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I too have completed my due diligence and have read and studied which is why I know that Kidrin and counsel have both stated what the plan is currently and in the future. It seems a bit odd to me that someone would request insight for a topic that is apparent to those who have completed their due diligence.
As for left brain - right brain I am aware of many studies. I am also aware that in reality and in the process of hiring a CEO that is worth his or her salt will always will have these skills.
Me personally you are correct I am left brain predominantly. I do disagree with your link as their is no references cited only conjecture from a novice. It appears to be another misguided site on the net. I would try a library next time for real information. However, if we do use your link which characterizes right brained as responding to hunches, elusiveness, uncertainty, and a lumper you would have chosen correctly as I am none of those things. Congratulations, you are correct not much going on in my right brain.
Thanks for the compliment!!!!!!
I do not know what one "D" represent to you. To me I would say dynamic and distinguished.
If you are invited to the yachting event and then manage to attend perhaps we can meet and toast our good fortune and agree to disagree.
Tradetrak,
I am curious if you have completed any due diligence? If you spend the time to go back thru the posts here and read the one thousand plus pages of legal documents and digested the US CODE regarding patents I believe you could decide for yourself if this is a company you feel comfortable parking money in.
Since you are looking for input regarding risks, potentialities, probabilities I would say there is risk with absolutely everything in life. Potentiality is derived from the facts and the manner in which variables are managed and risk mitigated. Probabilities are nothing more than educated guesses refined and twisted into values of numbers that represent a variable or potential outcome; study Monte Carlo Probabilities as a start.
I am curious about one of your statements, "In my experience, that's a pretty unusual combination." My question is what has been you experience to believe that a CEO would not have business and legal acumen along with vision and in this case tech skills. I am curious as I am a student of human observations and you may be able to enlighten me to something new.
Keith
I too thought this would have settled by now but in the end I will not make the same return if I placed my money in the bank. In the big picture I will come out a winner as all the other longs will. I do disagree with you on the dragging out as long as they want. So we wait until the end of the 2017 for the final words of the USPTO which will not be favorable towards ATVI. Then we can go to District Court where ATVI will be embarrassed; and by the end of 2018 ATVI will be filing an appeal with the US Supreme Court which they will refuse to hear so by 2019 ATVI will have no choice in the capitulation to WDDD.
You mention Susman and Kidrin would not go full on greed. My perspective is for someone to define greed in this case. How do you calculate the damages from specific companies that have willfully and intentionally in effect stolen via infringement from the stockholders of Worlds. The only two jobs a CEO has is to increase share price and always look after fiduciary responsibility to the board and shareholders. I believe that the word "treble" would not be greedy in a final judgment. I also do not feel that 10% royalties of all the alleged sales would be greedy. I would not feel greedy if Susman negotiated a multi billion dollar settlement with ATVI since they will be paying royalties for an additional 15 years. Would any fortune 500 company roll over and give up their library of IP for absolutely no compensation to the shareholders? Would they not protect their property the same as a Grizzly bear protects its cubs?
In fact it is Susman and Kidrin sole job to protect the shareholders and not role over for an insulting low ball figure. It would make no sense for Susman to encourage Kidrin to settle for pennies when billions dollars are available from ATVI alone.
In the event you disagree I would enjoy your perspective or any other persons input that can contribute.
Keith
I believe you are correct. If ATVI is not allowed the extra days after they loose in District Court they will file to the US Supreme Court and use the days as a reason for the appeal to the court. This is another lame duck attempt to prolong the inevitable.
The most enjoyable statement out of this entire case was the attorney for ATVI stating my client will loose billions in this case. Sit back and watch the show. Another modern day Goliath and company is about to be slain. It will begin with ATVI and the remainder will have no other choice but to comply.
I learned many years ago if you follow the money all answers become crystal clear.
It is a big deal in the sense that WDDD may receive all previously denied assertions by the USPTO due to content of the filing of a 524 page appeal and a few recent precedents. The WDDD appeal will not erase what previous USPTO ruling has occurred in which it allowed six items and ATVI did not appeal those six items. If you read the 524 pages you will understand fully what counsel is doing within the limits of the law.
