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Jalase, the market doesn't want talk anymore, it wants results. Until we get them, this is where we're going to be.
From everything I've heard about Doug, the guy works his ass off and surrounds himself with good people so I'm not going to bash the guy at all. I'm sure that there will come a point where the culmination of everything he's been working on (most of which he probably don't know about yet) will end up driving the share price substantially higher, but the share price action right now is really disappointing. I can't blame Doug or anyone else for this, this is just one of those types of stocks where you just have to sit back, let it play out and hope you can stomach the swings.
That said, if Doug's sitting on anything positive that he can talk about, I hope he does it on the earnings call because the share price action should be sending him a message loud and clear right now. If this earnings comes and goes with nothing new, it seems like we're heading to the $4's, which is a buying opportunity I don't really want.
I have no doubt that there are some really exciting things on the horizon, however the only question in my mind is how low is the share price going to go before something substantive is announced. It seems that at this point some shareholders are just sick of waiting and are moving on. I'm not one of them as I can see the potential here (I actually bought a few more shares today in the mid $5.40's and will continue to nibble here and there), but the frustration level is evident in the share price action.
Honestly, my biggest concern is if there is a setback prior to a big settlement announcement and the impact that would have on the share price. I'm just hoping they announce a major settlement before too long so we can start to see a sustained uptrend begin and eventually hit a new 52 week high.
I'm confused yanquit....did you sell the puts? Because if you bought the puts you just bet on the share price falling unless there's something I'm missing...
Mike, I agree the share price is disappointing and I think there are multiple reasons for that. 1) The sector is totally out of favor right now 2) I think the share price just got ahead of itself after a great Q3 and a disappointing Q4 3) The market wants to see the Q3 results replicated.
I don't think that the current share price has anything to do with IR. Jason is a great, seasoned IR guy and I suspect that his interests are very much aligned with the shareholders'. As Doug sort of alluded to on the call, I think there are some major things in the works and that Doug is working on a lot of stuff behind the scenes and that is consuming most of his time at the moment. I also believe when these things come to fruition, we'll be happy that he dedicated his time to them instead of trying to pump up the share price temporarily.
As you said, you spoke with Doug and you know that he is a smart, ectremely hard-working guy. You also know he has a substantial investment in MARA and wants the share price substantially higher than it currently is, and more importantly, he wants future share price gains to be sustainable, so I would trust that he knows what he's doing and what is the best way to allocate his time to have the maximum long-term positive impact on the company and the share price.
I understand that you have just recently been buying in and are excited about the company's prospects (as we all are), but let's take a look at the big picture: even after the pullback, MARA is still up 80% off the 52 week low. Jason in IR's hard work and dedication to MARA work has had a lot to do with this. Honestly, the way I'm looking at it, the fact that MARA may have a somewhat limited audience right now is a gift as it has allowed me to accumulate a good # of shares at prices that I think are screaming bargains and will provide me with great returns in the not-too-distant future. Just have a little bit of patience and please don't come on here pointing fingers at people who have busted their ass for the benefit of MARA shareholders.
Definitely looks like there was a pre-arranged sale to clean out the seller. Now if we could get any sort of aggressive buying it looks like we could be back closer to the $6.50 range in short order.
Joking about what?
Thanks flyers. I didn't recall hearing anything about that and figured it would've come up if it were a big deal.
Is anyone here other than me buying shares today?
If lots of stuff were to get pushed to 2016, I'd hate to see what the share price looked like when things finally started happening. That being said, based on Doug's tone on the call, I get the feeling we're really close on some major things happening.
Jalase, I expressed the same sentiment myself today in a conversation with someone. In looking at the chart, it would seem like it would take something pretty bad for this to drop below $5.50. My quandary has another component as well: given the nature of the business, it may not base. Any one of multiple announcements could come out at any time and we could wake up to the stock being up $1 or $2....
jdno, you seem to post everything I'm thinking before I post it. I wouldn't read too much into Doug's comment that "it will be a fun Q2, Q3 and Q4" as Q1 was basically already over yesterday when he did the call. That being said, if I had to go with an estimate for Q1 I'd go with flyers' estimate because a) From this and a previous investment, he basically doesn't say things unless he's pretty certain he knows what he's talking about and b) though Doug said he couldn't comment on his revenue projection for Q1, he did say he thought his modeling was pretty accurate, and if he had been way off in his estimate, I think Doug would've found a way to project that.
flyers, great questions on the CC. Those were some of the exact questions I wanted answered so I'm glad Doug answered them.
