Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
My Take on Expected Financials (In-Depth)
(scroll to the bottom if you just want the numbers)
By now, it is apparent that investors are looking forward to MYEC's audited financials. The stock ran like crazy this week from anticipation alone. As the stock runs, investor sentiment is extremely positive, and price predictions are being posted regularly.
It is important to keep in mind that as MYEC's share price rises, it needs to be treated more like a real company and less like a penny stock. This means that fundamental statistics and ratios, such as market cap, EPS, P/E ratio, etc, are becoming more important.
MYEC's current market cap is $198 million (.066 PPS x 3,000,000,000 shares outstanding) or $216.9 million if you account for the after hours trade (.0723 PPS x 3,000,000,000 shares outstanding). This makes MYEC a micro cap stock (market cap between $50-$300mm). If MYEC reaches .10/share it will become a small cap stock. Because MYEC is becoming more of a serious company, the financials will need to support the PPS growth.
MYEC would fall under the category of Business Services right now, and potentially consumer services in the future. The average P/E ratio for the Business Services industry is 29.30 and the average P/E ratio for Consumer Services is 62.10. (http://biz.yahoo.com/p/7conameu.html). Maintaining a good P/E ratio is important so that the stock is not over or under valued.
I ran some basic calculations for a variety of different P/E ratios and stock prices. For those who don't know, P/E ratio is calculated by "Share Price/Earnings per share(EPS)."
Please keep in mind that I do not have any estimates for the net income for 2013. Also, if you would like to account for future growth, just use one of the calculations for a higher PPS. For example, if you believe MYEC will make $50 million this year, than find the PPS and P/E that matches your expectations.
Also, keep in mind that the market may ignore the fundamentals, so these numbers may not matter. That doesn't bother me, but I prefer it when a company's financials support the run.
Here are some basic calculations:
All numbers are calculated based on 3 billion shares outstanding. The numbers are rounded off for the sake of simplicity. Let's go.
To maintain a P/E of 45 with a share price of 0.10/share, MYEC would need an EPS of .0022, meaning the net income for 2013 would need to be $6.6 million dollars. Here is the math:
P/E = PPS/EPS
45 = .10/.0022
EPS = Net Income/ Shares Outstanding
.0022 = $6.6 million / 3 billion outstanding shares
Now, here are a few other figures to ponder:
Using a P/E of 30 as the low end
Using a P/E of 45 as a mid range
Using P/E of 60 as the high end
For a Share Price of .05 (Market Cap = $150 million)
P/E = 30
EPS = .0017
Net Income for 2013 = $5 million
P/E = 45
EPS = .0011
Net Income for 2013 = $3.33 million
P/E = 60
EPS = .0008
Net Income for 2013 = $2.5 million
For a share price of .10 (Market Cap = $300 million)
P/E = 30
EPS = .0033
Net Income for 2013 = $9.9 million
P/E = 45
EPS = .0022
Net Income for 2013 = $6.6 million
P/E = 60
EPS = .0017
Net Income for 2013 = $5 million
For a share price of .15 (Market Cap = $450 million)
P/E = 30
EPS = .005
Net Income for 2013 = $15 million
P/E = 45
EPS = .0033
Net Income for 2013 = $10 million
P/E = 60
EPS = .0025
Net Income for 2013 = $7.5 million
For a share price of .20 (Market Cap = $600 million)
P/E = 30
EPS = .0067
Net Income for 2013 = $20 million
P/E = 45
EPS = .0044
Net Income for 2013 = $13.33 million
P/E = 60
EPS = .0033
Net Income for 2013 = $10 million
For a share price of .25 (Market Cap = $750 million)
P/E = 30
EPS = .0083
Net Income for 2013 = $25 million
P/E = 45
EPS = .0056
Net Income for 2013 = $16.67 million
P/E = 60
EPS = .0042
Net Income for 2013 = $12.5 million
For a share price of .5 (Market Cap = $1.5 billion)
P/E = 30
EPS = .0167
Net Income for 2013 = $50 million
P/E = 45
EPS = .0111
Net Income for 2013 = $33.33 million
P/E = 60
EPS = .0083
Net Income for 2013 = $25 million
For a share price of $1 (Market Cap = $3 billion)
P/E = 30
EPS = .0333
Net Income for 2013 = $100 million
P/E = 45
EPS = .0222
Net Income for 2013 = $66.67 million
P/E = 60
EPS = .0167
Net Income for 2013 = $50 million
Discussion is welcome. If you disagree with me, that is 100% okay. These are just calculations I use when I invest in companies, so they may help some people. I posted them so that when people throw out their price predictions, you can have a good idea of what company fundamentals are needed to support the estimates. I used a wide variety of P/E ratios and share prices to make these calculations as versatile as possible.
This press release reminds me of 2 important things relating to AMMX:
1. They are a great company with consistent profitable deals coming in. Just do the math from the past PRs to see how much business they are doing. AMMX is undervalued: simple as that.
