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You guys just don't get it...the issue is all about DILUTION - TPW is a major mining company project being funded by a $.15 junior.
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.ca/2012/09/both-gold-and-silver-have-broken-down.html
lol - $.19 is 19% of $1.00 therefore $1.00 would be a 523% increase from current levels and 909% increase from the $.11 low.
Stated a different way, assuming they raise another $10mm at (hopefully) $.20, the 200mm share float would be worth $200 million market cap or a value per ounce of $133.33 versus the current $25-35 per ounce being granted junior gold developers.
Of course, with gold at $5,000 per ounce, the value per ounce will be $200/oz for developers so EXS will be worth $1.50 and then with Destinator's 30mm ounces multiply that by 10 to arrive at $15.00 per share and we all retire.
MDO will look like genuises from 2010 when they restated the BUY at $1.50 looking for $2.25 on "technicals"...
GLTA
EXSFF is now ready to advance but ignore the Kool-Aid and focus upon ounces, market capitalization, and dilution. I never doubted the geology but expensive projects like this sometimes require inordinate amounts of patience that large shareholders are not prepared for.
Explor Short Interest is virtually zero so if you think that taking delivery of the shares will make it go back to $.50, think twice.
Explor short interest
Absolutely astounding the level of denial in this forum. At current levels, this company's shares are a decent speculative gamble, IF one accepts the model.
From James' Gold Report interview:
COMPANIES MENTIONED: AFRICA OIL CORP. - EFL OVERSEAS INC. - GOLDQUEST MINING CORP. - HUNTER BAY MINERALS PLC - NEWSTRIKE CAPITAL INC. - ORBITE ALUMINAE INC. - SEAFIELD RESOURCES LTD. - TERRA NOVA MINERALS INC. - TINKA RESOURCES LTD.
The Gold Report: Not so long ago, mining promoters—larger-than-life personalities who revved up retail investors about stocks—were an essential part of the junior mining business. But the NI 43-101 limits how much company presidents and CEOs can tout their stocks. Do promoters still have a role or have they disappeared from the scene?
James West: Promoters have not disappeared from the scene. Yes, the NI 43-101 puts a filter on how public companies communicate with the market, but promoters are essential to the life cycle of public companies.
Geology versus Geometry; perception versus reality; optimism versus blind faith; and investment versus a "trade". You need $150 million to get underground in order to demonstrate without doubt that the HMC Model has been validated. You need to chase veins the way the old Welsh tin miners were doing at Hollinger for years and years. You need an "event" that shakes the clutches of this bear market in junior developers and Explor off once and for all. I think that "event" is the arrival of a major mining company onto the scene with a fat treasury and a vision. Even if EXS gave up 70% interest in TPW, the elimination of the "perception" of "infinite dilution" would double or triple the price in a NY minute. I'd rather be richly anonymous than famously poor any day of the week.
Good luck you. D. Let me know the next deal you will be working on...
I understood that a positive drill hole was met with incompressible selling - what is so surprising about that? And what is this "Gold Magazine Issuer" all about?
BTW, excellent letter by IN_XS to EXS management. No slams, just really solid questions.
I stand corrected - my point was that a superb hole and one of many to come was met with a negative market response, just as Explor's glory hole met with a negative response back in January. These are tough markets...
Read the release Desti - 7.3 g/t over 50m within which they had 13.7 m of 209 g/t - WAY better than the glory hole.
That is what a great many investors were saying to us back in Dec/2008 when tax-loss selling/capitulation/panic allowed Pastorboy and others to average down in the $.085-.13 range. Thirteen months later, the stock hit $1.63. Fortunes were made as quickly as enemies as some sold into the move and others didn't. I see the current Risk/Reward being greatly in favour of ownership versus liquidation but the tenor of the discussion tells me that the supply at $.30 will be enormous.
I am not negative at all - I am a realist. I own shares and have been here since 2007. I have been through the whole gamut with Explor and continue to be amazed by the geology in the Abitibi. In these markets, pompoms no longer work just as at $.15, bashing doesn't either.
no - there never was a "failed financing" so you are indeed posting non-factual information, which, by the way, will not make the stock price advance.
[quotIve used this opportunity to buy more shares to the point that have gotten my price paid down to .30 from the .70's. There is always a silver lining to a negative situation if you look for it. e][/quote]
Now THAT is the smartest thing I have read in this forum EVER...no finger-pointing, no blame....just like 2008 when I missed taking profits on some $.20 stock in the mid-.80's before a crash to $.085. Did I blame anyone? I did - ME. I spoke to CD today and he is going to continue doing EXACTLY what he has done since 2007 - drill, analyze, plan, raise money, drill...Rinse and repeat.
Great post, BR.
How does XG crashing from $14.84 to $4.20 and now "done like dinner" translate into an Explor-bullish event? I am not as bright as some in here and since I don't "get it", would someone please explain?
Extorre got taken out because they could not secure financing for some of their larger projects - at less than a third of the 52-week high ($14.84). I see this as incredibly bullish for well-funded juniors with low CAPEX requirements.
http://www.sprott.com/market-insights/gold-alerts/gold-alert-june-8,-2012/
Great report on gold demand and price forecasts...maybe it will spill over into excitement for Explor.
At Eastford Lake, Explor drilled 40 FEET of HALF-OUNCE gold in July 2008 and it took the stock from $.30 to $.90 in six days of trading. Mind you, we had just finished a p.p. @ $.20 and there were a mere 28mm shares issued at the time. Different beast today. Destinator knows this though - might have thought he would mention it.
We all sincerely hope that "things are good" and no one moreso than I. Hopefully market conditions improve and they all catch a bid. Then there won't be anyone to blame for bad decisions and lousy luck.