I thought Doug did a great job giving more color on this call than he did on the Q3 call. On the Q4 call, it seems like there were a ton of "I can't answer that" replies whereas this time he seemed to be a little more open to providing hints of things to come. All in all, I thought this CC was much better than the Q3 call. All in all, I'm really excited about the future here and it seems like we're extremely close to an inflection point here....
Agree with everything that you said but I will clarify one thing based on my understanding: Croxall didn't predict $100 million in revenue PER YEAR in 3-5 years. He said he expected their entire existing patent portfolio at that time (which has obviously expanded significantly since the time he made this statement) to generate a TOTAL of $100 million over the course of the next 3-5 years.
We just need to get these Q4 earnings out of the way. I don't think there's any doubt that they sucked, but it should only be up from there for awhile.
One other thing that may be weighing on the stock a little bit is Northland's revenue estimate of $25 million for FY 2015. I think people were expecting substantially more than that. I've seen #'s thrown out at around $50 million+ I believe, so while their estimated $12 price target is nice, the revenue outlook for this year was disappointing and I don't think supports a $12 share price in the near-term. Hopefully there will be a couple of sizable settlements/wins and MARA beats that estimate handily well before the end of the year. I also wasn't thrilled with Northland saying that owning MARA stock was akin to owning a patent-related mutual fund. I bought this stock believing (and I still believe) that there is explosive upside, something not usually associated with a mutual fund. While the price target didn't seem conservative to me, the analysis did.
I still have confidence in management and believe that the stock will be a multi-bagger in the near future. There should potentially be many positive catalysts to move the stock higher in the near-term after we get Q4 earnings out of the way. The window of opportunity to get in cheap will be short-lived after Q4 earnings are announced, and I plan on taking advantage of it.
"FIG financing terms that would imply a minimum of $60M in revs over the next year"
jdno, just as an FYI, an amended filing was made clarifying that it actually implied A MINIMUM $15 million in revenue over the next 12 months. The original filing said at least $15 million per quarter.
While I agree with you about the stock split (I actually think it was a good idea, I just think the timing was wrong), I'd also like to point out that when people from a generally almost unanimously positive board start to mix it up a little bit, that could be a signal that a bottom is near. Retesting the previous low isn't the end of the world from a TA perspective, we just need to stay above it.
hispeed, I agree with just about everything you just posted. I was just explaining to Ed that IMO there are some short-term factors weighing on the stock and that I don't think that there is any terrible news lurking behind the scenes.
When I first invested in MARA, I said to another investor "based on the fact that they aren't able to say much due to the settlement agreements, we're basically flying blind for three months at a time".
I knew that when I bought the stock and I'm fine with it. I do believe that Doug and his team are saying what they can. They have delivered and I believe will continue to deliver. The explosive upside we saw with the Q3 results are the upside to this type of investment. What we're seeing now is the downside. I think we'll all end up doing well here, I'm just hoping that a bunch of substantive good news starts flowing in soon.
In that vein, any idea what today's presumed settlement could potentially be worth?
I agree with everything you wrote Porscha. I have a good amount of my own money tied up in the stock and believe in the long-term they're going to be just fine.
Here's my thought: when they started out, they'd buy a portfolio and monetize it. Then they'd buy another one that was a little more expensive and then they'd monetize that. The share price was stair-stepping higher nicely, almost in lock-step. Then it got to the point where the amount and cost of the portfolios they purchased starting increasing exponentially, but we haven't seen much in the way of results yet. Throw in a stock split adding pressure on the stock, and I can see why there is a lot of uncertainty. Obviously, if they're able to secure a few large settlements on some of these higher-dollar value portfolios, the positives will be exponential as well. In the interim, we're in a holding pattern.
Ed, it's not TERRIBLE news but it's not encouraging news either. The reason that the share price has been under pressure is because the timing of the stock split was bad, there has been no major news on the settlement front reported in awhile, the entire sector has been under pressure due to patent reform and Q4 was likely not close to as good as Q3 was.
As I've said before (and it sounds like you agree), they need to announce a major win on one of these newly-acquired, higher-priced portfolios before the stock is going anywhere. Until then, everything else is just noise. I believe that they'll deliver, I just don't know when and how much of a beating the stock will take in the interim. If they don't announce anything pertaining to a major settlement prior to Q4 earnings being released, it could get real ugly. That's my biggest concern.
I have no reason to believe that anything terrible is going on with the company, but the bottom line is that they need to deliver a major settlement soon.
Let's not "spin" it at all. Let's give honest, unbiased opinions based on the information known at the time. Trying to spin everything as a positive starts to reek of desperation and the people doing it lose credibility. That's all I'm saying, so take it for what it's worth (which is probably about what you paid for it).
