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Thanks for the great info hurley.
Can't wait for announcement of first MACI surgery.
Thomson Reuters/Verus upgrades VERICEL CORPORATION from HOLD to BUY.
BY Investars Analyst Actions - public
— 5:30 PM ET 01/16/2017
On January 16, 2017 Thomson Reuters/Verus upgraded VERICEL CORPORATION VCEL from HOLD to BUY.
According to a previous 13G/A filed on Feb. 13, 2015, at that time Eastern owned 787,489 Vericel shares.
http://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+SC+13GA+Vericel+Corp+Filed+by%3A+Eastern+Capital+LTD/10266502.html
The filing today shows ownership by Eastern of 1,881,381 shares so it appears that they recently purchased shares totaling 1,093,892. This seems to be confirmed in an article today FairHerald which says:
January 18, 2017 Michael Collier
13GD Report: Learn Why Eastern Capital Ltd Just Purchased Vericel Corp Stake?
"
The New Eastern Capital Ltd Holding in Vericel Corp
Eastern Capital Ltd filed with the SEC SC 13G form for Vericel Corp. The form can be accessed here: 000140840817000002. As reported in Eastern Capital Ltd’s form, the filler as of late owns 5.5% or 1,881,381 shares of the -company.
Vericel Corp stake is a new one for them and it was filed because of activity on January 8, 2017. We feel this shows Eastern Capital Ltd’s positive view for the stock."
EASTERN CAPITAL LIMITED has purchased 1,881,381 VCEL shares. Perhaps they are the big buyer that has been holding the price down for accumulation.
Here's who they are:
http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=129077110
Here's the 13G filing:
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=11788759&RcvdDate=1/18/2017&CoName=VERICEL%20CORP&FormType=SC%2013G&View=html
Hi Derek.
Every so often I take a look at the ANY board and it astounds me that you are still spending almost every day wasting your time kicking a dead horse and gloating over those who lost money on that stock. Says a great deal about your character.
To set the record straight, I was not one who said it was a "can't miss stock". There is no such thing. Most of the messages I posted about that company and its technology were just quotes from people in the tech field who did in fact have some very positive things to say about the technology. Obviously that proved to not be correct. I got completely out of that stock many, many months ago.
I would suggest that instead of spending your time on meaningless (and often just plain MEAN) messages on the ANY board, that you do your own research on Vericel and then share your wisdom & opinion about its potential or lack thereof. Then we can eventually determine how good or bad you are as a stock picker.
By the way, how is your golf game these days.
Good luck back atcha.
If there is one thing I have learned in many years of investing it is DO NOT STAY INVESTED IN A STOCK IF YOU DO NOT TRUST OR HAVE FAITH IN ITS MANAGEMENT.
Every time I stayed invested in a company after I lost faith in managements abilities or their intentions to do things in the best interests of shareholders, I regretted it and usually ended up losing money.
Since every message you write questions the ability and integrity of Vericel's management, you might want to consider just moving on to another investment. If nothing else it might relieve you of the anger and frustration that is evident in your messages. No investment is worth it if it negatively affects a persons piece of mind.
Sure would be nice to have you share your opinions and information here a lot more often. People who have been following Vericel and its products for a long time are really helpful sources for those like me who are newcomers to this company.
Thanks for posting.
"Why so little or no interest by investors in Vericel? "
First of all you can eliminate "no interest". The fact that you are here asking that question is proof that there is at least some interest.
There is "little interest" because it is a little company. Micro caps are usually defined as companies with market caps of $50M to $300M. That puts Vericel near the bottom of this group and this group is almost toatlly ignored by funds, institutional investors and average retail investors.
I got a good example this week. A friend is a very successful Morgan Stanley investment counselor. I happened to mention VCELL to him. He of course had never heard of the company. He then sent me some info he gathered. He explained that Morgan Stanley does not cover Vericel and consequently has no info. So he gave me reports from Morningstar, Reuters and Dorsey Wright. They were all dated Jan. 2017 yet NONE of these reports even included the fact that Vericel received FDA approval for MACE in December. Since the average investor depends upon outfits like this for info and advice, how much interest can they have if they get no info or incomplete info.
