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0.50 calls might do well.....I believe in miracles...
At this point I'm (like several) waiting on news. I'm thinking we'll hear something mid- to late June, possibly as late as July. If Management had any confidence I would think they'd release information at or before shareholder voting. I suspect the share price will continue to decrement daily until such time as any clarification from Management. Then it will probably tank (although ~0.30 is tanked already) or proceed back to 0.50 range relatively quickly depending on how things look with the FDA.
No trades? Something we ought to know about going on? Or, just complete apathy? Wow!
Someone jumped in at 0.3707 for 1500. "God Bless you Sir! Now we can get that leg fixed for Tiny Tim!"
You mean there are LIES on Yahoo message board? My oh my...There goes my investment strategy! LOL
Lol. My pitiful buys have been the largest in the last hour. No buyers and no sellers. Is there a way to make money off stock apathy?
Let's see what happens if I give it another little push.
Yeah...And I'm looking at the carrots of EMA approval and other applications down stream. Managment is probably right to STFU in this case although it is frustrating to the retail investor.
And I'll be thinking I'm a genius for buying at 0.37. LOL
All my other investments are safe types (that I don't touch). This is basically out of my high risk slush fund....In this case very high risk. I still think it's potentially a high reward technology. That said, technologies have failed before due to inadequate managment or other factors. But, I'm from the buy when others are scared school. Investors are definitely scared right now, so I'm in.
Wow! 22 minutes between trades. Has everyone put this stock on ignore?
That should have been 13:38:34....Didin't want to thorw off anyone's timing to jump in! LOL
Bought at 13:34:34 (EST)...hasn't moved since. A body at rest tends to remain at rest?
LOL! I bought a little bit just to see it move.
Yeah, but a wood chipper would get it over with pretty quickly. This is more like a rabid beaver gnawing me to nothing.
So, now we wait for the FDA meeting. Maybe a June FDA meeting with a need for single dose (0.5 mg) manufacturing process data. Maybe they skimped on this portion of data collection versus the original two dose? Could be complicated, expensive or both if the data doesn't exist. But given this issue did not receive any attention from management earlier it will probably turn out to be another ALXA weird-but-true finding.
Should be a wild swing day based on competing factors: 1) poor showing (none actually) at the cc versus 2) rumors of merger/sale.
Just caught the tail end (last 30 seconds)....Sounded like same old fluff with no specifics?
I didn't get to get in on the cc....Anything of note come out?
So how do is that to be interpreted??
It's been ramping up slightly all day (albeit on only ~750K volume). This is VERY unusual behavior for this stock. Another surprise in the making or false hope brewing?
Another ALXA "interesing" day. Hope I have time to take in the call this afternoon. That "should/might" set the tone for the next few months.
Ever see Das Boot (The Boat)? ALXA related quotes:
Captain: "ALARM!"
2nd Lieutenant: First time on U-boat?
Lt. Werner: Yeah. First time. It's gonna be exciting.
2nd Lieutenant: Do you have a will?
Lt. Werner: Excuse Me?
2nd Lieutenant: 13 boats down last month. Sank with men and mice. Exciting, huh?
GLTA
Bought a few more shares at ~0.40....LOL. The melodrama surrounding this stock has got to be worth something. I'll be a hero or zero (the latter looking like the most likely scenario).
Come on in. The water's fine...except for the sharks..and bottom feeding scum suckers.
Guesses for tomorrow? I'm hoping that managment is realistic about what the situation is. The uncertainty at this point is driving the stock. I'll go out on a limb and provide my guesses (wild swags?) about the situation/timeline:
1) Probably have not had follow-on meeting with FDA. This will probably not take place till June.
1) I estimate resolving Manufacturing issue may be a ~4-6 month process no matter what the issue is just to get through all the hurdles.
2) Safety (REMS)/labeling issues remain. These will not be worked (or discussed) until after the manufacturing issue(s) resolved. Add 3-4 months after the manufacturing issue is resolved.
