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Delusions based upon halucinations don't often produce solid financial results.
"I doubt they see SGLB as pretty lame but quite the opposite." Yup. Bet they are just tickled pink with all the money they have lost here. If SGLB's performance to date has not been "lame" I'm not sure how you would define the term. Pathetic, perhaps.
So......What exactly did happen?
That would be a cause for some significant celebration!!
Wind: "wouldn't voting yes and postponing for a potential hail-mary be the only choice?" It depends upon your assessment of how successful the "hail-mary" effort will be. I know that I am in the minority here but I don't give them much of a chance. Retaining something from your investment is clearly better than losing it all. Shareholders need to weigh the odds and make their choice. It's either sell before the vote or ride it out. My only point to Silver was that I don't believe a "no" vote is a viable option for anyone.
Silver, I understand your frustration with Rice's letter and the intent to increase the authorized share count. A "NO" vote would certainly send a message but I'm afraid it would also cause them to turn out the lights. It seems clear that there was minimal if any revenue generation in Q-4, otherwise we certainly would have heard about it. In my opinion the outlook for revenue generation in Q-1 is uncertain enough that Rice is not willing to take the risk of continuing operations without a share increase. The two viable options seem to be to vote for the share increase and hope that this time around it is going to result in some revenue generation or get out now while the share price is still somewhat elevated from recent weeks. It's clear to me that if the share increase is granted that this will be SGLB's last rodeo in terms of raising additional funds. Even the most fervent supporters would likely not go along with yet another share dilution after this one. I believe the share price this morning is demonstrating that some number of shareholders have decided to throw in the towel. They are going to take a beating on their investment, but it will be decidedly worse if this last ditch effort by management is not successful.
I hear Brent talking about "execution", I just haven't witnessed much of it as yet.
Expectaions and execution are two different animals. I'm certainly pulling for him but the jury is still out.
"Just that they are looking to provide the vocational training that will allow the students to be part of the work force in the local AM facility." Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I'm very familiar with Crown Pointe (located in the poorest county in New Mexico) which is saying something with the highest rate of alcohol and drug abuse (which is also saying something). Let's check back two years from now. This simply is not going to happen.
Navajo Technical University is not exactly the "Harvard of the Southwest". It's located in Crown Point New Mexico (population less than 2500, almost exclusively Navajo). It offers vocational training to the students in the following areas. It is very difficult for me to imagine that this institution is capable of preparing the trained workforce to take on this kind of manufacturing program. The idea that they would be at the forefront of the industry in two years is more than a little difficult to imagine. This whole thing sounds like a publicist dream with little chance of materializing. Do some research on Navajo Technical University and judge for yourself.
Accreditation for NTU Degree Programs:
The following degree programs are accredited by specialized and professional organizations.:
Program Accreditation
Carpentry (Certificate)
Construction Tech (Certificate)
Welding (Certificate)
Electrical Trades (Certificate).
Culinary Arts (Certificate)
Culinary Arts (A.A.S.)
Professional Baking (Certificate)
Professional Baking (A.A.S.)
The S-8. I find most filings by SGLB to be convoluted (whether intentional or not) and confusing. This one was no exception. Having read it several times I would have to agree with Ted's interpretation. The filing clearly states that the shares are being registered in support of the employee benefit plan. As Ted pointed out the additional shares needed to be made available so that as employees achieved stated milestones or longevity they could be awarded in the future. I don't see anything in the filing that would lead me to believe that they are being made available for sale now in order to raise funds for the company. If the company needed immediate funding I don't believe they would have taken this route. They would have no assurances that the employees would step up to buy any shares. A far more likely scenario would have been a negotiated agreement with an accredited investor to purchase a bulk amount of shares at a negotiated price. I confess to finding the whole thing confusing and may very well be incorrect in my interpretation (which is certain to be pointed out) but that is the way I read the filing.
Damn....we are lucky to have you. Think of how we would simply flounder without your keen insights!!