That's why the biggest money can be made by finding little companies like VCEL with BIG POTENTIAL and get in before these guys "discover" them and they create the "big interest". That's how you can make 5, 10, 20, 50 or more times your investment.
Of course that is also why it becomes up to the individual investor to do deep research on these little companies, choose very wisely, and stay on top of developments on almost a daily basis. Not many are willing to do this.
Hi maulers.
I have no problem criticising management. But I think it is only fair to do so regarding things that are factual.
You say:
"I wonder why the immediate need for 50 Million Dollars at the yearly LOW was necessary."
That is not a true statement. The secondary was done at $2.75. The yearly low was $2.03 and the 12 month low was $1.76. So the cash raise was done substantially higher. And, they raised $20M not $50M. Should they have waited? Could it have been done at a higher price? Who knows. But that is speculation and not fact.
You also say: "ATM printing of shares is killing this company."
There is no factual information regarding how many ATM shares have been sold, if any have been sold at all, or if so at what price. If some had been sold BEFORE the FDA approval, I would have no problem with that. If ATM shares have been sold AFTER the approval and the secondary, then I would also be critical, but neither you nor I have that information so why don't we wait and see.
Then you say:
"Come on VCEL management, get off your Arses and justify the massive dilution to the owners of the company - YOUR SHAREHOLDERS! "
First of all, I would not call the $20M cash raise massive and I think it was smart to do so when they needed the cash to properly bring MACI to market. You know those dozens of reps they are hiring, it takes money. And the staff to train ortho's takes money. There are substantial expenses whenever a company brings a new product to market. Secondly, I would rather management say nothing at all then issue some puff promotional pumping piece just to satisfy impatient shareholders.
Finally you say:
"Just venting... Sorry to post my extreme disappointment at VCEL's "SILENT" Management!"
I know. But let's give them a chance. FDA approval is only a month old. For now I am willing to abide by what Cramer said:
"If you have conviction about a company, and the story has plenty of catalysts, and the management is terrific and non-promotional … then good things can happen, often much sooner than you would expect"
I am not a big fan of Jim Cramer, but he just made a statement whose wisdom could be applied to Vericel investors. He was talking about a stock that had been going down recently but then had a 25% increase in one day. Here's what he said:
"If you have conviction about a company, and the story has plenty of catalysts, and the management is terrific and non-promotional … then good things can happen, often much sooner than you would expect," the "Mad Money" host said."
Well, the good news is that if the shorts keep shorting and the company keeps selling ATM shares and we keep going down .05 per day, we still have a whole 57 trading days before we are all totally broke.
Seriously though, anyone who plays in todays market must accept the fact that it has become a place where sometimes up is not really up and down is not really down. The sharks (hedgefundies, Market Makers, brokerages, etc. will use every trick in their bag. And companies in the long run can be more interested in the welfare of management then in that of their shareholders. All these parties will take it to the edge of illegality and if they cross over the line a bit there is really no one except another Fox guarding the hen house. That is just the way it is.
Someone earlier suggested that the big increase in short interest was probably shorting going on between the FDA announcement and the announcement of the secondary. Actually, that is against the law. It's called rule 105. http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=92e757e9-1501-41c2-a4c5-5df8203ed4fb
And of course the sharks would never think about doing something against the rules. Right?
However, all is not lost. Sometimes it just takes LONGER. I still believe that despite the artificial machinations that go on in todays market, every equity EVENTUALLY arrives at a fair market value.
So when a company like Vericel that has 3 FDA approved products, another on the way, $30M in cash, very little debt, is just going to market with what should be a huge revenue producer, and the whole company is valued at under $85M, then down is not really down. It is only a temporary aberration that will correct itself after the sharks have had their fill and the share price will be more in balance with a fair market value which I believe right now should be at least $6.
So for those who can take advantage of this low value and wait for the pay off, the rewards can be very great in spite of the frustration with what is going on right now.
"Can anyone explain how shorts made a killing on VCEL ?"