Hispeed, everyone knows officers leaving isn't positive. Especially two in a month. You provide some great research and insight here, but please stop trying to spin everything as a positive. When you make a statement like "the resignation letter inspires confidence", it starts to appear that you have blinders on.
I'm not saying that the departure of these officers portends something terrible is going on, and I haven't sold any shares, but there's no way it can be spun as a positive IMO.
I'm not an expert, but what I can tell you is that until the company reports something substantive re: a major settlement or two, the stock will at best be in limbo and likely trending lower. We've had announcements on a non-dilutive financing (positive IMO) and a stock split/dividend (which put pressure on the stock and IMO was done at the wrong time) etc. I also think everyone pretty much agrees that Q4 was probably not close to as good as Q3 was and is putting additional pressure on the stock. Throw in the weakness of the overall sector and the result is what you're seeing here.
I'm confident that management is working on a lot of things internally which will create shareholder value in the long-term that we don't know about, but the market wants to see results, and until they deliver them, we're probably going to see more of the same. To a large extent, this is out of managements' hands as they can't force people to settle so in the interim, the only thing they do is what they have been doing: capitalize on opportunities to enhance shareholder value so when this perceived settlement drought ends, they'll be able to deliver outstanding results.
I'm surprised that the market isn't looking at this financing more favorably. Instead, it looks like someone is using the opportunity to unload shares. The only thing I can think of is that people want to see them successfully monetize some of the high-dollar patents they purchased recently before they go purchasing more.
Wondering if whoever was selling is done. There was a lot of volume this morning on the drop to $6.40, then a reversal on nice volume as well. Tomorrow's open will be telling IMO, because during this decline, it sells off just about every morning on a decent-sized chunk of shares being dropped on the market. If that doesn't happen tomorrow, it will be very constructive. The fact today that we had a higher low and a higher high than on Friday along with a major intraday reversal bodes well also.
In regard to not getting through the 100 MA, there may be potential buyers who didn't want to feel like they were chasing it too far today after the intraday reversal and prefer to wait to see if there's follow-through on the positive trading action tomorrow. Also, after the market closes and stockcharts updates, I'm sure will be some technical traders entering tomorrow because MARA will likely show up on some of the stockcharts scans showing companies who had reversal patterns the previous day.
The stock was just extremely oversold and looking at the chart and watching the trading action, it definitely looked like it was nearing a bottom. It's been awhile since we got any substantive news so people may also just be thinking that they'll hear something about something soon.
I bought a pretty decent number of shares today as well, between $6.50-$6.55. I still have a few more shares to buy, but will have to wait until tomorrow at the open when there are a decent number of shares on the ask. While I also can't call a bottom, the trading action over the past few days seems like a bottoming process to me. The chart says it can go slightly lower but hitting the exact bottom isn't my goal, I just wanted to buy back most of my shares at a decent price and wait for some positive events to unfold.
From a TA perspective, everything points to a bottom at $6-$6.35. There is major support at around $6.00. The 200 day SMA is at $6.08. The 200 day EMA is at $6.35. I don't think there's a big shorter, which is what everyone who is bullish on a stock likes to blame when the stock has a prolonged decline. If you think about it, the reason for the 2-1 "dividend" (split) was to increase liquidity. The only way for liquidity to be increased is if people who own the new shares sell some. That's what's going on, but there just isn't enough demand for the shares right now so the stock is dropping. It was a good idea, the timing was just not ideal with uncertainty on multiple fronts (patent reform, potentially weak Q4 etc) which created not only a lack of demand for the stock but also at the same time, some people also getting a little antsy and selling.
I already own some shares, but I have a decent amount of cash on the sidelines and I'm going to start making some more buys if I can get some at around $6.50. Long-term, all signs point to the company doing very well and rewarding investors buying in at these levels, however due to the nature of the IP monetization business, there will be some extraordinary trading opportunities along the way for those who are proficient at TA IMO, as the stock has been a TA trader's dream so far. I believe those who choose to buy and hold will do very well also, and I'd suggest anyone looking to start a position begin to do so under $6.75 so you have a piece of it in case big news hits, but I'd definitely phase in with multiple buys at or around key technical levels.
Real nice volume (and price action) for a Friday, especially since most of it came toward the end of the day. I wonder if something's cooking? Or maybe people who wanted to get in but were waiting for (or shorted into) the S-3 filing have realized that the shares are in strong hands. Or maybe the market is starting to understand the implications of the MedTech ruling. I don't know, but whatever the reason, I like it!
From a TA perspective, we need to break above the previous high of $16.40 and hopefully run to the $20 range, at which point the trading range should increase to $15-17 on pullbacks. So far the stock moves have been a perfect example of a long-term winner from a TA perspective. Hopefully that will continue until it explodes to the upside.
