Interesting short data from SI link. It seems to indicate that on many days recently half of MNTA volume was shorting related, at least of main exchange volume.

http://regsho.finra.org/regsho-November.html

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26950213

Jon

What if it is both? What if they have signals the limbo is ending? I am sure the last few years does feel like limbo.

Jon

I now agree with you and Peter and the rationalization here looks like some I have seen on certain biotech boards (not as bad as CTIC et al but getting there).

Jon

Estimates up sharply. I have to believe that revenues are now more likely to disappoint than surprise given potentially higher COGS than expected. I had been expecting a 70% pre-tax margin but anything less than 60% could lead to profit taking. I am as long as I want to be with covered calls sold and short puts sold out 20% down and 5% up.

Jon

M-enoxaparin sales of $292 million.

Quite a shocking number to me. I expected good but that is very good. That annualizes out to about $400-500 MM of annual pre-tax to MNTA.

Jon

I was only to a bmi of 28 for much of recent years and even with recent reduction to 26, I am still stuck with statins ( would likely be a problem even with lower weight given family history) and a fatty liver. My stomach condition may be linked. Thank goodness cardio so far in good shape.

Jon

Zip,

I would post your quote with lines if I knew how! On your comment about the targeting of stocks being one target, I would say it and house prices are the only targets they really have, and it is more of a prayer. The malinvestments which come out of such a policy may cause LESS capex than normal as scenario formulations become extreme with the uncertainty. It is no guarantee that real stock prices go up either.

Jon

Looks and sounds right to me - sorry for delay. One of my extreme stomaches took me down during the US morning and early afternoon.

Jon

MNTA is not 50% but 45% and half of MNTA share gets held back against cost-sharing. Margin is probably in the 70s not 80.

Jon

OT Head of Fed Open Market Operations in last few days said something to effect that transmission mechanisms for Fed policy can still work. One of examples was through asset prices being higher than they otherwise would be which would seem to be a direct admission that the Fed is openly targeting stock and housing prices. This is kind of scary stuff to me.

Jon

I stopped following MON as much over last year and was starting to look at it again, but it seems expensive, even after the crash with a forward PE in the mid- to high-teens for mid-teens growth. Is there some potential step-change higher in net at some point in next few years, or is this likely to be a steady grower from the much lower base?

Jon

Don't forget the long term pension obligations of the cities and states too. Some municipalities have 75+% of budgets in key departments going to pensions. Think police, fire, etc.

Jon

Trading airlines has been among my best trading tactic over the years. I minted quite a bit of money simply betting DAL and CAL would stay alive without bankruptcy heading into the downturn a few years back. Option premia were huge and I did very well. I did have to close my eyes and make myself make the trade.

Jon

Some airline pundits are worrying about planned inreases in services by the major airlines. Look at the major PEs -mid single digits. That said, absolutely horrid industry in which to invest other than suppliers and anti-bankruptcy plays when mkt panics in downturns.

Jon

Headline and article are misleading however.

Jon

How does a Board reject a tender offer - a tender offer is generally to the shareholders themselves.

Jon

Patrick Chovanec - used to work for me.

Jon

I sold out? Does that help? If so, I will sell out and take one for the team!

Jon

I have a friend posting on Seeking Alpha on China - he is not paid.

Jon

vRUS?

It might work here because there is no big upside catalyst other than a wildcard Markman result that by itself will catapult the stock. There is no proof of non-approval for teva coming. If there were, that changes dynamic. If mkt starts to accept MNTA will have market to self, all shorts have to do is spread word to blogger journalists that tea approval is imminent. Depressed stock price keeps thugs depressed until too much time goes by and balance sheet is much approved. Wildcards to this are reworked partnership (never say never but unlikely), new partnerships, new filings that become known on new drugs, and Markman.

Jon

I am wrong - even lower than in after market. 16s.

Jon

I think we get $20-21 but I am wild-eyed optimist.

Jon

Not a lawyer either...but he does have to try to insulate his decision from being overturned on appeal.

Jon

I made mistake of buying first time with a 12.50 put hedge in $14s to get sold out by exercising puts 1 week before approval. That cost me 2% of returns. I then sold $20 puts for $1 and change to get in this time in high $18s. Another 2-3%. Ugghhh! At least some other things are working but not last 2 days.

Jon

I gotta say I messed up and flipped long also in last two days partially by not replacing expiring put hedges and then doing so but also adding some leveraged longs for a bounce. MNTA has gotten super costly to my recent performance - would be hitting new highs for year without it but instead it has cost me 5-6% of overall returns.

Everyone has turned negative but put/call was very low the other day. Last three of four instances of such a low put/call (from Monday) had cascades down almost immediately - sort of what we have now.

Jon

Should you remove WX from the list?

Jon

BUT the initial PI in that other case did initially issue even if stayed by a higher court - what would that do to MNTA stock price?

Jon

I think the initial hearing will only be on the merits of the lawsuit and grounds for a temporary injunction - no way they have time to prepare for a full trial with discovery, etc. But I am not a lawyer.

Jon

SNY Lawsuit

I have a question for the lawyers or others who know on the board - what is the expected outcome on the 17th? Am I right in assuming that this is a process with three potential decision dates in it? The first was when the suit was filed and the TRO was denied.

The second is the 17th where there will be a hearing on the preliminary injunction but where the full facts of the case will obviously not be tried - of course the whole thing might be dismissed at this time. So you come out of the 17th with either a preliminary injunction and the trial to come, with no injunction and a trial to come, or no injunction and no trial to come.

The third date would then be the trial itself which could either remove any injunction if one had been given OR reverse the approval (even if no injunction had previously been granted).

And of course appeals have to be factored in also.

If my read is right, then the uncertainty does not go away completely on the 17th unless the suit is thrown out at that point. And both sides still have chances for changes of fortune later on if the suit is allowed to proceed.

Jon

I think excluding big bio is also bad. GILD arguably has same cliff issues, with more near-term growth and similar valuation levels.

Jon

I was following Rocky's lead for a long, long while but got shaken out of the strategy on the volatility around $20 price a few years back and again when stock collapsed. Probably made money net net but those two times killed me!

Jon

Or ctic.

Jon

They've been doing it for years in aerospace - just go look at terms of GE engine contracts.

Jon

I had no idea of this division. In the case of aerospace and defense, it appears to be absurd with airframes on one side and aeronautics and avionics the other. Likewise defense electronics is on one side and prof services the other - most defense electronics firms have both. And having transport opposite airframes and cars.......

Jon

Some would likely clearly prefer more drugs than fewer though given better chance to keep variant mutations from sprouting.

Jon

Don't necessarily judge a stock by the Yahoo board, although over time it has proven right even with more main-line stocks like ELN (which would have been a good stay-away-from; wish I had listened). Some of the real stocks I follow have nonsense over there. DCTH, which looks real to me and in which I have no position but where I checked out the board on the latest news, is another example.

There seems to be a mentality out there right now in ALL small cap stocks to "let's go crush the shorts!" Let's ramp the stock as fast and far as we can go, and even when the inevitable tumble comes, stock is still left at above fair value. Several bios are in that mode now (CTIC, GNVC, EMIS, DCTH probably tomorrow, KERX in my opinion, and others) as well as general stocks like ABK, AIG, and some other sloppy financials and industrials.

Jon

Unless you sell call spreads. Then time works for you. Could marry to puts also.

Jon