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SS: I am with you that it does seem hard to believe that they would accept the write-down of the debt, but it does imply at least to me that they did.
The same goes for ANI who waived the first $5MM in royalties, but it appears that they did.
It is also worth noting that if Zaig exchanged all B shares, none were sold.
SS: Please explain what is meant by "New Visual also issued to ZAiQ a promissory note in the principal amount of $2,392,000, which will be reduced to a maximum amount of $797,333 by April 2006, subject to certain prepayment provisions."
I realize that this could be just spin on the part of NV, but reads to me as if the debt is reduced to $797,333 in 2006 without paying down the debt - thus the savings that were reported.
Spoke:
You are correct on speed. I went back and re-read your post.
I also see the part about home networking, but they do make the claim of "electric grids" at maximum distances. Though exact distances are not offered.
I do see your point that ANI is not marketed as a broadband solution at high speeds.
Problem We Solve
Our technology alleviates the expensive, complex and time consuming problem of running wire by allowing data networks to operate in the same reliable fashion, at the same or higher bandwidths, over existing wiring infrastructure such as national electric grids, on-premises powerlines and other copper media, at maximum distances. This makes it feasible for users to leverage existing wiring to establish primary, supplementary, complimentary and redundant network communications.
Spoke:
From the Adaptive Site:
This seems to contradict part of your theory on speed and what powerstream is meant to accomplish.
PowerStream™
High Speed Multimedia Powerline Networking
20 Mbps Raw Speed, 5 Mbps Payload Throughput
Technical Papers
PowerStream™ Technology Overview (pdf)
White Paper: The Powerline As The High-Speed Backbone Of A Home Network (pdf)
PowerStream™ FAQs (pdf)
The Challenge
The requirements for streaming audio, video and telephony over the powerline heavily determine the technology approach to network communications in terms of speed, connectivity and QoS to maintain constant streams under the most demanding situations. The challenge is to overcome the hostile powerline environment to deliver:
continuous high speeds for multimedia applications
support for multicast and broadcast with low latency
provisioning of bandwidth and prioritization of the network for quality audio, video and voice transmission
multiple applications streaming to multiple nodes simultaneously
connectivity virtually everywhere without loss of throughput
support for a large number of nodes
low cost of commercialization
ease of integration into devices
compliance with FCC regulations
The Result
Powerstream™ provides for the optimization of these requirements providing for robust multimedia communications and is the first and only product to properly satisfy these requirements--with comfort and room to spare.
Powerstream™ technology demonstrating simultaneous file transfer, video and audio streams over the powerline with steady prioritization of multimedia using Chariot software by NetIQ
The Solution
Powerstream™ is a unique and altogether better approach utilizing powerline-optimized wideband spread-spectrum modulation, instantaneous "on-the-fly" digital adaptive equalization, rapid synchronization and error-control coding and powerline optimized token passing protocols. The foundation of this approach is digital equalization permitting dynamic adaptation to the inconsistencies of the powerline. Integrated QoS insures proper handling of high-speed multimedia including multicast and broadcast.
Specifications (Final Silicon)
Silicon (ASIC) Configuration
Two-Chip
Digital Powerline Signal Processor
Analog Front End (AFE)
Speed
20 Mbps Raw
5 Mbps Throughput
Modulation
Wideband (5 - 35 MHz)
Interfaces
USB Version 1.1
Parallel dual port RAM at microprocessor
Software Compatibility
NDIS 4
NDIS 5
Windows 98
Windows 2000
Linux
Other Compatibility
Multicast and Broadcast for UPnP
Communications Protocol Transport
(In OSI terms, Layer 1--physical & Layer 2--data link: link and MAC. IP is Layer 3 and TCP is Layer 4.)
Any protocol that is 802.3 encapsulated (Ethernet).
TCP/IP point-to-point
UDP multi-point (broadcast)
BER
< 1 x 10 -9
Number of Nodes
Same as Ethernet, dependent on available bandwidth and number of nodes
Latency
Latency < 10 milliseconds
Operating Distance
10,000 sq. ft.
Power Requirements
+5V
Operating Temperature
0-70°C
FCC Compliance
Part 15
Spoke -
I am in agreement with your theory that something must be wrong.
While my technical knowledge is extremely limited, I would guess that powerlines due to noise would be more difficult than phone. Power and phone lines otherwise should be about the same (both copper). Perhaps ANI can not make Power Stream work for DSL, but somebody else can?