Highly unlikely. Simply because there has been such a small short interest in VCEL. It has been usually less than 2% of the float. The only time it is possible that some might have made a bit of money would have been on December 14th when the share price shot up to $4.10 on FDA approval and then after the announcement of the stock offering it dropped down to around $3 on December 16th. But that assumes they were so smart that they could buy at the absolute top and sell at the bottom. Of course the short interest numbers for that period haven't even been released yet so no one knows. If there was a significant increase in shorting around that period it also may have been by those buying the offer at $2.75 hedging their bet.
"What if they can't get shares for settlement ?"
I think you are a bit confused on this. Buying shares to cover a short are always available. It is only trying to obtain shares to short that sometimes are not.
At any rate, unless there is a huge change in the amount of short interest, it really isn't something that probably is very important in investing in Vericel.
"I've even seen a 4:1 ratio of bid to ask"
That has happened, but not often. I have been using this disparity as a buying indicator. Simply, since the first of the year whenever the bids exceed the asks by more than a 2 to 1 ratio, I buy another 1000 shares. I believe that has happened every market day. I put the order in at the ask price but it is usually filled at a price that is .02 to .025 below that.
Only time will tell if this is a wise strategy.
" Vericel Corporation (NASDAQ:VCEL) shares have been labeled a top pick by Beta Research as it meets the A+ criteria outlined by the firm. The stock boasts a consensus analyst “Buy” rating with the consensus recommendation standing at 1.70. This is according to all covering research brokerage firms taken into consideration by First Call. The consensus price target of $8.87 also implies significant upside from the current price of $2.95. Moreover, the firm has reported EPS quarter over quarter growth of over 10%, which is another requirement for the top rating. "
https://prospectjournal.com/can-this-stock-hit-on-all-cylinders-and-achieve-projections-vericel-corporation-nasdaqvcel/35336/
"Maybe they will let us know if the secondary is complete and Cowan has no more shares to sell. "
These, of course, are two different things.
The recent offering through Piper Jaffrey is complete. Both the offering and the over allotment.
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/vericel-corporation-announces-exercise-of-underwriters-over-allotment-option-and-closing-of-20-20161221-00761
The ATM with Cowen is a different matter. Unfortunately we have no way of knowing whether or not any or all the shares have been sold under the ATM.
Anyway, right now it appears that there are 3 possibilities for the share price being contained.
1. Huge amount of shorting going on by those who believe this is all a scam and expect the share price to crash. That seems highly unlikely.
2. Cowen/Vericel is actively selling the ATM shares into the bid. If that is true it would be very dissapointing as the company certainly isn't desperate for the funds right now. It would mean that they think the shares are overpriced and don't expect them to go higher. Again, that doesn't seem likely but who knows.
3. The scenario I mentioned earlier which is some big buyers or buyers controlling the price in order to pick up shares.
Your guess is as good as mine.
"that can be the only reason its not moving up. "
I think it is not moving up because there are those who don't want it to move up right now. I have previously pointed out the odd way the shares trade. Today is another good example.
Right now on Level II there are 108,000 shares on the bid @ $2.95 and 54,000 shares on the ask at $3. Over the last couple of weeks it has been common to see a 2 to 1 or more ratio like this. When this is the case for most stocks, the shares move up. Not so with VCEL. Every time the ask price is hit, even in volume, it will be knocked back to the bid price with a small amount of shares.
Pretty obvious that the price is being controlled by those with the power to do so. Usually the reason for this is that someone is very interested in accumulating as many shares as possible at these prices. If that is the case, it is frustrating right now but a good sign for the future. Those with the where-with-all to play the same game can profit from situations like this.
Drill Craig A Boosts Stake in Aralez Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARLZ)
Posted by David Glaser on Jan 5th, 2017
Drill Craig A increased its stake in Aralez Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ARLZ) by 64.0% during the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 958,945 shares of the company’s stock after buying an additional 374,345 shares during the period. Aralez Pharmaceuticals comprises approximately 19.1% of Drill Craig A’s portfolio, making the stock its 2nd largest position. Drill Craig A owned 1.47% of Aralez Pharmaceuticals worth $4,651,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.
" If it were not for the recent FDA approval, many here would not have purchased in spite of all the "excitement" about the recent stem cell trial. "
That statement definitely does apply to me. I bought shares strictly on the basis of the cartilage business potential. I have many friends, relatives and associates who have suffered through the trials and tribulations of knee problems and then additional problems after total knee replacement. If what I see personally is any indication, this is a HUGE market and any company that "builds a better mousetrap", ie solution, could be a big winner.
