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Also interesting that the Oct contract got 'abandoned' so early. Some quotes already posting the Nov contract and it's only the first day after options expiry. I'd usually expect the switch to happen another day later, if not two.
I've been tracking that, and it is one of the main things keeping me hedged. Just gotta see which one gives when the spread collapses.
Dumpity, dumpity, dump! Was expecting it from about an hour ago.
WTI $49.89 UNCH
Cue the DUMP!
Options expiry today for Oct contract.
Agree on the IEA report. "Bullish" mass media yesterday and today should also be pause for caution.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/WTI-Breaks-50-As-Bullish-Sentiment-Builds.html
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Most-Bullish-Oil-Report-This-Year.html
*Exactly*, pleebs. Black candle and shooting star often mark a local peak.
ETFs? Wouldn't surprise me, and it would be good for a laugh. Closing above, though, would make black candles for the long side.
Yes it is, and look at what's happening now...
lol. This just looks propped up to me. The gap up shows in UCO and ETF dailies. Heed the warning, and cue the DUMP!
I want to see where WTI closes today first. But I still think so.
There's always money that will rotate for momentum. It always makes for some bag-holders.
Fueled by short covering, I'm sure. That's why I hedge. I'm better off here than high-$49.
Same here, plus put heavy spreads. otm on the call side.
$25.9X...Good enough for me!!
...now, cue the DUMP!
I guess the damn time machine might be working again!
Nice. Buying day today, I think. $26.1X target for me.
And why wouldn't they. Prices of refined products have the opportunity to spike and the bump in crude inventory would help its prices come down. Perfect move for refiners.
FWIW, it could whip up to say $49.20 first.Just to run stops, etc. But I think the bigger framework will allow big shorts to do what they do best. Pretty sure we'll see the dump between now and Friday.
As expected! Refining isn't keeping up. Last week running at 79.7%, and down to 77.7% this week.
And the news has been reporting refineries coming back on-line...hrmmmm. lol
Last week movement was mostly MM short covering and increasing spreads. Sorry for the late reply.
Build isn't huge...only because of low imports. At 'average' import levels would be another +10 to +12MM bbl. The supply chain gets slightly delayed, but the deliveries should 'catch up' in the coming weeks.
Cue that dump!
Understood and thanks! I always leave room to buy myself out of a problem. SVXY can always get whacked in half overnight.
Nice week is right! Your calls were more consistent!
Thanks guys.Really nice to see so many of us on the right side of today's move!
lol. So much for 'unlikely'
Low $47. Next week, if not today. Unlikely for today, but possible IMO.
Cue the next leg down...
Finally...hesitant to call it a few minutes ago.
Agreed. Maybe too much headline risk for them on Korean and Weather fronts.
Cue that dump...
Still expecting downward movement. We'll see.
Wasn't as large as it could have been. Imports down -822k bbl/day or -5.75MM bbl for the week. I was hoping for higher than the 4.6MM build, and that was the low side of my prediction. I thought a real surprise could have been 10 to 12.
API crude build +2.791MM bbl
Small API reaction down...only $49.05 hit.
I agree, at least somewhat.Didn't buy this last dip and will wait n see a bit. Wouldn't be surprised if SVXY sees low or sub 50s.
Waiting til tomorrow? I plan on more buying *after* EIA is out, but we'll see what API delivers.