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$VXN out of Upper BB.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VXN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p54341570140
El Crapo, looks like a H+S pattern has formed on the 5min QQQQ charts targeting 44.61. That's about ~1812 on NDX.
Gleno, you're leaving now that QQQQ is going up? LOL... Have fun at the course.
Ollie, yeah I get your point. We're in a downtrend on the interim-term. This is just a ST (I usually hold it 1-2 days) countertrend-trade for me. 1/2 my Interim term account is on short (which I tend to hold 2-4 weeks) and the rest is in cash.
Most of the people here seem to hold trades for a couple hours to a day. So I tend not to try and talk about anything longer than 2 days.
In retrospect I should've honored the prevailing trend and short the bounces. I need to stop doing that on the ST trades.
Bullish falling wedge. Courtesy of BlissBull. Too busy right now to make and upload a chart and Blissbull summed up the same thoughts. This appears to be a 5-day 10min chart.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31906633
Gleno, I wasn't expecting a drop from 1850 to 1825 so quickly. I should've been paying more attention to that 5 min slimjim on the QQQQs that started this morning and sold for breakeven. Also still holding QLD.
Foot, yeah I agree, I should be shorting the bounces as my renko chart says the trend is down for the Interim term. I've got my sell button ready for this long.
We've bounced off the bottom price channel twice. So I am doing the hope/please please indicator that we don't knife right on through and retest the July bottom this week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89522061136
Strange, the charts won't post. I've added the links.
But I don't understand with such a down day we have 35 new highs and the $NAMO barely budged:
$NAHGH
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHGH&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06494606141
$NAMO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06494606141
Foot, strange. NAMO barely down -1.67, and we have 35 new highs?
Looking for a ST bounce and joined the Gleno camp on the QQQQs/QLD. Also, QQQQ/QLD is out of the bottom BB, and resting on the uptrend line from July 15 bottom.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31884088
Foot, yeah I've revised my $GOLD target to about 650 for some support. I'm not touching gold until I see the $USD rollover.
$USD just chugging away, just broke 78 and can hit 80 and possibly go to 81 before a reversal. I am surprised to see Yen and USD both up today. Someone is wrong. I think with the world going into a recession/slow down as well, Europe, Australia, Japan, etc is going to start cutting rates. US can't afford to cut anymore even with inflation slowly abating.
Gleno, I just joined you and rebought some QLDs. We've hit the bottom of the Downtrend Channel on the daily charts and tagged the bottom BB. It looks like we have good support around the 1850 area and we just tagged the green uptrend line from the july 15 bottom. I'm expecting a small bounce between today and tomorrow morning and more down to retest the July lows.
Gleno... Good call, congrats. Looks like they just about closed that gap from the morning. Wish I took a stab with the short signal. But just wasn't sure and I had to go to work after I sold QLD; so I didn't want to open another position. (Some days I get to telecommute/work from home, today wasn't one of those days.)
Not, shorting yet. Just sitting and waiting right now. Just sold my QLDs for +2.5 from Friday.
We are about to tag that upper $NDX downtrend channel on the 60min charts. I'm waiting to see if we break through or reverse.
OT Foot, make sure you get the ultra clear display panel for LCD if you go that route compared to the regular matte LCD. There is a big difference in color and vibrancy. Just go to any store and ask for a side to side comparison when viewing an HD feed and the ultra clear will jump out at you or may be its like you're actually in the tv set. LOL...
(EDIT Al Gore would be proud of you. Plasma uses on average 2X more Electricity than LCD, and creates more heat!)
The contrast ratio has improved on LCDs and viewing angles in the past year to the point that it is very close on par with Plasmas. (Especially the $4K+ LCDs). Also another final thought, because plasma TVs are gas based if you live @ I believe 6K feet or higher it is not recommened, ie- Tahoe or Aspen. The plasma gas can get f'ed up at high altitude.