It's all good hispeed. Thanks for clarifying and thanks for your contributions to the board. They're really insightful and I enjoy reading them.
hispeed, was the date in your original post an error? The original post re: the google settlement said 10/06.
Investentialist, if you haven't already, you may want to go back and read the conversation here earlier re: when some of these revenues from the Selene and Clouding settlements may have been recognized. It's possible that the up-front revenue from some or all of these settlements was reported in Q3 as part of the $13.5 million. I don't know if they were or weren't included in Q3, but it's some food for thought.
I really hope that management provides some color on which settlements were included in which quarter(s) on the CC so investors have some idea which of the recently-reported settlements will generate revenue for the company in Q4 and which (if any) were included in Q3. Long-term it doesn't really matter as long as the company continues their stellar execution, but as an investor, the more information, the better.
If we're doing an apples to apples comparison of ACTG and MARA (and actually any two companies), you would want to use enterprise value which strips the cash/debt from each company and provides a more accurate picture of what multiples the underlying businesses are actually being valued at. Being that ACTG has over $225 million in cash and no debt, this is an important consideration. We also need to consider the fact that ACTG pays a dividend (which I don't think it would be smart for MARA to do at this point, I'd rather see them retain earnings and use them to continue to grow their patent portfolios).
Either way, it appears that MARA is extremely undervalued here in relation to ACTG, but just not as much as a market cap comparison would indicate.
$40 million seems pretty high to me for this year and I'd really appreciate some insight as to how you came up with it. MARA makes up a large % of my portfolio, but I have no reason NOT to believe that the $13.6 million quarter was an anomaly due to the timing of one or two major settlements, of which similar settlements may or may not occur on an ongoing basis.
There are a lot of moving parts here: newly-purchased patents of different potential in different stages of potential monetization, existing patents with different sized average settlements in different stages of potential monetization etc. At this point, I think it's impossible to predict what annual revenues will be for this year. I think the only certainty is that revenues will probably be very lumpy going forward. Croxall and team just need to continue to purchase high-quality portfolios with high probabilities of success for pennies on the dollar and the share price will take care of itself. So far they've done a great job doing that and I see no reason they won't continue to do so.
If you are, I hope that something isn't "the boat" :)
Technically the stock is acting exactly the way one would expect after a big run. It's backing, filling and testing the previous 50 dma and the previous breakout point. Even better is that as it was pointed out the retracement is on very low volume. Textbook TA playbook.
I hope you're correct about some sales being on the way. When it comes to these small companies, I believe it when I see it!!
The only thing that matters now is contracts. The stock will continue to get it's ass kicked until they announce some. The silence from the company is deafening.
All the buying dried up in a hurry...hope they step back up and this closes above $1, but not sure that's gonna happen. Every time it looks like it wants to go higher, the buying stops and it drops back below $1. Disappointing....
gdubya, I thought it would've happened already given that the fundamentals are seemingly stronger now than they were when they hit the previous highs since they now have independent 3rd party validation that the technology works from DNV, the technology transfer and share restructure with Norling is completed etc. Since those things didn't get it back to all-time highs as I had anticipated they would, I guess the market wants to see is signed contracts so my simple answer would be whenever they sign a decent. definitive contract.
Also, as I stated yesterday, they're also going to need to let investors and potential investors know how they plan to produce the DSOX systems that they'll hopefully sell. Knowing the anticipated cost of production once they've figured out how they'll produce the systems would be nice as well so we can to try to get some idea of what the margins will be. It's really hard to value a company appropriately without knowing what sort of income/loss they'll potentially be looking at...
Pietro, I've heard bad stories about companies operating out of Boca Raton as well which is one of the reasons I'm somewhat skeptical. I don't think I've ever owned one but I've definitely heard about them.
My next question, and one I don't believe they've addressed is if they're expecting a rapid influx of orders, which it seems that they should be since the new regulations go into effect in 2015 and they appear to be the only viable, cost-effective solution out there, how do they plan produce these DSOX systems? Will companies want to place orders for the system without knowing how the company plans to produce them? They have like $4 million currently available under a line of credit, so I'd assume they're going to have to outsource production. IMO there's no way they can outsource it to China because the technology would be stolen in a heartbeat, so I think management needs to tell us what the production plan is because it's a pretty important component of their future success.
There are just a lot more questions than answers right now and I would love for them to provide more details of their plan to have this thing hit the ground running...
Does anyone know if the DSOX system is ready to sell in it's current form? The PR's keep mentioning further modification and testing...