3) Do not have enough cash for 1) and 2) above. Will require additional funding. After the last sale and CRL probably can not raise via additional stock issuance. Need a big investor with a very sweet (for them not the stock holders) deal.
4)Guessing R/S at a 5+ level is a given unless there is some kind of revolt (doubtful at these price levels).
I really don't mind if these are the issues (that's the risk) but let's just get them on the table. Removing the uncertainty with a straight forward approach and realistic estimates (or even guesstimates) would go a long way to improving this company's credibility.
I think anything better than the above (1-4) will be cause for confidence increases, but certainly be prepared for a long wait....Again.
Yes, it definitely looks like they are playing down both the inspection results and the issues remaining with the REMS that can only be covered after the manufacturing issues are resolved.
I can only wonder if I would do the same in their position.
However, at this point any additional losses this stock experiences won't mean too much to my position. Tally Ho Alxa.
It's not quite my worst....yet....
Stock holders meeting/investor conference on the 10th eh? Hopefully Alexza will have met with the FDA and will fully understand what the FDA needs regarding the manufacturing. I would think that the CEO would like to present a more compelling story than that presented at the post-CRL conference (pure fluff). Given that they do understand and the shortfall was/is process related it will/may take a while (months?)to complete for resubmission and re-inspection. I'm not sure how much operating cash they have but this process related work can/could be very expensive and time consuming. I'm sure their heavy hitter investors are not happy with the stock price being under the discounted (~0.50) price they got in at.
As usual with this stock the next 90 days should be interesting. Stay tuned! Let the Alxa weirdness continue.
Not sure there is any $ for the Lawyers to go after here. Doesn't this just erode whatever stockholder confidence is left? Again, another one of those ALXA weird-ities.
I'm sure stock holders could use some ALXA weird-ities that move the stock up for a change....Like a surprise "Only kidding about the CRL...it's all good" memo from FDA! LOL!
Bottom Line (what I think I heard on CC): 1) Managment believes they can get approval by end-of-the year, 2) they don't really know what the deficiencies are the FDA came up with, 3) They will clarify with FDA via an as yet to be scheduled telcon, 4) R/S not yet approved...but sounded (my opinion) like it was a have-to-do, 5) will request a reduced review cycle (think he mentioned 2 months).
I love the last "mad minutes" for this stock.
LOL. Stella Artois here shortly...The Guiness is too much like a meal in a bottle for me!
I'll either be crying in my beer or laughing it up tomorrow!
Thanks for flying with ALXA everyone. Have a safe journey and watch your head as you exit the aircraft. Passengers remaining on board for our next stop please feel free to roam about the cabin and enjoy our complimentary beverages.
Okay...now Brian Orelli, Ph.D. over at The Motley Fool is predicting rejection. I'm not sure I buy his logic and I'm not sure he buys his own logic either...
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/05/03/will-the-fda-approve-alexas-adasuve.aspx
Let the bail out begin. Adam Feuerstein says FDA rejection, Jason Napodano says acceptance. Maybe it will be something no one expects...kind of how this stock runs.
Tomorrow we may be more like the Mary Celeste with no one on board.
From what I see significant buyers will bail before announcement. Not a bad option. Think I'll hold through (hopefully)FDA approval and EMA. Like I've said before...interesting stock.
I bought in at 1.41....Averaged down from there with buys in the sub-0.60 range. Ended up at 0.82 average. Not the smartest move I've ever made.
+0.10 and I'm back to even on this stock. Much better than where I was a week ago...If there is approval I may even make some money. I believe that's why I got into this stock....but it's been such a weird ride I've kind of forgotten.
I suspect Friday after hours....No real information to base this on but, suspect some lively discussion will ensue taking most of the afternoon. With the additional 3 months to study the new REMS and prior single dose panel approval it might go smoother than I expect but....with this stock...I doubt it.
Peter Rumble predicting a 15-20% price increase by Friday over on StockTwits. Otherwise seems pretty quiet...Nothing new from Napodano or Adam Feuerstein. Price pretty stable today...up to this point anyway. No news is good news?