2. AMMX will never really move too much on good news like this. Everyone is waiting on the $270mm deal. This company has millions in revenue and doesn't move while other companies have zero revenue and skyrocket. If the deal comes, we are golden and should see a run. If it doesn't, we will have to wait much longer for AMMX to be properly valued by the markets.
Any estimates on the revenues that will be shown in the financials?
ITNS is up over 300% since they announced the LOI with MYEC. I'm not sure why they are up so much, but maybe they are a better company than we initially thought they were.
It's okay. These are people who would have sold soon anyway. It's better to get them out of the way now, so a run on news will be easier. Plus, some of them may try to buy back in.
It's bad trading, but some good can come of it. Plus, MYEC is prone to HUGE buys, so that could all get taken out really fast.
Fully electronic checks are better than cards or ACH for mobile payments because they are faster, more secure and less costly.
— MyECheck (@MyECheck) March 24, 2014
Order executions can take longer with some brokers. I noticed my etrade orders were taking longer to execute last week when I was buying on the ask. Usually they go through pretty fast with etrade though.
I just bought 50k more shares on the ask, and plan to buy more once I'm sure that this sideways trend will continue. Not sure why the ATDF bidder at .0298 doesn't just up their bid by .0001 to hit the ask though...
Honestly, I expected a dip this morning, but it seems like people are not blindly selling because they know financials are coming. I'm happy with how this is trading today.
Honestly, none of us have any idea as to what the financials will look like. All I know is that if it seems like Ed is trying to make a MYEC comeback. Earlier in 2013, MYEC started reporting positive net incomes. Than in 2014, the PRs were released where Ed retired shares and entered new industries. Ed knows we are all awaiting financials and that they will affect the stock price. Considering Ed is trying to get to .10 in the short term, and much higher in the long term, he knows the financials will need to be impressive. It would make little sense to me if he were to pump MYEC with PR lifeblood for a few weeks just to release mediocre financials. For that reason, combined with the quarter-to-quarter growth in 2013, I believe the financials could be impressive. We'll find out soon enough...
Financials Coming too soon for it to make sense to flip right now.
It seems like the risk here is dropping to .02 like we have in the past, whereas the reward is potentially setting new 52 week highs above .042. Knowing what I know about MYEC, I'll take my chances with that risk/reward ratio. I'd hate to be without shares when the fins are released.
I'll be adding more shares later once I see how this consolidates intraday.
I think it would be best to release them before or over the weekend, as I believe that is what builds the most hype. When Ed did the FB Q and A over the weekend, the stock ran like crazy on monday, whereas midweek PRs didn't have the same effect. Last thing we need is to drop more this week and invite more flippers.
It's too risky to flip right now if you want to get back in IMO, but it depends what your average PPS is. If you bought in the .02s or lower there's really no reason to flip because you could get stuck (I know because I have done this before). Audited financials are due soon as well as other big news that we have heard about through FB. As of now, I trust Ed because every time the stock price takes a hit, he finds a way to revive it. Ideally, we shouldn't go back to the .02s but anything could happen. I think the only reason we hit the .02s recently was that Ed altered his PR pattern and skipped a PR last week, and than we got the PR from ITNS which was nothing special.
I'm glad we spiked because it helped MYEC catch the attention of a lot of people. Sure, we have flippers in now, but we probably have some new longs. We've had some huge 6 figure buys recently which means some solid investors with a lot of capital are interested in MYEC.
Personally, I won't be selling any shares until we cross .04, as I believe that is inevitable. It's just a matter of time IMO. Of course, anything can happen so everyone needs to utilize a strategy that makes them comfortable. Anything in the .02s screams buy to me so I don't mind if we drop again.
That being said, everyone on this board has the power to help us avoid drops. Hitting the ask hard can help us run because flippers get in when the momentum is upward. Now is not the time for bid sitting, especially when most people are doing it to save a few dollars but end up losing more money because bid sitting drives the stock price down.
I don't think the chart matters too much on this one. While the chart looks pretty good, that only matters if people are investing based off charts, which I don't think too many are for MYEC. The only concerning thing is the MACD/signal line bearish crossover. I want to see the MACD cross the signal line in the coming days, which could indicate a bullish reversal. That being said, I don't think its the chart that will move this.
We need positive investor sentiment, which we have. But we also need some buying pressure. MYEC is incredibly volatile and prone to copycat traders. All it takes is one person selling into the bid to bring it down. That being said, all it takes is a few people buying into the ask to have this shoot up. I'm more than happy to hit the ask tomorrow, but only if we have others doing the same. I'm not going to be a MYEC martyr just to push the stock up for a bit and then lose a lot of money.
I was happy to see VNDM on the bid all day, especially at high levels above .039. Whether he was buying or covering, I still think it was a good sign. And it definitely created some good bid support.
There is definitely still room to run on this news. We were up about 26% yesterday and 4% today. We've seen way better runs on less
Good day today. Here are some thoughts:
1. I think we could have past .04 today if it weren't for that etrade seller at .037 trying to unload 2 million shares. It may seem ridiculous to blame one order, but I think it had a larger effect. That wall on the ask caused the stock to trade sideways with low volume for about an hour and a half. This happened right after a dip when we were on the way back up. I think this destroyed some of the positive sentiment that was driving the stock price up. Everyone was more cautious about buying at higher prices after that. I know I was.