Yeah today is just plain nasty for bulls but great for bears, so I will definitely not hold QLD overnight. But we are also at the 1875 support line on the 50dma for the daily and as Be always says: "I have my finger on the trigger" if we break ~1875ish.
Nice Gleno... BTW - CCI on the 5min using NERS setting is @ -305, a HFE possibility so I'm going to take a stab at this tradable bounce w/ QLD. Also we are around the Tuesday's lows. But, this could also be one of those -60 pt down $COMPQ days as well.
Trend1, that is an interesting chart. What exactly is the 10d of? (% SPX stocks above the 10dma?) Is there a stockchart symbol? TIA
$SPX 10d indicating a short-term top. I can't find a symbol for the 10d on stockcharts.
From Trend1:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31810459
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31815474
Gleno, If the gap fill occurs then the $NDX will break out of the declining price channel. Right now the GAP is acting as pretty good resistance, as well as the upper downtrend line.
Yeah, the Institutional Index worries me. This last up move is not like the March Rampo where the Institutional Index went up significantly. $XII looks like a bearish flag.
Yeah, I definitely see the downtrend channel on the 30 and 60min chart. But, the C+H pattern on the daily $NDX is still possible so long as we do not go below $NDX 1867. Below that line all bets are off and we will most likely retest the July lows. I am still in cash so I will wait and be patient this time in order to see which way we break.
Gleno, the QQQQ Daily Renko hasn't reversed yet. We need a daily closing of 46.40 to print that red brick and get a reversal signal. We've gone past 46.40 intra-day but that doesn't count on this system.
Gleno, I think I will wait til next week to get in the swing of things and just catch up. I just moved, things are all over the place and I finally unpacked and setup my computer/desk. But I may take a short stab (QID) if we hit the $NDX ~1920 area. (The projected move of this 15min Inv. H+S).
Foot, possible $NDX Inverse H+S on the 15min chart targeting 1922 which is also the redline acting as rez and filling the gap from Monday's drop.
OT Gleno, just got back to Seattle @ 2 PM. I also just moved out of downtown Seattle to the westside. My legs felt and still feels broken from the race so instead of lifting with my legs moving all my furniture I was lifting with my back. Now that feels broken too. Gotta a lot of charts to look at now and get back in the swing of things. I just got my internet connection turned on this morning at the new place 15 mins ago.
Gleno, it's still to early to tell whether the C+H will pan out. We need to things to happen. 1) Break out of handle, aka, the falling bullish wedge which is above ~1910 and 2) $NDX would need to break out of the ~1973 rez to confirm the C+H breakout. So right now we are in no man's land between the 1875-1900 area.
I think we'll grind around the 1875-1900 level today and tomorrow and then we'll find out next week.
QQQQ $7 would be a nice move if we break out of the C+H for trend traders on the long side, but if we break below 1875 or 46.40 on the Renko QQQQ Daily charts and retest the July lows that would be a nice move too. (I sound like neutral man.)
Yup... Looks that way. But is the Yen really in a new uptrend? Right now it is just a tradeable bounce up to around ~93 along with the tradable bounce in Gold, Oil and Natgas. We need to break above this daily downtrend line on the Yen to hold commodity longs as you would say over night.
Daily Renko on QQQQ is still green, needs to close end of day below $46.40 for a trend reversal and to print a red brick.
Decided to wait until after rush hour to leave. No sense sitting in traffic while I could be sitting in my comfy chair watching the markets.
BTW - Possible C+H on $NDX but we have to see if there is a break out of the bullish falling wedge. If we break to the upside out of the bullish falling wedge, there is a possibility of the $NDX moving to the target measured move of 2186. The key is to wait and watch for a break up since we are in no man's land. A break down below 1875 and the cup and handle formation is invalidated because the handle will be too long for this pattern to be accurately called a cup and handle and because major support is broken which means a retest of the July lows.
OT - Hehe.... My wife gets mad at me when I poo-tend too. I say the same thing. Good fertilizer. Gotta get going.
