retired
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DC, luckily Linlee pursuaded me to buy the AMZN 40 puts...I really lucked out. As for ASKJ, its getting trashed even tho it had decent numbers..another OSTK?? If thats the case, hold on to your puts!
You are too kind, DC. I didnt practice what I preached tho with regards GOOG. However, I am happy with AMZN's demise. Nice hits on your part with TXU and ASKJ. Keep up the good work on this board.
GOOG: there is a school of thought that the earnings will be stellar (cant imagine it otherwise; CFO must be pulling every trick to ensure blow out earnings). However, there is a belief that it will be a gap and crap scenario. So forget a straddle and buy puts after earnings are released.
thx wellesmont for your input
Steve, sorry, I guess I meant the private post.
Steve, thx for your email. I dont have premium membership so I hafta respond publicly. I would trade funds too but I live in Canada and I dont know of any Cdn fund that would permit active trading. Most apply a 30 day moratorium on the specific fund to prevent flipping.
Btw, what do you think of this daytrading school? For 5g and expenses they will furnish 5 days of face to face tutoring and via email and phone one year mentoring. For most struggling traders 5g is cheap if this course actually works.
http://www.daytradingcourse.com/
Steve, I swing trade stocks but like to dabble in yms too. However, recognizing the correction was ending I went long some SPX calls. I have some 1180s that I hope will double in the next 2 days. From having lurked here a while, I know you trade mostly m/f. You seem to have quite a knack. Congrats.
Btw, dont take my word for it. Here's an old pro's assessment of the current mkt situation:
http://ttheory.typepad.com/terry_laundrys_t_theory_o/
Thanx Steve. You have a good group here. I hope you dont mind me throwing in my 2 cents worth. As far as I can see, the debacle in January was nothing more than a regular correction. I believe Mr. Cash over at his room on Friday noted that commercials have finally covered some of their shorts. This indicates to me the correction is at its end.
From the October 2004 bottom, the SPX and DOW rose 35 and 300 points respectively during the first 2 days of rally. This is setting up to be a similar eruption, what with the positive Iraqi election, dropping oil prices, severely oversold conditions, month end window dressing, and the influx of money at the lst of the month (Feb).
Forget T/A, e-waves, Bradley, or Hurst. Managers will be mad dashing to be first in because they know it is during the lst coupla days that the big money is made.
Dimension, thank you for your response. I will certainly give guotetracker a trial.
Does anyone use IB with Quotetracker? Do they run smooth together? You happy with the setup? TIA
Room malfunctioned. Nevertheless, Dow futures retraced more than 60 points and are looking good for Monday. Looks like we successfully tested the lows this time.
sorry, guess SBUX has either reported or will report tonite
Other notable earnings include VRSN WBSN SBUX tonite and SBUX AMGEN tomorrow
Thx I38. Obviously I dont understand futures enough. I better do some homework :)
Thx for responding Arj. However, the potential is compelling. With equities the writer actually has to put up capital for the underlying security. With futures, he needs only to put up margin. Even if we are to write options at the bid and buy at the ask, providing the index is above our starting point by March expiration, we will have taken in a lot of premium for moderate risk.
Mr. I38K, you seem to be an astute ES trader. Tell me why this wont work. Buy an ES contract and write 1 ES March 1180 call for about $18. Use part of the proceed to buy a bearish spread as hedge, ie, long 1 March ES 1170 put and short 1 March ES 1125 put. This hedge costs about $13. So right off the bat you make $5. If S&P remains above 1170 at March expiration, you net at least $5 and maximally $15. If S&P threatens to break below 1125, close all positions. By this time the 1170 call will be worth a trifle (maybe $5 which is offset by the initial $5 net). The bear spread will have mostly offset the losing ES position. Largely, it will be a break even with the bearish scenario. However, with a bullish outcome, we could potentially gain $15 for each ES position.
Could this not work?
Mr. Cash, historically, after an extended decline the first bounce is usually short lived and the lows are tested and broken before a sustained uptrend ensues. Where do you estimate this bounce will terminate?
Lee Kramer, thx for responding. Actually I went to the CBOT site and got the answer. The options work pretty much like buying Diamond (DIA) options. They are boring! So I can understand why you wouldnt trade YM options :). ES options make more sense but they are illiquid. Playing SPX options would be the route to take.
DC, SBUX reporting Wed. What ya think? Have they saturated the N. American market? Are they facing increasing competition? $55 seems a little rich. Could SBUX behave like EBAY last week??
Lee Kramer, do you ever trade YM options? Why and why not? Are they liquid. I see the March 10400 going for $201 per contract. What does that mean. Its only when the dow hits 10440 (201/5) will the contract be itm? TIA
Nix IGT. I thought it had to do with online gambling. SYMC on the long side is looking good so far tho.