It wasn't until a couple of weeks after owning shares that I began to seriously look at Ixmyelocel-T and the added "excitement" about both that and Epicel led me to buy many more shares than I would have based only upon MACI.
The following all sounds exciting to me:
"The trial was designed to provide approximately 80% power to show a 46% difference in cardiac events for ischemic DCM patients treated with ixmyelocel-T compared to placebo. A total of 114 patients were treated in the ixCELL-DCM clinical trial at 28 sites in the United States.
“The results of the ixCELL-DCM study, which we believe is the largest randomized cell therapy trial to treat congestive heart failure completed to date, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in cardiac events in patients who received treatment with ixmyelocel-T compared to placebo,” said Dr. David Recker, Vericel’s chief medical officer. “We are very excited about these study results given the lack of treatment options for end-stage heart failure patients.”
I think your questions about WHY the results were positive and what caused them to be, are valid and hope we hear more about this as the status of the product proceeds. But for now, based upon my view of the company overall, I could not be more excited about my investment.
Thanks maulers.
Unfortunately that information doesn't really tell us anything. Usually a company will tell the selling broker a minimum share price they are willing to sell the ATM shares for. Since Vericel just completed a regular offering and has sufficient cash at this time, my guess would be that the minimum price they would now be willing to sell the ATM shares would be considerably higher than the current share price.
We probably won't be able to know if any shares were sold on the ATM basis until the next 10Q filing but for now I don't think it is anything that shareholders should be fretting about.
"Ir said in an email reply to me today that there is an open ATM with Cowen dated 10/2016. "
For how many shares or for how much money? Is this part of the one from June?
How do you think this is having any effect on the share price?
I believe you are referring to the filing back in June that gave Cowen the right to sell up to $25M worth of VCEL shares. I cannot find any evidence that any new shares were issued or sold by Cowen.
On June 30, 2016 Outstanding shares were 22,684M.
On September 30 Outstanding shares were 22,744M.
So clearly, nothing much happened during that 3 month period.
The share count today is about 30M. But that increase was all due to the 7M shares in the recent offering through Piper Jaffrey in December.
So I just don't see what you are referring to when claiming that Cowen is causing a huge dilution. Can you explain further?
"Very disappointed short term that COWEN is printing shares (ATM) at VCEL's request to the tune of over 6 million shares."
Do you have any factual basis for that statement? If so, could you share it?
If in fact there is some maneuverings going on in order to keep the share price down right now, people with a positive view towards Vericel's future should be very happy about it. It is creating an opportunity to load up on shares of this fine little company at bargain prices.
Anyone who has any experience at all in the stock market understands that, for brief periods of time, the powerful have the ability to artificially create share prices that are out of sync with the real value of the company either on the undervalued or overvalued side. Best to try to take advantage of these situations rather than just complain about them.
Just checking this out. Appears this surgery costs about $18,000 and for the most part is not covered by insurance. Is that true? If so, it certainly would greatly limit the number of procedures.
Can anyone shed any more light on this issue? Might be a great thing but if unaffordable they would have a difficult time doing enough business to become profitable.
I agree.
Interesting purchase at 4:00.
119,800 @ 3.10.
Wasn't me, but over the last 2 weeks I have picked up plenty of shares.
This is starting to remind me of another small biotech I owned several years ago. It was a little company in the Netherlands called Crucell. First came across it when it was about $5. Didn't do anything about it then but kept watching it as their story got better but the price kept going down because it was so under covered. Finally bought a boatload of it at $1.85. Took about 5 years, but they ended up being bought out by Johnson & Johnson for over $30.
The stock market has been my primary source of income for the last 20 years. My major positions are usually in small caps who I believe have a unique product or service, good management, where the risk/reward ratio strongly favors reward, and there is a real potential for a 3 to 10 times share price increase. I pay little attention to Technical Analysis as I believe these types of stocks are generally driven by news and improvement in fundamentals. I do have a question though for anyone here who is more expert in T.A.