A patent protects property rights, intellectual rights, processes, chemistry formulations, etc. However, there are many rules that come with that process and a patent can be appealed and thrown out only with cause under the guidelines of the law. If someone disagrees there is the appeals process which is what WDDD is doing.
One of the largest problems is ATVI used the game developer as a proxy because they were time barred. The problem is there is a conflict with the rules by ATVI doing that.
If you simply go to the United States Code under Patents, you will be enlightened as to subjects such as USPTO clerical mistakes and how compensation is granted under law. You will also find subjects about being time barred, who can file a dispute as to the validity of a patent, and the process of that dispute process. All of the sentences within the Patent Rights sections are worded in clear English with no ambiguity.
I would suggest a thought for you to keep in mind that the WDDD main attorneys are doing this on contingency....no win no money. The firm handling the USPTO process for WDDD I believe is being paid as work is completed per contract agreement. The principal attorney for WDDD is Max Tribble and I would suggest reading his resume and list of cases. He stands to bring in 40% of billions of dollars potentially up to fifteen years for his firm. I would not get to exercised about the issue. Max Tribble stands to loose more than many of the WDD stock holders have paid for their positions.
I believe it is this clear English that has ATVI trying anything to get out of the inevitable.
If Kidrin is reading this perhaps he can also impart information regarding these concerns.
It is not only the game companies it is also companies like Disney as well that have interactive children's games. Think about all the games that involve NFL, NBA, NHL, Golf, etc. that are interactive. This is not for shooter games exclusively. Think outside the box and add in the facts of the case.
As an example a friend of mine spends $15.00 per month on World of War Craft basic subscription. If you go to the first link below and read the article you will read that this one title has 2 million monthly subscribers at $15.00 per month. That is 360 million annually from one title.
Anyone who wants to know why ATVI has dragged this out ...it is simple. There is BILLIONS of DOLLARS on the line just from this one company and that is not my opinion that is the words of the attorney from ATVI in a Delaware District Court of law in front of Judge Casper which was recorded and available on the internet.
If this makes it thru the USPTO appeal at the end of the year. Judge Casper will be the next stop in Delaware. How much sympathy will a jury give a company (ATVI) with 14 billion in net assets per their numbers with billions of dollars in US revenue every year? Then ask what is in the secret sauce that makes ATVI, EA, and the other gaming companies this successful (look at the second link with names in the US)? If you do not know ask any teenager what makes interactive games so cool. Then ask the teenager what would happen if the games were not interactive.
I challenge everyone to ask themselves is 3 cents, 5 cents, or even 1 dollar per share now worth DOLLARS later with a win. Everyone decide for themselves and yes I have skin in the game.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/55135.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_video_game_publishers
http://investor.activision.com/annual-reports.cfm
I have no problem using P/E and understanding your thoughts. In the end we will see who is closer to the truth either way there is a huge spread from 3 cents to anything over 2p/s
The number was for all US consumer gaming. Not necessarily multi player. The purpose was to ascertain a realistic highest value per share. Specifically if
You are correct WDDD is going after multi player but they also have stated they will be going after other titles.
Keith and the Old Owl,
I completed more research and I was amazed to find that the reported US consumer sales of video games in the US since 1995 was 2,226,000,000. So I used 6% for patent, no treble, subtracted out 40% for lawyers, 35% for taxes, divided by 225 million WDDD shares and ended up with $21 dollars per share.
In my mind if Kidrin desired to negotiate and settle on a 50% discount you would end up with $10.50 per share for the entire US market which would include dozens of titles and companies. If Kidrin does not settle then the USC allows for compensation for the years that the technology was used without paying for it with a maximum of 15 years. If in my last post $3p/s was the calculation for ATVI only after all expenses. If a multiple of 8 were used you have $24p/s.
