Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
So the MM has just been accumulating shares for a big order the last couple of weeks? lol
HDY always entertaining...
Cash, I was/am concerend about the statement issued when the FM was lifted. Specifically
Lil slow today eh?
Had a div burning a hole in my pocket so thought i'd pick up a couple of extra shares. Things look right to make a move one way or the other. Took half an hr to cross a small trade.
Looks like everyone has what they want and just waiting it out. LOL
Oh, and while I'm here did anyone note that the West Leo is moving back over to Jubilee field?
2014-07-2215:06 CDT ETA changed New ETA: 2014-07-07 20:14 UTC
2014-07-2215:06 CDT Destination changed New destination: GHANA JUBILEE FIELD
Someone mention this stock can see volume spikes out of nowhere on occassion????
Would like to retract part that last comment. Appearantly Dr. Ibrahima Soumah was a mines minister under Conte. FWIW
I ran this quote by my West African associate, who is a native French speaker. He interprets it as saying that they (the government) are having troubles applying the rules as written, and that RUSAL and Hyperdynamics are not following the procedures.
Without context, it is difficult to say what this means.
I have had some enlightening conversations with him regarding regional politics, which sometimes border on comical. It should be noted that these comments come from a FORMER minister. Could this be the same one that threw the President under the bus for channeling funds to his election campaign?
I remain concerned, but do not give too much credibility to the report.
JMHO
...and paying out what's left of the cash to keep officers from jumping ship. (until the cash is all gone)
Nice, Thanx!
Tullow presentation. So I got hung up and missed the presentation portion, although there doesn't seem i missed anything.
And they shoot themselves in the other foot...
http://news.yahoo.com/guinea-opposition-quits-parliament-promises-demos-152010145.html
Nice to see some positive action on the chart again. I was beginning to think I may have pulled the trigger too soon when it reached my 2.50 target, but volume was so low something had to give.
As I mentioned before, Tullow is still on the hook to spud in a fixed time frame, unless that was negotiated away in return for lifting the FM, so I'll be curious to see what unfolds (if anything) in the next couple of weeks.
So "resumption of petroleum operations" was made "conditional". So effectively operations are still suspended for the same reasons as under the Force Majeure, only now there is no FM and the clock is running. The subtlty escapes me unless agreements have already been made and simply require confirmation.
Prior to the Force Majeure declaration Tullow was contractually obligated to make "best efforts" to spud a well by April 2014. For arguments sake lets call that April 31st. The Force Majeure was lifted after 54 days during which time the contract was suspended. My fuzzy math says they are contractually obligated to make "best efforts" to spud a well before June 27th now.
It's possible that the lifting of the FM was "negotiated". Since nothing was announced publicly, I have no choice but to presume the obligation still exists.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't bribery and graft misdemeanors in west Africa?
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Thanks for all your research in these matters!
And back out. I couldn't resist a double in under 7hrs on the shares I bought this morning. Will wait for this to settle out a bit. Still have my long core (above water on paper now!).
Think the rats will start looking for the door in another hour or so, do want to get caught up in that....
I'm going to go out on a limb here and call this the long awaited short squeeze. Serious volume and a good chance Tullow caught the shorts as off guard as they did the longs on the last announcement. Of course it could just be everbody clawing to get back in enhanced by a bunch of machine trades
I would think that there are many who didn't think the FM would get resolved until the DOJ acted (if ever).
Remarkable how much volume can be moved without a corresponding significant price move. Especially when you mutiply by 8......
Another "fun" morning on the HDY charts. Whew, I'm getting too old for this (not). Picked up a few add shares in pre-mkt. Not a lot, but added to the position I had already bought back previously. Who knows, maybe I'll be able to use some of that loss I booked this year.
Not holding my breath. Negotiations will probably take quite some time before we get another drill date. Still thinking it might be the west Leo due to the nature of the drill. GLTA
No land based reports, don't have access to sattelite AIS anymore.
Ships without events within the last 24 hours
ER AALESUND
Last seen: 2014-03-29 13:25 CDTLocation: Takoradi, GH
Destination: WEST LEO
ETA: 2014-04-01 21:00 CDT
ER NARVIK
Last seen: 2014-03-19 13:36 CDTLocation: Takoradi, GH
Destination: WEST LEO
ETA: 2014-04-06 04:45 CDT
WEST LEO
Last seen: 2014-03-28 06:47 CDTLocation: Gulf of Guinea, GH
Destination: GHANA TANO FIELD
ETA: 2014-12-20 14:13 CST
You are receiving this e-mail because you enabled the daily report function on your FleetMon.com
Well I partially reloaded this morning. The difference between today's opening and .60 is spit in the ocean on my losses. So I'm back in if anything unexpected (good unexpected) happens. Since the wash sale period expired for me, I now have enough losses booked to cover any possible profits I may make for a while. (is that a silver lining?)