I really don't recall coming across a stock in this category that has performed like what I am seeing in the share price of VCEL. The amount of shares on both the Bid and the Ask are HUGE in relation to the overall volume. The number of shares on the Bid generally is substantially greater than those on the ask. Yet, for the last many days the movement has very rarely been upward and almost always downward.
VCEL is one of the stocks in the new .05 Tick Pilot Program but I don't know if this is a factor in the strange trading.
Would appreciate info from anyone who actually might understand exactly what is going on.
P.S. - this strange trading has no effect upon my very positive sentiment towards huge gains this year in Vericel. Just would like to understand.
Great message maulers and thanks for pointing out the section on Vericels website where they are looking to hire sales reps all over the country. Bodes very well for the future. This could be one of the biggest winners of 2017.
I believe that article was speaking of all types of skin replacement. It speaks of both Episel & Integra.
That is an amazing process. Looks like the market for skin replacement is expected to grow:
Skin Replacement Market: Overview
Though skin replacement is a new technology for emerging economies, but in the developed nations the same technology is in use for few decades. With increasing disposable income and rising urbanization the acceptance of skin replacements is gaining popularity. The global skin replacement market is expected to expand at a promising CAGR during the forecast period (2015-2025).
Skin Replacement Market: Region-wise Outlook
Skin replacement market is still in its early stage of maturity. The global skin replacement market is expected to register an optimistic CAGR for the forecast period. Depending on geographic regions, global skin replacement market is segmented into seven key regions: North America, South America, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Asia Pacific, Japan, and Middle East & Africa.
http://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/skin-replacement-market
No problem. Besides VCEL, I also have a substantial position in ARLZ. Be interested in you (or any other posters opinion on it). I have great expectations of both of these doing a minimum of doubling in 2017.
Since I mainly got in Vericel based upon its cartilage regeneration business, it is only now that I am beginning to take a closer look at their IXCELL-DCM product. If that works out it could be their biggest success. Very exciting.
OK, I'm sold.
Bring MACI on.
By the way, my wife had a knee replacement that gave her problems for 10 years. Finally had a revision. It's better now but still not great.
I remember back 15 years ago when she first developed the problem doing research on alternatives. She did get Hyaluronic injections, and I also remember reading about cartilage cell regeneration experiments going on in some Scandinavian country. It's great that we now have a procedure that can save people a great deal of pain. That is worth plenty of money.
"So approximately $44k per MACI potential market 20,000 procedures"
All I can say is WOW!!!!!!
As a shareholder I love it. As a consumer it seems like an awful lot of money for this procedure.
Thanks Sugar & Hurley for the info.
It appears that an average total knee replacement these days (without complications or post operative care and therapy) would be around $60,000.
Found an article on Seeking Alpha from Feb 2016 by BioNap that gives some numbers Carticel.
He says: "The average revenue per procedure in 2015 should now run around $35,000 for Vericel."
Very informative article. Take a look if you haven't already:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2892966-why-vericel-shares-will-double-in-2015
I agree.
Just curious. Do you have any idea exactly what it is that Vericel will be selling regarding MACI? How much might they make per procedure?
I am very much a neophyte when it comes to the financials of something like this that is more a process or technique than a product.
New filing today is to modify their revolving loan agreement with Silicon Bank. To me the important part is that the company is guaranteeing revenues in 2017 of a minimum of $60M. That would represent a minimum revenue growth of about 20%.
Here's what the filing says:
A. Modifications to Loan Agreement.
1 Section 6.9(a) of the Loan Agreement shall be deleted in its entirety and replaced with the following:
(a) Minimum Revenue. Achieve minimum net revenue (determined in accordance with GAAP), measured on a trailing twelve month basis ending as of the date of measurement, on a consolidated basis of Borrower and its Subsidiaries, in an amount equal to or greater than the amount listed below for each corresponding trailing twelve month period:
December 31, 2017 $60,000,000.00
I got the same at $2.975.
Also did the same at $3.075. Slightly down on those purchases today, but looking forward to large gains going forward.
With FDA approval for MACI, $20M more in the bank, and ongoing revenues for their current products, this could be one of the big winners of 2017.