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Allana Potash: PDAC 2015 Companies To Watch
FA speaks
What you see after that Cheeky? Same as Paradigm Capital analysts? 1,45$ ?
IMO BNP Paribas is financial advisor
Here they come. That attempt is going to be failure :)
I have shared your opinion before Yara talks announced. It looks like SP is well supported by investors optimistic view on nearest future. Such low volume on slight drift down is indicative enough
GL to all longs
A company-run program in which participating employees can purchase company shares at a discounted price. Employees contribute to the plan through payroll deductions, which build up between the offering date and the purchase date. At the purchase date, the company uses the accumulated funds to purchase shares in the company on behalf of the participating employees. The amount of the discount depends on the specific plan but can be as much as 15% lower than the market price.
It was clearly stated in my post how shares were bought.
To explain why I have stated 0.42 as resistance level
11 insiders purchased Allana stock from March 31st to April 1st 2014
The stock was sold by no insiders
Nine of these 11 insiders increased their holdings by more than 10%.
Please note that bellow insiders trades were executed at - around 0.43
Table of Allana's insider activity March 31st - April 1st 2014
Name Title Trade Date Shares Purchased Purchase Plan Current Ownership Increase In Shares
Farhad Abasov CEO April 1 37,500
Yes 2,207,500 shares +1.7%
Nejib Abba Biya SVP April 1 76,004
Yes 326,338 shares +30.4%
Deborah Battiston CFO April 1 25,619
Yes 209,159 shares +14.0%
Brianna Davies Corporate Secretary April 1 25,619
Yes 209,159 shares +14.0%
Israel Chemicals Ltd. (OTCPK:ISCHY)
10% Owner March 31 30,614,488
No 53,191,489 shares +135.6%
Richard Lacroix Director April 1 20,495
Yes 187,327 shares +12.3%
Lewis Mackenzie Director April 1 17,080
Yes 267,773 shares +6.8%
Peter MacLean SVP April 1 76,004
Yes 676,338 shares +12.7%
Jack Scott SVP April 1 76,004
Yes 364,338 shares +26.4%
Mark Stauffer Chairman April 1 21,349
Yes 80,966 shares +35.8%
Jason Wilkinson Project Manager April 1 50,384
Yes 217,179 shares +30.2%
Insider buying by calendar month
Here is a table of Allana's insider activity by calendar month.
Month Insider buying
April 2014 426,058
March 2014 30,614,488
February 2014 22,577,001
January 2014 163,169
October 2013 431,250
July 2013 393,750
April 2013 454,250
February 2013 99,500
There have been 55,159,466 shares purchased, and there have been zero shares sold by insiders since January 2013.
Market usually at this stage developing company don't move much above insiders buy price. Expecting this to change very soon :)
OneStepAhead to answer:
ICL Warrants issued 12th of February 2014. Each whole Warrant will be exercisable for one Common Share for a period of 36 months from issuance of the Warrant
Have to share my thoughts: I am very happy with recent development because it makes clear picture FA has decided to come in confrontation with ICL and push them to act as agreed during negotiations. ICL intentions are to wait for infrastructure and development of local market. They are executing well on that field with argument of MOP CAPEX being too low preventing financing final stage.
Stated recently by ICL Stefan Borgas: ''The project the way Allana proposes it is not possible at this level of CAPEX, from our perspective. What we have done now with our technical team, with contractors, and with-in collaboration with the Allana guys, is trying to narrow down the Capex estimate range to a level where we can feel comfortable to approve this, at least as investors. If Allana decides to go without us at their current level then I think we will take a step back,. If they can deliver it, okay, we have the offtake agreement, then this is also okay, but then we would not engage-get engaged full scale'''
On other hand Yara looking to quickly expand with SOP for which based on demand and current production price premium over MOP should remain for a longer time. Before I was very unhappy with Management but with recent moves I am very confident in very near bright future with possible development of large and parallel MOP,SOP production having partners in ICL and Yara. In my view such scenario is very possible, it will make happy ICL, Yara and Allana investors. CAPEX for parallel production will be 40% less than ICL and Yara making separated MOP and SOP production. Sharing energy and water infrastructure will additionally reduce CAPEX. ICL will have 80% of MOP production and Yara will get wanted SOP. We - Allana shareholders will get what we want, share price. IMO some kind of joint venture looks like possible and most logic development. Talks with Yara starting in two weeks, before that a few other interested parties will hold talks with Allana. Think that similar can be noted in FA latest statements. Many options are now open! Allana management and Farhad has taken over steering wheel again for the benefit of Allana investors :) For sure ICL will have to act as well, think they will offer buy out and I am expecting to see a bid war very soon :)
GL to all Allana longs!