I'll wait for lower prices before I reinvest my "profits" from this swing trade...
GLTA
Let's change the hypothetical to make it a little more applicable. Let's say you are a subcontractor who has been hired to paint the exterior of the building by the end of the month or lose the contract for all of the owners' buildings. Do you go ahead and paint the building, knowing that you may not get paid but can still file a lien on the property (although said property may have no value)....
How it's going to play out (a totally fictional account)
The parties will meet and arbitrate a settlement. The statement will say that they have agreed to postpone work to allow a reasonable amount of time for the DOJ investigation to be completed. If no charges are brought Tullow will reimburse HDY for operating expenses during the delay.
What this will really mean is that Tullow needs to develop and monetize some assets to better position itself before the next major exploration. They know that the pending investigation does not functionally prevent them from upholding their commitments, but they also hold the keys to the gold. They are willing to give up some gold if HDY will play along. How they sell this to ROG I have no idea.
I was actually referring to the (however paltry)revenue that HDY was generating for D&T You know, the cash burn? But good one
I'm thinking that HDY does not generate enough revenue for D&T to justify all the photocopying required to answer all the information requests from DOJ and ambulance chasers. Maybe Watts could hook them up with a deal on used office equipment.
As far as weak internal controls, this could be simmply a matter of small company staffing. There may not be enough people in positions of authority to provide redundant oversights. But that's merely speculation on my part. (seen it before tho...)
Curious action. Reminds me of the "good old days" when the stock price would jump right before a PR. I wonder if someone is privvy to forthcoming announcements, but not their content LOL.
The DOJ has used an attempt to hide or obstruct wrongdoing after the fact to extend the tolling of the 5yr statute. However, in this case (as far as we've been told) it doesn't look like any criminal act would be likely. More probable is "improper accounting" or such IMHO.
West Leo has moved from Jubilee field back over to Tano field over the weekend. Theoretically this should be HDY's drill slot, unless they had another quickee workover planned before moving to Guinea in really late April.
If they proceeed with additional projects at Tano this functionally puts us out another 30 days minimum no matter what transpires in between. I suspect it will be much longer but JMHO....
Yes, I suspect that is flawed data. Yahoo is primarily "scripted" stats. As the amount shown would be over 50% of the issued shares and we've never had over 40% institional ownership, I'm going to say this number is skewed by the reverse split.
You won't get an update until there is something to update. Gov't of Guinea has to respond to FM, that will be a procedural cluster. Tullow will have to respond to HDY with details. If the FM was indeed a stall tactic (in my opnion it is) then they will probably drag their feet.
How I see it playing out: Tullow drags it feet, plays the supportive injured party card until they get the time they want and agree to a revised drilling schedule "As soon as is practical".
If they can't buy the time they need, they force HDY and ROG into arbitration and drag that out until they get the time they need.
If, by some miracle, the DOJ/SEC resolve their issues in a timely manner. Tullow will claim they have already restructured their drilling program thus gaining the time they need.
-see where this is going? Tullow is not going to drill until they are ready to. Any updates are just formalities.
<edit> If you see an announcement that Tullow has finally closed a farmout deal on their TENS project, expect things to suddenly resolve favorably.
Look at the bright side, if it drops below 35M cap by the end of May (and no reason it shouldn't), we don't have to go through that whole Russell Index fiasco all over again....
(edit) Nevernind day behind again EOM
Yes, but it kind of ties their hands. If the investigation drags out they have to hold out to save face (so to speak) but they could kill the golden goose in the process. Pretty high risk move even for an oil exploration co.
Yes the list of possibilities gets narrower as information is revealed. I kind of discount the Tullow takeover theories but if you include them:
a: Tullow buy out or merger. Doesn't bode well if the new ownership wanted them to hold off on Guinea.
b: Tullow threatened with a hostile takeover. Circling the wagons on short notice and can't tell the partners due to confidentiality. Seems a little more plausible.
c: Tullow wants to prioritize producing assets/ under pressure to perform financialy. Plausible but why cold shoulder the partners?
So far I haven't hit on anything that passes the sniff test... hence proceeding with extreme caution.
A bit of background on why we find ourselves here...