I hope at some point in time we all get a better understanding of the reasons behind the crazy volumes and the wild price swings. I haven't read an explanation yet that fully explains to me why this has occurred. The announcement last week hardly seemed momentous enough to touch this off....and yet it seemed to trigger the initial movement. Very strange indeed.
Wake me when they sell something.
I'll still be a young buck at the ripe old age of 46. >>>>A good thing too. Time to make alternative plans.
"This is a great opportunity and explains the jump" Surely you are jesting!! It in no way explains the jump. All of a sudden hundreds of new investors clammored to get on board based upon a non-revenue generating contract obtained days before the Christmas holiday. As others have said the gains were due to pure manipulation, or there is a serious takeover bid in he works.
I believe it was one trader who stimulated the market and when the price jumped the retail traders bought and sold to take advantage of the price increase. With the kind of value the stock has experienced up to yesterday it makes no sense that thousands of new investors suddenly became fascinated with SGLB. There were three distinct high volume spikes and I believe that is when the single trader made their move. The other trades were in response to the unusual activity.
I'm beginning to believe that the price movement today has nothing to do with todays news release. I think that either there is another very large shoe to drop (makor reveue announcement) or this is a takeover attempt. I'm assuming there is a single major buyer. Can someone with Level 2 comment on this?
Driftin: I believe that shareholders buying into this froth are going to get burned very badly. Unless there is "real news" to follow this is not going to hold up.
You were not wrong. Give this a day or two and the stock price will be right back where it started. They need revenue and this is not revenue generating.
Exactly. You nailed it.
"sure there is interest in an acquisition:" They could buy them for pocket change today. Why aren't they?? There is no interest.
Driftin: I understand that shareholders would have to vote on an offer that was tendered, but I don't agree with your belief that a majority of shareholders would hold out for a premium offer. It's somewhat unusual for aquiring companies to offer much more than a 20% premium over the existing share price. Were an offer to come in at a 40% premium, in my opinon that would tip the scales toward the acquisition. The key factor in shareholders decision making process will be the company's outlook at the time the offer was made. If that changes dramatically then I think your assumptions are probably correct but if an offer were to come in without a dramatic improvement in outlook I believe even a mildly premium offer would be happily accepted by the majority of shareholders. If there was interest in an acquisition (which I believe there is not) I believe you would see signs of accumulation in these low priced shares. Share trading volume has averaged about 25-30,000 shares a session for the past several months with some days less than 2000 shares traded. It seems clear that current shareholders are simply treading water with no signs of accumulation (even from those who sing the praises the loudest). Time is running short for the company, another dilution, or a drop in share price below a dollar before sales materialize would very likely be fatal.
" All the tireless development and testing has definitely made SGLB the market leader in this space." A market leader with no sales. A market leader that the active promoters on this Board keep assuring us that 2018 is going to be the year that SGLB becomes profitable, etc, etc. How many times have these projections been made now and been proven false. I've been around since 2013 and listened to the same people making the same projections quarter after quarter with the same result. It would be humorous if it wasn't so costly to shareholders. It doesn't seem so hard to understand the disconnect between being the "market leader" and no revenue. Hang in there. 2018 is sure to be the year that changes everything.
I don't know enough about the relationship to have any thoughts at this point.
Silver: What I hear you saying is that SGLB is still an R&D lab, passing itself off as a profit-producing business. I can't find any argument with that other than the fact that they have taken in a great deal of shareholder money and made promises and projections that are not likely to be fulfilled anytime soon, if ever. They have clearly operated as a research facility until the new management team came on board.
If you couple the apparent immaturity of the product with the immaturity of the industry it doesn't seem likely that profitability is on the near-term horizon. As to the "type of people invested in SGLB" we seem to have the "dreamers" and those who initially believed they would receive a reasonable return on their investment.
Of course additive manufacturing will continue to expand it's reach at an excellerated pace, but it's also true that there are more and more examples of larger scale production models in the advanced planning stages and some even operational. I've never bought into the often expressed opinion here that wide-spread, large-scale AM would have to be in place before Printrite would find a niche in the marketplace. Quality assurance is obviously a key component of any AM production model and would be extensively tested before it was relied upon in larger scale production. My point is that this ramp-up is clearly taking place now and Printrite does not seem to be a player.