Hope that from ''years of experience in penny stock arena'' you see that rocket launching count down has started. Even chart is saying it. Good luck with your wish to enter lower. Hmm, for sure you are not shorting the stock. Are you in team with some of posters playing ''good cop, bad cop'' with potential investors? :)
By the posts we can clearly see which investors has sold their shares :)
Till ICL exercise their warrants price will struggle to move much above 0.42 Some of investors knowing it sold hoping for a drift down and re entry. Think that was a mistake because ICL will have to act very fast, exercise their warrants in full and or offer a buy out to get larger chunk of SOP. Expecting price immediately to move north of 0.4 and same to remain as strong support. Mngmnt has finally applied pressure on ICL. Even better news coming very soon!!
I am expecting ICL to exercise all their warrants before SOP spin of which may be very soon after PEA
Judging on SP volume and price action I am confident to say that SOP PEA is completed. We will see if ICL will make next move immediately
SOP and MOP can be mined at same time from same caverns because of geological structure so your conclusion MOP or SOP is wrong.
Solution mining of the deposit where the MgCl is less than 10 metres, Sylvinite, Carnallitite and Kainitite units are mined at the same time. Cavern height 25-35 meters.
Solution mining of the upper and lower deposits units where MgCl more than 10 metres in thickness (MgCl usually separates the upper and lower mineralised layers). Method simultaneously mine both the lower and upper mineralised deposits through a triangular pillar cavern mining method.
Design of the solar evaporation ponds will have to follow the mining method. All in all there are methods available for solution mining of MOP and SOP at same time, initially only MOP with transition period (10 years or so) to SOP or combination as per above etc. Depends what will be most economical for the resources geological structure. Think that all agree that conventional mining of lower mineralised units is out of question first because of not adequate MgCl structure - flooding, costs involved.... You can expect that CAPEX will double (for SOP - MOP combined exploration) and that was initial logic why Mngmnt has decided for MOP only........Have to say one more time, I don't like MOP FEED suspended because IMO indicates total change of business model , will postpone construction - production and indicates that ICL is not our best friend. On other hand if new model successful will more than double up value of Allana properties
Farhad or Allana Mngmnt never said there was any imminent news to come on various optimization programs, financing initiatives as well as strategic programs. They are working on aquifer stress tests but not sure why already for a few weeks there is impression that good news will come any time soon.
My opinion remains as in post on this board dated Saturday, 01/31/15 05:26:09 PM Hope I was wrong.
''AMEC's FEED study suspension is going to be reason for new delays. Why it has been suspended?? In August 2014 Mngmnt announced FEED as preparatory work in anticipation of the completion of project financing and expected start of construction. In my view there will be no financing or start of construction any time soon for sure not during 2015.''
Your post is correct but hope this time will be different.
SP firming up?? Are we looking at same SP? LOL
No, they are talking about African potash co.
http://www.africanpotash.com/index.aspx
Just to mention, my English progressing very well. Thanks
LOL Solid price?! If FX taken in account price is on 52 week low. And is going to be lower.