If the next results are good, it will depend on "how good?". KAM reported great results and is still HALF of its 52-week high. Investors HATE junior developers right now.
I think the lows were put in a few days ago in the $1,525-1,530 range. I bought the August $1,850 Crimex calls at $2.30 the day before we turned and think we'll see gold at $2,100 after the June 20th FOMC meeting is over. The only way they solve the Eurozone problem is to collateralize the debt with those CB bullion holdings. The real dollar/Euro debt levels are finite and the eurozone gold in tonnes is finite so if you calculate what the variable has to got to in order to adequately collateralize the liability, you get a ridiculous number. But that is the only solution left outside of default.
I see $1,650 as the big resistance near term but the downside risk is maybe $100 from here. HOWEVER, the big move is in the GDX and/or GDXJ so I like the NUGT-US as a levered play on the gold miner/explorers which have never in the 40 years I have studied gold been so cheap.
The TSX Venture is going to be the last one to move because the big dough needs liquidity and volumes on the TSXV are now down to post-Bre-X levels as we all can see from the lack of bids in EXSFF (and the rest). Kaminak reported great news from Coffee today and the market yawned. I see a slow summer for the group unless you have a really big NEW discovery because developers are being ignored like the plague. After the move in the big boys like Goldcorp and Panmerican, the intermediates will move followed by the "pennies" so the better my NUGT does, the sooner the juniors will recover.
As for EXSFF, I am using trading profits in the seniors to accumulate the "pennies". Best advice is that you put your Explor shares in your safety deposit box and revisit them in Q1/2013. I would guess we will see $.50 by then which is a 300% return from CURRENT levels and that ain't too shabby. (That would be an $85 million market cap.)
Gold in a Deflationary Collapse
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/things-make-you-go-hmmm-such-spread-between-gold-and-gold-miners
This clears up the debate: Gold is THE deflation hedge.
Reading Jim Rickards book "Currency Wars" this weekend...astounds me how anyone can think that the Germans (with 3,402 tonnes) will sit around and let the non-performing Eurozone countries hold them ransom. My bet is that Greece will still be in the Eurozone long after Germany has exited.
Junior Market has Bottomed: TSX Venture Exchange 1217 as of last Thursday when I sent a Note to Friends Email. Book it.
This is NOT a "pump" designed to allow me to sell my stock. This is NOT a "pump" because I re-loaded EXSFF. This is a comment. Just like when I warned Desti against his pump back in January.
My largest junior holding is up HUGE this year. You all know what it is. Good structures work; bad ones don't.
EXSFF is a buy here.
MDO
I checked the site under WhisperStocks and there was nothing on EXSFF.
Clive Maund on the Juniors
Anyone wish to discuss the merits of Explor in here instead of pointing fingers?
I already replied to that earlier but as always, it got deleted because it doesn't fit with someone's "conspiracy theory". If any underwriter raises $28mm for a junior over three years and at the end of that period, the company has a valuation BELOW the amount raised, then that money was obviously spent in a manner which failed to add to shareholder value. The underwriter, whether Union, Canaccord, TD - ANY underwriter - expects to see the money raised ADD VALUE for shareholders. It is you the shareholder that should be disgusted that the company is trading at half of the value of the money raised (and spent) since 2007. The underwriter doesn't spend the money and the underwriter doesn't manage the business. They put up dough in good faith and hope that management delivers.
Here is a clip from the Dec/2007 MD&A:
"INFORMATION ON OUTSTANDING SHARES
As at October 31, 2007, the share capital of Explor Resources Inc. is composed of 33,709,880 common shares, issued and outstanding. As at the date of this MD&A, the share capital of the Company is composed of 40,840,877 common shares issued and outstanding."
During the month of December 2007, Explor traded in a range of $.255-.30 meaning that it carried a range of value between $10mm and $12.5mm a full two years before the Timmins Porcupine Property was acquired.
Here we are in 2012 (4.4 years later) and there are 148,941,993 shares outstanding and the value of the business is $23.08mm. The value of the company has DOUBLED while the price per share is 50% lower.
So on the comments regarding the role if the underwriter - any underwriter - in "causing" the current share price decline, the facts are clear. $40 million raised in four years; $23mm current value. Additionally, the market's decline has taken the developer's value/ounce down from $100/oz. in 2010 to $20-25 today. EXSFF has 800,000 ounces so they are worth $16m-$20m when measured against its peers. (And whether or not you believe that Explor is sitting on the next Hollinger-McIntyre monster deposit will not be relevant until risk appetites change.)
I hope this clears up the current fixation on "who caused the stock to drop". The answer is that it really doesn't matter what or who or why: EXSFF Management must find a way to deliver value for shareholders. That is why I believe that EXSFF is either AT or APPROACHING a level where the valuation is compelling relative to the risk-versus-reward potential.
Gold up $10 tonight - rumour circulating of a massive "QE" throughout the G8 to get the Eurobanks solvent again.
Destinator - to be quite frank - I don't answer to you in this forum. Any investor that accepted the model back in 2011 also accepted the risk and the volatility. There were a number of investors that did NOT accept the model (obviously) and sold into the glory hole news. There were other investors that bought into the story that DID accept the model. I have been a shareholder since early 2007 so I obviously accepted the model as well. The drill hole news and the "dumping" was a temporary halt in the stock price. What about the webcast where an entirely new set of "dumpers" sold stock? Then at sub-$.30, EXSFF announces a surprise financing and submarines the investors that bought the $.40 funding in late 2011. Then THEY torched the stock in millions of shares of angry selling down to the low $.20's as retribution for diluting them.
Tomberry is right about one thing - all of the wonderful stories he has heard in here have resulted in a $.135 stock price. He has a point. Something is not working. The tape is telling you that.