So there is a DOJ investigation. IMHO this is an offshoot of some other investigation as that would be DOJ's normal MO. I sincerly doubt that this started by some out of the blue informant or tipster with alterior motives. HDY is commonly mentioned in the media hand in hand with the BSG investigation and it would not surprise me if there are not more than a few "common players" between the 2 companies and the government of Guinea. It's a small country.
An example is this article, which also might explain the departure of the last Minister of Mines in Guinea. (poor form to throw the President under the bus)
http://www.newsbase.com/newsbasearchive/news/afroil.pdf
"BSG also made reference to an alleged loan-for-asset deal by a
company, Palladino Capital 2. According to South Africa’s Mail &
Guardian newspaper, the company lent money to Guinea to create a
new state-run mining company but this cash, according to an
opponent of Conde, went to finance the president’s electoral
campaign. The Israeli company also complained of interference from George Soros and Global Witness.
The Mail & Guardian’s source was Guinea’s former mining minister,
Mahmoud Thiam, who had led the negotiations under which
Hyperdynamics relinquished two thirds of its acreage in 2009-10."
The US government for it's part has had long standing concerns FCPA concerns with HDY's operations as documented in these leaked cables:
Harry Briers Meeting Feb 5 2009
https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09CONAKRY95_a.html?Cached
Ray Leanord Meeting sept 14 2009
https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09CONAKRY559_a.html?Cached
The fact that neither government has acted up to this point; the fact that the PSA has been renogiated and ratified in good faith; and the distant time frame for the allegations (I don't even remember things from last year) lend themselves to the argument that HDY is no danger of loosing their lease over these allegations.
In that resepct I feel that Tullows assertion of FM is pretty much baseless and IMHO a business tactic of some nature.
Well, Tullow has now put the ROG in an awkward position. If the gov't of Guinea opposes the FM and comes out in support of HDY and their PSA; and later the the DOJ does slap some type of fine or penalty on HDY; then the poiticians who supported the PSA will get hammered by their political foes for supporting a corrupt venture (whether it is or not) as this is a hot button topic in Guinea politics. More on the actual investigation later....
I'm sorry but all I got from this morning's PR was that legal fees will increase for the xx consecutive quarter. Standard protocal is to request details from the declaring party. HDY has formally done that now. We are still at Tullows mercy somewhat to respond. If they dont to, or aren't capable of drilling at this time, we will continue to wait. Hopefully this does not escalate to another legal battle, but I still have concerns.
I'm of the same thinking, but have to take exception to your 3rd point. I am of the belief that this is all about the TENS project. Tullow had slated the West Leo for 20 infill wells during 2014 on this prospect area. They are also actively seeking a farm down in exchange for a full carry to first oil.
They are in need of revenues from this area and would certainly prioritize it over a wildcat exploration well. The kind of work described is more than a delay in a rig schedule, it's a postponement.
If they had offered HDY a carry on expenses during the delay it could have probably been worked out, but they threw their partner under the bus.
The non claiming parties have the right to demand details and the claiming party must respond within a reasonable time. This buys Tullow some breathing room and means we won't hear anything from Ray for awhile.
As far as a legitimate reason for the action? There has been NO injunction, NO indictment, NO restraint filed, and NO accusations made. It is a stretch to see how the Stated Cause is preventing the Operator from fulfilling there duties under the contract with the Leaseholder. Then they would need to explain why there were no contingencies for such as to make it unforseeable (ever read a HDY 10K?)
All of the above just my opinion......
That's a dangerous game of brinksmanship you propose, that could well backfire. It may force some hands I'm just not certian who's.....
One of the most interesting components of this action is it's suddenness. HDY stock price usually moves a couple days in advance on any PR, no matter how mundane. Whenever there isa developement the stock action will provide a tell 3 days to 3 months in advance. This event seems to have caught all flat footed.
I don't believe there have been any sudden developments in the DOJ INVESTIGATION ( I emphasize investigation as that is all it is at this point) because, quite frankly, those are poorly kept secrets by their nature of all the different parties involved. I may yet be proven wrong on this one.
I can't help but feel this is posturing by Tullow and I really wonder why something couldn't have been worked out without it coming to this point.
With the political climate in Guinea, this could cost HDY dearly, and would hardly benefit Tullow as the impropriety would be obvious if they were to pick up the pieces. If Tullow, or another partner wanted a bigger slice there are more certain and economically feasable methods to that end.
I just keep coming back to Tullow priortizing their Ghana assets over their partnership agreement. This had to be an autonomous action by Tullow. And that is bad business no matter what excuse you hide behind. <end rant>