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Agreed. Maybe i'm just underestimating the greed of the average human being, but I figured 18 years of longevity at a single company would result in a pretty huge wall to break down in order to convince a guy to flip.
I think it speak volumes about Dan's leadership ability that he was able to recruit Greg Smith to the ECIG team. Greg had previously put in over 18 years at SC Johnson, and he dropped them like a bad habit presumably because he sees the value in following Dan. The other scenario could be that Dan just offered him significantly more money than SC Johnson was paying him! lol
I think he was just saying that as of today, if the lenders wanted shares it doesn't make sense to exercise warrants, because they can buy from the open market for $0.32 per share, and if they exercised warrants they would have to pay $0.45 per share.
I think this might be the video you're referring to. it's dated August 4th, 2015:
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4398073100001/walking-again-with-the-help-of-exoskeleton-technology/?#sp=show-clips
I wonder what spurred so much action yesterday. more than 3 times the volume than we have been seeing in recent weeks, and today its back down to the norm.
Could you please explain your position? I'm not sure why you're so convinced that the Mansour relationship will have such an immediate positive effect for this company.
Yes they have a distribution deal, but as it's been stated before, the majority of MENA countries (where Mansour distributes) still have bans on ecigs. Not only that but there is a culture of tobacco smoking in many of these countries that goes back hundreds if not thousands of years.
As much as I would like to think otherwise, I firmly believe it will take a few (3-5?) years at minimum to gain any significant traction in the MENA region. Why do you think it will have such an immediate effect?
yup. I think any significant action through Mansour will take years. They can only legally distribute to select countries in MENA due to local laws, and it will be a very slow progression for public acceptance to spread throughout the region. Likely it will happen through the younger generations like it has in North America and Europe, but will definitely take longer to grow.
Does anyone have a take on public opinion of e-cigs and vaping in the North Africa / Middle East Region? I know a lot of governments in that region still have bans in place, and i'm wondering if through the propaganda machine, the general public as a whole still views them in a negative light.
Or maybe people are just going to do whatever the heck they want regardless of the bans. History shows that prohibition never really works. General public tend to be like children, tell people not to do something and they want to do it more than ever. lol
not sure. Don't have time to dig into it again today. my first post this morning basically asked the same thing. was wondering what (if any) limitations the warrants were under.
agreed.
I would love to hear some terrific news in Q2, but I think it will take at least until Q3 to show any significant improvement. And at least Q2/2016 until we are cash flow positive.
I prefer to be pleasantly surprised by a quicker turnaround rather than expect it all to happen by Q3 this year and be disappointed.
"so would you rather they had 400,000,000 warrants (which they can't as there is only 300m shares authorized) at 0.25?"
Not at all. I apologize for any miscommunication but I think my point was missed. It sounds to me like we're on the same page.
"it could help with cash flow that's for sure but how would the price go once they hit the market?"
I 100% agree. With a pile of new shares hitting the market, the PPS would tank. That was my initial point. I was just curious what others thought about the possibility of Dan's investor presentation being timed specifically in order to generate new interest in the stock to negate any negative PPS effects from a large scale warrant exercising.
bjdev's point was that the company could repurchase a majority of the new shares that hit the market to avoid a PPS collapse, but I'm saying they would have to use their new cash from the exercising of the warrants to do that because they don't have cash on hand. I don't see that as a likely scenario because i'm sure they would prefer to use the new money from warrant exercise to fund future operations instead of share buyback.
That makes sense. But there's now 200,000,000 warrants floating out there. I would think it reasonable however that considering this stock has been flat/down for so long, the warrant holders may want to see some immediate cash back from their investment even if it is a small margin. There's nothing to say they cant still leave a portion in play riding it out for higher gains.
I suppose it all boils down to how friendly the warrant holders are towards the company. ECIG doesn't have a ton of cash laying around to cover a large warrant sell off, and would probably prefer to save the cash influx from warrants exercised to fund future operations rather than blow it all buying back the shares. Too many warrants in play at once could be detrimental.
Again, back to my original point, maybe Dan's investor presentation is timed in order to bring enough interest to the stock that a big warrant selloff wont hurt the company. It's possible he's conspiring with the warrant holders in order to ensure they can realize a short term gain without damaging the company.
Does anyone know if there are limitations on the $0.45 warrants? If this goes north of $0.45 after Q2, is there anything stopping the warrant holders from excising and immediately selling for a profit?
I'm wondering if Dan's planned investor presentation is coinciding with Q2 in anticipation of PPS above $0.45. Maybe he's hoping he can raise enough interest to soak up the warrant shares that would be exercised and consequently sold by the warrant holders?