This stock is trading for 3 cents per share which is laughable but I understand it is the perceived risk involved which should be dispelled by the end of the year. I find it telling that ATVI did not appeal the decision of the six items that WDDD won at the USPTO hearing. It is even more telling that the WDDD attorneys filed a 524 page appeal. Would they spend all that time on 524 pages of substance if there was not anything to talk about?
Keith,
I hope you realize this valuation is from ATVI ONLY.
I completed a new valuation.
Since 2005 to present there has been 22 billion in revenue in the Americas. Six percent for patent revenue of 22 billion is 1.32 billion or 3.96 billion with treble damages. That would leave a valuation of $15.84 per share with 250 million WDDD shares. Divide out 50% for Canada and South America and that would be $7.92 per share gross. After 40% for lawyers you have $4.75 per share. After tax of 35% you net $3.08 per share.
Some people here have said that ATVI is a target for a buy out but I do not know if that is factual. However with ATVI having 753 million shares. ATVI Graham valuation is $15 per share. Intrinsic valuation depending on the inclusive variables the value can be as low as 36 per share and as high as 79 per share based upon today's share price. That would translate into a sale price of ATVI as little as 11 billion dollar and as high as 59 billion.
In my mind if ATVI were to be purchased for that amount of money would I let 3.96 billion get in my way? I do not think so.
You can go to statista.com, gurufocus.com, and the ATVI financials to ascertain the 22 billion, amount of outstanding shares, Graham and Intrinsic Valuations.
Owl..I would not worry about cost. There should be enough money at a yachting event to have many bottles of fine wine and pounds of cavier for those that did not make as much profit as others. Enjoy the benefits.
I think so.
Captart7 since you are targeting a new yacht which is an exquisite ride based upon Yachting World pics. I have been saving a 2008 Lafite Rothschild, Pauillac, for a special occasion along with fresh Beluga Caviar. You provide the Yachting and I will provide the refreshments. Perhaps a few others from this board could join in the celebration.
Based upon what I observed the entire tech sector was hit yesterday from Microsoft, Netflix, ATVI, and many more. There were many talking heads offering there possibilities yesterday as to why this happened. Anyone can research and read the myriad of thoughts. At the end of the day I do not believe it will affect this case in any shape, form, or fashion.
At this time I have not run any new calculations. I do feel that the end result will be much higher than $2.00 per share if nothing more than the updated facts are different from my last calculations ie. Trump is now President and despite the fact that he appears unstable due to TWITTER he owes allegiance to no group unlike former Presidents, Michelle Lee resigned, one opposition attorney left that law firm, WDDD filed a 524 page appeal two weeks ago, ATVI did not oppose those items that WDDD's won with the Patent Board. Finally per the rules that govern the USPTO they must give an answer regarding the 524 page appeal by the end of the 2017.
I will attempt to run new variables and post here in the near future. In the mean time I would encourage all interested parties to GOOGLE Monte Carlo probabilities and complete a separate Monte Carlo and post here for the rest of us to consider.
Patient 2, Jesi Stracham interview May 6, 2017 feeling in legs after two years
The link is 10:38 minutes. She begins speaking at minute 1:24. At minute 9:33 she states she has regained feeling one month ago in legs, is now standing, and hopes to walk by the end of summer 2017.
https://soundcloud.com/user-561702038/carolina-outdoors-may-6-2017-segment-4?utm_source=soundcloud&utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=email
Patient 12 Nick Stockwell and Patient 2 Jordan Fallis article. This is a recent article.
There is a short video of Nick in the bottom right corner of the screen busy with therapy. Jordan remains in a wheel chair. The good news is he is employed and not in a hospital bed for the remainder of his life.
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-best-/2017/05/11/how-tiny-fiber-implant-research-spinal-cord-injuries-neuro-spinal-scaffold/309193001/
Who has filed the class action suits and what is the case numbers?
Patient #2 recent videos she posted.
While I am not a fan recently of management decisions that have caused the stock price to be undervalued. I was very interested and impressed to see the following videos on Facebook. Go to GOOGLE and type in the following, Jesi Stracham Facebook. When you get to her page you will have to scroll down thru her postings. Look for the dates of the videos
April 3, April 7, April 23 @ 8:25 pm, April 28 @ 5:55 pm, May 4 @ 4:15pm.
