December preliminaries...

SYMBOL & IBD RATING
ADVP, A+
CECO, A+
CTSH, A+
CYTC, B-
FHRX, B-
IVGN, A
NTAP, A
OCR, A+
USON, B-


Allan

No hard feelings? Ken, don't think for a second that I hold these charts against you. No, no, no... the charts are great and I appreciate the fact that you took the time to look at this business. Your charts draw a clearer picture of the week to week goings on. You probably just saved me money.

Now, if you want to talk about hard feelings, let's discuss the 1975 Cinncinati Reds. Oh, let's not... 1967, 1975 & 1986, especially 1986, contain Octobers I'd rather forget.

Thanks for the chart. The hunt continues.

Allan

Those two charts don't seem to provide viable opportunities during November. That's odd.

Allan

Great!

Allan

Consider ELBO.

It has a 5-0 November track record. But it doesn't appear to begin its uptrend at the beginning of the month. According to charts I've seen, it appears to rise and fall in the beginning of the month before rising through the end of the month.

The reason why I bring this up is that it appears that many individuals here are looking to sell stocks around the middle of the month (ex. MANU, BVSN, etc.) I have intentions on selling SBUX.

I would like to reinvest the SBUX cash right away and ELBO fits my criteria of price and IBD rating etc. I bring it up because it will probably fit other individual's need and others may be willing to invest if it fits their criteria.

So with that, I submit ELBO as a stock for everybody to kick around as a middle of the month option. I don't know if it will work, but that's why I'm throwing it out there for review.

Thanks in advance for your consideration.

Allan

Well, they're going to bring a diesel down from Fort Pierce or some other point North of here.

From a style standpoint, I have looked around and have decided that the cars being produced today are boring to look at.

From a price/investment standpoint, I have decided that these companies want too much money for their product. Paying 20-35K for what is considered a good car is ridiculous.

So, I've decided to pay not a cent more than 5K for a vehicle that will last at least three years. If I find the right car, three years will be conservative. Styling in a 420SEL or larger for a few years is a thought I can live with. Lord knows I'm in the right market... Palm Beach area.

We'll see what the hunt brings. I've looked at 6 mercedes and have rejected all of them up to this point.

Nice job!

Allan

I bought 1,100 shares at an average of 12.85. A 25% increase should bring it up to approx 16.

But, if I look at the current price of 13.40 and figure an additional 25%, the target should be closer to 16.80.

Bottom line, I'll take between 16.25 & 16.50.

I feel good about this purchase and the potential.

Allan

Back to stocks...

I'm locked into...
KG
CUB

and of course SBUX.

Allan

Well, right now I'm not buying any thing.

I was looking at a 1987 Mercedes 420 SEL. Everything looked good until we got it up on the lift and realized that the exhaust system is on the brink of collapse. That will be an easy $2K. All the other negative stuff was minimal. I still have to contact the seller and tell them that I can't offer them anything close to their asking price. They want $5K.

So, the guys at the garage lent me a 1986 BMW 325i to see how I liked the fit. I thoroughly enjoyed it... 5 speed shift with the sun roof open, driving along the intra-coastal waterway across from Palm Beach. But, I realized that a 21 year old was starting to crawl out of my 44 year old body.

Down-shifting and weaving in and out along the boulevard in a bright red sports car is not what I need at this point in my life. Been there... done that. So I brought the car back and thanked them for the experience.

They are going to try to track down a Mercedes on a full platform for me over the week end. We'll see.

Allan

I'm going to keep it simple. I'm going to bail on MANU and FTUS sometime today.

I'll be invested in KG, CUB and SBUX for November.

It appears that keeping it simple has gotten me better results in the past. So, cutting down from a bunch of less expensive stocks to a few higher priced/rated stocks is going to be my direction.

OT: I may buy a car today. I should know by 9 am. I'll let you know how it goes.

Allan

I was going to write that they would present a lump sum that would be ridiculous and all you would have to do is be ready to refuse and not be angry because that's what they do.

They'll probably come back with a few more offers. None of them will come close to what you'll receive over the course of years to come. They obviously hope that a lump sum will cause you to jump. It makes people most short sighted individuals jump.

It will come to a point where you'll have to tell them that you aren't interested in their offers and that you'd appreciate not being harrassed any more. They hate the H word.

Be careful of discussing any relationships with them. Don't discuss your relationship with your wife, your doctors or your friends. They may try to bring these relationships up in conversation in an attempt to get an idea of your activity or try to get an inroad that they can exploit.

I hate to seem/be negative, but these individuals are not looking out for your best interest. As you know, they are representatives of the insurance company and their job is to SAVE THE COMPANY MONEY... and if they have to screw you to do it, so be it.

Make sure you get what you are due!!

Sorry about the length of this post and I apologize for the negative tone.

Allan
Disclosure: I've dealt with these guys before. Not big deal. If they don't get any nibbles they'll fish somewhere else.

Did you already call?

Remember FHRX (now sitting at 7.41)...

Its IBD rating has gone from a C+ to a B.

Earnings report is November 6th...

Allan

The more I read, the more I become a CUBs fan for November. The Red Sox will excuse my departure for the month. They won't need me back until spring training in March.

Allan

Speaking of SBUX...

I just saw that they came out with an October report just after the close. Overall net revenue up 30% and same store sales up 9%... blah, blah. Quarterly results are due out on November 13th.

Over the past two months, this is the only stock where I've stuck to the plan.

