Buh bye
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Yes 10Q is coming out; I was told by IR today about this after asking about the lack of communications.
Almost zero chance of that in 2017 given the communications out of IR. I received 3 emails from them today alone.
Now where you get an idea like that I wonder???
We may very well revisit the Jul 20, 2016 trend up with EU partner news, but I think it will stick this time and have a higher ceiling.
Good point. Hopefully we get some September news to bump up us into double-digits. I believe we should continue to trend up from here until news though.
I agree. Selling now has really never made any sense.
Good to know. I must have missed your post. From what that, I seriously doubt that acquisition is in the queue near-term.
Looks like the next set of news should be an update on EMA submission progress and/or a possible EU partnership. Hopefully, the trend up continues from here.
Well, I spoke too early I guess!
Per IR:
"We will not be exhibiting at Rodman. We will be exhibiting at the Cantor conference on September 25th."
Per my original assertions, and the fact that communication is coming September, I no longer think "being acquired" is part of the current game , near-term (i.e. the next several months). Hopefully, we hear more on EMA submission progress at Cantor later this month.
Well, my first email to Advaxis IR - no response. Trying another set of questions. Noelle has never "not" responded to my questions in the past. Maybe she is slammed catching up on email post vacation.
By design.
Agreed. I really don't understand the reasoning around DOC's "negative impact". In the event that acquisition discussions are active or being courted, the timing is unfortunate given the current valuation. Whatever transpires, I hope Advaxis BOD does not sell "cheap" since it doesn't appear there is any immediate urgency to sell at all.
So.... thoughts on current silence?
I'm starting to believe that DOC leaving was tied directly to acquisition discussions (given Lombardo's history), which likely began months ago and have months more in front of us. More silence may mean more validation.
I suppose, eventually, we'll find out one way or another.
EXACTLY.
Fair, although I wonder if the recent Kite buyout will help drive those numbers up considerably?
If this is all really happening, I would wager the deal is for under 6 billion, since that was DOC's number.
But you're right - we'll never know assuming there is a BO within 6 months.
Well they brought in a guy with a history of transformation to acquisition, so doing that math, I'd say the latter. DOC was the wrong guy to lead to acquisition if that's what is going on.
So you do not see EMA Q4 submission as a material event then? Or maybe you think they are going to slip their submission date?
I sincerely hope you are right. I would much rather see this move to EMA submission and EU approval first.
After hearing that the Kite buyout talks took 9 months, each day there is silence will further my new belief that DOC's ouster was tied directly to beginning of buy out discussions. If this is true, we won't be hearing anything for a while unless a deal is closed before EMA submission.
In the absence of news, this is making the most sense to me at this time. If so, they better not settle for cheap.
Nailed it!
I think you're right. They're avoiding the webcast and communication of future plans for a reason. The reason - we don't know yet.
I did say news was possible as early as tomorrow, but I do believe we will hear something this month. To be clear, my view:
Expecting news this month related to EU/licensing/CEO/plan/EMA progress, etc.
If no news this month/quiet, I believe acquisition talks in progress
Hoping for the former...
It's my understanding they do not - they pulled out of the conference.
Can somebody actually confirm this?
Mufasa, I have no frickin' idea. But you have to consider the context of the recent, past events, and current situation. To summarize:
1. For reasons unknown, DOC is removed
2. Lombardo installed as CEO (happens to have a big history with acquistions)
3. Advaxis pulls out of September conference (silently)
Ok, it's been (more or less) crickets around these events. IR has indicated that further information will be shared in September around the roadmap, but basically any questions to them are met with "non responses" now. Add in the fact that the current plan of record we know of indicates the move to EMA submission in Q4 of this year. Crickets on this too.
All that I'm saying is that it seems like there is a lot to be shared for a company that is so silent. It leads to believe they are not in a position to disclose anything until their is closure on whatever is going on behind the scenes. Maybe nothing is going on and there is nothing to share - possible, but doesn't seem probable. I do have a queston to IR on why they pulled out of the conference. Shouldn't be a big deal to respond to that if it's a non-issue.
I guess we'll find out - eventually...
I just find the silence coupled with the pull-out from the conference that something material is about to be disclosed that would have been impossible to discuss at the conference.
