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Wow fully invested in one direction. That's a big gamble. Hope it works out for you. Personally, to me the market is behaving like it's consolidating here.
Completely ignorant but consistent with the country moving toward oligarchy more and more.
That article hits the nail right on the head. It's not that nobody cares, it's that corporations and their lobbyists have an endless amount of resources to keep Washington on their side while the American jobs erode.
Right! I wonder whether we get a crazy hyperbolic climb this time before it's all over with.
Very reminiscent of 1999, isn't it?
Nice! Don't get greedy though. In my experience you have to be quick if you want to make profits on the short in this market.
BR
The one thing you can't hide is the fact that overall revenues keep trending down. It's pretty obvious the economy is not expanding.
The markets have definitely hit another top here, that much is obvious from the charts. I think we'll proably see a little more downside with a dip below the 13EMA which will be a good point to load back up long.
The markets have definitely hit another top here, that much is obvious from the charts. I think we'll proably see a little more downside with a dip below the 13EMA which will be a good point to load back up long.
The markets have definitely hit another top here, that much is obvious from the charts. I think we'll proably see a little more downside with a dip below the 13EMA which will be a good point to load back up long.
Well put, this is all one needs to know in order to make money in this market.
Hopefully he comes out with more of that ridicules taper talk so we can short this market now that it's overbought and buy back in with longs later.
This is my thinking as well. Any more talks of tapering will just be another buying opportunity. The market panics, and as soon as it realizes it's not going to happen any time soon goes on to new highs.
Haha I thought the top was in back in May and that the June selloff would be much bigger than it was. I didn't expect new highs til maybe fall. So don't look at me for the answers!
My point was it's never easy to pick a top nor has been fed or no fed.
Yes my short positions were a trade. I really expected some more downside at first, but once it was clear the sell-off was just another "Oh my gosh the fed is going to taper" sparked sell-offs I got out quick, took some nice profits and added more long positions. Today though I sold all of my C on the pop.
How is it any more difficult to time the collapse now then it was in 2000? I recall there were many, many predictions of a crash in 1998, and 1999. In fact if you recall going into October 1998 everyone believed the sky was falling and we saw a major one day reversal I believe somewhere around Oct 8th. No was able to time that any more than the March peak. In fact, I would argue, from a trading standpoint, you have a much more favorable and predictable environment now exactly because of the fed backstop.
if your interest is only for short term gain at the expense of long term pain then this is the place to be
You're debating philosophy over practicality. How you invest in your market and what your thoughts are over fiscal and monetary policy are unrelated. Choosing to not participate in the market will not change anything. And just because one chooses to trade with the current market direction does not mean they want or are creating the long term pain.
What difference does it matter what you call it? Did 1929 not end badly? How about 1987, 1989, 2000, and 2007? There have always been crashes and always will be. The market has never been free of risk of having a crash. Some of you guys get too emotional and wrapped up in ideology on "how things ought to be". Yes, it will end badly just like it always does. But it's no more a reason this time around not to play the upside while the whiskey is flowing than it was in the past.
jonnytrade. If one's goal is to make money in the market, what difference does it really make what factors are contributing to its movement? It's all a game anyway and always has been. Why complain if the variables have changed. Just follow the new variables. I just don't get it.
Well historically when rates go up money comes out of stock also and get's parked in money markets, CDs etc. But in this environment, who knows?
Just wondering what are you basing your thoughts on that the U.S. will be in a recession soon? The numbers are not showing that. At least not for the remainder of the year or the beginning of 2014. Slow growth yes, recession no.
And I see you haven't changed from your old cantankerous self. I'm doing quite well and have made a killing off the market in the past few year which has nothing to do with the future economic growth.
Why do you feel like you need to lower yourself to personal attacks? It doesn't make your case when you argue itlike a 10 year old. You're one weird dude.
cheif I agree with ya that in the end all that matters is the market action...if your goal is to make money. It makes no difference why. But don't kid yourself, the Fed's actions have directly contributed to both the equities and bond markets movements. There is no boom on the horizon. That is pure fantasy.
