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Iclusig s@&ting the bed pretty much humped me good.
This is just the cherry on top Roy.
The decision to bring back Iclusig with a T315I label was a no brainier IMO.
I guessed wrong on how soon, I needed another 5 days for the wash rule to kick in.
Understood. I had my doubts about the CV profile as well, but unfortunately for me, I chose to spend more time proving my point than mitigating my risk.
As they say, you can't put the s%#t back in the horse.
They did that because they were dicking around trying to obtain that one dose for all (Alk and Egfr)
They wasted months and came up blank.
It is a shame because this drug (ponatinib) could have been something significant in the hands of competent drug developer. Aria clearly effed this up and now the company and its shareholders are decimated.
Saddest part is that there are patients that this drug could have truly helped.
JQ
I usually find your posts some if the most informative on the board/twitter. However, I really don't need a lecture from you. I am not claiming a conspiracy. Actually quite the opposite. Is someone out there doing better/deeper dd than me?
If I am correct, you did extensive research into the AE's AND WENT LONG when the valuation came down some. Someone else does the same dd (perhaps not even as good as you) and decided to go/stay short???? Yes that makes a market, but they spoke as if they knew something everyone else didn't.
So, was it possible that short sellers were able to see this data before hand LEGALLY. Is there a way for them to request it. No conspiracy theories. They won, I lost. I tip my hat.
So you bet millions of dollars on the hope maybe something will blow up?
That's one of your weaker arguments. Where they able to see the events though some sort of freedom of information?
As a former shareholder who has been beat up pretty good, I have 2 burning questions that hopefully you (or someone else) can help me with:
How much and when did Ariad know about these AE's?
Was there anyway for outsiders (ie short sellers) to know about these issues prior to the FDA disclosure?
Ariad management has a lot of splaining to do. Short sellers sure acted like they knew something everyone else didn't.
Thanks
Even a new trial for the T315 patients?
That seems excessive.
Roy may be gloating and enjoying this Epic collapse a little too much, however he is correct that Berger must go.
Their/his handling of this drug has been incompetent at best. At worst, he has been deceitful.
My guess is that Icahn's boy (or someone else) is not going to take this too well. He will probably have double down at some point and look to take control of the board. Aria will eventually be sold at a fraction of what it was once worth.
The T315 market and 113 have some value left for this company. Who knows, in the hands of some competent drug developer, Ponatinib could end up being a fairly relevant CML drug again. Berger has proven he is incapable. My guess is he's probably in shock and denial still to this day. I do not think he is capable of being objective about his baby.
My heart goes out to some of the older longs who lost a lot of money here. You're never going to get it back. That really sucks, but it is just money. Try to put it past you and move on as best you can. That's what I have had to do.
Correct me if I am wrong, Aria and its shareholders lost approx 2.5 bil in MC due mainly to the fact that approx an additional 17-18 pts (who were very sick and pretreated with Gleevec/Tasigna/Sprycel) developed AT.
And there no way to qualify G/T/S contribution to the events, correct?
If I were a BP I would make a 2 bil hostile offer (if necessary) and run all Ponatinib trials at 30/15 mg (45 where necessary) and you would have a very nice ROI in a reasonable time.
Disclosure: I am out of Ariad
Really? Are we reading the same set of data? I think they stack up very well and they have BTD.
Quit dreaming for a minute and be objective.
Alk + results look good (especially the 80% brain mets). Unfortunately Alk + has gotten crowded with LDK and the Chugai drug getting BTD (Chugai with brain mets) and its going to be a dog fight for Ariad.
I suspect its going to come down to Ariad and Chugai fighting it out for BIC in Alk +. I don't think LDK is tolerable enough at the dosage needed to get the responses seen in the other two.
Yikes! Thanks, I guess I need another cup of coffee.
Now the Gleevec hat gets thrown in with the other "dirty drug" TKI's. ASH is going to be some don't miss TV.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/13996351/ns/health-cancer/t/cancer-drug-may-cause-heart-damage/#.Uj5hFxa6-5Q
EDIT: just realized the date is 8/22 not 9/22 so it's not exactly breaking news but still significant to the discussion of Ponatinib having CV risk
Do you think the ASH MD Andersen results will give a good look at safety or is it too soon to tell?
I think a better short argument would be one calling Aria out for stacking the deck rather than claiming Iclusig has significant CV risk.
1.9 bil MC was pretty lofty for 4 pr's no?
Are you saying the launch has been disappointing?
Congrats to the ASTX holders.
Nice trade
Perfect! That frees up plenty of cash to buy Ariad when Epic renders Tasigna worthless.
<kidding> <mostly>
Yeh she really nailed the Ariad run huh?
The Ziop bulls banked their bet on Kirk pushing in as well. That didn't turn out so good (as of yet).
No prob. I can see now how my post could be taken differently than I intended.
Good luck to us all.
My comment was meant as a joke to Don because he has been one of the most informed and reasonable longs for quite some time.
All jokes aside, since the approval and black box label Aria has seriously underperformed during one of the best biotech bull markets in recent history. In addition, I argue that Aria is actually starting to look like a value in this market. My best example is Clvs and it's 2+ bil MC from a early 4 patient trial. Cldx is another rather lofty one as well.
I've enjoyed the ride from 08, so you are preaching to the choir. Since Dec, this stock has been awful. No denying that.
FYI, I am pretty sure the next 6 months to a year are going to be very exciting for shareholders. The last 6 have SUCKED!
Please tell me ole wise soothsayer, why with all these great, potentially monster catalysts, does Aria stock SUCK so much these days?
What's your take on that JQ? I am guessing that MD is looking to see if 30 mg in the front line gets the response without the side effects of 45 mg.
Do you really think that this will deter the filthy animals from engaging in sleezeball tactics in the future?
I don't fwiw
My bad was referring to the NICE denial for Bosulif
CHMP has not been kind to PFE lately huh?
Thanks. I meant profits.
Peter does pcyc keep 50% of all ww Ibrutinib sales?
I know it's been stated here before, but Iclusig's "3rd line" designation and the fact that no other TKI hits the T315 might help get it past NICE.
All Ariad investors have to do is sit quiet and wait for the data and stop the silly conspiracy theories. It's embarrassing.
The one thing does surprise me in this whole equation is how much credence the onc doc's have supposedly given to Bosulif. It's not just this CS report, but across the board. If true, it makes me question the supposed CML professionals. Do they look at the data?
Via twitter: Credit Suise initiates Aria with a neutral and a $22 target.
Citing an internal survey that predicts an uphill battle for Iclusig.
Anyone have CS research?
Seems like there has been other interest of TKI use in PD that I was not aware of.
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2013/05/09/potential-treatment-for-parkinsons-alzheimers-dementia-discovered/
If I might borrow one from the late-great Rick James, that Ponatinib is a hell of a drug!
I think it's probably the effect of the Stevie award is finally settling in to investors