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AMP I would just add that management will not reveal any positive news in response to these kind of inquiries for fear of another lawsuit. I suspect that they just have to keep on serving up plain vanilla answers out of an abundance of caution. They can hardly be expected to go into BOD discussions about future plans with anyone outside of the BOD.
Rachel had nothing figured much less HB.
What did Rachel M. know? Nothing.
If anything, the outlook for Ariad has improved in recent months. Because there isn't a great deal of institutional love, the ops is vulnerable to all sorts of market weakness which exaggerates pps movements. This is not the stock for nervous nellies.
There is concerted selling today and yesterday following the ambiguous EM result. However, this seems just some intolerance by traders rather insight from investors
2da I would think that you might bring back the earlier mantra that worked so well for so long in the face of a host of disappointments - "Know what you own."
There is a lot more to be known at this point and good reason to be a buyer. Just consider for a moment what a fair buyout price would be. It would certainly be multiples of today's pps.
The news may not come out today, but if a decision has been made then we should expect to see some leakage effect in the pps as reflected in a divergence from the IBB. There seems to be a bit of positive divergence at the moment though that could change by the end of the day.
Ariad still just tracking the IBB. July is historically the weakest part of the year for them and usually the best time to buy.
As you might have realized already, this sell off is not centered on Ariad.
Or, to settle the shareholder law suit?
My guess is that just about everyone gets it but there's no point in addressing it because it can't be constructive addressed.
The hopium enthusiasm is gone with the black eye. So now, it's just show me the money.
If they have the goods, the money will follow.
Would you be kind enough to reveal what you know about the "deliberate control of the share price" in Ariad shares?
2da Unfortunately the court case is not a toss up. The only question now is just how big a bite will it take. Probably less than might have been first thought but not chump change.
That kind of assertion about Ariad stock price manipulation is just ridiculous IMO.
How does "control" work?
That, in my opinion and with all due respect, is some real wishful thinking.
2da You might be right about Maria saying it but no one took back. That HB brought up issuing stock doesn't mean it is a real option. In contrast to rum, I suspect that the Blackrock filing just says where the FMR shares went for the time being.
2da You and others keep talking as if Ariad could actually go to the market with a secondary. When HB said that that window was closed, I don't think he was wrong and I don't think underwriters have changed their opinion of Ariad since then.
In my opinion, Ariad only has two options now 1.) partner and 2.) sell the company. Both work better than another stock issuance even if it were possible (which it isn't). I think that HB would sell if the offer was there and it was enticing. THe partnerships are probably the only option in the short term so then the question is which one(s) and for how much. THe sale of the company will follow when there is more visibility regarding the value of the drugs in the stable.
AMP Your approach post crash is really the only way to go - new day. Also, I agree that it means a great deal that the team remains intact. Even better, they are talking less. Looking forward to the new molecule in a few months. Seems like we have been waiting forever for this one.
Would you be satisfied with $8.50? You might have to be.
Unlikely that anyone is trying to scare you or anyone else.
Nothing sinister here. Pps just reflects the behavior of a crushed stock with a pretty good outlook.
The fact that Ariad's management proceeds with sound business practices doesn't indicate that they would be averse to accepting a fair buyout offer.
No, because HB's and Coles terms already extend to that date. This just synchronizes the terms of all the executives.
I disagree. This drop is well within a normal range given how the NASDQ and biotech averages have dropped. Nothing sinister - just huge volatility.
This sharp down move is not about Ariad. However, Ariad was over due for a drop like this in this kind of market. So here it is. If you area believer and still have a few buck left, the price is looking more and more attractive.
The short sellers and algos are really smashing all biotechs and have been doing so for a few days. It will pass and rationality will eventually prevail again. The only question is when.
Dew - I would appreciate your thoughts on buying MNTA at these levels given the judicial overhang. IMO, the court will rule against Teva. If the court rules for Teva, what do you see as the downside risk - short term. Long term the risk just doesn't seem to be there.
If you want to know what is happening with Ariad right now just look at the IBB.
Sure, HB should take Dew's advice and follow it to the literal letter.
One clear upside is short covering. The sizable short position has been disproportionately large for some time now in comparison to the actual downside risk.
2da - I think that if Denner likes what he see on the inside, he will be able to place stock. Then the financing problem just goes away.
I guess that could be useful if there is another big drop.
IM - You are attacking a straw horse of your own making. Nothing that you are saying addresses the concern I voiced about Clackson. No amount of capital letters will move the ball one inch forward.
You might reread Clackson's comments on Iclusig's AEs. His remarks may not have been intentionally misleading but the effect was to obscure significant events that occurred with the drug. Over optimism has no place in true scientific discussion. So, despite his deep knowledge, what he says must be taken with a bit of caution.
Don't know where you pick up the frustration from since I have done very well with Ariad over many years. The Whole story is in how HB negotiates the future. For now he is still in control; but, that will change within six months and how it changes will depend on that path he chooses for an exit. If he tries to hold on, it will delay a fair market valuation of Ariad for a while. If he exits gracefully at stage left, the market will reward him promptly.
STOCKSEEK - We are in the 7-8 range because HB did not manage the info on the AE's well - the shorts are not depressing the price they are just taking advantage of a serious misstep.
The game afoot is a proxy war and control of the BOD. Therefore, there will be considerable interest in the stock.
HB will loose control one way or another either internally through adversaries on the BOD or externally through a forced merger to escape the advance on the BOD.
Hmmm - a reverse crash.
Turns out that the shorts are as irrational as the longs.
Perhaps you should not think about what you write so quickly.
Today's late move might be from the news that Pona apparently enhances the effect of chemotherapy. For more on this see the last post by jaybe on SI.