Yup... Dig is doing well. Sold too early today. Thought it'd back off at $84.
I'll have to try to get back in on a pull back cause it can possibly go all the way back to 98.
Another thing to look at is $NATGAS. I was waiting for $34-$36 on UNG but it may not go that low as UNG has broken out of the downtrend line/bullish falling wedge.
Bullish falling Wedge breakout.
$NDX, MID, RUT all showing spinning tops. Spinning tops indicate indecision between bulls/bears (a tug of war). Note, that $NDX and $MID are both above the 200dma and both have 50/200dma crosses which still favors the bulls on the $NDX/$RUT but barely, as both are about to go neutral with the recent retrace.
The Institutional chart is up today after the recent sell off. But as you can see and as Gleno has been saying: "Not much participation from the major institutions." Compare Mid-July 08 bottom to the March 08 bottom and you can see a rising bearish wedge forming on the Institutional charts.
Better to wait in cash and to see which way we break.
OT - Gleno, that's cool. I doubt you'll hit traffic. The race should end Saturday evening. Plus it's at seaside so it may not be where you are going.
In 100% cash and out of all my QLD positions.
Sold my 1/4 short-term QLD position during the early ramp this morning, and sold the 1/2 interim-term QLD position using the Renko QLD 1.75pt/brick system that I have been holding since mid-july just minutes before the close today because it looked like we were going to close below 78.75 today. (No magic between 4 PM-4:15 PM like yesterday).
On my next entry whether long/short I am going to use the QQQQ as a proxy in order to enter QLD or QID trades.
Been busy at work and leaving early tomorrow morning for Portland so I can hangout and do the Mt Hood to Coast Run from Friday to Saturday. Have a good weekend everyone.
DIG, breakout of the downtrend line, but within a horizontal trading range. Could go back down to $76 for another retest after hitting $85 or could break above the upper Horizontal Resistance line. I sold out this morning a bit too early at $83.15, but made over $4.15 on the trade.
LOL Gleno... That is true I think you mentioned that before to use QQQQ, SPY, or MDY to trade the 2x.
They parked QLD at 78.80 @ 16:15 EST, .05 above the needed closing price in order for a red brick to show. We should see the red brick disappear in 15 more mins cause of the 15min delay. They also hit my $NDX 1900 target today. I'm not going to post targets anymore or my thoughts as I think the boyz are watching everywhere. (just kidding)
NM, for the previous Renko chart that I put up, yes closing price dictates red brick, no brick or another green brick. So for instance if we magically move back up above 78.75 before the close today you will notice the red brick has disappeared and no new brick has been printed.
You can set Renko charts to use high/low instead of closing price, but high/low gives you even more whip at 1.75pts/brick size. (I can probably get it to be less whip, by increasing the brick size to 3 or 3.25. But I use the Renko Closing daily charts for simple trend trading on a 1/3 of my portfolio. So I like to keep it simple and stupid.)
That is true. It is oversold and can stay that way. If we close below 78.75 per renko, I will be out the rest of the 1/2 renko QLD trade that I was in since the beginning of renko, green brick print. (I use closing prices to determine buy/sell, so the sell order will be next business day.)
But will hold my 1/4 ST QLD position and figure out what to do tonight since I'm pretty busy right now at work.
BTW - QQQQ Renko will show a red brick around 46.40. On my next renko trade I think I will use the QQQQ Renko chart to determine buy/sell trades as it has less whip since it is 1X and less volatile than QLD. Notice the 4 whips in QLD from March to June and 1 whip in QQQQ.
3 New Nasdaq highs today. Hmm... Last bounces were around 5,6, and 9.
Foot, I'm still a bit cautious on Gold, at first I was thinking of getting in DGP when $GOLD was at ~775, but $USD is still in an uptrend although near or at resistance. I'd like to see $USD move down more a bit more in order to confirm that this isn't a bull trap in Gold.