When you view these Jesi remains in a wheel chair but it beats a hospital bed for the rest of her life as an alternative. If you have never been near paralysis as I have these videos may mean nothing to you. But if you have ever gone thru years of rehab they are a tremendous testimony in my perspective.
In one of the videos Jesi Stracham states that she has been standing for about three weeks. If you pay attention you can see the leg muscles flexing so I do believe these are 100% legitimate.
Of course the price would go down further
If there is no one to begin, start, manage, and complete the shake up. No one will know because management only puts out information when they deem necessary.
Assume someone were to stir things up who has the expertise to put key people in the correct slots? Who would know the rules, politics, and intricacies of the FDA> Who would know the insurance, marketing, and other rules to put a plan together and execute that plan effectively and in a timely fashion?
Why would the federal government not approve it.....for many reasons just like they stopped the last NVIV request a few months back because they wanted complete data from the INSPIRE study. If you have never researched the revolving door and politics of the decision makers at the FDA which works hand in hand with pharma, biotech, and other industries I would encourage you to do so. Should it work this way? Probably not but reality is ugly sometimes.
As for your assertion of 3 to 4 months. NVIV may get the patients in the that time frame but with follow up of six moths, submission to the FDA of the required paperwork and review it will be closer to fourteen months minimum before there is an answer.
Pemmanuel.
The sticking point with INVIVO is that this is still dead money for fourteen more months due to approvals.
In the latest corporate filing they state they cannot manufacture the scaffold on a large scale and that they will have to find another company to do that. Therefore they will loose control of certain aspects.
Also your numbers of patience seem rather generous. What year do you believe they will be able to service thousands of patients
MASSACRE....Schwab has the bid at $2.05.
I cannot understand how anyone can justify with holding data from stockholders since January 2017. Stockholders have been promised for over two years that they would be updated when information came available. I guess PT BARNUM might have been correct after all.
We will just have to agree to disagree on the definition of fact and reality. You believe I have a negative outlook I believe it is a realistic outlook if you complete thorough due diligence. I wish you well.
Pemmuel no need to get upset for being shown the truth and fact. My glasses are not colored as I do not need them 20/20 vision for the past 70 years. I do not define a buy signal, long position, or uptrend in terms of pennies or a quarter as that would be a waste of time; rather I look for incremental value in $10 increments. It is my guess that some here are fine making pennies to buy beer on Saturday night but why buy the beer when you can own the brewery.
Feel free to share more of your insight.
We must be looking at two different charts. The chart I am looking at goes back to October 2010 sourced from NASDAQ and the moves upward that were worth dollars were in September 2011, November 2012, October 2013, September 2014, and January 2016. Maybe you are referring to moves upwards that were worth pennies and not dollars. I would like to know more specifically what moves in May, June, and July you are referring to.
I do not think they are fundamentally different. I did not ignore your point and gave it consideration. No hypocrisy on my part I was merely stating fact. As for seventeen months based upon corporate documents that was seventeen months from December 2016 if I am not mistaken. SO by the end of 2017 the bank account is dry unless they receive financing. I believe they will get financing but it will cost shares which brings me to one of my points. Dilution....if approved they will have 50 mm shares they can sell for financing. SO the existing stock holders will have a decreased valuation.
Your assertion of a 10% dilution and a 100-200% bump in the price could be correct but I doubt that a 10% dilution will be close. Mathematically I cannot make that model work even if I stretch the truth.
As for the cash flow even if all twenty patents are inserted with the Inspire product and a six month follow up is completed by the end of the year. Then add in consideration for the 20 - 40 person review and then 70 days for an approval process you are into the middle of 2018. Then there is the ancillary activities that are needed before marketing begins which will take you into 2019 before there is any cash flow. I just do not see this stock in the same way you do which is ok as we are all entitled to our own perspectives. Feel free to overpay if you choose it is a free country.