For that matter, SYMC reporting after Wed. close is worth a look. I already have the 25 calls. Will look to buy some cheap hedge.
DC, how about IGT which reports Thursday? Online gambling has reached feverish heights.
Is the US market open on Monday? TIA
Thanx Lee. Now I know what I do isnt necessarily wrong.
Hi Lee, how many points do you allow before stopping out of a YM trade? I just signed up with Interactive Brokers and am considering playing some YM. Do you use a stop limit or a trailing stop? Thanx for any pointers.
Lately Alexis seems to be wearing more makeup, as if covering up a blemish. Just a month or so ago she always appeared radiant, sporting a healthy glow, like she worked out regularly. Now she looks tired and smiling is an effort. Perhaps the dual role of motherhood and business reporter are finally taxing her to the limit. Hope she gets a little rest over the holidays.
Actually, 2 respected posters, Dew Diligence (GENR IHUB)and Eventhorzg (on CNVX Yahoo board)are still very bullish on OSIP, despite the run-up. They feel there is yet more upside for this behemoth for the following reasons:
*Europe and Japan approval for Tarceva pending;
*Pricing of Tarceva at 2000/treatment way low and now with
Iressa all but gone could be jacked up;
*Theres a real possibility that DNA will gobble up OSIP.
Because of these pursuasive arguments I have taken up a position in the Jan. 65 calls. Merry Christmas DC and all.
Woes me DC. Sold my OSIP Dec 50 calls on Tuesday for $1.50. Who woulda thunk Iressa would stink out the joint like that?!! Bet the AZN insiders bought the OSIP Dec 50s at 20 cents yesterday before releasing the bombshell this am. They hafta make up for their forfeited bonuses somehow....arrrrrrrrrgh!
DC, thats what I thought until I examined closely the terms. Apparently, becoz I registered under a corporation for better tax treatment, I am categorized as a "professional"..duh? Anyway, "professionals" dont get the cheapie deals. I have to pay $55/month for Nasdaq level I and option exchanges. Oh well, this is still cheaper than my old brokerage.
Anybody use Interactive Brokers? Do you subscribe to all stock data. For my purposes, I think NYSE, Nasdaq level I and Options exchanges are all I need. I dont day trade per se so Nasdaq level II is not needed. Do you recommend otherwise?
Anybody use Interactive Brokers? Do you subscribe to all stock data. For my purposes, I think NYSE, Nasdaq level I and Options exchanges are all I need. I dont day trade per se so Nasdaq level II is not needed. Do you recommend otherwise?
Hawkeye, thanx for the prompt response. Sure looks good for CVQ
CVQ.V: anyone know what the story is, why it keeps going up? TIA
AGIX: looks like gap is filled. It could run a bit. Pharmas may fear that if ARISE proves AG 1067 is the real thing, that their statin sales could be devastated. Someone may make a pre emptive strike and swallow up AGIX. For example, Pfizer has a per annum billion dollar boy in Lipitor to protect. It may be cheaper to buy out AGIX. Pfizer would hafta do it before ARISE results are released; otherwise, the price tag could quadruple.
Thanx for the heads up DC. I didnt realize OSIP was reporting this coming monday before the open. That could be another reason the option premiums are inflated.
OSIP: Now I understand why the otm Dec. calls held their value despite a declining stock. Traders are buying a straddle in OSIP ahead of the release of survival data for Iressa, the competing drug to OSIP's Tarceva. AZN is expected to release the findings by year end which is approaching fast. Linlee and Checkers: I hope you read this. I have the calls and now will look to hedge with puts.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4651660
CVTX's Ranexa appears to have 2 serious side effects, prolongation of QT interval and testicular toxicity. I cant imagine any doctor would use it to control angina only to have the patient die from atrial fibrillation. There are plenty good medications in existence to battle angina. I would say the chance of Ranexa getting approved is only 50%
Sage advice for those trading GOOG. Courtesy Cthruu
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20707093
Trading parabolic runs:
This is a lesson one should not forget. I am posting my past experiences - the stocks that made parabolic runs come down just as fast. Therefore one must respect a reversal stick from an exhaustion gap - or as Steve Nison would say, a "dark cloud cover".
The charts show IOM in 1996; QCOM weekly in 2000 and GOOG now. Everyone knows what happened next in cases of IOM and QCOM. If not, ask me and I will post follow up charts for those.
My next move will depend upon what GOOG does over the next couple of days. If GOOG makes another gap up and fails, I will be short. If it tries to reverse up from here, I will stay with it - look at 10/20 and 10/21 when they tried to shake off the weak hands if front of the earnings. If they are inside days I will stay put. Ready to turn on a dime - or in GOOG terms, a few dollars. This was one of the reasons why I unloaded a bunch of ITM calls yesterday.
I do not want to forget the lessons that keep on repeating every four years.
Just my opinion :)