I'm just spit-balling here, and of course this is pure speculation. I'm just wondering if that line of thought makes sense to anyone else?
Thanks dolphintom, technical chart reading is definitely one of my weaknesses, so I greatly appreciate your insights!
I'm not debating that this thing could move north on some good news at Q2, but I still think it's unrealistic to expect anywhere near $1 in the near term.
Yes the company has great revenues, but they also have MASSIVE debt, and cash flow issues that need to be addressed before this skyrockets.
IMO the 200 day MA is an unrealistic benchmark, as the last 200 days (especially the oldest few months of the 200 dma) were rife with tons of hype and high volume based on nothing more than the false promise that this stock would turn a quick buck for investors looking to get rich quick.
Fundamentally this stock has changed. it's not a lottery ticket anymore. If you're a trader, you're hoping for some short term volatility to make a couple bucks, and if you're an investor you're looking at the fundamentals of the company (in the toilet right now, but strong management has begun to turn the ship around).
Just how much progress they have made will only be revealed at Q2 release. Personally if Dan keeps his word, and truly expects to put together an investor presentation after Q2 is released, than I see that as a sign that things are looking up enough to spark new interest in the stock.
I'm certainly not saying I know better than you or anyone else here, as I am admittedly a novice investor, however this stock has been pretty flat all week hasn't it? It jumped on Monday from 0.24 when dudeness bought 100,000 shares, and otherwise has stayed in a band of .27-.30
Regardless of what it does in the next few weeks, I am still in it for the long haul. I was one of the poor souls to hold through the RS, but have since knocked my avg. price to $0.96. I have debated dumping more money in this to bring my avg closer to insiders, but my portfolio is already extremely unbalanced with how much I have invested here.
Bidders will only have to hit the ask if they are desperate to acquire shares and think it's going to move up imminently. I don't know what PPS those unfilled bids are sitting at, but I think it more than likely they expect another dip between now and Q2 fins, and can pick up shares a little more cheaply.
Things will probably be different as we get closer to the Q2 release date though. Might get more people panicking to get in before the speculated boost from Q2.
As it stands, we are still 3 full weeks away.
I don't have L2, but the little volume chart that I can see on the board here shows that the vast majority of the volume today has been selling. I know its very small volume regardless, but don't the rules of supply and demand still apply to a certain degree? If there is mainly selling in today's action, how can the PPS move up?
From what I can see, there may be a lack of selling (little volume), but there is a greater lack of buying (minuscule volume).
That would be nice, but what exactly do you guys all think is going to effect a $0.025 increase by EOD when there's been next to no interest in this so far today?
We've all been waiting this long... just a little more patience. Management has been very open about the fact that they will not do any PR until after Q2. The lack of good news, combined with the hype dying down really did a number on this stock, but if it really is improving as many people here suggest it is, we should see a PPS hike in 3-4 weeks time.
I'm the wrong person to ask lol.
I prefer to keep my expectations low, and maybe be pleasantly surprised.
I would hope to see a jump into the $0.40-$0.50 range. With so many warrants exerciseable at $0.45 I suspect that range will come with some major resistance though.
That being said, I don't really expect much out of this until we are cash flow positive, and wouldn't be surprised if we don't move very much until then.
Ahh very interesting. I think that would be a good avenue to pursue once they have their current financial issues ironed out. One can only hope that they wont be too late to the party at that point. I'm assuming there are a number of other companies already actively working this angle?
Since it is a different liquid, would they have to sell a completely different vape system that is optimized for that liquid? Or could it be as simple as selling one vape system with a variable voltage to be adjusted for different liquids?
I'm assuming CBD is cannabinoid?
Yes you are correct. I had to look at that 8K again for a refresher.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/150702/ecig8-k.html
I agree that the numbers are certainly far from ideal, but one can only hope that Dan can show substantial improvement in the Q2 fins.
It's easy to forget just how dire of circumstances that Brent Willis put the company in, when he acquired so many companies last year on borrowed money, and put all his eggs in the nasdaq uplist basket.
Dan may have a history of being a miracle worker, but this is going to take some more time for a recovery. As much as I want to see this company cash flow positive, I think to see it by end of year is pretty optimistic. Myself being a realist, I'm banking on Q2/2016 unless the Mansour arrangement really takes off in Q3/Q4.
On that note, I would love to see a big jump in revenues from that stream, but as has been pointed out before, many countries in N. Africa and Middle East are still stringently anti-ecig. My speculation is that it's in part due to big T lobbying & under the table payoffs in those countries.