The events, in context, just don't add up. I do believe we'll hear something from Advaxis this month IF acquisition proceedings are not in process.
Impossible to predict how possible suitors will react to EMA submission. They may jump-in early. Then there is the scenario of an EU partner? What if that partner already has plans to acquire with some contingencies?
Advaxis has far too much platform upside for BPs not take notice and jump in. I doubt Advaxis (the corporation) survives beyond Q3 of 2018.
He probably can't and that implies something, no?
The ongoing silence was given a jolt when Advaxis pulled out of this week's conference. I think it's more about folks believing news is imminent and may come this month in prep for EMA submission in Q4. Typical of Advaxis to throw in some "left field" news to surprise everyone though.
However, as I've stated, if the silence continues past September, I believe it points more to the possibility that acquisition talks are in progress.
I believe we're in for a shocker, and sooner than we think!
I know of stocks that have been halted and then open up significantly higher or lower dependent upon one or more of the following reasons:
a. Changes related to the financial health of the company
b. Major corporate transactions like restructurings or mergers
c. Significant positive or negative information about its products
d. Changes in key management individuals
e. Legal or regulatory developments that affect the company’s ability to conduct business.
Clearly there are a few above that Advaxis can "run into"
Well folks, first trading of September domani. Let's hope we can look back on this month as the inflection period where it all changed for good.
GLTAL
Cat, u think Advaxis exists as a company in 2019? I don't and if they do, it would be temporary, since they would likely be taking part in the closure of aquisition logistics.
I'm not a prophet nor an insider, but I can make informed/ educated guesses. I think we are being told a lot - implicantly - just need to read the tea leaves.
September, yah, I think it's gonna be a ton of fun and put a few nails in the coffin...
14 trading days...
That's all it took to move from $7.37 to $16.30, thanks to the Amgen news. Now imagine a scenario that includes an EU partnership, with significant cash, also pointing to an impending EMA submission.
$16.30? Try double that. Easily.
Huh. So an EU partnership with likely significant, upfront monetary support, coupled with EMA submission will not move the pps?
Not only are you wrong, but you are wrong substantially as in that scenario would move the valuation to all-time highs with no looking back. Soon after those events, Advaxis would undoubtedly get acquired.
Get ready. It's about to begin...
Nothing is common with Advaxis these days! I guess we shouldn't be surprised by anything.
In reading more about acquisition timelines, it's possible that early conversations started with stipulations around expectations for leadership. When Dan didn't align, he was out, plain and simple. Given the claims that DOC was "surprised" by his own dismissal, leads me to believe that he wasn't let go due to performance reasons. He would have had that feedback and would have known, unless he is keeping it close to his chest and just being dishonest about being surprised.
One scenario that we haven't discussed is a buyout with conditions, i.e. X price upon EMA submission and first approval. It's possible that these talks would take months to resolve. As I have said before, if we continue to hear silence through September and ongoing, it essentially confirms that acquisition talks have been in process and are ongoing.
Let's hope for licensing news and/or something not related to an acquisition to land in September! And the sooner, the better too.
The timing of planned events and current tea leaves infer so IMO, granted it's still speculative, but here is what I've concluded.
1. Advaxis let's go of the CEO and implants a CEO who has an "interesting" track record to say the least
2. Advaxis IR goes silent.
3. POR states Advaxis plans for EMA submission in Q4. This may imply that certain logistics are "in order" prior to submission, and I believe this may mean a partner to support marketing/distribution. Although not "required" for EMA submission, it aligns well with execution and distribution activities.
4. Advaxis pulls out of the September conference and gives no reason.
5. The pps trend, for no apparent reason, has suddenly reversed. I believe this is an early indicator to a response of impending events.
In summary, I believe Advaxis plans to meet the Q4 EMA submission require certain "events" to transpire in September.
We shall soon see.
Blue, concerning the chatter you've heard, any sense of the context at all? Very weird BUT exciting times.
Looks like September is going to drop a bomb on the shorts!
I think we're going to hear something from Advaxis this month. If more silence, then I'll be more convinced they are in an aquistion process. From what I've been reading lately, aquistion, from the first meeting to closure can take months or longer. Another month of silence will all but validate this for me personally.
Let's just hope they get a favorable valuation, if this is what's going on.