Thanks for the clarity of 50mm shares authorized. I must disagree with your casual comment that taking it from 50mm to 100mm is no big deal. Based upon recent statements in SEC filings one possibility to raising the shares to 100mm is for financing since the Invivo bank account will be near empty by the end of the 2017 calendar year. You also said that an eventual dilution of shares is silly. If that is a silly thought then what I interpret is that you are willing to pay a premium for INVIVO if they issue the 100mm shares despite the fact that shares will have doubled and effectively meaning ownership value by the current share holders of INVIVO would be halved.
I am sorry you believe truth is equivalent to FUD comments. I for one enjoy searching thru misguided words and opinions in search of fact no matter where the fact(s) take me.
Regardless if it is a vote or a recite due to technicality the outcome will be an authorized 100 million shares total from the present number of 38 million to be sold,gifted,optioned,etc.
If I am incorrect make me smart and explain how going from 38 million would not dilute after 100 million shares are available.
Dark pools, Swaps, avoidance of reality, hype, etc.
Where do I get dilution from.
Well if you have 38 million outstanding shares now. Then there is another vote to raise the outstanding shares to 100 million that is a dilution.
DILUTION of EQUITY, TWO KEY EMPLOYEES LEFT, and PERFORMANCE CRITERIA NOT MET by 50%.
All the while potentially diluting the shares from 38 million outstanding to 100,000,000 outstanding which is a 62% dilution. This means the stock is at $3.55 today. If you subtract out 62% the stock price it should be selling for $2.20 less than it is posted or $1.35 p/s.
The doctor left and was replaced
The CFO left and was replaced
During the performance reviews that were disclosed in the SEC filing many people only hit 50% of their objectives for their bonuses
The stock has tanked over the past two years
The decision was made to not take the FDA recommendation and the management opted for a white paper study now eight months later they want to resubmit to alter the study
In Jesi Stracham Facebook post, she was patient two she states the following (facebook jesi stracham.com)
Jesi Stracham
April 7 at 4:11pm ·
For the last two years I was told by medical professionals and peers not to get my hopes up because I would never walk again. Ken Bryant assisted in changing my outlook on my future, and for the first time in my life I can say with confidence, I will walk again. It's looking a bit taller ??
#teamJESI
#thisgirlcan
#wheelwithme
The new objective is to get all of the procedures complete in 2017 and submittal and approval in 2018. Isn't that much later than originally stated.
Yet the executives are asking for a pay raise to be voted on in the annual meeting. Are you kidding me. There are executives making extremely high compensation levels yet miss their performance benchmarks.
The executives are asking for more time to complete the study.
While I believe the executives are trying that does not set aside the fact that this is business and not friendship, objectives were missed, dilution is imminent, and the time line has been pushed out yet one more time. This stock is tremendously overpriced.
BigDawg what is your thought regarding time. If we receive a ruling in November 2017 how many appeals and years do you think it will take to settle this?
Do you have a link for your assertion?
Besides a broad negative view and concern with the current administrations ability to keep promises and pass positive legislation there are a few other items at play. Check the SEC filings insider trading is abyssmal.
Then you have Brexit. Goldman Sachs is concerned enough that they are pulling out a least a thousand employees from Great Britain. Many other companies are doing the same thing due to uncertainty.
Here in Europe there is a strong flow of money coming in from Brexit. Albeit that other countries are lobbying to get out of the EU as well. Major uncertainty especially since medical device and bio is a long term venture with plenty of lows full of pitfalls which includes NVIV and the absoluteness that this will not be viable for another eighteen months minimum no matter how many censors want to believe otherwise.
Ronala,
I looked into these links you provided and the sources you cited are the same analyst that currently follow NVIV. That is a no-brainer considering how analysts are paid along with the companies they work for.
Do you happen to have any independent links such as Goldman Sachs, Jeffreys, MacQuarie, Barons, etc. That have no conflict of interest with NVIV?
Thank you for the response. I shall look into those.
Your source??????