Just a jump to 50MA and back to teens in a week time. Wish you all good trading
ICL Bloomberg Business article
“An 11 percent advance in the past three months suggests Israel Chemicals’ strategy to shrink in its home market and seek deals from China to Brazil may be winning over investors. The government is pursuing a bigger share of natural-resources income, which has prompted the company to cancel $750 million of investments and put a further $1 billion of spending on hold. The company is moving its entire capital expenditure overseas in order to flee the worsening conditions in Israel,” Gilad Alper, a senior analyst at Excellence Nessuah Brokerage in Petach Tikva, who has a hold recommendation on the stock, said by phone on Monday. “Israel Chemicals has no choice but to continue cutting costs in Israel and looking abroad for growth.” The company agreed in December to invest as much as $500 million in a Chinese phosphate venture and later in the month acquired a stake in Fosbrasil S.A., a Brazilian-based producer of phosphate-based products. At home, Israel Chemicals is cutting as much as 12 percent of its employees over the next three years ''
Total volume of 1,286,162 shares traded, 4 times average. That makes me very worried. Someone dumped large. It looks to me that bad news leaked out? We will find out soon
ICL has vetted the CAPEX with CEO Mr. Borgas statement regarding CAPEX being too low. There is no bank which will land money till CAPEX confirmed and exact cost clarified, agreed by ICL. ICL has expertise and their opinion is more valuable as well as more respected by institutional investors and in industry in general than ERCOSPLAN. Mr. Borgas did not say that it is his opinion but opinion of ICL experts with extensive experience and history of excellent performance. My opinion is that more delays will benefit to ICL in an attempt for buyout, (cheap one) which I would not like to happen. After the CAPEX statement by Mr. Borgas, Farhad and his doings are irrelevant, For sure ICL controls the game. Very clever move which made us suffer and wait more with no light at the end of tunnel yet. Bellow extract from Aug 7th 2014 conf call with ICL CEO Stefan Borgas held by Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Market. Please note that above written is my opinion only.
Extract - Stefan Borgas - CEO ICL
'After we bought 16% in Allana Potash, a Canadian company but with the project
in Ethiopia, our technical teams have started to engage very deeply with the
Allana team and what we already saw in the pre-acquisition phase
is that the CAPEX projections that Allana has for this project are rather optimistic. We feel it’s probably a very attractive project. We need a few more months in order to define some of the more really, really technical details that will determine the final feasibility of this project. So we’re positive about it, but the project is not attractive in the way the junior mining company has designed it, at least that’s what we see from today’s perspective.'
Question from Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Market:
'That was very helpful, Stefan.
I just had one more question on Allana in Ethiopia.
You mentioned that Allana’s prior CAPEX estimates were quite optimistic. Maybe you could just give it a little more elaboration here. So what specifically what is optimistic? Was it the mine plan? Was it the prices and the equipment? Do you need to do another feasibility study here?
And where are you six months after this with the timing and the technical
Challenges and opportunities on this project?
Thanks.'
Stefan Borgas:
'So, this is a junior mining company who did a very good job when doing a pilot and
doing some basic design. Now, in order to build a mine, you need to go into more
of a detailed design so that you can narrow the CAPEX range.
We knew this when we bought this option.
What we’ve found now is that our original assumptions require more investigations, so we're not nervous.
The project the way Allana proposes it is not possible at this level of
CAPEX, from our perspective.
What we have done now with our technical team, with contractors, and with
-in collaboration with the Allana guys, is trying to narrow down the
Capex estimate range to a level where we can feel comfortable to approve
this, at least as investors. If Allana
decides to go without us at their current level then I think we will take a step back,. If
they can deliver it, okay, we have the offtake agreement, then this is also okay, but then we would not engage-get engaged full scale.
I believe our guys who are, you know —operation experts, and who know how to deal with Sylvinite and Carnallitite alike, really know what they're talking about so
I have high trust in our team.'
