, and eventually sell his 2-3MM shares 8-10 years down the line at $100 SP and $10B valuation. He just has to keep acquiring and not get fired. The science will eventually get there. So getting in now at $7 or 2-3 years from now at $10, doesn't really make it a good buy now. GL to all the long termers. I just lost all confidence in Dan and will not buy back in until a new CEO is announced.
Ignatius, if today it is just traders and not investors selling, then what was yesterday? Just traders and not investors buying?
You say investors aren't selling today which is your opinion, but we can see that over the past 2 quarters that institutions have been net selling, slightly. About a million shares per quarter based on the 13F's.
I can also see that there is a 29.9MM shares float with only 22.2MM locked up by institutions. Where is the other 8.7MM shares? Retail? If they shorted naked then that would add another 8MM shares floating around out there.
Sorry if I sound negative or bothering anybody today, it just gets very old watching this board flip day to day based on the SP and so much factless based accusations of manipulation with absolutely no evedence to support that claim. Just gets old.
"The response of nobody selling"? We have had two 1.8MM share trading days in the last 2 weeks caused by a new partnership and the IND yesterday with minimal SP appreciation. How does that happen if there is no selling going on? Something kept us from going through $10 yesterday. Was it people selling for profits, shorts adding, a lack of buyers over $10? Not sure but I can't see how shorts are freaking out at this point. They have been holding onto to their 8-10MM shorted shares for a year now as we have been calling for double digits and ground breaking news. They are comfortable and can close their shorts within weeks if they really want to. Shares are not hard to find currently. Plenty out there and available if the demand is there.
Catt, if the company has received or has met the requirements to receive the milestone payment in the near future, then it is required to disclose that as a subsequent in the 10-Q. Today's actions has no bearing on the milestone payment or 10-Q
No this is exactly why we are down today. The entire sector is down big so we are down big as well. It is clear to see that. I even called it before the market opened this morning. We trend with the bio sector on non PR days. Yesterday we had a good PR (that everyone was expecting) and we had some volume early that dried up after the first hr. We closed above our 50 and 200 day moving avg that did absolutely nothing for us. Adxs does not trade based on the chart. It follows the sector. Always has and will continue to do so until we get material news that causes us to trade based on our own merits which will cause a reset to our valuation and institutions to start adding again. The shorts will leave when they are ready and they will likely not get fried before they leave either.
If we close down today and give up all of yesterday's gains from the IND acceptance PR, it is not because we are being manipulated, it is because the biotech sector could get crushed today and is already down big premarket and could get worse. If however we stay green and the ibb stays red today, then that means new buyers are stepping up or shorts are covering fast. I don't see a green close and it will be for no other reason than a bad day in biotech. Nothing more.