Just a knee jerk reaction. In reality 188,000 is nowhere near enough for the fed to consider tapering.
OK, so how does ECB QE make a difference in all this as to whether or not the U.S. markets continue upwards to new highs or not?
No, they are not. Yet the market has moved upwards for years. If you need things to kep improving before you can put on a long trade, that's fine and dandy, but that has nothing to do with whether the market will continue upward or not. Which was my original question to HD. Why do we need ECB QE to stop the U.S. correction.
My point is that things were worse when everyone was running around screaming like a lunatic about Italy and yet the market moved upward with the wave of Bernanke's magic wand despite that. I'll ask again, what is really different now that QE will not overcome—today?
We've discussed this many times...and I agree with you...that the day of reckoning will come. What I have issue with is that you have been saying that day is "today" for the last several years. It will come when it comes and no sooner.
BTW, where are italian bond rates now compared to a year ago?
jumanji, none of this is new!! Eurozone and China problems have been in the forefront of the financial media for years. Do you remember the PIGS? Here's an article about the China real estate bubble from over one year ago!
http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/24/news/economy/china_real_estate/index.htm
As long as the U.S. Fed prints, it's peaches and cream for the U.S. markets.
Just curious on your thinking, but why do the U.S. markets need ECB QE to continue upwards? Nothing has changed in the U.S. The fed continues it's 85bil/month QE. This correction was ignited by fear of ending that. Now Dudley comes out and says QE may increase if the jobs market doesn't improve. I'm inclined to think that we have seen a bottom to this correction. It may not make any new highs for a while and will probably become a trader's market. That's my view at least.
For Rivers, Funny Fed president Dudley just came out and said QE could increase if the jobs market doesn't improve.
As I mentioned, it really doesn't matter what the economy is doing. The Fed's dual mandate stipulates they must 1) keep inflation reasonable and 2) Maintain low unemployment. The problem is unemployment will never be good until globalization reaches some sort of equilibrium. Thus QE will continue forever no matter how good the corporate economy is!!! Use all jawboning about tapering QE to buy the dip on the market's reaction!
You're probably right. I took my profits this morning on my trading longs. Probably a little early, but the conservative approach has been working for me.
Nice job. I'm still holding my trading longs...I think we can squeeze out at least another day of upside. Most likely will buy back some SDS and QID tomorrow if we can get an equivalent bounce to today.
Yep, the bounce continues and despite the reduction in GDP numbers. It's very clear the market does not care about the economy. The only thing that matters is liquidity. I'm still holding my trading longs at least until some of the major indices starting hitting their 13EMAs.
Since when has the fed cared if there was too much froth in stocks? That will have nothing to do with whether they taper QE. Personally I think that every month they try to talk the markets down with their hawkish threats but in reality they have no intention of stopping QE. The job market is not strong enough and that is part of their dual mandate.
Rivers I agree with ya. The numbers do look better. Housing is better, GDP getting better. All good things for companies and stocks. However, the jobs, IMO, are not really getting better. New jobs are barely keeping up and the ones that are created are lower pay/quality. It's all neither here nor there though, right? It's obvious from the way the stock market behaves that the number one priority is fed policy and not the economy.
It's probably due for a bounce but that chart looks horrible short and long term. And there's no dividend to put a floor in the price!
I'm not impressed with this bounce or the market action. Many stocks are struggling today, and I tend to agree with you. I bought MNST and BKCC last week on the dip and DRI and LLY yesterday. Not much happening with those. I just waiting for the hammer to drop and the sell-off to continue. On the other hand, I keep asking myself what is any different this time than any of the other times to BTFD and make money? This sell-off was again sparked by fed speak which we've seen many times before in the past and then followed by a resumption of buying.