GL to all Allana longs
Thanks for explanations regarding banks rules and landing process in general. I see that you are well familiar with the process. I am surprised to hear that ICL comment for CAPEX is not applicable and that such information is only transferred verbally to some shareholders. CAPEX statement came from Stefan Borgas, CEO of ICL. ICL might be playing games to get Allana for almost nothing but Allana not to disclose apologies over such a statement sounds very bad. Regarding FEED, if contract was signed and it was it is normal practice that AMEC will have to get compensation for suspension so IMO money is not saved with that move but wasted. As difference in CAPEX price indicates FEED for SOP is different than for MOP. To me it looks like Allana - Farhad at the time of high potash prices went for MOP over SOP because of CAPEX which is significantly lower for MOP (could be 50% lower). After price of MOP collapsed he now wants to go with SOP, so we are almost at beginning for shareholders value - financing, construction? Such scenario may be possible.
Justin, correct, I didn't know that 30% decrease taking place. That worries me. Also I was not at the meeting because I do not live in Canada or USA and at moment Shanghai is city where I live. Also I am not coming from English talking area so excuse me that occasionally in my posts I can't use appropriate words to express feelings behind it but this time it looks like my feelings were described well. Yes I am disappointed. Not have intentions to sell my shares but thinking to add more on present prices to average down. Honestly speaking afraid to do so due to recent developments, due to Farhad has promised so much but not much has come. What has happened with London listing for example? Would like to let you know, I have master's in engineering and at moment one of engineering site leads for a multi billion project in China so very well aware what it means to suspend a FEED study. Also to come with SOP part of project at this stage of MOP project is if nothing else unprofessional. It implies that management was not aware of SOP possibilities till now?? I doubt it but if that's the case we should sell our shares immediately. Think that SOP part is a spin that Farhad using for unknown reason to us. Hope it is not in order to buy patience. What I believe is that infrastructure is not ready yet for a project, Ethiopian market is not ready yet for MOP or SOP, potash price is still in long term bear trend, supply exceeding demand and IMO not many institutions will agree to finance the project soon. All that is very favourable to ICL and not favourable to us. Knowing all what I have mention and buying shares a year ago sounds contradictory. I decided to buy once Farhad stated will go for financing (stated in final stage at that time) and construction in parallel with developing market in Ethiopia and once infrastructure finished Allana will be already ready for production. Usually buying just before financing is best entry point. It was stated if remember well that construction will be completed mid 2016. One of the reasons to buy Allana shares was low cost of potash. Sounds strange but my logic behind was that only Allana can be profitable project with such low potash prices. Sometime less is more. To say one more time, IMO project is great but mngmnt not with the huge accent on Farhad. Every few months he announce bombastic news and than nothing happens. Very unprofessional IMO. Also for me very unlogic how you as investor can cheer and suport recent mngmnt moves. At the end what is your opinion regarding possible buyout by ICL? Would they possibly offer 0.7usd per share (close to 0.9 cad) or that price is to optimistic? Also ICL stated that CAPEX will be considerably higher than originally planed, if I remember well and that they will stick with of take agreement only? Thanks in advance for comments
AMEC's FEED study suspension is going to be reason for new delays. Why it has been suspended?? In August 2014 mngmnt announced FEED as preparatory work in anticipation of the completion of project financing and expected start of construction. In my view there will be no financing or start of construction any time soon for sure not during 2015.
Spin with SOP (not MOP as written in my previous post) for which water licence and quantity is questionable. Sorry for typo
OneStep, I have make my own investigation before investing and at the time Allana looked as opportunity. What I do not like with Justin posts is that even obvious to all that SP sinking because mngmnt do not following timeline they announced, making spins with MOP for which water is questionable etc but looking for excuses in day traders. If you are investor in Allana it's not possible to be happy with development. That is a fact. By the way IMO many more delays and disapontments are infront of investors. At the end thanks for wishes to lose all what have invested in Allana. I think your wishes are closer to reality than Justin posts. Will stick arround and monitor your work. Also please do not tell me abouth what I have to do with my lose. My 142k shares are going to stay till 2020 and at the time will be worthless or a great investment as I hoped a year ago.