RR1: I agree that there continues to be some tax loss selling, I also think that a few shareholders are weary of seeing the continuous decline in the share price and are getting out permanently while they can still salvage a few dollars.
I sold the vast majority of my shares three years ago and made a nice profit. I've continued to monitor the company because I had great hopes that there would be a re-entry point when I sensed that they were turning the corner. They are one of the few New Mexican technology companys that are publically traded and I very much wanted them to be successful. Early on I became disillusioned with Mark and disappointed in the Board composition. Today, with Mark back in a technical role, his wife ousted from the payroll, and a high quality Board and CEO in place they seem to have the people problems straightened out. What is obviously lacking is a product that cannot seem to gain any traction in the marketplace. The argument that the industry lacks maturity and therefore is not ready for a sophisticated quality assurance product simply does not wash any longer. The fact that the revenue picture has been so bleak in my opinion can be directly attributed to product issues. I don't pretend to know what those issues might be but the fact that no one is buying is sufficient evidence for me. I'm not in the camp that the situation is hopeless, but if I were to handicap their likely success in the marketplace I'd put the odds at 20% or so. If that makes it "remote" so be it, but that's the way I see it.
"You really think sigma isn't well known within the AM community when they work with just about every branch of the DoD, the largest corporations in the world and have collaborations with multiple major AM companies??? " ......all the more reason to be disappointed in their dismal revenue performance.
The joke appears to be on the shareholders.
I hope that someone else has a better understanding of this than I do. They talk about raising the amount of cash as if the warrants were exercised at $4.00. That clearly isn't going to happen in the absense of news. They could lower the exercise price to induce warrant holders to exercise the warrants but the price would have to be at some discount to the current share price. As I understand it this is not a final version of what they intend, but the whole thing is confusing, at least to me. I'm looking forward to an explanation by someone who has a better grasp than I do.
I've lost track of SGLB's "expectations" that have yet to materialize, but they are a significant number. Know, I know, this time is different.
Penny: Love to hear any impressions you would care to share coming out of your meeting eith Brent. Thank you.
Actually, I can't argue with any of your last THREE posts. That's a bit scary. You must be slipping or I'm going over to the dark side.
NewsUSA is a PR firm.
Surely you don't believe that SGLB shareholders have any control over a buyout offer other than to accept or reject it. If the market thought SGLB was worth 16 million dollars they would have offered it long ago. Clearly there is no interest in a buyout at any price so I don't think you have a great deal to worry about. When/If Printrite proves itself via real market acceptance then you can begin to consider buyout possibilities. Your loading up on shares at this point is speculation on a dramatic turnaround in early 2018. I think you are throwing good money after bad, but different opinions are what makes a market. I WISH YOU LUCK.
My faith is restored....at least enough to hang around. I just won't look at the stock price on a regular basis.
"We anticipate that our revenue will increase in future periods as we seek to further commercialize and expand our market presence for our PrintRite3D(R)-related technologies" I believe they must record this statement so that they can play it back quarter after quarter. I can recall simliar statements as far back as 2014.
New Jericho: I sense that in the longer term you still believe that Willis is going to pull this thing together and make it an attractive buyout candidate. The selling pressure does not appear that it is going to let up for a good long period of time. In your opinion are we going to be faced with a $1.50 price point or perhaps drastically less, and if so are the numbers in q-1 2018 and beyond going to support a resurgence in the stock price? All speculation I know, but I'm sincerely interested in your thoughts. If we are going to continue the downward spiral and you still believe that Willis is going to be able to make this work once the selling pressure relaxes the best strategy for us retail investors (who are overweight here) would seem to be: sell now and wait for a positive sign of the turnaround and buy back on the way up. If I'm missing something please tell me.
I wish I were nearly as happy as they seem to be. Looks like a never-ending continuous party!!. How about ginning up some revenue while your at it!!
That well-worn excuse no longer holds water. Are you still going to be giving the same excuse a year from now? Five years from now?