Do you believe that nobody can make this work? Why?
EW: Yes must be true that ANI failed - was easy to assume since no FPGA. But, we have no idea whether HelloSoft will succeed. One failure doesn't necessarily necessitate another.
Isn't it good that NV will get the $5M back if there ever is revenue?
Spoke:
I see nothing which indicates that Hellosoft received $90,000 cash from NV. The filing stated restricted shares with cash upon completion of milestones.
Also, your statement about Embarq having nothing to do with local area or wide area networks. Don't you need the last mile to enable the networks?
not certain why any if this matters. If the tech exists and works or will work then great if not the reverse is true. The movie appears to have been a mistake and waste anyway you look at it.
Groove: information on the suit is in an SEC filing.
The last filing did contain one promising paragraph buried in the 100 pages of gloom - they achieved 100 Mbps during customer trials...
If the company had money - things might be different today.
Spoke - the funding did not give up 20% of the company- it was more like 17- less if you add in the preferred shares.
I do concur though on your other comments. The poison pill means nothing- as well as the August date.
We continue to march toward zero per share.
Spoke - in the past, we compared Ikanos VDSL results to NV. Your conclusion was that NV used 24 gauge wire. I used a reduction factor of 10% and still (in my opinion) the numbers point to NV. I do concur that Ikanos is in a much better place than NV because they have working product. The NV tech, in theory, has to have value if it works, but that remains to be the question.
Spoke - at this point, investing anymore time or money into this company to provide "some evidence" is a complete waste of time. My point is and still is that you are very creative at interpreting other company's performance results. But, in saying that, NV's claims are just words on paper without any idea of whether the product will ever work.
If we ever have working product- and other others do not improve their performance- there will be a competitive advantage.
These are a lot of ifs - and I do not hold much hope.
Spoke - I am pretty much ready to agree with you that NV is not worth much, but... I have in the past researched your assertion about other companies exceeding the specs. and found that is unlikely the case. But, in saying that Ikanos and others are certainly in a much better place because they have working products that have been verified. They are more than just words on press releases.
Your sales number is also way off - if we ever have $670M in sales, the Market Cap would far exceed what you have stated, but if we ever obtain the first $ from chip sales, that would be a start.
Elder: But would you run 100,000 chips before knowing if the first few work? Would end-users deploy in volume without testing a few units.
I still think the company should clarify what is meant by Beta.
I do not have much hope, but it should be explained.
Youngproff2: it is impossible to know what the company means by "Beta" - NV should clarify. If Beta = an ASIC, then the timeline appears to be unchanged. For most products, Beta testing is done on working product.
Thank you - was wondering... then does not look good.
Spoke -
Doesn't Beta normally refer to the first generation of a product that is then tested for production?
Does the filing really mean we will not have FPGA for 1.5 years.
This is very unclear to me.
Spoke, you stated before that NV technical advisers were top tier people. At least on paper, if they are actually involved.
Again not to defend the company, but failed milestones happen with almost every new technology. CDMA, for example, had years of delays.
The filing only included up to 4/30 - didn't the DVD enter the market after that...
The true problem is that we have no idea what is happening, good or bad, other than they have reduced the amount required to complete the chip - which can be interpreted as progress.
But, in the end, the low share price tells the story today and does not provide much hope.
Bill -
Can't the 2nd million can be pursued with a separate filing? The 10Q stated that it could not be included with the existing filing. Not that it could not be pursued.
Concur -
Combined salaries appear to be $33,500 per month. The first million went to re-pay previous debt.
I am frustrated as the rest that the funds did not go to the tech...and is not a good sign.
If things were good, they could at least re-pay debt with additional shares and use the funds for the tech.
Spoke wasn't the net 57% after they re-paid some debt. While I am not defending the company and believe that it is unwise to purchase additional shares - what you're saying seems to be more of an assumption that all future funds will only net 57%.
"The Company anticipates that it will file at a later date a subsequent registration statement in respect of the shares underlying the Debentures issued in April."
Isn't this the 2nd million?
Is anyone qualified to decipher this??
Austin the filings never state that the tech "works" - they speak of developing technology with numerous risk factors - that in reality must exist.
No, not that I could tell.
For what it is worth, they only had ~20 new releases in a high visibility section to aisle traffic and SIL was one of the movies.