2. I hope Ed has a plan to stabilize the PPS this time. If we drop again, like we have after positive PRs in the past, we will be continuing a bad trend. These drops and runs attract flippers, and rightfully so. The positive PRs will mean nothing in the long run if they only boost the stock for a few days and then allow it to drop back to the .02s. I believe in MYEC but the current chart patterns don't attract longs and real investors because they are too volatile. The news was great, but I think we will need another update this week to avoid a drop. There is a lack of buying pressure because so many people are buying and holding, which means they are maxing out their positions and not buying more shares. Ill try to put some more buying pressure on the ask tomorrow. I just hope we don't have a repeat of last week.
This etrade seller must be crazy. Sideways action and low volume for the past hour because of that order. I don't mind people selling, but be smart. Is that too much to ask?
It baffles me that someone can be smart enough to acquire $70,000 worth of shares (.037x2mm), but stupid enough to create a wall on a day we can run. If you can afford $70,000 worth of MYEC, you should be able to afford multiple commissions, which will not only allow the stock to run, but also increase the value of the shares being sold.
But, I'd lose my mind if I got pissed off at every stupid trader in the penny stock markets. These traders are a reality and part of the market environment. We'll get past it.
If you are invested in MYEC, than why are you spreading negativity during market hours? Your questions/concerns are legitimate, but you know they won't be properly addressed right now. So, what are your intentions?
At the end of the day, it's not the company's fundamentals that move the stock and its not the chart patterns. The only thing that truly moves a stock up and down is investor sentiment. When you post anything slightly negative, the positive sentiment takes a hit, which can be reflected in the PPS (not saying that you are to blame for this dip). Considering a good amount of the daily buying and selling is done by iHub members/readers, it is important to maintain a positive sentiment on days when runs are feasible.
Trust me, I wish iHub could be used as a channel to discuss the pros and cons of each company, but most people are not looking to hear anything that conflicts with their views on the stock. Too many people use read iHub and use it as their basis for investing in a company. Just look at my older posts; I have questioned a lot about MYEC's true potential and PRs, but people don't want to hear it. I have learned that there is little value in questioning the company's legitimacy on days when we can run, as you are hurting your own bottom line. Who really cares why it runs as long as you are making money? Pumpers are unrealistic but they support the positive sentiment that drives the price up, so they serve a purpose.
MYEC has a lot of potential based of their business model, but even more potential based on their loyal following. I know companies that are far more undervalued, but the market doesn't care so they don't reach their full potential. Never underestimate the power of investor sentiment.
Rant over.
Hard to say. Either way it's good news. If he is buying it means he thinks it will go up. If he is covering it means he thinks it will go up.
I haven't seen him on the ask for awhile though, so I doubt he is shorting. It's too damn risky to short right now anyway
Agreed. We keep moving into a new intraday range for a bit, moving sideways, spiking, and repeating. With the huge buys coming in, anything can happen right now. I may buy a few hundred thousands shares again today - still holding a lot from yesterday and long term.
VNDM on the ask is a great sign IMO. He's loading up on shares in the .039s and he's definitely not stupid. Everytime VNDM was on the ask yesterday, the price eventually went way above his bid.
We're still up only 15% on great news. So much room to run
Patience...it's still very early. People are watching where this will go. Once we get some strong buying pressure, others will follow and this can run
We're only up 8% today so we have a lot of room to run
I'd hardly call this massive dumping. It's people selling at a price that is 60% higher than yesterday's early morning range. That's expected, as 60% gains are great for most investors.
This is only 6.7 million shares and we are still in a nice range. We definitely still have room to move
This is what happens when we get groups like PSG involved in the stock.
Which is why I was skeptical about buying more shares a few days ago.... (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=98936329)
The only way to stop this drop is by hitting the ask...
It always runs on news. The only time it didn't was on the ITNS news which was released by ITNS and not MYEC
Atleast there is no gap to fill....
Spread the word of the breakout on other boards
Only 64k left now
EDIT: spoke too soon. 164k now
The best part about the run this time is that we have no "gap to fill"
If we gap up tomorrow we will, but that will be a nice problem to have.
That etrade buyer is trying to save $12.50 lol.
Im not sure what everyone is waiting on to buy. I said the same thing when I bought 200000 shares at .0314 half an hour ago. People wait on others to move the price and then buy in when its more expensive. If you buy before others, you have less confirmation of price movement, but you get a much better buy in price. Now seems like the best time to buy IMO.
MYEC just got a contract with a company that manages $180 billion in assets!
Plus, more contracts are on the way. If that doesn't scream buy, idk what does.
Finally iHub posts the news
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=61515394&xref=newsalert
You can wait for other people to buy shares and move the price, in which case you will pay way more money, or you can start hitting the ask and creating an upward momentum that will increase the value of your shares.