I would have to agree with you uksausage, however given that the additional $6M is at an interest rate of 2.25% per month, wouldn't it be reasonable to assume this money would only be borrowed under extreme circumstances, or based on an expectancy of the company to be able to repay that money in very short order?
If they are simply using that additional $6M just to balance their books, that is going to end up being an incredibly expensive loan at the end of the day.
wow! Nearly a 5% increase in PPS based on extremely low volume. I feel that this should really jump even with mediocre buying pressure.
Try in a month from today when Q2 fins come out! It's gonna be flat / downhill until at least then.
Not so much... As has been pointed out on this board before, ECIG is well positioned to handle any strenuous regulations and testing that would be required because of new regs. Other smaller mfgrs of vape juice would have a lot of trouble affording the costs, and would probably eliminate a good chunk of our competition. FIN's pre-filled V-tanks are especially well suited to regulations as it's coming sealed up from the factory, with no chance of anyone messing with the liquid's properties (stronger concentration, possibly dangerous chemicals, etc..).
I'm not typically in favor of gov't regulations, but in this case I think it's important, especially when its being sold as a health product (stop smoking aid).
The reason the regulation was not passed is because it doesn't make sense to hold ecigs to a higher regulatory standard than traditional cigarettes. I agree with that, but I think the better solution would be to increase regulations on traditional tobacco products instead of denying regulations on ecigs. Traditional cigs are after all much more dangerous to public health.
Why the spike into the green just now? There doesn't appear to be any correlating trades. Is this some technical/chart thing that i'm too novice to understand?
So this case was dismissed, but that doesn't rule out the possibility that ECIG may have settled this outside of the court process does it?
Is it still possible that ECIG could be providing some form of compensation to appease them, and diffuse the situation?
Glad to see they are phasing out that disaster. They don't look any different than the regular ecigs except the packaging. If female smokers really need their own smoking identity that badly, Victory should just release an ecig that's coloured pink or something.
Yeah, we need to focus on convincing long term traditional smokers that they need to switch to ecigs / vapes so they don't wind up with emphysema by the time they are 50. Not only is the middle/late age crowd the largest demographic of smokers, but they're also the only ones who pay any real attention to Dr. Oz lol
Meek Mill endorsement would play up how cool it is, and encourage kids to use them who otherwise would never think about it. Kids are already making the transition from traditional cigs to ecigs and vapes without any additional encouragement.
I think the health factor should be played up. Maybe TV doctor endorsements? Dr. Phil, Dr. Oz, "The Doctors" team?
Nobody can tell you exactly what you are putting into your lungs with the cheap chinese shwag. Thats one of the huge reasons that ECIG among other companies have moved their manufacturing out of China.
From a health perspective (which is why most people would naturally switch from traditional cigs to ecigs/vapes to begin with) you're better off spending a few extra dollars to know what you're smoking.
Chinese Knockoff Vape ~$10-15
FIN AVS ~$20
High End Vapestore Vape ~$80-100
As much as I would love to believe you, what about today's trading makes you think that?
Given that the PPS was 0.26 when the CTO was announced, and it has since risen up to 0.30, would you expect an immediate 0.05 drop in share price on the day that the CTO is lifted in order to get back into position to cover? Or because of the regsho would they be able to take their time over a few days to drop it down?
This may just be my inexperience talking, but if the MM's were still naked shorting, wouldn't the PPS still be walking downwards? It's held around 0.30 all week (since the CTO was announced).
And if CSTI has all these international locations to operate from, wouldn't it still be quite easy for them to continue naked shorting and walking this down despite the Canadian CTO?
There just doesn't seem to be enough buying pressure to push this up.
FYI the term is "scapegoat" not "escape goat" lol
sorry for being grammar police, it's just good for a laugh in the morning
Considering that the recent low was 0.26, is it possible that a number of those investors who purchased for 0.25 have lost faith, or otherwise would rather make a minimal profit and move on to greener pastures with a shorter timeline for returns? The general consensus seems to be to not expect much here for the next 6 months at least.
It stands to reason that could be why the price stabilized somewhat after the CTO was issued for Canada if those original investors were all Canadian.
That's an interesting theory Power Forward. One that you have repeated multiple times on this board but to date have failed to back up your claim.
Dilution was certainly the case over a month ago when it was proven that the OS increased from 36M to 70M shares, however since the Q1 financials, there have been many people stating via conversations with management that the OS has stayed the same since May 15.
If you have any proof that dilution has been taking place over the last month, and the OS is still increasing, I would love to see it.