If you consider how many films are made each year, to even have this on the shelf at Costco is some type of minor success.
While at Costco this weekend, I noticed that they have over 500 copies of SIL - while watching the display for 5 minutes, 3 copies, by 3 separate people were put into shopping carts. I almost purchased myself, but couldn't bring myself to invest more money. It is possible SIL is providing some funds.
While I think your thought is unlikely, anything is possible because NV is not keeping us informed.
NV is likely still attempting to make the tech work. Adaptive does appear to be a technically sound company - given more $ and who knows how many years, this might fly.
Spoke - I noticed that as well. One can only assume that there are no "important" developments such as a completed FPGA or Financing to take this to the next level.
But, the NV technology should be worth some money which is the only reason why we are not trading at .01. I bet much larger companies have spent hundreds of millions to attempt to achieve speeds and distances < than NV reported.
Venice -
In my opinion, WiMax is not a threat to VDSL. The true test for VDSL is whether it is adopted in the US - (as in Asia).
Another true test (of course) is whether NV will ever achieve FPGA or production.
More questions than answers at this point.
Chipwa1 - wasn't the original "technology" nothing more than a proof of concept theory on paper.
I also remember reading the first research report (which I can only assume was written based on information from B&S), which stated that it was unlikely the tech would work in the real world because of old, degraded phone wire, bridges and taps.
This appeared to be a long shot from the start..., but worth the risk only because of the potential that the tech might someday work.
Spoke - if they paid in full for the FPGA, why would they need more money to complete? If they ran into problems, is it customary for Adaptive to charge more?
Of course, even if they complete the FPGA, where is the money for the ASIC going to come from?
I suppose the movie is generating something, but who knows how much.
17% of the company vs. 33% is the actual number they gave away - still NOT good.
In December 2003, the Company completed a private placement to certain private and institutional investors of $1 million in principal amount of its three year 7% Convertible Debentures (the "Debentures") and signed commitments to place an additional $1 million of such Debentures (the "Additional Debentures") when the Company's registration statement (the "Registration Statement") covering the Common Stock underlying the debentures, filed on February 11, 2004, is declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In connection with the issuance of the Debentures, the Company issued three-year warrants to purchase up to 6,666,667 shares of the Company's Common Stock and upon, issuance of the Additional Debentures following the effectiveness of the Registration Statement, will issue warrants for an additional 6,666,667 shares of Common Stock, in each case at a per share exercise price of $0.25 (the "Warrants"); provided that the exercise period may be reduced under certain conditions (primarily relating to the effectiveness of the Registration Statement and the closing bid price of the Common Stock exceeding $1.00 for each of 20 consecutive trading days). See Note 6, "Convertible Debentures." The Investors are obligated to purchase the Additional Debentures within five days after the effectiveness of the Registration Statement. The Company received net proceeds of $584,000(after deducting approximately $416,000 in respect of the repayment of the principal and accrued interest on the Convertible Debenture due in April 2004 and offering related fees and commissions).
MWL - "just needs some monies" seems like a major issue. Lack of funds is the major reason why most companies fail.
I am holding out some hope that the NV tech is still better than Ikanos- thus is worth some money to the world.
Spoke, you may be right about all of this. Who knows.
Do you really think there is no chance for NV to bring the tech to market?
I'll take a stab at this...
It is possible that funding is hard to come by because NV is already public with a hefty share count.
Ikanos (being private with institutional investors), is likely more palletable for institutional investors.
Ikanos (at least on paper) appears to be more seasoned, with the right industry connections and management.
In the end, doesn't mean the smaller, less seasoned company, can not squeak this out.
If the tech happens to work, business will follow.
MWL I hope you are right.
The claims do appear to be faster than Ikanos if there ever is a working product.
Who knows what is really going on here. And, certainly has been a long silent wait.
I understand why WHP is frustrated.
I concur that there is no hard proof that the tech will be completed - other than money paid to Adaptive for development fees.
I also agree that for the moment, Ikanos is in the lead spot (with working, real world products). NV has superior claims for most applications.
I am just pointing out that there is still a glimmer of hope - or maybe just trying to convince myself.
I concur with you at 1500', but can not see any evidence for all other distances that Ikanos is superior. Is does appear that NV has superior claims - albeit no products.
If a product is released, NV has the potential to capture the market between 2500' and 6500' (which is likely the majority of the business).