I bought on the last trading day in August @ 27.21. I've held it through September and October. My plan from the beginning has been to sell just prior to the earnings report. So far, so good.

To heck with Jackie Mason... I thought he 86'd a while ago.

Allan

Master Q,

I like CUB on the heels of FLIR.

Checked IBD and News.

I'll have to sell something by tomorrow to get in. I'll see how things play out.

Allan

Well, so much for discipline.

KG was one of the stocks I'm considering for November.

It has a 4-1 positive seasonal track record.
It's rise averages 31% in November.
It has a B+ rating (89) from IBD.
It sells over $7

Today it dropped approx 20% on what seems, on the surface, to be a fairly good earnings report. I sold MEDC, AMCC, at slight losses, to jump into KG.

So, I've gone from considering to owning.

I'm sitting on MANU & BVSN.

Allan

Like Fred Sanford... I'm waiting for the big one.

Allan

Has anybody who follows pc companies, caught wind of a SYX buyout in January?

Itemized list for Allan going into November...

-buy on the last trading day of the month
-go with good IBD ratings
-stay about $7
-don't OVER diversify
-plan the trade, trade the plan
-discipline, discipline, discipline, discipline...

Am I missing anything?

Ken, I'm still beside you on BVSN.

Allan

I bailed on FLIR today. Took 17% off theboard. That felt good.

I'm holding tight on BVSN.

Allan

MANU is going to give me a heart attack.

I saw that MANU had a good day yesterday. I'm waiting for a good pop. I'm in at 6.72.

Stilling holding BVSN, AMCC & FLIR for Oct. All are in positive range.

Holding SBUX til mid-Nov. (currently up 10%)

I sold DOX at +8.5%.

MEDC & IOX are down.

Thanks for re-enforcing the BUY day on the intro screen. It reaffirms to me the discipline required.

Allan

I am just poking my head out of the hole I dug myself into after last night loss to the Yankees.

Allan

News for FLIR holders...

FLIR Systems To Release Third Quarter Results On Wednesday, October 22, 2003; WebCast Set For 11:00 AM ET, 8:00 AM PT"

Allan

That sounds good to me. I think we have BVSN at about the same price (4.93). It's up 12% at this point.

I see that MANU drew back 2.5% today. Let's hope for bluer skies for this puppy.

Allan

My BVSN selling price is approx $6.95.

Thoughts?

Allan

Does anybody have a selling price for BVSN?

Allan

Results of this week's investigation.

After going through the Value Line/IBD/Thomsonfn info this is what I have for November. The following info is set up with the symbol followed by the IBD rating, followed by their seasonal record and then the seasonal advance for November.

AMZN A+ 4-2 17%
EBAY A+ 4-1 33%
SEAC B+ 5-1 14%
HOTT A+ 6-1 15%
FLWS C- 3-1 27% (Doesn't fit, but I like it. So much for discipline!)

Allan

What is your thoughts on tools to use, Allan?

Well, it needs to be clear that I am not even in the same ball park as you guys/gals when it comes to using these technical analysis tools.

Being a few months into this seasonal concept, here's what I can tell you I feel comfortable with.

Starting with reviewing the 100 Timely Stocks in Value Line (highest relative price performance in the next 12 months), I would see which of those companies have superb seasonal records plus A or B ratings with IBD.

Those that make the cut, should be charted and considered.

So combining the research and analysis available at Value Line and Investor's Business Daily, cross referenced with the past seasonal record from Thomsonfn and then pinpointed with your bi-weekly charts seems like a good plan to me.

(I highlighted the word relative because according to Bollinger on Bollinger Bands relative is key when it comes to price performance. I'm sure you all realize that but like I say, I'm learming.)

Thoughts?

Allan

Allan this chart's for you.

Thank you very much.

ARTG is coming back...Sorry, Allan. I know you had this puppy.

I passed on that.

Just looking at what I do have, the 2 stocks that were bought early (meaning late September) are still down, but are coming back. I've learned my lesson there.

The other 4 that were purchased at the end of the first trading day in October were up 4.9% at the end of the day yesterday. ... (after some calculating)... but today they are up 2.5%. Yep, down 2.4% today. They'll be back.

I'm content at this point and looking forward to the middle and end of the month when some of the earnings reports will be out.

BVSN was purchased the first day of October @ 4.93. At 5.25, it is currently up 6.49%. So far that's the biggest % gainer. Nice call.

I'm most interested in seeing where DOX ends up in comparison to CTSH. DOX is rated as a C+ with IBD as opposed to an A+ for CTSH. CTSH had a timeliness of 1 on September 9. So, I'm going to see how that pans out, hoping to be able to pull different resources together in order to make an educated decision. BTW, it was Q's suggestion on the fool that caused me to haul my butt down to the library and investigate Value Line. Many thanks... as a matter of fact... many thanks to all.

That's enough babbling.

Allan

OK, does anybody have a suggestion for an alternative site? I went to the yahoo finance site only to find that their tracker required Windows. Any other thoughts?

Allan

Is anybody else running into difficulty getting seasonal info from Thompsonfn?

Allan

I'm shifting sights to November.

Allan

The prices are a very good addition to the monthly picks. Excellent idea!!

Allan

I'm unfamiliar with a "Bowser Pick"... I hope it's good.

Allan

I'm ready for the next roller coaster ride!!

AMCC
BVSN
DOX
FLIR
IOX
MEDC

- BVSN added to the list that I'm gonna run with this month
- BBBY has been sold... ouch
- will hold ICUI through the end of Oct
- SBUX continues to rise... slightly

Allan