Have a nice weekend
Justin, I would like to try to provide explanation on my impression regarding your posts and I can agree with You that my comment - post regarding the fact that ICL has paid premium to the lowest price in 52 weeks end of December 2013 was arranged by mngmnt is only my impression and yes I have no facts to support my post which was instantly deleted. Also just to mention, any of your posts can not be supported by any facts but you are presenting it like a facts. In your every post, coming very often in regular intervals on various boards you are claiming receiving messages from bashers admitting you they are manipulating a price or any other posts with similar content suggesting that even SP is sinking Allana mngmnt is great, development moving towards financing etc... Can you prove those statements? Would you present it as fact? Of course not. The mngmnt has made a deal with ICL at unfavourable moment for shareholders. In my view that is a fact, in your eyes that is a great move claiming a large premium over SP. The worst moment was for us, small holders. In my opinion there is so many coincidences that all done to bring ICL capital which was necessary for development of the mine was by accident - normal SP movement. I am not basher, I am not pro investor or pro trader just a disappointed small naive investor. I would like one day to tell you: 'Justin, sorry for my posts, I was wrong' but at moment I cannot do it because there is still no light at the end of tunnel. Also would like to say that IMO SOP spin is just a trick to buy more time to mngmnt . Opposite to promises regarding mine development mngmnt is very spot on once deciding for their cash and premiums. GL to all longs
Just to add and will not make any further posts, still holding 142k shares. GL to all shareholders
My score is 30% loss during one year of being invested in ALLRF. At the time that appeared as great entry price. Can somebody help me understand why in my opinion management intentionally decreasing SP to enable new institutional investors or ICL low SP for their investment. They did it before ICL investment and then claiming premium of 40% over SP. I feel like a donkey running for carrot moved by Farhad.
End of next week all assets are going to be frozen. You know that money for MJNA start is coming from real estate fraud. GL
The co. itself is not fraudulent, sounds like just the people running it.
1st.
If fraud is going on, the trading of the stock could be halted, for an undisclosed period of time, =dead$$
2nd
money used to start and fund the co.(already documented and disclosed by Mr.lamas), is from fraudulent real estate practices. Also called illegal gains...which by the way, no matter where or to whom it went, can and will be confiscated by the DOJ...
The co. would probably go bankrupt if it cant cover the losses sustained by Mr.Lamas fraudulent schemes. Mr.Lamas seems to be unloading all his stock, as mentioned earlier, for whatever reasons, which I presume he plans on fleeing the country with.
Long or short, your money is in serious danger of leaving you for good.
Here is that's really going on with MJNA in my opinion: Llamas had more of an active role when MJNA was in it's infancy. Money that was invested into the company by Llamas in the beginning into MJNA subsidiary companies could have possibly come from alleged fraud sources per alleged fraud charges against Llamas. That money has to be accounted for & traced somehow in the MJNA's financial statements especially if there is an audit or assets need to be siezed by the feds and it's fairly easy to create a financial statement which could indicate that Llamas' money was invested solely into the subsidary company Phytosphere Systems. To make any possible Llamas issues go away, management had to make a sacrafice. That sacrafice was to sell off Mjna's subsidiary Phytosphere Systems in a bold move which now avoid any frozen assets going down the line, because the money trail stops once Phytospere has been sold off.For share holders it means price around 0.1 - 0.2 only during this or next week.
Kev thanks for advice
Did anybody get in between 03-04?
I did :)
Somebody have bought as well
Long with target at 37$ 2016. GO MJNA!!!!
Is PR coming today?
I posted comment on recent article in SA but not sure if will be published
If author have a point and MJNA is pump and dump scheme, then only logic which comes is that Seeking Alpha is a part of that scheme. For sure not intentionally but it may be only a tool in hands of pump and dump team. Hope my comment is not going to be canceled because SA as well respected site which is followed by many and usually serious contributors writing great articles but timing of events on which SA publishing a few articles about MJNA as great investment a moth ago and than coming with recent ones leading to my conclusion. Seeking Alpha become a tool for great pump and dump if that is what is going on! Make your DD before any investment and do not base trades or investment on articles published anywhere. My opinion is that MJNA is going to burn pump and dump team because have excellent products, once in a history political environment and huge market to take a big cut of it